CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020700090001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 18, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
N2 042
18 December 1971
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No. 0302/71
18 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA--PAKISTAN: Disaffection with President Yahya
appears to be rising in West Pakistan. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Communists renew heavy attacks along
Route 6. (Page 5)
LAOS: New setback to government forces on Bolovens
Plateau. (Page 7)
EC-US: EC Commission authorized to negotiate very
limited trade concessions to the US. (Page 8)
CHILE: Opposition to Allende develops confidence
and new issues. (Page 9)
HONDURAS: Severe economic problems probably will
result in cabinet changes. (Page 11)
USSR-CUBA: Soviet destroyers and submarines remain
in Cuba (Page 12)
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AUSTRALIA-CUBA: Sale of sugar harvesters (Page 12)
DENMARK: Proposal to reduce armed forces (Page 13)
COLOMBIA - ANDEAN GROUP: Supreme Court ruling
Page 13)
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Kabut
I ZI
Nayachor
ydera bad
fkot
akargar
VIML
A ILL
Amritspt'
eroZare
N \A B
41 Indian advance
4- Pakistani advance
Road
+--+- Railroad
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C ]INDIA-PAKISTAN: Military and popular disaffec-
tion with President Yahya appears to be on the rise
in West Pakistan.
Just before Yahya ordered a cease-fire yester-
day on the western front, a senior Pakistani Army
officer told US officials that the majority of offi-
cers wanted to fight on rather than accept India's
ultimatum. Another senior officer said yesterday
that Yahya was finished because 80 percent of the
officer corps now would no longer back him.
The US Embassy in Islamabad has also heard a
good deal of criticism of Yahya's leadership from
Pakistani civilians in the last two days
In Lahore, the ocal chairman ot u o s
Pakistan People's Party (PPP)--the strongest party
in the country--told the US Consul yesterday that
the public will be looking for scapegoats, and that
Yahya will be the main target of the people's wrath.
The PPP also held a small anti-government demonstra-
tion yesterday in Peshawar.
Meanwhile, Yahya's plan for installing a civil-
ian cabinet later this month may be heading for dif-
ficulty. Bhutto yesterday told a member of the US
delegation to the UN that he was no longer willing
to accept Nurul Amin as prime minister, and that
Islamabad's military rulers must hand over power to
the PPP as soon as possible. Bhutto had previously
agreed to take the posts of deputy prime minister
and foreign minister, with Amin, who heads a rival
multi-party coalition, assuming the prime minister-
ship. In addition, the PPP local chairman in Lahore
told US officials that Bhutto may not wish to serve
while Yahya is President because that would be too
much of a political. liability. A PPP leader in Is-
lamabad told a US official yesterday that Bhutto
had informed him by telephone that. he would be
coming home "in a day or two."
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C Yahya probably is deeply depressed over recent
developments, and he might not feel much like trying
to pick up the pieces. He pre-recorded his broad-
cast of 16 December to the nation, and no US offi-
cial has reported seeing him for several days. For-
eign correspondents in Rawalpindi are speculating
over the possibility that Yahya may be about to be
cial Pakistani spokesman stated on 16 December that
Bengali leader Mujibur Rahman's trial has ended and
that a military court is now considering a verdict.
The completion of Mujib's trial has been falsely
rumored several times in recent months, however.
Some newsmen are speculating that the Indians might
demand Mujib's release in exchange for West Paki-
stani. soldiers taken prisoner in East Pakistan,.but
there is no evidence as yet to indicate that the
Indians plan to make such a demand.
The cease-fire on the western front went into
effect on schedule yesterday morning after Pakistan
had announced that it would halt firing at 0930 EST
coinciding with India's cease-fire. Reporting on
the military situation has been sketchy since then,
making evaluation of the cease-fire's effectiveness
difficult. In Lahore, the US Consul reported that
heavy artillery fire could still be heard early
this morning. The cease-fire in the 1965 Indo-Pak-
istani war was followed by a number of serious vio-
lations by each side which gradually diminished
over a period of a few weeks.
According to the Indian press, India holds
about 1,400 square miles of West Pakistani territory
to Pakistan's 60 miles of Indian territory. Each
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C country apparently made some relatively small ad-
vances into the other's territory in the Kashmir
and Punjab areas, and the Indians took a much larger
piece of territory further south in a sparsely popu-
lated desert portion of Pakistan's Sind Province.
How the process of territorial restoration or re-
adjustment is to be carried out has not yet been
announced.
In the East, Indian officers and Mukti Bahini
guerrilla leaders in Dacca were reportedly trying
to establish order yesterday and to prevent Bengali
acts of revenge against Pakistani soldiers and their
local collaborators. There were some reports of
scattered street fighting, but it appeared to be
random and disorganized and to be diminishing as
the day wore on. Outside Dacca, Pakistani soldiers
in a few outlying areas apparently had not received
word of the surrender and were still resisting.
