CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020900090001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 13, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
State Dept. review completed
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13 January 1972
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No. 0011/72
13 January 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
LAOS: Long Tieng situation remains critical. (Page 1)
VIETNAM: Communists seek to spread impression that
"massive" offensive is planned for next month. (Page 2)
BANGLADESH: Mujibur Rahman is moving quickly to con-
solidate his position. (Page 3)
MALTA-UK-NATO: Stage is set for another offer to
Min of . (Page 4)
PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: President Bhutto scores suc-
cess in visit to Kabul. (Page 5)
YUGOSLAVIA: Croatian nationalists may be brought to
trial. (Page 6)
USSR: Sale of transport aircraft to a West German
firm. (Page 7)
VENEZUELA: Caldera government embarrassed by guer-
rilla attacks. (Page 9)
BURMA: General Ne Win reportedly relinquishing prime
minister's post. (Page 10)
UN: Security Council decides to hold meeting in
Africa. (Page 11)
PHILIPPINES: Rice purchases from China (Page 12)
UN-BANGLADESH: UN aid (Page 12)
IRELAND: Differences with EC (Page 13)
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LONG TIENG AREA
40 Governent-held location
? Communist-held location
A Highpoint
0 5
Miles
S1;CRET
can Na
Poo
LONG MAI
U
1Tha Tam Bleung
Sam Thong
C!i FSB Thunder
Attacked by NVA
SK Y~ ENE
Khang Kho
PharDong
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PLAINE
DES
,,.Muong Pot JARRES
Phou Pha Sai
0
ha Khao
- ` l
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C LAOS: The situation in the Long Tieng area re-
mains critical, but irregular troops are still hold-
ing on.
North Vietnamese troops in the Long Tieng Val-
ley are confined to the south slope of Skyline Ridge
and to a few pockets in the village of Long Tieng.
A direct attack in force has not yet developed, al-
though this could occur tonight.
The five fire. support bases---four in the valley
and one just east of Sam Thong--provided support to
government forces throughout 12 January. Irregular
units performed well both in the valley and along
its western ridges. Air support was extensive and
a major factor in keeping enemy units at bay.
Much will now depend upon the North Vietnamese
ability to follow up their thrusts of 11-12 January
with a major new attack.
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VIETNAM: The Communists are making an unusual
effort to spread the impression that a "massive"
spring military campaign is being planned in South
Vietnam to coincide with President Nixon's trip to
Peking.
The latest comment on the alleged Communist
intentions reportedly comes from a member of the
North Vietnamese delegation to the Paris talks.
How much of these forecasts of a big offensive is
rhetoric and how much is solid intention is still
far from clear. The volume and openness of Commu-
nist discussion of their military intentions is
puzzling, since they usually work hard to conceal
even the outlines of their plans.
Although Communist cadre are being told down
the line that a "general offensive," including some
attacks on urban areas, is scheduled for the next
few weeks or months, there is as yet little evidence
of hard planning for an all-out effort. There have
been a few reports suggesting that detailed orders
for major efforts against various targets are being
formulated and issued, but other information sug-
gests that in many units detailed planning for the
coming spring effort mainly involves economy-of-
force tactics tailored to existing Communist weak-
nesses.
Moreover, there is no substantial evidence of
the resupply and redeployment activities that nor-
mally precede a maximum military effort, except in
the border areas of Military Regions (MR) 1 and 2,
where the Communists seem to be preparing for sub-
stantial offensive action in the spring. Some ac-
tivity of this type also has been reported recently
in several provinces around Saigon, in the western
delta, and in southern MR 1. Nonetheless, there
does not yet appear to have been sufficient prepara-
tion for a sustained offensive in these areas.
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BANGLADESH: Mujibur Rahman is moving quickly
to consolidate his position.
Mujib has issued orders declaring a parliamen-
tary system with himself as prime minister. The
parliament, which is also to function as a constit-
uent assembly, will be made up of persons elected
in December 1970 to the national legislature and
to the East Pakistan provincial assembly. The over-
whelming majority of these legislators are members
of Mujib's Awami League. Abu Syed Chowdhury, a
jurist and educator who represented Bangladesh in
London and at the UN, has been sworn in as Presi-
dent, a largely ceremonial post. Mujib's new cabi-
net consists primarily of the same members as the
previous one.
Mujib's action may bring about a slight reduc-
tion in Soviet and Indian influence in Dacca.
Tajuddin Ahmad, who lost his position as prime min-
ister, is considered one of Moscow's and New Delhi's
firmest allies in the Awami League. Ahmad is also
viewed as more left-leaning than most other Awami
League leaders who, like Mujib, are regarded as
middle-of-the-road. There has been no indication
yet of what future role Mujib now has in mind for
Ahmad. Infighting among the Awami League factions
and other parties is likely to continue in any
event.
Mujib's enormous prestige and popularity
should enable him to act more decisively and in-
dependently than his lieutenants. Nevertheless,
his heavy reliance on Indian assistance in main-
taining internal security and in reviving Bangla-
desh's prostrate economy, added to his emphatically
expressed gratitude to Mrs. Gandhi's government
for its role in the independence struggle, assures
New Delhi strong influence in Dacca for some time
to come.
