CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021300060001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 10, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
N? 41
1 March 1972
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Secret
The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on. issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
Secret
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No. 0052/72
1 March 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CHINA-US: Airport turnout for Chou underlines Pe-
king's endorsement of President Nixon's visit.
(Page 1)
LEBANON-ISRAEL: Political crisis looms in Lebanon.
(Page 3)
IRELAND: Signs of improving relations with the
USSR. (Page 4)
USSR-BANGLADESH: Mujib's visit likely to result in
aid agreements. (Page 6)
USSR: Industrial production in January.
(Page 7)
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HONDURAS: Resurgence of interest in replacing
President Cruz. (Page 10)
JAPAN-CHINA: Diplomatic move by Tokyo (Page 11)
MALTA-UK-NATO: London to stand pat (Page 11)
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IRAN: Terrorism at government rally (Page 12)
GRENADA: Landslide victory for ruling party (Page 13)
SWEDEN: Housewives demonstrate (Page 13)
JAMAICA: Opposition electoral victory (Page 13)
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*CHINA-US: Peking's leaders have underlined
for the Chinese people their endorsement of Presi-
dent Nixon's visit.
A crowd of 5,000 people was on hand at Peking
airport to greet Chou En-lai on his return from
Shanghai--a highly unusual turnout for such an oc-
casion. The official account of this greeting sets
the scene firmly in an atmosphere of unity: virtu-
ally all active members of the politburo resident
in Peking were on hand, and the account stressed the
point that "commanders and fighters of the People's
Liberation Army" were present. The account also
made the unusual point that all members of the pol-
itburo--including Mao's wife and ideologist Yao Wen-
yuan, who were deeply involved in Red Guard excesses
during the Cultural Revolution--"warmly" shook hands
with Chou and his party.
The account additionally stressed that all pres-
ent "expressed warm support for Chairman Mao's revo-
lutionary line in foreign affairs and their resolve
to carry it out" and quoted slogans to this effect,
as well as others singling out Chou for special wel-
come. It notes that, when the premier appeared, the
airport "became a scene of jubilation," with people
beating drums and gongs and waving bouquets.
Such unusual treatment of what would normally
be a routine domestic flight on the part of the pre-
mier back to the capital after seeing off a foreign
dignitary in Shanghai serves several purposes: to
make it clear that the Chinese leaders are generally
pleased with the presidential visit as a whole, to
endorse the terms of the joint communique, and to
add obliquely the approval of the military establish-
ment and of Mao himself to that of the government of-
ficials who were involved in the actual negotiations,
and to underline the strong position of Chou En-lai
1 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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in the present structure of power in Peking. In-
deed, it is quite possible that Chou's hand has been
strengthened by the generally favorable atmosphere
produced by the President's visit. 25X1
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
1 Mar 7 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C LEBANON-ISRAEL: A crisis is looming on the
domestic Lebanese political scene in the wake of
the massive Israeli raids.
According to the US Embassy in Beirut, Presi-
dent Franjiyah is moving to curtail severely feda-
yeen activity within Lebanon. The president is
said to have the support of the army and cabinet
and has either convinced all major politicians of
the necessity of his action or has neutralized them.
Franjiyah reportedly warned the politicians that
there was a serious possibility that Israel would
permanently occupy Lebanese territory unless Beirut
acts against the fedayeen. As part of Franjiyah's
action the Lebanese Army moved into the Mt. Hermon
area during the evening of 28 February and began
setting up road blocks.
Although the fedayeen publicly acquiesced in
Franjiyah's initial move, they are organizing popu-
lar demonstrations against the government to fore-
stall further limitations on their activities.
The first occurred yesterday evening when a crowd,
estimated at 15,000 people, participated in a fu-
neral service for seven fedayeen killed in the
clashes with the Israelis. A massive demonstration
organized by Lebanese leftists and the fedayeen
was scheduled for today in Beirut to protest any
watering down of the Cairo Agreement of 1969,
which allows the fedayeen to operate freely in the
Mt. Hermon area; demonstrations have also been
planned in other cities.
Egyptian President Sadat has sent Deputy War
Minister Hasan to Beirut with a personal message
for Franjiyah. According to a Cairo newspaper,
es-
Sadat is appealing to Franjiyah not to take oppr
sive measures against the fedayeen and has assured
him that Egypt will ensure the safety of Lebanon.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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IRELAND: There are signs of improving rela-
tions with the USSR and of some gain in local Com-
munist influence as well.
The factors that have served to retard rela-
tions with the bloc and to inhibit Communist influ-
ence--conservative tradition, politically influen-
tial clergy, economic dependence on Britain and
ties to the Irish-American community--continue to
operate. Nonetheless, some increase in Soviet in-
fluence seems inevitable.
