CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022100060001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 15, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
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No. 0143/72
15 June 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
CIVIL AVIATION: Soviets will support UN statement
on air piracy. (Page 3)
UK: Rail settlement is another setback for Heath's
wage policy. (Page 4)
YUGOSLAVIA: New vice-president will be selected
next month. (Page 5)
CHILE: New electoral regulations (Page 6.)
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CVIETNAM: The Communists are maintaining pres-
sure on government positions in the northern Mekong
Delta area, but there is a general lull throughout
the remainder of the country.
Heavy fighting continues around Tuyen Binh
District town in Kien Tuong Province for the third
straight day, and casualties are high on both sides.
Elements of the Communist 5th Division, which re-
cently moved into this region, apparently are in-
volved in the fighting in Kien Tuong as well as in
nearby Kien Phong Province. Enemy forces in Dinh
Tuong Province directed several mortar rounds
against the provincial capital of My Tho early yes-
terday, causing numerous civilian casualties.
Government forces have cleared enemy units from
much of An Loc and have reoccupied the airstrip on
the northern edge of the town. Government reinforce-
ments are meeting little resistance while moving
from landing areas just outside of An Loc, but the
main elements of the relief column remain stalled
south of the town.
North Vietnam's leadership is raising the pros-
pect of an indefinite extension of the war. Writing
in the daily newspaper on 1 June, an unknown offi-
cial named Hong Ha calls for the reorganization of
society "so that we can wage a protracted war." He
insists that a Communist victory does not require
all the heavy equipment and materiel which the US
has at its disposal. The article makes no reference
to Soviet or Chinese aid,. but its boastful claims
about the country's ability to survive on its own
serves implicitly to minimize the importance of such
assistance for Hanoi's war effort.
(continued)
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C Hong Ha gives the impression that the regime
has only recently decided on the political line he
articulates. He alludes to an "assessment" of a
"new situation" in respect to Vietnam--presumably
that created by great power summitry, developments
in the Communist offensive, and the US interdiction
campaign against
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CIVIL AVIATION: The UN Security Council may
take some action on aviation security by the end
of this week.
The Soviet representative at the UN has been
instructed to support a Security Council consensus
statement on air piracy. US representatives have
been consulting with the Soviet Union and the UK
on the possibility of such a statement, which could
be issued without.a formal meeting or debate. The
statement would call upon states to deter, prevent,
or suppress acts of hijacking or other interference
with air travel and to ensure the prosecution of
those who commit such acts.
Security Council adoption of a consensus state-
ment probably would cause the International Federa-
tion of Airline Pilots Association to call off the
24-hour. strike it has threatened for 19 June. UN
Secretary-General Waldheim will try to find out
what the association means by its request for "ef-
fective action" by the Security Council when he
meets with representatives of the pilots this after-
noon.
A Security Council consensus statement might
also facilitate the adoption of the resolution the
US has been circulating among members of the Council
of the International Civil Aviation Organization.
That resolution, among other things, urges states
to implement the security measures which the ICAO
has adopted and to become parties to the Tokyo,
Hague, and Montreal conventions on air piracy.
More important, it provides for resuming the prepa-
ration of a convention that would establish pro-
cedures for taking joint action, within the ICAO
framework, against countries that fail to deal with
hijackers.
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UK: The inflationary settlement of the rail
dispute marks another setback for Prime Minister
Heath's wage and industrial relations policies.
After several months of work slowdowns and
negotiations, British Railways and-three labor un-
ions reached an agreement calling for wage increases
of more than 13 percent. This is the second major
blow to Heath's efforts to hold average wage in-
creases at about nine percent. Earlier this year,
a 20-percent wage hike was granted to the coal
miners. Furthermore, the government is faced with
intransigence from the dock workers in the Trans-
port and General Workers' Union (TGWU) over pay and
working conditions. The leaders of the union have
just postponed a national port strike for six weeks.
In the first test of the new Industrial Rela-
tions Act, the rail dispute demonstrated that the
act could neither keep labor on the job nor prevent
an inflationary settlement. The government, through
the National Industrial Relations Court (NIRC),
ordered a cooling-off period and a compulsory ballot
on whether to continue the slowdowns. After the
compulsory ballot produced overwhelming support for
the unions' tactics, the leaders felt they had no
reason to compromise.
The Industrial Relations Act has been further
undermined by a court ruling on 13 June that ab-
solves the TGWU of responsibility for actions of
its shop stewards and sets aside fines levied on
the union by the NIRC. The unions regard this
ruling, which strikes at the heart of the govern-
ment's industrial relations policies, as a monu-
mental victory. The Heath government has not yet
proposed any alternative to the act, but it may
be forced to explore other avenues, such as-arbi-
tration, conciliation, or even some sort of incomes
policy--a measure opposed by Heath up to the pres-
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YUGOSLAVIA: A Muslim from Bosnia-Hercegovina
probably will become the next vice-president for
one year beginning on 2 August.
The constitution provides that the vice-presi-
dent be elected for a one-year term on a rotating
basis from among the members of the collective pres-
idency--three from each republic and two each from
the provinces of Vojvodina and Kosovo. The position
is important in the governmental structure because
the incumbent automatically takes over as a care-
taker president if Tito resigns or dies.
By virtue of his post, the caretaker will play
an important role in post-succession politics, but
he will not dominate the collective presidency.
Presidents after Tito will be elected by their peers
on the collective presidency for a one-year term
according to the rotational system. Tito's title
of president-for-life is a specific constitutional
exception that future leaders are unlikely to achieve.
The leading candidate in the election on 15
July among the Bosnian-Hercegovinian members of
the collective presidency is Hamdija Pozderac. He
is a 49-year-old Muslim ex-professor who has been
described as a dedicated advocate of Yugoslavia's
self-management system and policy of non-alignment.
His election would pose one problem. The present
premier, Dzemel Bijedic, is also a Muslim from
Bosnia-Hercegovina. His and Pozderac's joint terms
in office would create a nationality imbalance at
the top level of the government. Bosnian Muslims
represent only 3.5 percent of the Yugoslav popula-
tion.
The rotation for the five following years will
be Slovenia in 1973, then Serbia, Croatia, Monte-
negro, and the province of Vojvodina in that order,
according to Krste Crvenkovski, the current vice-
president, who represents Macedonia.
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CHILE: New electoral regulations that author-
ize fed- ations of political parties to offer common
lists of candidates improve the prospects for Pres-
ident Allende's coalition in the 1973 congressional
elections. The requirement that federations be
registered by 7 July poses problems for the opposi-
tion Christian Democrats in particular. Party lead-
ers must now commit themselves quickly on the thorny
issue of close cooperation with conservative parties,
the surest way to avert a coalition majority in the
Congress. Such action, however, would be anathema
to the Christian Democratic left and would abandon
the party's hope of forging a leftist political
bloc with moderate breakaway Radicals. The Popular
Unity coalition won the 1970 presidential elections
by exploiting such a split in its opposition.
According to press reports, Allende will an-
nounce his long-awaited new cabinet today. The ad-
justed ministerial lineup will probably be the first
indication of the changes that will be made in eco-
nomic policies as a result of the recent prolonged
m
ti
ee
ng of the Popular Unity parties.
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