CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020700070001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 16, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N 042
State Dept. review completed
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No. 0300/71
16 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: India agrees to cease-fire in East,
provided Pakistanis surrender. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist preparations for wide-
spread military activity. (Page 3)
THAILAND: Sharp upturn in Communist insurgency in
north. (Page 5)
YUGOSLAVIA: Party purge may be expanding into high
levels of Croatian government. (Page 7)
JORDAN-FEDAYEEN: Attempted assassination of Jor-
danian ambassador underlines Fatah's ambition to
eliminate Jordanian regime. (Page 8)
USSR--EGYPT: Cairo may purchase Soviet civil air-
craft. (Page 9)
CHILE: Demonstrations may result in violence
Page 10)
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B H U T A N
Tangail
EAST.PAKISTAN
I N D'I A
Kushtla ? Jaydebpuri in
IDACCIA .Agartala 01, , 0 .
ma ura
g Daudkan i ? omilla
cutta
Chandpur'; -\
Cox's Bazar.
+. Indian advance
Chittagong'
BURMA
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C INDIA-PAKISTAN: Indian Chief of Staff Manekshaw
agreed yesterday to Pakistan's request for a cease-
fire in East Pakistan, provided that the Pakistani
troops there surrender. Manekshaw, who is in radio
contact with the Pakistani commander in Dacca, said
that if no agreement had been reached by 2230 EST
last night he would order a resumption of Indian
air attacks on the city, which were suspended yes-
terday. The Pakistani commander, General Niazi,
was hoping to avoid surrendering in the usual sense.
He wanted to be allowed to withdraw his men with
their arms to certain areas agreeable to the Indians,
to be followed by their repatriation to West Paki-
stan. The Indians, however, appeared unlikely to
grant such conditions. As of 2300 last night there
was no information, on further developments.
On the East Pakistan battlefront, Indian artil-
lery continues to shell Dacca. New Delhi said yes-
terday that its forces were closing in further on
the city from all directions and in some cases had
taken positions about a mile from the city. The
Indians also claimed they had advanced to within
three miles of the port city of Chittagong and were
making headway against Pakistani troops who were
still resisting at a few places elsewhere in the
province.
In the West, the Indians reportedly bombed
Karachi yesterday for the first time in several
days. Lahore was also attacked from the air. Land
and air action was reported at several other places
on the western front, but there apparently were no
important new gains by either side.
Anti-American demonstrations are continuing
in Indian cities. There were six such demonstra-
tions in Calcutta on 14 December, the largest with
about 2,000 participants. More such actions are
expected in Calcutta over the next few days. Ac-
cording to US officials in the city, the demonstra-
tions reflect a popular rather than merely a partisan
16 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C mood, and the attitude of the demonstrators is the
angriest seen there in the past two years. A number
of anti-US demonstrations also took place yesterday
in New Delhi, including one in which a number of
members of Parliament of various political persua-
sions protested in front of the US Embassy.
16 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist forces are preparing
for widespread military activity in the coming weeks.
Numerous signs point to stepped-up shellings,
limited ground assaults, and attempts to interdict
major highways. Directives to enemy troops call for
offensive operations to commemorate several Communist
holidays--including the llth anniversary of the Na-
tional Liberation Front--which fall in late Decem-
ber. Enemy operations in the next few weeks prob-
ably will not exceed the intensity of the winter
campaign last year; then as now the Communists were
employing economy--of-force tactics and the govern-
ment's counter-operations prevented any serious de-
terioration of security in the countryside.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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THAILAND: A sharp upturn in insurgency in the
north emphasizes the growing capabilities of the
Communists in that area.
In a series of skillfully conducted ambushes,
Communist insurgents have demonstrated sophisticated
tactics and the ability to employ relatively large
units. The Communists initiated three separate in-
cidents on 6 December along crucial routes in Nan
and Chiang Rai provinces and later conducted a day-
light ambush on the important Tak - Mae Sot highway
in Tak Province. Government casualties totaled
104. The ambushes, plus increased harassment of
road-building crews, suggest a growing focus on in-
terdiction of major roads.
The insurgency in the north is the most rapidly
expanding in the country and has superseded the
longer-lived one in the northeast as the most wor-
risome to the Thai Government. The number of insur-
gents in the north has increased by some 400 to 800
over the past year to a total of 2,300 to 2,700.
They are supported by a regional command in a Commu-
nist-controlled section of Laos, and they are being
outfitted with bloc weapons. Although originally
concentrating on subversion of hill tribes long neg-
lected by the Thai Government, over the past year
they have penetrated into Thai-populated lowlands
contiguous to their mountain base areas. These for-
ays until recently have been limited to recruitment,
propaganda, and acquisition of supplies. The tem-
porary seizure of a lowland village astride a main
road in Nan Province in late November may portend an
effort to expand base areas into the lowlands.
