CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022500090001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 12, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
12 August 1972
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No. 0193/72
12 August 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN: Italy and France discuss
forming a Mediterranean group. (Page 2)
ISRAEL: Attention focused again on government pol-
icy toward the Arab population. (Page 3)
FINLAND: Kekkonen in USSR for discussions. (Page 4)
TUNISIA: Bourguiba tries to end discord within
his inner circle. (Page 5)
CHAD-FRANCE: Tough bargaining stance with France.
(Page 6)
LAOS: Political dispute unresolved (Page 7)
KOREA: Red Cross talks (Page 7)
JAPAN-POLAND: $200-million credit (Page 8)
CHILE: Copper tribunal (Page 8)
MEXICO: Warning to the Chinese (Page 9)
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Nhon
Cam
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CSOUTH VIETNAM: Government forces continue to
make some headway in Quang Tri City.
South Vietnamese Marines now hold a key portion
of the main road north of the citadel, thus blocking
at least part of the enemy's supply route into the
fortress. Other South. Vietnamese marine units have
edged closer to its southern and northern walls,
but heavy Communist artillery shelling appears for
the moment to be preventing the entry of these
forces through large breaks in the citadel walls.
Enemy artillery shelling and rocket attacks
throughout the country have increased in recent days,
although Communist ground action. remains at a rela-
tively low level outside of the northern provinces.
The Communists directed ten long-range rockets into
the Pleiku City airfield yesterday, while allied
spotter aircraft thwarted a similar attack in the
Da Nang area. In coastal Binh Dinh Province, mor-
tar barrages hit government positions in Tam Quan
and also a South Vietnamese logistics center at Qui
Nhon. Farther south in Khanh Hoa Province, a com-
bined mortar and sapper attack against Cam Ranh Bay
caused little damage. A similar enemy effort yes-
terday against a heavily defended government staging
area at Lai Khe, north of Saigon, reportedly re-
sulted in only light go, rnment casualties.
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WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN: Italian and French lead-
ers recently discussed the possibility of forming a
Western Mediterranean group to include Spain, Tunisia,
Algeria, Morocco, and perhaps Malta as well as France
and Italy.
The tentative agenda for the initial conference
to set up the group would concentrate on regional
economic aid and technical assistance, tourism, and
environment. It would exclude security matters, thus
differentiating the meeting from a variety of other
Mediterranean conferences proposed in recent months
by Yugoslavia, Algeria, and others.
Both France and Spain, aspiring to increase
their leadership in the area, in recent years have
proposed joint action of Western Mediterranean states.-
Italy has objected to hints of neutralism in pro-
posals for discussing Mediterranean security in such
a forum. Italy has wanted security to remain an un-
diluted NATO responsibility. Rome is accepting the
latest proposal for joint action of Western Mediter-
ranean states perhaps in part because the explicit
exclusion of security discussions protects Italy's
NATO interests.
Because of its exposed position in the Mediter-
ranean and the possibilities of changes in the bal-
ance of power there, Italy also may feel more com-
fortable if it has closer ties with the Western lit-
toral states.
Paris may hope that formation of a Western Med-
iterranean group will strengthen its ties with Spain,
Italy, and the Maghreb and emphasize the Latin as-
pect of Europe in the face of the addition of north-
ern countries in the European Communities. Paris
may also believe that the proposed group would
strengthen France's claim to represent Mediterranean
interests, perhaps even in the Conference on Secu-
rity and Cooperation in Europe.
I I
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ISRAEL: The treatment of a group of Arab vil-
lagers has caused divisions within the government
and has again focused attention on policy toward
the Arab population.
Several hundred Arab citizens of Israel have
been trying to persuade the government to allow them
to move back into their villages on the Lebanese
border from which they were evicted in 1948. The
villagers, who are mostly Christian and who did not
fight against the Israelis in 1948, have received
support from many Israelis, including even Deputy
Prime Minister Yi al Allon.
