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December 14, 2016
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June 26, 2003
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September 16, 1972
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Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A022800020Siet D DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret N2 042 25X1 16 September 1972 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 Approved For Release 2003/08/O?E&X--1 79T00975A022800020001-6 No. 0223/72 16 September 1972 Central Intelligence Bulletin VIETNAM: Government forces claim victory in Quang Tri. (Page 1) CHINA: Campaign to discredit Lin Piao enters new phase. (Page 2) 25X6 YUGOSLAVIA: Foreign trade is strong but inflation continues. (Page 5) ALGERIA-USSR: President Boumediene to visit Moscow. (Page 6) MEXICO: More terrorist activity feared (Page 7) UK: Trade recovery likely (Page 7) GHANA: Greater fiscal responsibility (Page 8) CHILE - EAST GERMANY: Pankow extends credits (Page 8) Approved For Release 2003/081'05' t:I/ - P79T00975A022800020001-6 Approved For Release 2003/08/0?~& R6 79TOO975AO22800020001-6 CITADEL. -Gov*q ent fo rces-recaptt re Base Area'4iO. ..Quan Loi An Loc Tien Phuoc Approved For Release 2003/08/Of,( R tpP79TOO975AO22800020001-6 SECRET Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 VIETNAM: South Vietnamese Marines claim to have gained control of the citadel in Quang Tr.i City. At least two Marine battalions are inside the cita- del and an enemy command post for defense of the fortress has been overrun. Fighting outside the citadel was less intense, but the Communists have stepped up their artillery attacks against Marine and Ranger positions in the city's southern and northern sectors. Fighting was light in the other four provinces of Military Region (MR) 1 on 15 September, although the Communists are still trying to expand their newly won footholds in the coastal lowlands. 25X1 ern delta, and in Dinh Tuong Province where the Communists already have amassed sizable forces in In the southern half of the country, fighting picked up somewhat in the An Loc area where govern- ment troops are trying to recapture the city's airport. Several sharp engagements have been fought in this sector in recent days, and there are indi- cations that the enemy may soon offer more determined resistance. Sharp contacts continued in the delta, with enemy forces maintaining pressure against government outposts close to supply and infiltration corridors. Most of the action on 15 September was near the Cam- bodian border in Chau Doc Province, through which the enemy has been infiltrating units into the south- Base Area 470. 16 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/05BIM Pj79T00975AO22800020001-6 CHINA: The ongoing campaign to discredit for- mer defense minister Lin Piao has entered a new phase that appears to have as much current as his- torical significance. The new round was kicked off in August by an authoritative article in the party theoretical jour- nal, Red Flag. While calling for continued vigilance against "class enemies," the article asserted that intraparty strife will inevitably surface every few years but that these periods of chaos are always followed by order. The message in Red Flag and in more recent provincial broadcasts seems to be that the excesses of the Cultural Revolution, now being blamed on Lin, are a thing of the past and that the current struggle at the top will not be allowed to disrupt life throughout the country. These attempts to reassure jittery cadres, who have been braced for another purge during the year since Lin's demise, are falling short. The current campaign itself is a double-edged sword, requiring participants not only to expose Lin's misdeeds but to examine their own political attitudes. Cadres, perplexed that the anti-Lin campaign has continued so long after Lin's downfall, apparently are inter- preting the prolonged denunciation of Lin as a sign that more heads will roll. Indeed, the regime's failure to wrap up the anti-Lin drive has given rise to grass roots speculation on the fate of a number of provincial leaders. In recent weeks, party bosses of three provinces in east China have been rumored to be under arrest. These and other rumors may not necessarily be true, but local cadres seem convinced that the con- flict among the top leadership has not ended with Lin's downfall, and the new phase of the anti-Lin campaign is likelv to fan their fears. 