Ireland expects to open diplomatic relations
with the Soviet Union this year and looks for some
increase in trade with the bloc. An eight-man So-
viet delegation, headed by Deputy Minister for For-
eign Trade Manzhulo and including two Foreign Min-
istry officials, began a week-long visit to Dublin
on 28 February.
Prime Minister Lynch and other Irish leaders
have hinted that in the absence of tangible support
from more traditional allies Ireland may look east
for help in the Ulster dispute. Soviet media have
been sympathetic to the Irish position. TASS' cor-
respondent in Dublin has been closely associated
with the Irish Republican Army's "Official" faction
that favors selective violence as a tactic, as op-
posed to the indiscriminate terrorist tactics of
the "Provisionals."
I Ireport that
the r' anc Civil Rights Association (CRA)
was taken over by Communists and members of the
Communist-influenced Official faction of the IRA in
recent elections for officers. The CRA was formed
in February 1967 to support Catholic minority
rights and later undertook--in conjunction with a
student group led by Bernadette Devlin--to sponsor
public demonstrations such as the "bl ody Sunday"
march in Londonderry on 30 January_ 2.
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eretofore, the CRA's leadership had been con-
sidere7relatively free of Communist and IRA control.
Although its base of support apparently is narrower
than that of some other nationalist groups such as
the moderate Social Democratic Labor Party, the CRA
is strong in Londonderry and might well be active
in the administration of that city in the event of
a political settlement.
For the present, the shift in CRA leadership
raises the possibility that the Communist Party of
Ireland, a negligible political force, will attempt
to use the CRA as a vehicle for promoting its pro-
gram of a Socialist Republic of 32 counties friendly
to the USSR and opposed to the EC. The Communists
will face formidable difficulties. The growth of
Communist influence in the IRA was a major cause of
the bifurcation of that organization into Provisional.
and Official factions. The anti-Marxist Provisionals
now are representative of the IRA majority.
1 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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US$R-BANGLADESH: Prime Minister Mujibur Rah-
man's visit to Moscow is likely to result in the
first Soviet aid agreements with Bangladesh.
A ten-man Soviet economic delegation has been
in Dacca since 15 February exploring the possibility
of assistance in development, reconstruction, and
water control. The Soviets are interested in re-
suming work on aid projects interrupted by the re-
cent Indo-Pakistani war. for to independence,
they had allocated an estimated $70 million for
projects in East Pakistan. Most of these projects
still are unfinishe
Another Soviet delegation has been exploring
the feasibility of assistance to Bangladesh's
fledging national airline, hence it is possible
that a civil aviation agreement also will be an-
nounced during Mujib's visit. In early February,
the two sides signed a short-term barter agreement
for the exchange of about $14 million worth of
goods.
The Soviets have been working hard to capi-
talize on their favorable position in Bangladesh.
New Delhi's displeasure with the degree to which
the Soviets have cultivated Dacca reportedly lies
behind Indian policy planning chief Dhar's current
visit to Moscow. Dhar is attempting to secure
better Soviet-Indian coordination of relations with
Bangladesh,
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USSR: Soviet industrial production got off to
a weak start in January because of severe winter
weather, the aftereffects of last year's disap-
pointing harvest, and continuing problems in the
management of investment programs.
Moscow announced that industrial output grew
by six percent last month compared with January
1971, the lowest January results since monthly data
were first released in the mid-1960s. By Western
calculations, civilian industrial production actu-
ally rose by only 4.3 percent, compared with 5.5
percent in January 1971 and 6.1 percent in January
1970.
Some of the coldest weather in years curbed
production in the extractive industries. The oil,
gas, timber and wood processing, construction ma-
terials and fishing ministries failed even to meet
their January plan targets. The growth in the out-
put of processed foods was small as a result of a
poor harvest of sugar beets and sunflower seeds
last fall and a decline in the production of whole
milk products. The official report claimed that
the failure to bring new capacity into operation
on schedule had caused some plan underfulfillment,
notably in the output of several consumer goods.
Industrial support for agriculture also faltered
in comparison with recent years.
In a few areas, however, the January record
was good. The production of civilian machinery
increased by 8.4 percent, and electric power rose
by 11 percent.
Soviet industrial ministries are holding in-
quiries to determine the reasons for the poor Janu-
ary showing, and the press warned that corrective
measures must be carried out quickly. In 1969
industrial production got off to a poor start in
icy weather and finished the year with one of the
lowest rates of growth since World War II.
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HONDURAS: An outbreak of violence in connec-
tion with the land reform program has prompted a
resurgence of interest in replacing President Cruz.