In addi-
tion, h the left-wing Mapam, a partner in the gov-
ernment alignment, and the opposition right-wing
Gahal have indicated their support of the villagers.
The government says it rejected the villagers'
plea for security reasons, but an important factor
in the prime minister's decision was pressure from
Jewish kibbutzniks who fear loss of some of their
land to their Arab neighbors.
Support by prominent Israeli politicians for
the villagers' cause will increase press and public
interest in the case. It will also increase the
government's reluctance to change its position, be-
cause a government review of the matter in the face
of Gahal opposition would be seen as a victory for
the opposition. It is conceivable that when the
affair quiets down, Mrs. Meir will give in to the
villagers in order to prevent a division of the
Labor Party and the alignment, especially with par-
liamentary elections comin u in the fall of next
year.
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FINLAND: President Kekkonen arrives in the
Soviet Union today under inauspicious circumstances.
The two major projects that he is expected to
discuss, recognition of the two Germanies and an
EC arrangement for Finland, are going badly for
him. The West German cabinet decided on 9 August
to ignore Helsinki's call to open talks aimed at
establishing full diplomatic relations. Approval
of the EC arrangement has been held up because of
wrangling over formation of a new government.
Differences among the four possible coalition
partners have not been narrowed despite nearly a
month of negotiations. The incumbent Social Demo-
crats demand special legislation to protect the
domestic economy from effects of the pending EC
agreement. They are also arguing over how to
fund the expanded pension scheme passed by parlia-
ment over their objections. Kekkonen's Center
Party is so opposed to the Social Democrats' posi-
tions that current alternatives to a majority
coalition now being discussed include a non-politi-
cal caretaker government or a minority coalition
without the Social Democrats. No developments are
anticipated until after Kekkonen returns on 20
August at the earliest.
Kekkonen is expected to meet with Kosygin at
the premier's summer retreat in the Caucasus. Kek-
konen's inability to obtain a coalition cabinet will
permit the Soviets greater latitude in expressing
their preferences on its selection and policies.
It now seems unlikely that the Soviets would flatly
veto a Finnish trade agreement with the EC, for they
recognize that this is an economic necessity for
Helsinki. In return, the Soviets will want the
Finns to stress publicly their continuing relation-
ship with the USSR and to carry on with C CE Prepara-
tions and recognition of both Germanies.
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TUNISIA: President. Bourguiba has attempted to
end dior isc -within his inner circle by shifting one
of his closest advisers to a cabinet post.
On 9 August Bourguiba removed Abdallah Farhat
from his position as director of the cabinet and
named him minister of defense, replacing Bechir
Mhedhebi, who recently lost favor with the Presi-
dent. Bourguiba's action probably came in response
to pressure from other members of his official en-
tourage who have wanted to reduce Farhat's direct
influence on the President. Farhat is accused of
withholding information from Bourguiba and arbitrar-
ily screening the President's appointment schedule.
Bourguiba retains confidence in Farhat, however, and
no doubt is sensitive to the need to have a loyal
supporter in the defense post during the continuing
dispute between the orthodox and liberal factions
of the ruling Destourian Socialist Party over the
liberalization .of Tunisian politics.
Despite persistent rumors of more extensive
cabinet changes, no other appointments are likely
until fall. Several liberals reportedly have de-
clined Bourguiba's offer of cabinet posts, and no
reconciliation between the two factions is likel
in the foreseeable future.
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CHAD-FRANCE: President Tombalbaye apparently
plans to adopt a tough bargaining stance in reaction
to France's termination of budgetary support.
Tombalbaye seems to believe there is room for
maneuver in his present dispute with Paris and means
to play his strongest card for the restoration of
French financial aid by calling into question the
continuation of the French military presence in Chad.
Tombalbaye reportedly intends to announce in the
near future the discovery of an alleged French-
backed plot to overthrow his government. France will
then be requested to renegotiate its 1960 military
accord and certain other cooperation agreements with
Chad.
