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December 14, 2016
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June 17, 2003
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July 11, 1972
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Approved For.,~'lease 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T0097~2230~ 25X1 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret ~1tC'HIV~~L RECO.~D ~~~~~~ ARC,HIV~URN TO SJ~ 11 July 1972 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 25X1 gpproved For Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved For-Tease 2003/OC~i~i~DP79T0097f~22300040001-9 No. 0165/72 11 July 1972 Central Intelligence Bulletin VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1) CHINA-INDOCHINA: Peking looks favorably on Vietnam negotiations. (Page 3) PAKISTAN: Rioting unlikely to threaten national sta- bbl y. (Page 5) USSR-SYRIA: Asad is warmly received. (Page 7) PHILIPPINES: Marcos wins victory in campaign to retain power beyond 1973. (Page 9) ISRAEL:. Mrs. Meir compromises to avert coalition showdown. (Page 10) ARGENTINA: Lanusse suspends Peronist labor confed- eration. (Page 11) CHILE: Opposition and government maneuvering for elections. (Page 12) 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved Fo Release 2003/06`b~~P79T00922300040001-9 bnle Sap THAILAND 'Gulf -of Thailand `"'' MR 4 ~, N ~I OINK ouc r NiNH THUAN SOUTH. VIETNAM 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T0097 - Mekong ~aunN~ ~~~ O4C ~}' s runt-rv nY T~~.r KkkN HUA'~ Approved For lease 2003/(~~~j~~A~DP79T00975~22300040001-9 VgE?I'NAM: F:..ghting has slackened around Quang Tri Ci qty th Vietnamese airborne elements are still in the southwestern section of the city, but their further advance has been delayed by artillery at- tacks and the ~ae11-entrenched Communist defenders. Other airborne forces south of the city have also been subjected to shelling attacks, and mar~.ne units t?~the east and northeast report .light ground contacts ?, P.~t.on elsewhere has been light, except, in the northern Mekong Delta where heavy fighting continues in Dinh Tuong .Province. Enemy troops entered Long Dinh, eight miles went of the provinc^al capital at My Tho and attacked the district. headquarters there. The region commander believes that this action to- gether with the Communists' efforts to clear the area around their nearby Base Area ~7Q are designed to draw government forces away from border areas in Cambodia and to open inf.-Lt.ration corridors to the delta: xuan Thug, North Vietnam's chief negotiator, arrived i.n Paris yesterday amid further a,ndications that the Communists will stick to their standard negotiating demands .n the first of the new public sessions on ThursdayT At an airport press confer- ence, Thuy condemned US bombing and reaffirmed Hanoi's commitment to the Viet Cong's seven points, but he asserted that the Commun~.sts would "gladly examine any new proposals from the US," 1n other recent statements, Communist spokesmen have been adhering to a hard line on negotiations, calling ll Jul.. 72 G'entral Intelligence Bulletin 1 Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved Folease 2003/O~F~*~DP79T00975A'022300040001-9 for an end of the US bombing and mining and re- jecting the possibility of a cease-fire without a political solution, Thuy also indicated that Le Duc Tho, chief adviser to North Vietnam's nego- tiating team, would be returnina to Paris, but he did not specify a time. 11 Ju 1 7 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 pp ov ; r e - - Approved For~,~iease 2003/06~~~P79T009722300040001-9 CHINA-INDOCHINA: Peking appears to be hinting that the time or a negotiated settlement of the war has come. In a banquet speech to a visiting Yemen (Aden) delegation on 9 July, Chou En-lai, citing recent developments in Korea, Japan, and the Indian sub- continent, claimed that the demand for reasonable settlement of mutual disputes had become "an irre- sistible trend" throughout the world. This empha- sis on reasonableness and mutual accommodation was also apparent in an NCNA article on 6 July comment- ing on President Nixon's recent news conference. The article stated that it was still necessary to see "whether the US Government is prepared to end the Vietnam war through negotiations" without spec- ifying that Washington must follow Hanoi's negoti- ating scenario to achieve this end. Chinese propaganda remains strongly critical of US actions in Indochina and continues to demand that the US withdraw rapidly and completely from the peninsula. On the political issues involved in a possible settlement, however, Peking comment is far more ambiguous--as it has been for some time. The NCNA article on the President's news conference, for example, set forth Hanoi's position on this thorny question in reasonable and nonpolemical terms, but carefully refrained from endorsing the North Vietnamese view. Chou En-lai's speech to the visiting Yemenis was even more intriguing with respect to the polit- ical issue. Although he called in standard general- ized terms for a cessation of US support to Presi- dent Thieu, Cambodian President Lon Nol, and the "Laotian rightists" as well as for a US military withdrawal from Indochina, Chou pointed out that the recent agreement between the North and South Koreans and the Indian-Pakistani accord on partial troop withdrawal had been reached without the "superpowers' Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved Fo Release 2003/06~P79T00922300040001-9 control and interference." A People's Daily edito- rial of 8 July on the Korean nego is ions ma es a similar point. This hint that Peking sees advantages in polit- ical talks between Hanoi and Saigon without direct US participation strongly suggests that China may be urging North Vietnam to look again at the US proposal for an immediate cease-fire followed by an eventual political settlement to be worked out di- rectly by the two Vietnamese parties. 