Thai counter-insurgency efforts in the north
have been hampered by the difficulty of the terrain
and the wariness of hill tribesmen. Even well-
executed operations have later been nullified by
the failure to maintain a government presence. The
Thai Government recently decided to emphasize small-
unit operations, saturation patrolling, and frequent
contacts with rural villages but, like previous tac-
tical improvements, this decision. may suffer in im-
plementation.
16 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YUGOSLAVIA
M CONT EN~L G F20
Titograd
H E R C E G 0 V I NA
Sarajevo
Tirane
ALBANIA
Republic boundary
Autonomous area boundary
,Skopje
M A :E00N t`
Sofia*
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YUGOSLAVIA: The purge of nationalists in the
party apparatus may soon be extended into the top
levels of the Croatian government.
Croatian Republic Premier Dragutin Haramija's
public defense of ousted party leader Mrs. Savka
Dabcevic-Kucar two days after she lost her office
is a direct challenge to Tito's authority and may
cost Hararnija his job. Haramija also came close
to admitting that there have been cases of police
brutality when he admonished police to be mindful
of legal curbs on actions they take against pro-
testers. The US Consulate in Zagreb notes that the
republic's cabinet offices are unusually busy and
that personnel changes in the government may be im-
minent.
The mood in Zagreb is despondent. The consulate
reports that the demonstration on Tuesday night ap-
peared somewhat larger than official estimates of
400 rioters. Police brutality and arrests--some-
times of innocent, bystanders--have not intimidated
the student demonstrators who are displaying posters
denouncing the new Croat party leadership as "im-
posed dictators."
Some of these leaders, sensitive to charges
that they have been imposed on the party apparatus
by a heavy-handed., autocratic act on Belgrade's
part, are hinting that Tito's intervention in re-
public affairs was necessary to forestall Soviet
involvement.
A purge psychosis is beginning to surface in
other parts of Yugoslavia, possibly because party
hacks long out of favor sense an opportunity to
regain influence and to even old scores. In the
Kosovo, local party meetings on Monday and Tuesday
denounced the provincial party's handling of na-
tionalism within Pristina University and other
political bodies. In Macedonia,, the republic cen-
tral committee was forced to defend Krste Crvenkov-
ski, Tito's second-in-command in the collective
presidency, against public charges of nationalist
deviation leveled by a veterans association leader
in Bosnia-Hercegovina.
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SECRET
JORDAN-FEDAYEEN: The shooting of Jordan's
ambassador in London yesterday was probably carried
out by Fatah and underlines the Palestine libera-
tion movement's ambition to eliminate the Jordanian
regime by assassination.
Zaid Rifai, who served King Husayn as chief
of the royal court during the bitter contests with
the fedayeen last year, was slightly wounded by
submachine gun fire near his embassy in London. The
assault was apparently made by a group similar to
the Fatah special action team that assassinated
Prime Minister Wasfi Tal in Cairo late last month.
The incident heightens the likelihood of fur-
ther assassination attempts
Beirut, the effective headquarters of
Palestinian resistance activity, is likely to be
the main arena for such activity, but shooting
affrays could occur in almost any city where senior
Jordanian or Palestinian leaders are present.
16 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR-EGYPT: Negotiations for the purchase of
Soviet civil aircraft are to begin this week, ac-
cording to an Egyptian official.
The talks are to focus on the possible purchase
of eight TU-154 medium-range jets, and three IL-62
long-range jets, which the Egyptians now are leasing.
Cairo also is considering the acquisition of several
YAK-40 tri-jet aircraft for training purposes. Egyp-
tian civil air officials have been debating whether
to purchase Soviet or US civil aircraft for some time,
but no decision has yet been made.
Many Egyptians consider US aircraft to be tech-
nically superior to the Soviet planes, but Moscow's
attractive financial terms may well be the determin-
ing factor. The Soviets, moreover, are expected to
put considerable pressure on Egyptian cabinet offi-
cials who are expected to reach a decision within
the next two months. Deliveries would be made during
1972-74.
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SECRET
CHILE: The Popular Unity coalition has decided
to postpone until 20 December a demonstration that
it had planned in order to counter a mass opposition
rally set for tonight. The Christian Democrats had
denounced the planned demonstration as a provocation
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luespite-tne postponement, however,
ere is no assurance that the free-wheeling move-
ment of the Revolutionary Left--possibly urged on
by equally violence-prone Socialists--will not
carry out plans to harass and intimidate opposition-
ists on their way to the rally at the National Sta-
dium. To prove the undiminished strength of oppo-
sition to the Allende government, the sponsoring
Christian Democrats and supporting National Party
need a good turnout; the Popular Unity failed to
fill the stadium at the farewell rally for Fidel
Castro two weeks ago.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
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Secret
Secret
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