France maintains an air base and army camp in
Fort Lamy and elements of this force are presently
assigned as a ready reserve to assist the French-
advised Chadian military in operations against Muslim
insurgents. Paris is disgusted with Tombalbaye's
maladministration, however, and would not be dis-
turbed if the current situation results in his fall.
The French probably feel that any successor govern-
ment would have to turn to Paris for support. Paris
has valued the treaty under which it maintains its
military foothold in Chad, but the French commitment
to regional defense is not dependent on the reten-
tion of those bases.
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NOTES
LAOS: Prime Minister. Souvanna's dispute with
the Nat onal Assembly remains unresolved. The power-
ful Sananikone family is again pressuring Souvanna
to reshuffle the cabinet and drop Sisouk as finance
minister in exchange for an assembly vote of confi-
dence that would, in effect, endorse the government's
tripartite facade. Souvanna has been trying to out-
maneuver his opponents, but he suffered a rebuff
yesterday when the assembly refused to consider the
budget until the status of the government has been
clarified. Souvanna probably will seek to delay a
vote of confidence until he either reaches an ac-
ceptable compromise or calculates t ? h has suf-
ficient strength to win this test.
KOREA: The agreement to begin plenary sessions
of the Rec. Cross talks in Pyongyang on 30 August
represents a compromise by, both sides. The North
has gained time to prepare for the arrival of the
South Koreans, which Pyongyang's earlier delaying
tactics suggested was needed. It has also succeeded
in reducing the size of the delegation proposed by
Seoul and in dictating what foreign correspondents
will be permitted to observe the first meeting.
Seoul, on the other hand, has obtained agreement
to "reserve" discussion on Pyongyang's demand that
representatives of political and social organizations
be invited to the talks--an issue that is nonetheless
likely to become a stumbling block in future discus-
sions. The South Koreans probably hope to use the
talks, which they will host on 13 September, to but-
tress their case for postponement of UN consideration
of the Korean question next month. Seoul contends
that the debate could Jeopardize the North-South
dialogue. F777 I
(continued)
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JAPAN-POLAND: Several major Japanese trading
firms have Joint y extended a $200-million credit
t-o Poland to finance purchases of Japanese industrial
goods. The credit reflects increasing efforts by
businessmen to expand sales to Communist countries.
It will boost exports to Poland, which last year
reached $43 million, double the 1970 level. Earlier
this year Japanese banks made available smaller trade
credits to East Germany and Bulgaria, and negotiations
for additional loans are under way with other East
European countries. These II efforts have been
encouraged by the Tanaka government, which recently
revived the use of Export-Import Bank credits to
Finance sales to China.
[CHILE: US copper companies have no further
legal avenues open through which to seek compensa-
tion for mines expropriated by the Allende govern-
ment. After ten months of delay, the special copper
tribunal decided yesterday that it had no competence
to review the President's decision that left the
companies, rather than the government, in debt.
Allende's formula was to deduct as "excess profits"
a sum greater than the compensation due to the US
firms. Company lawyers plan to appeal the court's
move, but without any real hope of winning compensa-
tion. Whatever the legal merits of the case, the
government has neither the will nor the resources
to grant compensation beyond the minor settlements
already completed.
(continued)
1.2 Aug 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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MEXICO: President Echeverria has bluntly
warned-tie-new Chinese ambassador that he will be
expected to respect Mexican principles of noninter-
vention and self-determination. During the formal
credentials ceremony the President, well known for
his frank public comments, told the Chinese diplomat
that he was beginning relations with the Chinese
Peoples' Republic "without fear or suspicions."
He cautioned, however, that in Mexico, only Mexican
solutions will be applied and "these are the rules
of the game." Echeverria, as a former minister of
interior, has long been concerned about the espionage
activities of Communist embassies in Mexico City.
In March 1971 he expelled five Soviet diplomats
following the disclosure that a North Korean --trained
guerrilla group had set up shop in Mexico. Members
of this group were studying in Moscow at the time of
their recruitment, so in Echeverria's eyes the USSR
bore final responsibility for this interference in
Mexican affairs.
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Secret
Secret
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