CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022900090001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 7, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 41
7 October 1972
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No. 0241/72
7 October 1972
'Cent~al Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Sharp fighting north of Saigon. (Page 1)
INDIA-US: Increase in anti-American oratory.
Page 2
INTERNATIONAL OIL: Libya demands 50-percent partic-
ipation in Western oil firm operations. (Page 3)
UGANDA-TANZANIA: Agreement probably glosses over
sharp i ferences. (Page 4)
CHINA: New Public Security minister appointed.
Page 5)
ARGENTINA: Peronists and military leaders lay foun-
dations for negotiations. (Page 6)
BURMA: Arrests reflect Rangoon's uneasiness over
prospect of urban unrest. (Page 7)
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO - CARIBBEAN: Heads of Govern-
ment Conference set for 9-14 October. (Page 8)
PAKISTAN: Dissatisfaction with Bhutto leadership
(Page 9)
GATT: Parties likely to support US call for compre-
hensive talks (Page 9)
UN - SOUTH-WEST AFRICA: UN special representative's
visit Page 10)
TUNISIA-CHINA: Aid agreement (Page 10)
CAMBODIA: Phnom Penh attacked (Page 11)
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VIETNAM: Sharp fighting has erupted north of
Sai on o owing a series of Communist attacks against
government positions along Route 13. Hardest hit
were a number of outposts near the Saigon River a
few miles northwest of the Binh Duong provincial
capital; South Vietnamese forces turned back several
enemy ground probes on 6 October.
Heavy mortar fire accompanied the attacks,
which apparently were carried out by enemy sapper
units and designed to mask the movement of main
force units and supplies closer to the capital. US
pilots also report signs of extensive enemy activity
and substantial troop movement along the Saigon
River west of Lai Khe.
The attacks could signal the start of the ex-
pected early October "hi h oint."
In the northern provinces, heavy fighting con-
tinues in Quang Ngai Province. The government has
d
made some progress in clearing operations aroun
several district capitals along the coast.
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INDIA-US: The recent increase in anti-American
orat y by ranking Indian officials could signal fur-
ther deterioration in bilateral relations.
The deterioration in Indo-US relations has been
in progress for several months. A New Delhi policy
review under way for some time has complicated edu-
cational and cultural exchanges with the US. Sci-
entific cooperation, which had continued normal
].v
until early last summer, will probably decline,
Mrs. Gandhi has long harbored suspicions re-
garding American activities in India. Moreover,
until recently Mrs. Gandhi had several outstanding
issues--national and state elections, and the war
with Pakistan--to occupy the public's attention.
She has none now, and with India's harvest below
average this year--grain imports may even be neces-
sary--she may feel the need to create a scapegoat
to distract attention from rising food prices and
other economic problems which have led to popular
discontent and demonstrations. Mrs. Gandhi has
come under attack for failure to make progress on
her campaign promise to "eliminate poverty."
e government may attempt to prove
its allegations against the US by declarin an Amer-
ican official in India persona non grata.
7 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INTERNATIONAL OIL: Libya is demanding 50-per-
cent participation in the operations of the Bunker-
Hunt Oil Company.
Bunker-Hunt, the survivor of a partnership with
British Petroleum which was nationalized in Decem-
ber, has until 19 October to respond. Tripoli's
demand, which follows the recent agreement with the
Italian state oil company for joint ownership, prob-
ably will be presented, in turn, to other companies
in Libya. All the companies, however, probably will
adopt a unified stand in resisting the demand, even
at the risk of complete nationalization, to avoid
jeopardizing the tentative participation agreement
concluded Thursday between the Arab Persian Gulf
states and the Western oil companies.
The Gulf states' agreement will provide for
initial participation below 50 percent, probably
about 20 percent, increasing to 51 percent over a
period of years. Compensation to be paid to the
oil companies is to be based on a modified book
value that is considerably above net book value.
The companies clearly intend to try and maintain
present price levels. In order to do this they
probably will raise prices to consumers by about
ten cents per barrel at the initial level of partic-
ipation and about 25 cents per barrel at 51-percent
participation.
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UGANDA-TANZANIA: The peace agreement signed
by the two countries earlier this week in Mogadis-
cio probably only glosses over their sharp differ-
ences.
Details of the agreement, concluded under the
auspices of Somalia and the Organization of African
Unity, have not been announced. The Ugandan dele-
gation reportedly came to Mogadiscio with demands
that Tanzania admit involvement in the-guerrilla
invasion of Uganda last month and that Uganda's
ex-president Obote and his followers be removed
from Tanzania. It is unlikely that Tanzanian Pres-
ident Nyerere agreed to either of these conditions.