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t MALTA-UK-NATO: NATO has set the stage for an-
other offer to Prime Minister Mintoff, but London's
willingness to cooperate in this effort to concili-
ate Mintoff is unclear.
The NATO permanent representatives, meeting
as the North Atlantic Council (NAC), yesterday fa-
vored telling Mintoff by Saturday that if negotia-
tions with the British are resumed and lead to a
satisfactory agreement, NATO would offer a payment
of over $31 million annually. The US offer to add
about $2 million to the previous NATO package has
been matched by like pledges from Italy and West
Germany. It appears that no further substantial
amounts will be added to the $31-million package.
The French still refuse to participate, but Paris
may add to the $18.2 million in bilateral aid avail-
able this far to Malta.
The NAC also agreed to a UK proposal that re-
newed negotiations be conditional upon Malta
dropping its deadline of 15 January and agreeing
not to harass the British withdrawal. In the event
that the UK completes its withdrawal, it seems un-
likely that the British would return in substantial
numbers, if at all.
London is "fed up" with Mintoff's actions and
believes that there is only a remote chance of
reaching an accord even if Valletta's financial
demands are met,
Moreover, the UK feels that Mintoff
is unreliable and would ultimately abrogate any new
agreement. The British, who are adamantly opposed
to increasing their share of the UK-NATO offer, are
concerned that giving in under pressure to Mintoff
would have unfavorable implications in terms of the
cost of UK bases in Singapore and Cyprus.
13 Jana % 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: President Bhutto evi-
dently scored a sicrnsf a t psychological gain dur-
ing his visit to Kabul on 11 January.
The Afghans, chronically suspicious of Pakistan,
apparently think that Bhutto's surprise visit indi-
cates that he is more interested than any of his
predecessors in building close relations with Kabul.
Less than a month ago, King Zahir told the US
ambassador that Bhutto was an "unbalanced man" and
a "pathological liar." Bhutto apparently was able
to change this impression, however, and the Afghans
now report that he has matured. Nevertheless, there
are many Afghans who remember his past activities
unfavorably and find his current posture suspect.
The content of the talks was probably less im-
portant for both parties than the atmospherics.
Neither Bhutto nor the King raised any specific is-
sues, although Bhutto said he would do everything
possible to meet Afghanistan's "long-standing con-
cerns" and the King promised to give Bhutto ample
time to deal with Pakistan's domestic problems.
Both may have been referring indirectly to the prob-
lem of the Pushtu--speaking area of Pakistan for
which the Afghans have long advocated indepen
or at least a considerable degree of autonomy.
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YUGOSLAVIA: The stage is set for a show trial
of republic ntionalists in Croatia.
Eleven persons were arrested in Zagreb yester-
day in the biggest roundup of Croatian nationalists
since the opening days of the purge in mid-December.
All are accused of collaborating with radical
emigres and foreign intelligence services to sepa-
rate Croatia from Yugoslavia. They are members of
Matica Hrvatska, the strongly nationalist Croatian
cultural organization that played a direct role in
bringing about a situation that obliged Tito to in-
tervene in Croatia. The new leadership in Zagreb,
anxious to prove its loyalty to Tito, appears in-
tent on bringing the detainees to trial.
From the outset of the purge last month, there
have been hints in the Yugoslav press that some for-
eign intelligence organizations--those of the US
have been mentioned specifically--have conspired to
set Croatian nationalists against Belgrade, but
this is the first indication that anyone may be
held to account on the charge. Yugoslav press
treatment of the case clearly suggests that the
charge really is aimed at the Soviets.
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USSR: The Soviets have so:Ld five YAK-40 short-
haul transport aircraft to a West German firm.
A small airline operating primarily in north-
ern Germany bought the planes, configured for 27
passengers, for about $1.2 million each. Eight
YAK-40s reportedly have been sold in Germany and
seven more are under option. Maintenance facili-
ties have been constructed at Lubeck in northern
Germany, thus overcoming a major obstacle to past
Soviet aircraft sales efforts in Western Europe.
West Germany, France, Italy, and Sweden are
expected to give airworthiness certification to
the YAK-40 this year. The UK also may join this
group. A small 1:talian airline that ordered two
of these aircraft: in 1969 has received one, but
because it has not been certified it is being used
as a demonstration model only. A French firm also
is reported to have purchased two planes, and a
YAK-40 is being assembled in Colombia prior to be-
ing demonstrated in several South American coun-
tries.
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Venezuela
$ Attac 'n o 1
tied ruy
'Maturrn
/ Ambush
uerrilla/sighting Pariaguan`
Guerrilla sighting
,Troops mobilized
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VENEZUELA: An upsurge in guerrilla attacks and
sightings has embarrassed the Caldera government.