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CAMBODIA: Route 6 Area
mpong Thom
Enemy held
Encircled
Government relief
force stalled /
1-Heavy mortar
6
Enemy held
Prakham
d rocket attacks
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CAMBODIA: Government positions on Route 6 are
once aga i uunder heavy attack.
Enemy forces have encircled :Prakham, inflicting
substantial casualties on its defenders and prevent-
ing evacuation of wounded. The two government bat-
talions defending the village will attempt to with-
draw from their positions with the help of a four-
battalion relief column that is on its way from
Skoun. This column is having trouble moving along
damaged portions of Route 6, and itself has come un-
der Communist rocket fire.
There has been little change in the situation
at Tang Kouk in the past few days; the Communists
continue to carry out regular shelling attacks and
ground probes against government positions in and
around that village. Cambodian unit commanders at
Tang Kouk maintain that they can no longer maneuver
effectively and are adopting a static defense pos-
ture.
Lingering Cambodian hopes that South Vietnamese
operations to the east would force the Communists to
withdraw more troops from the Route 6 area have been
dealt a blow by the sudden but orderly withdrawal
yesterday of the South Vietnamese from the Chup rub-
ber plantation. The pull-back apparently was prompted
in part by reports that additional Communist troops
were moving toward the northern reaches of the plan-
tation.
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0 Government-held location
40 Communist-held location
o 25
MILES
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LAOS: Government forces have suffered a new
setback on the Bolovens Plateau.
A four-battalion irregular task force attempt-
ing to take a high point eight miles north of Paksong
was dispersed on 16 December by a North Vietnamese
battalion. Part of the irregular force has withdrawn
to Ban Phakkout on Route 23 west of Paksong; the re-
mainder is still unlocated.
Paksong town, which is currently defended by some
To the north, two irregular task forces, which
have been under increasing enemy pressure for the
last two weeks, have concluded their sweep operations
near Thateng. During the month-long operation, the
forces had destroyed several enemy trucks and small
supply caches while drawing a strong North Vietnam-
ese force to protect this sensitive rear area.
The dispersal of the force near Paksong and the
withdrawal of the Thateng forces will make it easier
for the North Vietnamese to move men and supplies
onto the Bolovens. The Communists may soon move on
seven government battalions.
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EC-US: The trade concessions which the EC Com-
mission has now been authorized to negotiate with
the US are very limited in scope.
The negotiating mandate rejects the US request
that the EC reduce certain grain prices and affirms
that trade negotiations with the European countries
which are not candidates for EC membership will con-
tinue. The limited concessions which the EC will
offer--withholding grains from the export market
and on US exports of citrus fruits and tobacco--
apparently are contingent on reciprocal concessions
by the US. The EC, however, will agree to negotiate
later in GATT on trade problems caused by the EC's
enlargement and thereafter to participate in a re-
view of the international trading system.
The EC's response reflects its belief that the
demands submitted last week by the US are excessive.
Some of these demands, the EC believes, would re-
quire basic policy adjustments which are unaccept-
able and politically impossible for some members
of the Community. German agricultural minister
Ertl has told an American Embassy official, for
example, that he would resign rather than accept
another reduction in German farm prices--a contin-
gency that could shake the Brandt coalition.
France, which from the beginning has taken a
hard line on the trade issues, is showing concern
that the US may feel that the EC's position is an
inadequate follow-through to the understandings
reached between Presidents Nixon and Pompidou.
After the French Council of Ministers meeting on
Thursday, a press spokesman noted that the narrow-
ness of the mandate was essentially
fore the Azores summit and was the
confirmed
expression
be-
of
the entire Community.
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SECRET
CHILE: The success of the opposition rally on
16 December and a jump in the cost of living are
giving President Allende's opponents new assurance
and ammunition.
The Christian Democrats rallied a near-capacity
crowd in the National Stadium, even without the
standard provision of free transportation, thus out-
doing the show staged there for Fidel Castro two
weeks earlier. The crowd would have been even
larger and more enthusiastic if the sponsors had
not created a highly partisan atmosphere that alien-
ated the more conservative groups. Christian Demo-
cratic President Fuentealba's hard-hitting speech
promised a strong opposition and reaffirmed the case
for impeaching Interior Minister Toha. He also re-
iterated that his party was ready to join Allende
in a genuine effort to build a new Chile.
Fuentealba also said that his party would sup-
port the National Party's formal impeachment motion
against Economy Minister Vuskovic, introduced on 15
December on charges of rigging the official consumer
price index. The decision to move against Vuskovic
was made on the grounds that he faces opposition
from moderate economists within the government, is
more vulnerable to impeachment than Toha, and plans
to nationalize a :Large number of firms in the next
few weeks to bolster government candidates in legis-
lative by-elections next month. The two parties
have enough congressional strength to carry through
the impeachment if they can avoid the difficulties
that have blocked many past attempts to coordinate
their efforts.