The uneasy peace, interrupted by occasional
flare-ups, that has existed between the two coun-
tries for almost two years is likely to continue.
Any lasting resolution of the dispute probably de-
pends on a meeting between Amin and Nyerere, but
Nyerere, who does not recognize the Amin regime,
refuses. For his part Amin charged this week that
Tanzania and other countries were planning to invade
Uganda.
Meanwhile, repression of real or imagined op-
position elements in Uganda continues. Several im-
portant Baganda tribesmen have been killed, detained,
or have "disappeared." Large numbers of Acholi and
Lango, tribes that made up most of the invading
guerrilla force, have been murdered by army troops.
Some departing Asians are being robbed, beaten, or
killed, and police have started to pick up univer-
sity students. Security forces have avoided inci-
dents with white residents during the past few
weeks, but with Amin's announcement of an invasion
threat and rumors that disorders may erupt during
independence anniversary celebrations this weekend
the situation could change quickly. F77 I
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CHINA: The appointment of a new Public Secu-?
rity minister indicates that Peking may finally be
making some progress in breaking the personnel log-
jam at the top.
The official Chinese news agency on 5 October
identified Li Chen as minister of Public Security
in reporting an airport reception for a visiting
foreign delegation. Li is the seventh military man
among the nine new government ministers named since
the Cultural Revolution. The sensitive security
post is the first ministerial position to be filled
since the appointment last January of a new foreign
minister.
The appointment comes amid other signs that
Peking is now moving to fill some high-level posts.
Wang Hung Wen, a young radical from Shanghai, was
called to Peking in mid-September and has appeared
regularly with top party officials. He
as-
below the Politburo, suggesting that
sumed an important party post. Late last month the
regime ' `f'ed a new head of its official news
agency.]
Although these developments do not necessarily
presage a rash of high-level appointments in the
near future, other top jobs in the party and govern-
ment may now be filled at a somewhat faster rate.
it may be more difficult, however, to fill the im-
portant military posts that have been vacant since
i-he Lin P' o affair last autumn. F_ I
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ARGENTINA: The Peronists and the military lead-
ers have laid the foundation for serious negotiations
on the coming elections and the government that will
follow.
The ten-point "reconstruction plan" presented
to the military government by Hector Campora, Juan
Peron's personal delegate, indicates that several
points of agreement have already been reached. In
a statement conveying the government's favorable
response to the plan, the presidential press secre-
tary emphasized the coincidence of government and
Peronist views in several areas. In a similarly
optimistic vein, Campora said that if an agreement
is reached, Peron will return to Argentina to sign
it.
The points of agreement in the Peronist pro-
posal include the strengthening of national sover-
eignty, changes in economic and social policy,
and lifting of the state of siege, and the need for
agreement of all political parties on the new elec-
toral law. The plan also includes many issues on
which the government and Peronists disagree, but
even the points of strong difference, such as the
law that bars Peron's candidacy because he was not
in the country on 25 August, were couched in con-
ciliatory terms.
The military and the Peronists have been unable
to reconcile their differences in the 17 years
since Peron was overthrown and, despite the encour-
aging signs today, it is unlikely that an accord
will be easily reached. There is, however, a strong
desire on both sides to overcome their differences
and end the succession of weak civilian governments
interspersed with periods of military rule that
has characterized Argentine politics since 1955.
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BURMA: The arrest of over 40 suspected support-
ers = exiled resistance leader U Nu reflects Ran-
goon's uneasiness over the prospect of urban unrest.
The arrests on 4 October apparently stemmed
from the capture in Rangoon of an armed insurgent
who claimed to be a member of a 20-man group trained
in the exile bases in Thailand and assigned a sabo-
tage mission in Rangoon. Foremost among those ar-
rested was ex-Brigadier Aung Gyi. A former colleague
of Ne Win, he has been out of favor for nearly a
decade because of his opposition to Burma's social-
ist course. The Rangoon regime has long kept him
under close watch because of his suspected sympathy
for U Nu. The government probably feared that
those arrested could become focal points of open
popular resistance--which has so far been prevented
by tight security controls.
Until now, the Burmese Government has discounted
with some justification the military threat of U
Nu's three-year-old resistance movement, which has
been largely confined to a shallow strip in south--
east Burma along the Thai border. Rangoon has shown
concern, however, over recent deeper penetrations
by rebel bands much closer to the capital. The Ne
Win government is particularly disturbed over, any
indications of urban terrorism at this time when
disgruntlement over rice shortages might make the
populace more receptive to rebel propaganda.
