CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022800040001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 19, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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D
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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19 September 1972
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No. 0225/72
19 September 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Communists overrun district town in Quang
Ngai. -(Page 1)
LEBANON: A fedayeen-army clash could shake the
country. (Page 2)
CHINA: Rustication program cut back. (Page 4)
UGANDA: Border fighting. (Page 7)
CHILE: Independence Day weekend passing quietly
despite coup rumors. (Page 8)
BAHAMAS: Elections today may spark some disturb-
ances. (Page 9)
CHINA-GHANA: Aid resumed (Page 10)
USSR-UN: Disarmament debate (Page 10)
AUSTRIA-EC: Free trade pact assured (Page 11)
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Da Nang:'
Que Son
Jien Phuoc.
CHUONG THIEN
o Duc
Threatened
Ba Tq.,- uc Pho
F 'Overrun by 0"ommunists
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C VIETNAM: Enemy troops have overrun the dis-
trict caps atat l of Ba To in Quang Ngai Province. They
also are threatening two more district seats--Mo
Duc and Duc Pho--and are readying additional forces
farther north for attacks in Son Tinh and Binh Son
districts. The Communist attacks are being conducted
by units from the enemy's 2nd Division which was
brought into the area from the central highlands in
late June.
South Vietnamese 2nd Division troops so far
have had little success slowing the enemy's advance.
General Truong, the government's commander for Mili-
tary Region 1, reportedly considers the situation
critical and is planning to send reinforcements if
further setbacks occur.
In Quang Tri Province, South Vietnamese marines
continue their efforts to eliminate remaining pockets
of enemy resistance in the citadel. Fighting was
moderate in the provincial capital, where South
Vietnamese ranger and. airborne troops reportedly
have captured several tons of Communist weapons and
ammunition.
There are additional indications that the Com-
munists may be planning to attack government posi-
tions in Thua Thien Province in an effort to divert
South Vietnamese units from the Quang Tri area.
In the delta, Communist units kept up their
pressure against government outposts, hitting sev-
eral of them in Dinh Tuong and Kien Hoa provinces
and farther south in Chuong Thien and Kien Giang.
Many of the other small unit attacks were aimed at
transportation routes.
19 Sep 72
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LEBANON: The country's delicate and complex
politica structure could once again be shaken, if
a clash between the fedayeen and the army is not
averted.
Meetings between representatives of the fedayeen
and the Lebanese Government, led by Yasir Arafat and
Prime Minister Salam respectively, have been taking
place since Sunday, and both sides have made con-
ciliatory statements, The information office of
the Palestine Liberation Organization in Beirut has
stated that the army's "request" to the fedayeen to
evacuate their strongholds in the south was not cast
in the form of an ultimatum. Nevertheless, inci-
dents between army units and fedayeen could easily
occur and very possibly jeopardize any deal reached
between Arafat and Salam.
Moreover, since Lebanon's two main political
groups--the Sunni Muslims and the Maronite Chris-
tians--are sharply divided over fedayeen activities,
a direct clash between the army and the fedayeen
could precipitate the collapse of the government
and perhaps even civil war. Radical Sunni Muslims
and leftists in Parliament are now calling for
complete freedom of action for the fedayeen in
Lebanon, and this theme has been echoed in Pales-
tinian, Egyptian, and Syrian propaganda directed
to Lebanon. On the other hand, the Christians and
the Shia Muslims of the south, who have borne the
brunt of Israeli retaliation, are supporting the
army's efforts to keep the fedayeen out of populated
areas near the border. Serious disturbances oc-
curred in 1969 and 1970 as a result of government
efforts to curb the fedayeen, and the country was
without a formal government for seven months during
1969.
Meanwhile, Arab fears that Syria might be the
next Israeli target were reflected in an announce-
ment issued yesterday by the council of ministers
19 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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of the Confederation of Arab Republics (CAR), which
includes Syria, Libya, and Egypt. The CAR's com-
munique' stated that any aggression against one of
its member states would be considered as an attack
on the entire confederation. The announcement is
largely rhetorical, and there is no doubt that
Egypt is reluctant to become involved in any mili-
tary action with Israel. Nonetheless, if a large-
scale attack against Syria were mounted by Israel,
Cairo might be forced to make some kind of token
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CHINA: Peking apparently has sharply reduced
the scope of its rustication program in response
to popular and political pressures.
The official Chinese news agency (NCNA) an-
nounced on 10 September that 400,000 young people
have been sent to the countryside this year. This
figure represents a significant decline. During
the three preceding years, it is estimated that
well over three million youths were assigned each
year to live and work in rural areas. NCNA's
figure probably is close to the total for this year,
because the announcement was timed to include as-
signments of recent high school graduates this past
summer. Indeed, travelers from the south China
city of Canton reported that only 30 percent of these
students received rural assignments while 70 per-
cent have been assigned to work in factories in
the city. In the past these percentages have been
reversed.
The cutback probably results from a directive
issued last February by the party central committee
liberalizing the rustication regulations.
the directive stipulates
that young people may be reassigned to the cities
if they are ill, if they have good work records in
the rural areas, or if they are the only child in
the family.
Originally conceived as a means to spur de-
velopment in the backward rural areas, rustication
in recent years has been used to punish recalcitrant
Red Guards, maintain discipline over other rambunc-
tious youths, and alleviate urban unemployment.
The program has created more problems than it has
solved, however. Disgruntled young people, unac-
customed to the rigors of primitive rural life,
have returned to the cities illegally and in un-
manageable numbers and have resorted to crime to
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support themselves. Their presence in Canton con-
tributed to a security breakdown in that city this
summer. Rural authorities responsible for control-
ling rusticated young people have in some cases
refused to accept any more assignees.
