CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023000030001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 16, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
16 October. 1972
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SECRET
No. 0248/72
16 October 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist forces appear to be
preparing for a major effort in the Saigon area.
(Page 1)
CAMBODIA: The new government includes no opposi-
tion elements. (Page 2)
CHILE: Truck owners refuse settlement. (Page 4)
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EGYPT-USSR: Moscow and Cairo begin reconciliation
talks (Page 6)
ISRAEL-FEDAYEEN: Israel strikes at fedayeen bases
Page 6
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CSOUTH VIETNAM: Communist main force and local
units appear to be preparing for a major effort
against the Saigon area in the coming weeks.
One of the enemy's first objectives apparently
is to sever the key highways of Military Regions (MR)
3 and 4 that lead to the capital. This kind of op-
eration, which can be done without great numbers of
massed troops, could seriously hamper government
defensive deployments. The outbreak of Communist
offensive action along Route 13 in southern Binh
Duong Province last week and the cutting of several
roads north and east of Saigon over the weekend
probably represent the opening stages of a more
comprehensive campaign.
The current disposition of enemy units in MRs
3 and 4 shows that they are expanding their opera-
tional areas to threaten not just strategic road-
ways and waterways, but also some major towns and
military installations. Shellings and sapper at-
tacks in and near the capital probably are also a
part of the enemy's planning. At least four large-
caliber rockets have been discovered aimed at the
city,
Despite increased
government security measures, some sapper and ter-
rorist units have probably infiltrated into Saigon
and its environs.
As the enemy's drive gets under way near Saigon,
.action probably will also erupt in other sectors of
the country. This could include large-scale attacks
on one or more fronts and heavy shellings of Da Nang
and other key targets.
16 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: The new government does not include
any opposition elements.
The list of new ministers that first minister-
designate Hang Thun Hak presented to President Lon
Nol yesterday for his pro forma approval consists
chiefly of technicians carried over from Son Ngoc
Thanh's previous cabinet plus a few new and minor
faces from the ranks of the pro-government Socio-
Republican Party. The more important appointments
include the shift of General Thappana Nginn to
Defense from the Interior Ministry. The latter
position will now be filled by former Military Re-
gion IV commander General Sar Hor. The able Long
Boret remains as foreign minister. Lon Nol's
younger brother, Colonel Lon Non, is also on the
list--marking the first time that he has held
cabinet. rank. The unpopular Lon Non will be a
"special minister" with responsibility for pacifi-
cation programs.
Hang Thun Hak's government is not likely to
be any more effective in dealing with the country's
myriad problems than were its predecessors. The
46-year-old Hak's own governmental experience has
been largely limited to his service as third deputy
prime minister in charge of community development
programs from May 1971 until this past March. His
decision to retain a majority of veteran ministers,
therefore, seems to be a prudent and necessary one.
Perhaps the most politically significant as-
pect of the new government is the absence of any
representatives of the country's two main opposi-
tion parties,. the Republicans and the Democrats.
Lon Nol had some hopes of inducing members from
those two groups to participate in a "government
of national union." To that end he recently en-
couraged the development of a political dialogue
between Socio-Republican leaders and Sirik Matak.,
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the chief of the Republican Party.
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CHILE: The rejection by truck owners of
settlement terms offered by the government frees
President Allende's hand to take even firmer meas-
ures to end their politically motivated strike.
Allende accepted an offer of the non-striking
bus owners union to mediate for the trucking com-
panies. An agreement was reached that would ter-
minate the strike if the government returned all
impounded vehicles and released arrested strikers.
The truckers' total rejection of the peace terms,
however, gives the gove nment a chance to take
more stringent action. government
military commander
of Santiago has ordered hat all transport and com-
merce must return to normal this morning. Under
the state-of-emergency restrictions this drastic
step is egal but was not expected by opposition
leaders. J A government transport monopoly has
been discussed as a long-term solution.
The effects of the strike have been widespread
but not severe. Police and army troops have given
protection to non-striking drivers operating im-
pounded vehicles. An army general has been named
coordinator of land transport, and soldiers are
protecting gas stations to ensure that government-
controlled trucks can operate. Food supplies appear
to be holding up, public transportation is operating,
and only petroleum products for private use are in
short supply. There has been no significant violence
in Santiago. The sympathy strike of small shopowners
is effective only in the downtown and better sections
of Santiago and some provincial towns. Large depart-
ment stores, food chains, and retail outlets in the
poor neighborhoods are open as usual--some under
pressure.
By choosing an issue with which their own em-
ployees and the public are not sympathetic, many of
Chile's small businessmen have exposed themselves
to retaliation. With employers' strikes being used
more frequently as a political weapon, the Allende
government has good reason to demonstrate forcefully
that such disruptions will not achieve their objec-
tives.
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EGYPT-USSR: The first round of serious recon-
ciliation talks between Moscow and Cairo begins to-
day with the visit of Egyptian Prime Minister Sidqi
to the Soviet Union. Some indication that the dia-
logue will not be entirely smooth was given by
Egypt's leading journalist, Muhammad Haykal, on
Friday when he warned against turning "the page on
this dispute without deep debate." Nevertheless,
the fact that talks are beginning indicates the
interest of both parties in working to resolve their
differences. Cairo's desire for a degree of nor-
malization was also indicated by Haykal when he
called for renewed friendship and cooperation be-
tween the two countries.
ISRAEL-FEDAYEEN: Israeli aircraft yesterday
bombed four fedayeen bases in Lebanon and one in
Syria in the first military action in a month. The
air strikes seem intended principally to remind the
fedaye:en and the Beirut and Damascus governments
that Tel Aviv will permit no laxity toward renewed
fedayeen activity. There have been no incidents of
any magnitude nor any Israeli casualties since 20
September. Tel Aviv is certainly aware, however, of
the growing opposition in fedayeen ranks to Fatah
leader Arafat's agreement with Beirut to limit guer-
rilla activity from Lebanese territory.
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