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TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO - CARIBBEAN: The Common-
wealth Caribbean Heads of Government Conference will
be held in Port of Spain from 9 to 14 October.
The conference will be hosted by Prime Minister
Eric Williams; the prime ministers of Guyana, Ja-
maica, and Barbados will attend, along with other
leaders in the region. Although no agenda has been
released, Prime Minister Burnham of Guyana is likely
to raise the issue of recognition of Cuba. The sub-
ject would receive favorable treatment from Williams,
who has long supported re-integration of Cuba into
the Inter-American system. This position is con-
sistent with his desire to demonstrate Trinidad and
Tobago's third world credentials and improve his
standing among Caribbean leaders.
Williams has only recently turned his attention
to foreign policy, following the black power demon-
strations and the subsequent mutiny in the military
that nearly toppled his government in 1970. Now
that he has demonstrated complete control over party
and domestic affairs, he apparently intends to play
an increasingly active role in Caribbean affairs.
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NOTES
PAKISTAN: The resignation of Law Minister
Kasuri is symptomatic of growing disagreement in the
ruling Pakistan People's'Party (PPP) with President
Bhutto's authoritarian leadership. Kasuri, one of
the most important PPP leaders in the Punjab from
which the party draws most of its strength, resigned
apparently because Bhutto refused to modify his po-
sition that Pakistan should have a presidential form
of government on the French model. Kasuri, who is
chairman of the constitutional drafting committee,
strongly favors a parliamentary system. There have
been several other signs of unhappiness with Bhutto
lately, including a short-lived rebellion late last
month by over a third of the party's national as-
f
or
semblymen, who were seeking immunity from arrest
legislators. Bhutto still appears to have the sup-
port of most of the party, but should Kasuri's move
prompt other disgruntled PPP leaders to defect, the
president could face serious problems .
GATT: At their meeting next month, the contract-
ing parties to the General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade are likely to support the US call for compre-
hensive trade negotiations next year. GATT's Direc-
tor General Long proposed at an informal "heads of
delegations" meeting that member countries commit
themselves to wide-ranging trade discussions as well
as to serious consideration of the interests of less
developed countries. Long also pointed out that the
European Community (EC) cannot begin negotiations
on EC tariffs until enlargement of the EC is made of-
ficial. The EC should, however, be able to do so
immediately after ratification by the new members
and in time to permit the opening of formal ne otia-
fiong a+- GATT's November sP_ssion:_F_
(continued)
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UN SOUTH-WEST AFRICA: The visit to Pretoria
of the secretary-general's new special representa-
tive on South-West Africa (Namibia), beginning on
Monday, may determine whether Waldheim will be able
to continue his efforts to move South-West Africa
toward independence. South Africa controls South-
West Africa despite UN resolutions and an Interna-
tional Court of Justice opinion that South Africa's
presence there is illegal. Waldheim has said he
cannot continue his efforts unless the government in
Pretoria makes some concrete gesture of compromise.
If no progress is made, the Security Council is
likely to withdraw its support of Waldheim's efforts.
In this event, other African states may join with
the Soviet Union and China to push for sanctions
against South Africa. Pretoria would like to appear
receptive, but its actions in recent months hold out
little hope that its desire for cooperation is gen-
uine. The government has continued to press its
"homelands" policy of moving territories toward
nominal independence. It has also banned the act-
ing leader of the South-West African People's Organ-
ization, and has expelled the outspoken Anglican
bishop of South-West Africa.
TUNISIA-CHINA: Tunis and Peking have concluded
their first bilateral economic aid agreement, high-
lighting a slight improvement in relations between
the two countries. The Chinese Embassy, closed in
1967 when Tunisia objected to Peking's propaganda
activities, was reopened early this year and a few
official visits have been exchanged. The agreement
calls for a loan of about $40 million to finance
Tunisian development projects and contains provisions
for imports of commodities to cover local costs.
Specific projects to be covered have not yet been
decided but, given the existence of sizable, unused
Soviet and East European credits, the Tunisians may
be expected to proceed slowly in drawing on this new
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CCAMBODIA: In their boldest action in the Phnom'-
Penh area in some four months, the Communists early
today carried out sapper attacks and shellings agains
several installations within the capital's environs.
Preliminary reports indicate that the Communists
caused considerable damage to one of the city's two
main bridges and to a nearby military camp contain-
ing armored personnel vehicles, communist rocket
fire against Phnom Penh's airfield apparently re-
sulted in only light damage and casualties, however.
At last report, the situation had stabilized--al-
though some small fire fights were continuing on the
city's outskirts.
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