11 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 pprove or a ease - - Approved For~'ease 2003/~~DP79T00975,~22300040001-9 PAKISTAN: Rioting in Karachi and other cities in Sind Province is unlikely to threaten the sta- bility of the national government, but the language issue that sparked the unrest will be a continuing problem for local authorities. Urdu speakers took to the streets shortly after the Sind provincial legislature on 7 July passed a bill making Sindhi the official provincial, language. Parts of Karachi--where about half the people are Urdu speakers--were placed under curfew on 9 July, but this proved ineffective. Yesterday the curfew was extended to the entire city and police were told to shoot to kill violators. Troops have been called in, and ver 40 people have been killed in the province. President Bhutto, who met with both Sindhi and Urdu speaking leaders, has appointed a four-member cabinet committee to seek a solution to the language conflict. Security. forces believe the situation is wors- ening, but presently expect to be able to lift the curfew in two or three days. The government's security efforts presumably have the backing of the Sindhi-speaking majority in the, province. This language issue is confined to the Sind and the vio- lence is unlikely to spread to other provinces. Urdu--the mother tongue of only 7.6 percent of the Pakistanis but the most widely read language-- is the official language of the country and of three of the four provinces. In these provinces; where few speak Urdu as a first language, it is generally thought of in literary terms as a lingua franca. Most Urdu speakers--primarily immigrants from India in 1947--live in the cities of the Sind, and Sindhi speakers have long believed these refugees Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved Folease 2003/0~{,;IDP79T009022300040001-9 held a disproportionate share of power in the prov- ince. President Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party draws most of its support in the Sind, Bhutto's hame province, from Sindhi-speakers. Since coming to power the party has sought to enhance the status of Sindhis at the ex ense of the refugees. Central Intelligence Bullet%n 25X1 SECRET Approved For lease 2003/06t~if~P79T009722300040001-9 USSR-SYRIA: Syrian President al-Asad's four- day visit to the USSR reflected the gradually warming atmosphere between Moscow and Damascus. The only agreements signed during the visit concerned economic matters, including the estab- lishment of a bilateral commission for economic and technical cooperation. A Soviet Foreign Min- istry official had remarked before the visit that the talks would concentrate on economic affairs, and the Syrian delegation was comprised primarily of economic officials. The USSR, Syria's chief source of capital for economic development, pro- vides credits for railroad construction, petroleum exploration, and several smaller projects. A $133-million credit was extended in 1966 for con- struction of the Euphrates Dam, which is proceeding at peak levels with more than 1,000 Soviet tech- nicians. The Soviets reportedly have been pressing a reluctant Damascus for a friendship treaty. The Syrians were highly critical of the Soviet-Iraqi friendship treaty, but its signing in April in- creased the pressure on Damascus to accede to such an agreement as well. Moscow's interest in a treaty with Damascus may be shown in the communique that records Soviet-Syrian readiness to expand coopera- tion and to "continue consultations...at various levels on all important international questions." Unlike documents signed with Egypt and Iraq, the Soviet-Syrian communique failed to condemn "anti-communism and anti-Sovietism." Instead, the Syrians agreed to language calling for the "con- sistent struggle against any attempts aimed at undermining friendship and cooperation between 11 Jul 7 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved Folease 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00922300040001-9 SECRET socialist countries and Arab states." The com- muniqu,e did not mention the Confederation of Arab Republics, which has never received Moscow's en- dorsement. There was, moreover, no reference to UN Security Council resolution 242, which calls for Arab recognition of Israel's right to exist and Israel's return of the terri s it occupied in 1967. 11 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For~Yease 2003/0~;~~'-~DP79T009722300040001-9 PHILIPPINES: President Marcos has won an im- portant victory in his campaign to retain political power beyond~1973, but some significant hurdles still remain. On 7 July, the constitutional convention, which was organized last year, voted to replace the presi- dential system with a parliamentary form. Marcos favors such a system because it will circumvent the two-term limitation under the present constitution. Marcos also believes he could more easily be elected prime minister by the legislature than president in a nationwide contest. The margin of victory in the crucial vote in- dicates that Marcos is still in control of the con- stitutional convention despite the recent political scandals over the bribing of delegates by agents of Marcos. While pushing through adoption of the par- liamentary form, Marcos forces defeated opposition efforts to ban Marcos from running for public of- fice in the future. The working draft of the arti- cle on the new form of government must now be sub- mitted to the convention for discussion and amend- ment before a final version can be voted upon, but Marcos should have little difficulty getting the kind of document he wants. Not all of Marcos' problems are solved, how- ever. Anew constitution must still be ratified by a national referendum, and the President's fading popularity may result in the rejection of a consti- tution too closely identified with him. Moreover, there is no certainty that Marcos' Nacionalista -Party .would win a majority in the new National As- sembly'. TYe p~.rty lost six out of .eight contested senate"seats to the opposi"t-ion Liberal Party l:as1~~~. Nowernber; Marcos blames > thee' defeat on --party com~~~ placency, but it is more likely` that"~ the -~esults.