CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020700060001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 15, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
State Dept. review completed
15 December 1971
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No. 0299/71
15 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Indian artillery is shelling Dacca.
Page 1)
YUGOSLAVIA: Political turmoil continues in Croatia.
(Page 4)
EC: Agreement on fishing rights clears way for UK,
Denmark, and Ireland to sign accession treaty.
(Page 5)
BURMA: Communist insurgents maintain pressure in
northeast. (Page 7)
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ECUADOR: Weakness of Velasco government precludes
compromise with US on fisheries. (Page 9)
USSR: Relief force of submarines apparently en
route to Mediterranean (Page 10)
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SECRET
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I N D""I
EAST\4PAKI TA-N+`-
Ashugan'
Pabna Bh aefs,
ushtia ? Jaj debp ingdiAgartala
DACCA ,,Ma ura '
g ' Paudkahtiffilfte ? omilla
7 'Jessore Ghandpu
Cox's Bazar.
4 Indian advance
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C
INDIA-PAKISTAN: The Indians began shelling
military targets in Dacca yesterday as their armored
and infantry units probed the city's outer defense
perimeter. Although the Indians now claim to have
sealed off all escape routes from the capital, they
may be holding off storming it for the moment in
hopes that the Pakistanis will decide to give up in-
stead of making a bloody last-ditch stand. The In-
dians claim that some Pakistani troops around the
city have already surrendered.
.In Dacca itself, meanwhile, the civil adminis-
tration has virtually collapsed. Governor Malik
resigned yesterday and joined other high Islamabad-
appointed officials in seeking Red. Cross protection
at the International Hotel, which the Indians recog-
nize as a neutral zone.
:Indian forces have reportedly advanced to about
eight miles from Chittagong, East Pakistan's most
important port. The Indians claim they are giving
the city a heavy pounding from the air and sea.
Elsewhere in the province, some Pakistani forces
continue to hold a few isolated spots. Where the
Indians are now in firm control refugees are be-
ginning to trickle back to their homes from India.
According to a representative of the UN High Com-
mission for Refugees, 30,000 people have returned
so far, most of them heads of family who are explor-
ing conditions.
According to the Indian press, New Delhi has
agreed to send civil servants into East Pakistan to
help the new Bangla Desh government set up an ad-
ministrative network there. The US Consulate in
Calcutta believes that although Bangla Desh author-
ities recognize the need for personnel, their re-
quest for Indian aid is also motivated by a desire
to prevent radical groups from seizing control in
many areas where the administrative structure has
lapsed.
(continued)
15 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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Kabul;
AFGHA$ISTAN
i-eroze
WEST I \A ~'
Karachi
Nayachcr
yderabad
o/
PAKISTAN Fazilka
ultan
4' Indian activity
4- Pakistani activity
-- Road
Railroad
mbala
50 100
Miles
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On the western, front, the situation remains
largely unchanged. Except for patrolling and some
small-unit clashes, there was little fighting any-
where except in the Sialkot sector where the Indians
said they were trying to capture the town of Shakar-
garh, ten miles over the border.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to recon-
vene at 1030 EST today. The only draft resolution
formally before the Council is a Polish one that
calls for the freeing of Mujibur Rahman and for a
settlement recognizing that a majority in East
Pakistan supports him politically.. It is a non-
starter, because the Chinese have already said
they will veto it. A British draft that may be
offered today could have.a somewhat better chance
for Security Council approval. It calls for im-
mediate.cease-fires in East and West Pakistan and
Kashmir and for negotiations that would lead to a
political settlement supported by a majority in
East Pakistan. The UK resolution does not deal
with the withdrawal issue.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YUGOSLAVIA: Resignations and calls for addi-
tional expulsions from the party are pouring in all
over Croatia and the purge of nationalists shows no
sign of abating.
Top levels of the Croatian party apparently are
having difficulty adjusting to the situation. The
central committee on Monday failed to agree on a
telegram to Tito reporting the results of its plenum,
which accepted Tito's criticism at last week's fed-
eral party plenum. This indecision may end as new
:Leaders begin to assert themselves.
The new leadership in Zagreb seems to be made
up of Tito supporters. It is headed by party presi-
dent Mrs. Milka Planinc, an education specialist
from the pre-reform era; party secretary Josip
Vrhovec, an ex-partisan and inflexible ideologist;
and executive bureau member Milan Miskovic, an ex-
federal secretary for internal affairs who aided
Tito in ousting the Rankovic faction from the fed-
eral party in 1966. Miskovic's brother Ivan serves
as Tito's special adviser on internal security.
