CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021400040001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 10, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N? 41
10 March 1972
State Department review completed
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No. 0060/72
10 March 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CHINA - NORTH VIETNAM: Chou En-lai apparently has
briefe Hanoi on President Nixon's visit. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: New constitution nears completion.
(Page 2)
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JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA: Differences on oil concessions
(Page 7)
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Dollar weakens
(Page 7)
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Israeli reprisals (Page 9)
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CHINA - NORTH VIETNAM: Peking appears to have
taken steps to reassure Hanoi and probably Pyongyang
in the wake of President Nixon's China trip.
Prince Sihanouk has told Western newsmen that
Chou En-lai recently assured him and North Vietnam-
ese Premier Pham Van Dong that Peking would not act,
even secretly, as an intermediary between Hanoi and
Washington in resolving the Indochina war. Chou
reportedly said that this had been communicated to
President Nixon.
Sihanouk refused to say where the meeting with
Chou had taken place, but there have been rumors in
Asian diplomatic circles since early this week that
the Chinese Premier was in Hanoi on 3-4 March.
A trip by Chou to Hanoi would not be surprising,
given North Vietnam's obvious nervousness over the
improvement in Sino-US relations. Chou's reported
refusal to serve as an intermediary between Hanoi
and Washington is in line with repeated Chinese
statements, both in public and in private, that any
settlement of the war must be worked out directly
between the US and the Vietnamese Communists.
The persistence of Hanoi's indirect criticism
of the Sino-US talks, however, suggests that Chou's
reassurances have not removed North Vietnamese ob-
jections. In an article on 8 March, the North Viet-
namese Army daily newspaper continued Hanoi's prac-
tice of quoting liberally, and with biting sarcasm,
from the communique and the President's statements
during the visit. The communique issued by Sihanouk
and the North Vietnamese on 5 March, presumably
after Chou's meeting with Dong and Sihanouk, also
contained adverse comments on US portions of the
Shanahai communique.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: The long-awaited draft constitution
that will pave the way for Lon Nol's accession to
the presidency is nearing completion, but several
important loose ends remain.
Lon Nol was due to return to Phnom Penh on 9
March after a month's vacation in Kompong Som.
In the past few days, members of the Constituent
Assembly have been meeting with government officials
to work out a number of controversial articles of the
constitution, including the military's voting rights
and the eligibility of members of the royal family
to hold office. The latter issue is particularly
sensitive in that it directly relates to Sirik
Matak's ability to continue to serve in the govern-
ment.
It still is not clear just what formula will
be adopted to enable Lon Nol to become president.
The new constitution may include a provision that
will name Lon Nol interim president pending national
elections, but the embittered present chief of state,
Cheng Heng, is balking at the idea of promulgating
such an "illegal" document. Constituent Assembly
President In Tam is preparing a procedure to by-
pass Cheng Heng whereby a reconstituted National
Assembly, rather than the chief of state, will pro-
mulgate the new constitution.
Some doubt also still surrounds the likely
makeup of the proposed new government. In Tam, who
appeared to be slated to become prime minister, may
be having second thoughts. He is now telling US
Embassy officials that Lon Nol has not actually
offered him the job.
Apart from Cheng Heng, there appears to be
little opposition within important military or ci-
vilian circles to the impending political changes.
A flurry of antigovernment activity by some student
elements in Phnom Penh is causing the regime some
concern, however. Angered by the recent firing of
10 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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the dean of the Law Faculty for making antigovern-
ment remarks, law students organized a peaceful
public meeting in the capital on 9 March that re-
sulted in the assembled university students "voting"
to withdraw their support from the "Sirik Matak"
government. Thus far, government leaders appear
determined to deal with student dissatisfaction
with restraint, probably on the assumption that
the factionalized student community poses no se-
rious threat. The students' opposition to Sirik
Matak may, nevertheless, provide some ammunition
to those among Lon Nol's entourage who would like
to see Matak's influence curtailed.
10 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA: Tokyo and Seoul failed to
resolve their differences over conflicting claims to
oil concession zones in the East China Sea in the
latest round of talks. Both sides, however, agreed
to continue the understanding that provides for non-
interference in each other's survey work in the dis-
puted areas. While no reference to Taiwan's claims
in these zones was made during the bilateral talks,
a Japanese Embassy official commented later that
when negotiations on the disputed areas eventually
get under wa Tokyo plans to talk with Peking and
nnf- ei.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Nearly
all ajor foreign currency exchange rates strength-
ened sharply against the dollar in active trading
yesterday. Only the Belgian and Dutch currencies,
which were maintained at their exchange rate ceil-
ings by sizable central bank intervention, did not
contribute to the rise. The Netherlands alone
absorbed some $300 million. The recent decision by
the EC to narrow intra-Community exchange margins,
which has the effect of reducing European depend-
ence on the dollar, is one of many factors under-
lying the weakened dollar. Belgium and the Nether-
lands have joined Japan and West Germany in imposing
new exchange controls in response to renewed mone-
tary pressures. If dollar difficulties persist,
France and other countries may similarly tighten
controls over capital inflows. European governments
are resolved, as reflected by the EC monetary agree-
ment, to resist both a renewed float against the
fl
i
ows.
n
dollar and additional large-scale dollar
(continued)
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ISRAEL-LEBANON: Military Activity
Sidon.
Mediterranean
Az Zahran
An Nabatiyah'
LEiBANQN
if
Is bli airstrlte
-.-Hafbayya
f
Tyre;
Israeli shell' -
?
Tibnin
'Ayta ash
Sbetula.,,,Shah
.. a ,rocket at[
Bint
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ISRAEL
Rashayya>
r~ t '_Arq(/b
liryat 3
Shemona
_S ,Y-RI I A
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ISRAEL-LEBANON: Israeli aircraft struck feda-
yeen targets in the Arqub area yesterday afternoon,
the first strike Israel has made against "Fatahland"
since its search-and-destroy action in late Febru-
ary. Earlier yesterday, Israeli artillery shelled
a village in south-central Lebanon in retaliation
for Katyusha rocket attacks on two Israeli border
settlements. While the Katyusha attacks provided
the Israelis with a pretext for hitting fedayeen
positions in southern Lebanon, the airstrikes in the
Arqub area were probabl intended to keep the pres-
sure on the feda een.
10 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
The United States Intelligence Board on 9 March
1972 approved the following national intelligence
estimate:
SNIE 33-72 "Trends in Ceylon"
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
Secret