In a conversation with the US ambassador, Chief
of the Armed Forces General Lopez blamed Cruz' in-
competence and mismanagement for recent violence in
the remote department of Olancho where six peasants
and one police sergeant were killed. The violence
resulted from police and army efforts to expel some
100 peasants who had settled on private land. Lopez
considers Cruz ultimately at fault for placing an
incompetent official in charge of the National Agrar-
ian Institute. His opinion is in part substantiated
by Colonel Melgar, the new chief of police, who is
personally investigating the killings. Melgar says
the peasants were innocent, having settled on land
they had paid for in good faith.
Lopez cited other examples of Cruz' inability
to govern, including his alienation of the business
sector by mismanagement of tax and import conces-
sion matters, his inability to control student dis-
turbances, and his lack of influence even within his
own party. Unsettled conditions in the country have
h
d
a
the rumor mill buzzing for months, and this
latest violence has apparently placed Lopez under
great pressure to act. Lopez still professes that
he has no desire to resume the presidency but admits
that he might have to do so. for a "short period."
1 Mar 72
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JAPAN-CHINA: Tokyo's decision on 29 February
to grant across-the-board approval for Export-Im-
port Bank financing of sales to China enables the
Japanese Government to demonstrate its desire for
a normalization of relations with Peking without
making any significant political concessions. Pres-
ident Nixon's visit to the mainland has refocused
public attention on relations with China, and the
action yesterday in reversing the Japanese Govern-
ment's policy of denying long-term credits to Peking
was timed to head off opposition party criticism
of Prime Minister Sato's China policies. The move
is unlikely to have a major impact on Sino-Japanese
trade in the near future because o 's re-
NTA-UK-NATO: The NATO allies appear willing
to To along with London's wait-and-see approach to
the negotiations. The British told the North At-
lantic Council on 28 February that they do not plan
to reply to Prime Minister Mintoff's latest pro-
posal for a meeting with Prime Minister Heath and
believe that the allies should stand firm in the
hope that Mintoff will come around "in a week or
two." Secretary-General Luns summed up the bleak
outlook when he told the Council that NATO should
face up to the possibility that there may not be
a Malta-UK accord. In two speeches this past week-
end, Mintoff assured his audiences that he has a
favorable alternative--unspecified--to a continued
British presence. He also kept open his options
for a settlement with the UK. In the meantime,
about 50 percent of the British garrison, including
some essential flight safety personnel, have left
the island; 10 1 labor contracts will be terminated
0 31 March.
(continued)
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IRAN: Terrorists yesterday disrupted a govern-
ment-d ri ected mass rally in Tehran with three ex-
plosions which killed one person and injured five
others. The rally was part of a countrywide day of
demonstrations held to protest an alleged campaign
of sabotage and terrorism by "domestic and foreign"
enemies of Iran, particularly Iraq. The major ex-
plosion, apparently from a home-made bomb, went off
among demonstrators in Tehran's main square. The
government, concerned over increased terrorist ac-
tivity, had intended to use these demonstrations as
a warning to dissidents that they cannot count on
public sympathy for anti-regime activities. As a
result of yesterday's incident, the Shah will no
doubt redouble his efforts to weed out and control
ani-i-crovernment elements.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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GRENADA: The ruling Grenada United Labor Party
(GUL ed y Premier Eric Gairy was swept back into
office for another five-year term. The GULP, which
has held office for a total of 12 years since 1951,
won 13 of the 15 seats in the House of Assembly.
Gairy's wife was one of three women to capture house
seats. Gairy will view his landslide victory as a
mandate to carry out his pre-election promise to ask
the British to grant t~e island independence at the
earliest opportunity.
SWEDEN: Housewives in a number of Swedish
communities demonstrated against food prices last
week. Prime Minister Palme accepted a petition on
28 February but failed to dampen the protest move-
ment. Milk strikes, meat boycotts, and other types
of protests are scheduled for this week. The dem-
onstrations, which appeared spontaneous, may de-
velop a political orientation if the government
fails to assuage consumer complaints. Food price
increases scheduled to go into effect today will
PYacnrha+_e the problem,
JAMAICA: The opposition People's Nationa
Party (PNP), led by Michael Manley, won the right to
form the next government after defeating the in-
cumbent Jamaica Labor Party in the 29 February gen-
eral election. The PNP won 27 of the 53 House of
Representatives seats in the early returns for a
majority and was leading in nine other constituen-
cies. Although minor violence has grown at a steady
rate since general elections were announced on 31
January, the campaign has been notable for the over-
all prevalence of law and order. Post-election
violence by disgruntled losers is likely, but, as
a former British colony, Jamaica has a long tradi-
tion of respect for law and order, and any dis-
orders are likely to be short-lived. Local secu-
rity forces should be capable of maintaining con-
trol. It is unlikely that the Manley government
will alter significantly the domestic and foreign
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