C There were additional outbreaks of hostility
toward the new conservative republican regime.
Four hundred students rioted for the second night
in Zagreb and two more Croatian student leaders
were arrested in Split. ] Tito, over the past week-
end, briefed a group of generals led by Defense
Minister Ljubicic on the current political situa-
tion. Tito often has used this device in periods
of stress--for instance, at the time of his break
with Stalin in 1948.
15 Dec '71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EC: The agreement on national fishing rights
reaches on 12 December has cleared the way for the
'UK, Denmark, and Ireland to sign the EC accession
treaty by mid-January.
The agreement, largely forged by the UK, allows
the maintenance of exclusive national fishing rights
within a six-mile limit that may be extended to 12
miles in specified areas where fishing is the main
industry. These provisions will continue in force
for a "transition" period of ten years after which
the EC will review the entire agreement.
Norway, Europe's leading fishing nation, re-
jected the agreement and will probably not sign the
accession treaty with the other three candidates.
The Norwegians seek a special protocol to allow
protection of their fishing rights beyond the tran-
sition period. Oslo still hopes, however, to con-
tinue negotiations and to sign the accession treaty
soon.
Although the ratification process will take
most of next year, UK cooperation with the EC is
rapidly increasing. At the meeting of the Group
of Ten finance ministers in Rome in early December,
Britain carefully concerted its position with that
of the Six, and it has endorsed the position the
EC has taken on the upcoming trade negotiations
with the US. The UK also joined with the EC mem-
bers in coordinating action in the UN on the debate
on the Middle East this week.
15 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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AREA
OF MAP
I~list''
rgent
~tivity
A
Tachilek
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BURMA: Communist insurgents continue to exert
heavy pressure in the northeast.
The district town of Kunlong has been isolated
since the outbreak of fighting in late November,
and government reinforcements so far have failed
to open the road into the town from the west. Other
Burmese outposts in the area also have been hit, and
the government has sustained over 100 casualties.
Government commanders, evidently believing that the
insurgents hope to take Kunlong to expand the con-
trol they already have over the area east of the
Salween River, are determined to hold the town.
Rangoon, nonetheless, is attempting to minimize
the seriousness of the tactical situation and its
effect on Burmese relations with China. Deputy
Prime Minister San Yu has told the US ambassador
that the Communists do not have sufficient logistic
support for sustained operations and that there has
been some diminution in Chinese logistic support
for them since General Ne Win's visit to Peking in
August. San Yu admitted that the insurgency situa-
tion had not changed fundamentally, suggesting that
the Kunlong fighting has tempered Rangoon's optimis-
tic expectations that the restoration of relations
with Peking, would diminish Chinese support for the
insurgents.
15 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ECUADOR: Internal pressures have weakened the
Velasco government to a point that it fears to com-
promise in its fisheries negotiations with the US.
In conversations this week with US officials,
the Ecuadoreans have refused either to establish
some sort of escrow fund for the license fees and
fines or to give assurances against a resumption of
seizures of US boats when the next fishing season
opens on 1 January. The 78-year-old President
Velasco said that such accommodation of US inter-
ests would mean the end of his political career.
The most important pressure comes from the
armed forces. Their leaders, already displeased
with Velasco for meeting with Fidel Castro in
Guayaquil earlier this month, would see any com-
promise on fishing regulations as dimming the pres-
tige they have gained from the navy's role in
seizing US tuna boats.
Other pressures stem from the government's
precarious financial situation. Teachers are al-
ready on strike in Guayaquil because of arrears in
salary payments, and other labor disputes threaten
to boil over.
General elections are scheduled for June, and
the campaign is due to begin next month. Velasco
clearly fears that any apparent weakness in the
face of US interests would undermine his administra-
tion to the extent that the military might step in
before the electoral process is completed. As a
result, a continued firm position and more seizures
of boats can be expected.
15 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR: A relief force of eight F-class attack
submarines and a J-class cruise missile submarine
now off the Norwegian coast apparently is en route
to the Mediterranean. These diesel submarines from
the Northern Fleet are being accompanied by a tender
and will probably reach the Mediterranean near the
end of December. A similar submarine force has been
in the Mediterranean nearly five months, a normal
15 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
Secret
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