The ruling Social Christians, who have been
planning to stand on their "pacification" record in
next year's general election, have professed minimal
concern about recent warnings of an impending guer-
rilla campaign. Government and military insistence
that recent terrorist acts are isolated events, how-
ever, is being ignored by the sensationalist press.
While no significant security problem has de-
veloped, the rapid succession of incidents in scat-
tered areas shows some reinvigoration among the gen-
erally ineffective divided guerrillas. In response,
the military has mobilized troops in several parts
of the country, and embassy and public buildings
are under heavier than usual protection.
Security forces have continued to make inroads
against the small terrorist bands and are probably
correct in their claim to have the insurgency situ-
ation under control. The timing of this new guer-
rilla effort, however, is particularly damaging.
Interior Minister Fernandez, who has assured the
press repeatedly that his pacification policy is a
thoroughgoing success, is on the verge of launching
his presidential campaign. There is some danger
that the revival of security policy as a partisan
issue, with the consequent heavy publicity for the
guerrillas, might further encourage the insurgents
in their evident wish to resume activity.
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BURMA: General Ne Win reportedly is giving
serious thought to relinquishing his powers as prime
minister.
The long-ailing general has periodically ex-
pressed weariness over the burdens of office, but
his low regard for potential successors among his
military colleagues has been a factor encouraging
him to carry on. Any consideration that Ne Win may
be giving to a less active role no doubt is self-
initiated, and there is no indication that. he is
under pressure from any group within the military.
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The current rumors of Ne Win's retirement have
been fed by reports of the break-up of his marriage.
One report claims that Ne Win, accusing his wife of
infidelity, divorced her on 10 January. Serious
marital difficulties could impel Ne Win, who has
been emotionally dependent on his wife, to seek a
less active government role.
Ne Win's intentions are obscured by the mystery
surrounding Burma's shadowy and reclusive leaders,
but his marital and health problems could spur the
unpredictable general into a snap decision.
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UN: Many UN members favor the idea of meetings
outside New York, but the decision in principle to
convene a special Security Council meeting in Africa
in the next few weeks poses difficult problems.
Guinea and Zambia, for example, are bidding for
the site of the Security Council session, presumably
to draw additional. attention to their special griev-
ances vis-a-vis the white minority governments. New
Security Council member Panama has offered to host a
meeting next year in Latin America, hinting that the
future of the canal would be a suitable topic.
Many members have reservations about a change
of venue but were unwilling to offend the Africans;
hence the consensus decision to go to Africa. So-
mali delegate Farah, who as Security Council presi-
dent during January may chair the unprecedented
meeting, skillfully worked to secure the decision
at this time. The Chinese and the Soviets gave him
strong support, and have indicated they would prefer
Conakry or Lusaka as the site. The Western members
prefer Addis Ababa, which has adequate facilities
and is the UN's African headquarters.
Apart from budgetary and physical arrangements,
which are yet to be ironed out, it will be difficult
to satisfy the conflicting objectives of the Council
members. The Africans probably will seek to focus
on what they regard as the key issues--Rhodesia,
South-West Africa, apartheid, and the Portuguese
territories--and may not be satisfied with non-con-
demnatory resolutions adopted by consensus. On the
other hand, any Western use of the veto would fur-
ther Soviet and Chinese propaganda among black Af-
ricans.
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PHILIPPINES: Manila hopes to increase sharply
rice purchases from Peking, as well as others, to
help meet its growing rice shortage. According to
Agriculture Secretary Tanco, talks with Peking are
expected to start soon and, if successful, China
could become a major rice supplier to the Philip-
pines. In 1971 China supplied only a small portion
of total rice imports, which amounted to about
375,000 tons. Because of expected crop shortfalls
and the need to rebuild depleted stocks, Manila is
considering importing well in excess of a half mil-
lion tons of rice this year. This would make the
Philippines one of the world's largest rice import-
ing countries in contrast to Manila's earlier ex-
pectations that it would be self-sufficient in rice
by the early 1970s.
UN-BANGLADESH: Senior secretariat officials
have established new guidelines for UN assistance
to an estimated 30 million persons in Bangladesh.
Relief is to be provided without implying recogni-
tion of Bangladesh. The UN presence in India is
to be phased out in favor of a Dacca-based program
of relief, rehabilitation, and resettlement. The
UN staff in Bangladesh may be changed considerably
in deference to local concern that earlier efforts--
and personnel--were tied too closely to the Paki-
stani Government.
(continued)
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IRELAND: Irish and European Community nego-
tiators have not resolved differences in sugar pro-
duction quotas; Ireland is offering 170,000 tons,
while the EC's "final" offer is 150,000 tons. Ire-
land raised sugar production last year to 170,000
tons from 147,000 in 1970 in anticipation of EC en-
try. Refinery capacity also has been expanded re-
cently. Irish farmers had planned to increase pro-
duction of profitable beet sugar to 240,000 tons.
An adverse settlement would cost. several thousand
jobs and would leave excess refinery capacity adding
to pressures on Prime Minister Lynch, who is already
concerned over high unemployment. Ireland still
hopes to sign the. EC accession treaty on 22 January.
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secret
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