The rustication policy has been attacked at the
highest levels of the Chinese leadership. A document
circulated last spring as part of the effort to
denigrate former defense minister Lin Piao condemns
the program as labor reform. The regime's decision
to relax the unpopular program is probably based in
part on a desire to defuse her criticism.
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,Kabble
Towns captured
by insurgents
TANZANIA
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C UGANDA: The army appears to have checked the
attack by Ugandan dissidents from Tanzania, but
the situation remains confused.
The Uganda radio claims that government troops
have repulsed an attack on the military garrison
at Mbarara and are moving to recapture three towns
seized by the rebel force. The insurgents may well
have hoped they would set off a popular uprising
that would allow the return to power of former pres-
ident Milton Obote.
Tanzania has moved additional troops to the
border with instructions not to provoke any inci-
dents or cross into Uganda. This movement, however,
increases the possibility of clashes along the bor-
der should Ugandan troops run the invaders back
out of the country.
Kampala is reported quiet, but tense. About
80 Europeans and eight Americans have been arrested,
most on charges of lacking proper identification.
A government spokesman has indicated they may soon
be released. No attacks on foreigners have been
reported, but Amin's accusation of British and
Israeli complicity in the invasion will increase
the danger to British and Jewish citizens.
Amin will continue to face considerable prob-
lems even if the attack is repulsed. His policies
have produced a stagnating economy and a seriously
deteriorated security situation. Army officers op-
posed to Amin could yet take advantage of the cur-
rent crisis and attempt to oust him. If Amin stays,
reprisals are likely to be carried out within
Uganda against members of the tribal groups that
made up the bulk of the insurgents, and there is
likely to be more intertribal fighting within the
army.
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SECRET
CHILE: The long Independence Day weekend so
far has passed quietly, despite rumors and press
speculation that a coup would take place.
Government spokesmen have publicized what they
label the "September Plan," allegedly a scheme
hatched by opposition politicians and private busi-
nessmen to overthrow President Allende. The plan
reportedly calls for generating enough violence in
the streets of Santiago to force the military to in-
tervene to restore order--and then retain power.
Political violence has been on the rise in past
weeks, and the Chilean plotters mentioned in the
"September Plan" have been behind at least some of
it. Opponents of the government have raised polit-
ical tensions by exploiting the country's economic
problems. As a result, the restraints on military
intervention have eroded in recent months, and talk
of a coup strikes a responsive chord among more
military officers than previously. Despite these
problems, the government retains important factors
in its favor, such as the continued reluctance of
the senior army commanders to move and the lack of
any effective anti-Allende military leader around
whom critics can gather.
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BAHAMAS: Today's election is likely to be
close, alt ough Prime Minister Pindling's Progres-
sive Liberal Party (PLP) appears to have a slight
edge.
Clearly defined issues are lacking, but there
are conflicting views among the parties about the
timing of independence from Britain and the need
for greater compensation from the US for its de-
fense installations. The PLP has promised to press
for early independence, even though there appears
to be little public enthusiasm for such a move.
The opposition Free National Movement (FNM) led by
Cecil Wallace-Whitfield favors independence, but
would concentrate first on improving the deterio-
rating economic situation. In the case of the US
bases, the opposition would be less likely than the
PLP to make new demands.
The PLP has been campaigning largely on tra-
ditional nationalist themes with racial overtones.
The opposition is running white candidates in seven
of the 38 districts, while the PLP is appealing pri-
marily to the 80 percent of the population that is
black. A 19-to-19 split in the legislature is a
distinct possibility. In that event, the British
governor-general would name the person to form the
next government.
Both parties have been threatening violence
if they lose, and a tie or close vote would increase
the likelihood of disturbances. In the unlikely
event of widespread disorders, the Bahamas' small
security force would be hard pressed a would prob-
ably have to seek British assistance.
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NOTES
CHINA-GHANA: Agreements signed on 14 September
represent the first formal resumption of aid to
Ghana by any Communist country since Nkrumah's ouster
in 1966. It is also the first new aid commitment
from any source to Ghana since the National Redemp-
tion Council seized power last January. Peking and
Accra, in reaching a new trade and payments agree-
ment, also decided to resume aid under agreements
signed in 1961 and 1964. The Ghanaians had drawn
only $3.5 million of total credits of $42 million
when the Chinese were forced to close their embassy
in Accra in 1966. The new agreements cover some
additional projects, possibly on more liberal terms.
Implementation will be gradual, with Chinese sur-
veys scheduled before negotiations take place on
specific projects.
USSR-UN: Moscow's proposal that the General
Assembly consider an "urgent item" on non-use of
force in international relations. and a ban on the
use of nuclear weapons is intended in part to pre-
empt the Chinese in the annual disarmament debate.
Last year Peking sought to counter the Soviets'
call for a world disarmament conference by advo-
cating prior agreement on no-first-use of nuclear
weapons. The formal USSR request is for Assembly
adoption of a resolution "strengthening international
security."
(continued)
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AUSTRIA-EC: Parliamentary approval next month
of the Austrian-EC industrial free trade arrangement
is assured by an understanding between the Socialist
government majority and the opposition People's
party. The government has agreed to implement a
number of investment programs and financial subsidies
to cushion possible adverse effects of the agreement
on some economic interests. Soviet concern that
the EC arrangement would create unfavorable condi-
tions for the USSR in Austrian markets probably was
assuaged by the signing of a ten-year Soviet-Austrian
trade pact last week.
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Secret
Secret
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