~t.: reflected the widespread o ular disillusionment with him personally. Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 11 Jul 72 Central Int~lligenee. Bulbetin SEGR:ET 25X1 Approved For~Release 2003/0~~~~'f~bP79T00975A022300040001-9 ISRAEL: The threat of a major confrontation among the political parties has been sharply re- duced. Prime Minister Meir has agreed to a request from her key coalition partner, the National Reli- gious Party (NRP), that it be permitted to abstain on a Knesset vote on the imposition of stricter religious requirements for immigrants. The measure, which Mrs. Meir opposes., was introduced by a small ultraorthodox religious party, and the NRP had been tempted to support it. Mrs. Meir's permission for the NRP to abstain allows it to stay in-the coali- tion and eliminates a possible showdown that could have resulted in her resignation, the formation of a new government, or new elections, The proposed immigration measures were intra- duced in reaction to a pending bill to provide for civil marriages. The dispute over the civil mar- riage bill is still very much alive. The bill is sponsored by the Independent Liberal Party--the smaller partner in the coalition--which is still determined to press forward with it. Should the Liberals persis , it now appears that Mrs. Meir will force them out of the coalition. The Liberals have only four Knesset seats, and Mrs. Meir can gov- ern effectively without them. The prime minister is still faced with possible defections from the MAPAM section of her own Labor Alignment by those who want to vote for the civil marriage bill. According to a Labor Party spokes- man, the current status of negotiations is "not good." Given Mrs. Meir's willingness to compromise, however, and the fact that neither MAPAM nor the Labor Party want to break up the Alignment or risk new elections the chances of an accommodation seem good. 11 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For~,lease 2003/O~~I~F~DP79T0097~22300040001-9 ARGENTINA: President Lanusse has taken a large political risk in suspending the Peronist labor con- federation and challenging Juan Peron to return for the presidential elections. Reacting to a political statement from the General Labor Confederation (CGT) meeting in Buenos Aires, Lanusse has suspended the legal status of the organization and frozen all of its bank accounts. The CGT, which represents nearly all organized la- bor, had warned the military government of a violent revolution if the will of the people is frustrated in the election next March. The government's heavy- handed response to the CGT declaration could pro- voke strong labor retaliation, but Lanusse appears to have reasoned that the union leaders will not risk losing their funds permanently by further an- tagonizing the military. The government's action against the CGT may also be related to Lanusse's challenge to Peron to return from exile in Madrid by 25 August if he wants to be a candidate in the presidential elec- tion. The sanctions would greatly reduce the Peron- ists' ability to organize massive demonstrations in the event that Peron did return and, if the freeze on funds continues, deprive the Peronists of a valuable source of campaign money. President Lanusse's major gamble is that the old dictator, reluctant to tackle Argentina's se- rious problems and fearful of assassination, will not come back. Lanusse was applauded when he seemed to take himself out of the presidential run- ning and then issued his challenge to Peron in a speech to top military officers last Friday, but the applause could turn to anger and serious lot- ting if he has misjudged Peron. 11 Ju 1 7 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRE'T' 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/25: CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved For'R~lease 2003/06~P79T00922300040001-9 CHILE: Political maneuvering is focusing on electio'- ns-as the government Popular Unity (UP) co- alition strives to overcome its minority electoral image. Although the UP won last week's politically important student elections at the University of Chile, it still pulled only 43 percent of the votes. Its prospects are somewhat better in a legislative by-election on 16 July in one of its strongholds against a candidate supported by all opposition parties. Splits in the coalition divided its majority vote in the still undecided labor confederation elections six weeks ago. The Christian Democrats claim to have won a plurality in Santiago Province, where nearly half the confederation membership is concentrated. Both government and opposition forces now have formed electoral federations for the most important elections, those next March for all national depu- ties and half the senators. Overcoming Socialist objections, the UP has formed a single electoral group. The opposition, unable to solve its many conflicts, registered two electoral federations by the 7 July deadline. This division poses little threat to a continued opposition majority in both houses, but serves President Allende and the Commu- nist Part 's desire to kee their adversaries at odds. 11 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T00975A022300040001-9 Approved Fo Release 2003/06/25 :CIA-RDP79T009022300040001-9 Secret Secret Approved For a ease -