16 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/g.Ej P79T00975AO22800020001-6 25X6 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 Approved For Release 2003/08/06F&44;FbW79T00975A022800020001-6 YUGOSLAVIA: The strong performance of the for- eign trade is continuing, but Belgrade is having less success coping with inflation.. The government's policy of stimulating exports and restricting imports has helped to reduce Yugo- slavia's chronic trade deficit. Exports have cov- ered more than 70 percent of imports so far this year, in contrast to less than one half of imports last year. The continued growth in earnings from tourism and remittances from workers abroad has led the National Bank Governor to predict that Yugoslavia will realize a current account surplus this year for the first time since 1965. On the domestic front, stabilization efforts are meeting with less success. The federal govern- ment's inability to control spending at the republic level, coupled with strong increases in personal in- comes and the money supply, has fueled the persist- ent inflationary trend. Despite a price freeze that was in effect from November 1971 through March 1972, prices probably will rise by almost 15 percent this year. In the past, large price increases have brought about worker demands for another round of wage increases.. _ Largely as a result of the government's restric- tions on imports, some enterprises are experiencing shortages in supplies of raw materials which, in turn, may slow economic growth. If the shortages persist, the government's export drive may be threat- ened in the latter part of 1972 and early next year. In addition, larger than normal imports of wheat, corn, and vegetable oil will be necessary to s ment the mediocre 1972 harvest. 16 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/08%V P79T00975A022800020001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/0$Ct79T00975A022800020001-6 ALGERIA-USSR: President Boumediene reportedly has accepted an invitation to visit the USSR some- time during November and he may also travel to East- ern Europe. Boumediene would like to engage in serious ne- gotiations for more favorable terms for Soviet aid. To impress this point on the Soviets, he is sending Minister of State Cherif Belkacem to Moscow on 2 October for eight days of preliminary talks. Belkacem, who is also president of the Soviet-Al- gerian Friendship Society, has been instructed to grant a Soviet request to stage a film and graphic arts exhibit in Algeria this fall. The major purpose of the President's travels is to obtain economic aid without making any major concessions. Also important is Boumediene's appar- ent need to bolster his image at home as an influ- ential international figure and thereby divert ub- lic attention away-] from domestic problems. 25X1 16 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/OI TBIX-WDP79T00975A022800020001-6 Approved For Release 2003/08/0,$E' Ff Jr79T00975A022800020001-6 NOTES CMEXICO: Security officials fear that more bombs will be exploded in outlying sections of the capital today while President Echeverria reviews the Independence Day parade in the main plaza. No particular group has yet claimed credit for the bombs that rocked downtown Mexico City yesterday Meanwhile, the army is eeping a wary eye on Guerrero State where Lucio Cabanas and his guerrillas are expected to attempt another "spectacular" sometime this weekend. Two army patrols have been ambushed in recent weeks, and there have been rumors that Cabanas might to occupy an urban er in a show of force. * * * UK: The change in Britain's trade position from a surplus in July to a near-record $473-million deficit in August reflects both the dock strike and statistical aberrations. Most of the deficit re- sults from customs reporting procedures that under- stated exports. The trade account should improve appreciably in coming months as the backlog of ex- port goods from the strike is reduced. It will also benefit from the drop in the value of sterling since th e currency was floated in late June. (continued) 16 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/ 1 FDP79T00975A022800020001-6 01 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/OfzE I4 5F79T00975A022800020001-6 GHANA: Accra's budget statement for the fiscal year endzng in June 1973 calls for a $34-million sur- plus to slow inflation, but this may not be possible to achieve without foreign aid. The budget appar- ently incorporates suggestions made by World Bank officials and is evidence of Ghana's intention to pursue greater fiscal responsibility. This could open the door to constructive consultation between Accra and its foreign creditors and donors regard- ing cooperative efforts to resolve the nation's for- eign debt problems and meet its economic development needs. Ghana's Western creditors have been awaiting the budget statement because it will play a signifi- cant part in creditor discussions set or early Oc- tober in London. F77 I CHILE - EAST GERMANY: Some features of East Germany's first credit extensions to Chile should be particularly welcome to Santiago, which is ex- tremely short of foreign exchange. Although an- nounced as a $20-million development credit repay- able over eight to ten years, two contracts amount- ing to more than one third of the pact have been signed for medical instruments and tractors. These items probably will be delivered during the next year. In addition to the development credit, Pan- kow extended a $2-million short-term credit to cover Chilean imports of East German foodstuffs. 16 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0i)69,'.iDP79T00975A022800020001-6 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO22800020001-6