A 2.7-percent jump in the consumer index in
November raised the inflation rate for the first
eleven months of this year to 18.8 percent. The
November increase is significant because prices
are usually stable during this early summer season
when fruits and vegetables are normally plentiful.
The government has admitted publicly the growing
18 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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SECRET
seriousness of food shortages, which weigh heavily
in the index. It has sent a meat purchasing mission
to Africa, New Zealand, and Australia and taken
steps to increase production and to take over most
of the food distribution network.
if the December increase continues the trend,
the cost of living will have risen 22 percent this
year, four percent above government predictions.
This would lead to pressure for an equal increase
in the traditional January wage readjustments, which
are keyed to the price index, and pose a serious
problem for the hardpressed economy. Workers such
as copper miners who are not restrained by the offi-
cial agreement with the Chilean Trade Union Confed-
eration will undoubtedly use the accelerated infla-
tion rate as further justification for their current
high wage demands.
1.8 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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HONDURAS: Severe economic and fiscal problems
make it almost certain that the Ministers of Economy
and Finance will be replaced in the cabinet changes
expected to be announced on Christmas Eve.
A lack of leadership and government planning
has contributed significantly to the growing fiscal
problems which were allowed to reach crisis propor-
tions before any action was attempted. The finance
minister submitted the 1972 revenue and tax bills
to Congress only last month and neither has yet been
passed. Both have drawn severe criticism from the
planning council and the business sector as unrealis-
tic. Even if most of the proposed tax increases are
approved, another large deficit is expected in 1972.
The economy in general has suffered greatly
from the virtual collapse of the Central American
Common Market. Largely because of Honduras' own in-
transigence, recent negotiations with Nicaragua,
Guatemala, and Costa Rica have produced neither bi-
lateral agreements nor a restructuring of the Common
Market. Furthermore, incompetence and infighting at
the cabinet level have given critics of the govern-
ment additional ammunition.
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NOTES
USSR-CUBA: The main body of the Soviet naval
group that visited Cuba last month is now in the
Mediterranean, but a Kashin-class destroyer and an
F-class diesel attack submarine remain in Cuban
waters. The submarine, which apparently sustained
some damage after leaving Havana on 9 November, put
in at the Cuban naval base at Mariel for minor re-
pairs the next day and has since operated from there.
The Kashin arrived at Mariel on 23 November after ac-
companying the rest of the task force to Cienfuegos.
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AUSTRALIA-CUBA: The Australian branch of a Ca-
nadian-owned firm is negotiating to expand its sales
of sugar harvesters to Cuba. The Massey-Ferguson
Company delivered 100 units to Cuba during 1971 and
hopes to ship an additional 100 to 200 units during
1972. The sale, valued at from $3 to $7 million, is
expected to be concluded this spring. Because of
the small quantity involved, the new harvesters are
not expected to have a significant impact on Cuban
sugar production. The harvesters are being used to
supplement those purchased from the USSR, which are
not adaptable to Cuban climatic and geographic con-
ditions.
(continued)
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DENMARK: The Social Democratic government has
intro uc edlegislation aimed at substantially reduc-
ing the size of the Danish armed forces. The stand-
ing army would be reduced from 13,000 to 7,000, the
navy would emphasize the use of smaller vessels, and
nine authorized air force tactical units would be
cut to six. The term of service for conscripts,
currently ten to 12 months, would be reduced to five
or six months. Nearly all Danish military forces
are committed to NATO and their already deficient
contributions would be considerably lessened if the
legislation is passed. The proposal does not have
the blessing of the Socialist Peoples' Party, which
normally supports the present minority government,
and the Social Democrats apparently hope for support
from the opposition parties. The issue is certain
to evoke prolonged debate and the proposed changes
would not take effect before 1973 in any case.
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COLOMBIA - ANDEAN GROUP: The Colombian Supreme
Courthas ruled that the government acted unconsti-
tutionally in implementing the Andean Foreign In-
vestment Code by executive decree without seeking
congressional approval. The decision is a victory
for the business community, which wants some re-
strictive provisions of the code and the decree mod-
ified or eliminated. Judicial formalities, however,
will probably allow the code to remain in force un-
til late January, and President Pastrana may still
be able to bypass the congress at least temporarily
by declaring a state of economic emergency. Never-
theless, the court's action complicates Colombian
participation in other Andean Group measures and
adds to uncertainty over the code raised by prospec-
tive negotiations aimed at having Venezuela join
Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru in the
subregional group.
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Secret
Secret
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