CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023200010001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 11, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
N2 042
11 November 1972
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No. 0271/72
11 November 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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LAOS: Vang Pao mounting another drive toward the
Plaine des Jarres. (Page 3)
NATO: Allies concerned about consultation procedures
on MBFR. (Page 4)
BURMA: Insurgents attack in three widespread areas.
(Page 7)
USSR-UN: Soviet non-use of force proposal getting
cold reception. (Page 8)
BELGIUM: Linguistic disputes could threaten govern-
ment. (Page 9)
GUINEA: Government moves to acquire part ownership
in large bauxite firm. (Page 11)
NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi-Haiphong rail line being re-
paired (Page :L3)
CHINA: Wheat from Canada (Page 13)
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? Government-held location
Communist-held location
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LAOS: General Vang Pao appears determined to
try again to advance toward the Plaine des Jarres.
Several understrength irregular battalions,
with a total strength of about 1,300, are being air-
lifted into Khang Kho to join the 500-800 irregulars
holding the government's only remaining high-ground
position in the hills about four miles from the
Plaine's southern tip. Only :Last week these troops
were driven from nearby positions; they will attempt
to secure this area in preparation for renewed of-
fensive operations toward the southern Plaine.
The North Vietnamese still have major elements
of three infantry regiments, plus armor and artil-
lery units, near the southern tip of the Plaine.
Unless these units have been badly hurt by the heavy
daily air strikes, they should be able to deal with
Vang Pao's troops. Nevertheless, the irregulars'
latest push will help divert the Communists from
concentrating their forces against the government's
outer defense lines in the hills southwest of the
Plaine. Reports from US pilots that the Communists
are repairing Route 54, their supply road into this
area, indicate that the North Vietnamese may be
planning to increase their pressure in this area.
In the central panhandle, government forces
that drove Communist troops from the village of
Keng Kok last week are now attempting to recapture
Dong Hene, a village that has been under Communist
control since early this year. Advance elements of
the nine-battalion irregular force met stiff re-
sistance when they attempted to enter the town on
9 November. The North Vietnamese 29th
Independent
Regiment, the only major Communist unit
area, has one battalion defending Dong
in
Hene
this
and the
rest of its elements are located alon
the
roads
to the east.
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NATO: A number of allies are concerned that
the US will not take their views fully into account
during talks with the East on mutual and balanced
force reductions.
The present issue centers on NATO procedures
for coordinating Western positions during explora-
tory talks on force reductions. Secretary-General
Luns last week proposed that the North Atlantic
Council "consult and decide on, all essential ques-
tions" for the talks. He also proposed that the
ad hoc group on the scene provide day-to-day coor-
dination of the Western conduct of the talks. The
US countered with revisions that met with strong
opposition from Luns and the representatives of
the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Turkey,
and West Germany. They feel that the US revisions
would too narrowly limit the role of both the North
Atlantic Council and the ad hoc group. The Turkish
representative stated that the US position threat-
ened to unravel the compromise to let Turkey and
the other flank allies send observers to the talks.
The Turks say they accepted the compromise on the
understanding that the North Atlantic Council would
coordinate Western positions.
The allies are sensitive to any suggestion
that Moscow and. Washington may decide matters re-
lating to European security--particularly SALT and
MBFR--without their participation. The US pro-
posals on MBFR consultations will increase their
concern. The smaller allies particularly depend
on NATO consultations, in addition to bilateral
talks, to try to exert some influence. The allies
were pleased with the US attempts to keep them
abreast of the first round of SALT, but they are
now becoming concerned that the US will not fully
consult them on the issue of forward based nuclear
systems in Europe in the upcoming SALT round.
The British and West Germans are already mov-
ing to increase their influence on US decisions
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regarding MBFR. Following Anglo-German talks this
week, a British, official suggested that Washington,
London, and Bonn should carefully coordinate their
MBFR positions prior to North Atlantic Council con-
sideration. This procedure, however, would not
satisfy most of the other allies, who would regard
it as further prejudicing the role of the North
Atlantic Council--which they see as their best pos-
sible forum to influence Western MBFR positions.
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ANGLADESH
UN ST/
Saw law
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BURMA: Sizable numbers of Communist-led in-
surgents have attacked government-held garrisons
in three widespread areas of the north.
In the northern Shan State, a traditional in-
surgent stronghold, the Communists launched a heavy
rocket and mortar bombardment against an army camp
at Muse and made a ground assault against another
camp near the town of Mong Si on 6 and 7 November.
Poor weather has precluded air support to these be-
leaguered garrisons, but at last report they were
still in government hands. The large expenditure
of munitions in, the fighting suggests that the Com-
munists now have enough supplies to launch their
long-touted military campaign in this northern area.
From Rangoon's viewpoint, a recent outbreak of
fighting in the Kachin State is more disturbing.
Local officials report that Communist elements over-
ran a lightly defended position in the town of Sawlaw
on 3 November. Although the Communists have skir-
mished with local Kachin forces near the border over
the past year, this is the first known significant
attack against regular government forces in the
Kachin State.
While Communist aggressiveness this year in no
way presents an immediate threat to major government
installations, it has given Rangoon a refugee prob-
lem of serious proportions. In recent weeks, Bur-
mese officials have approached some 20 foreign coun-
tries to request emergency supplies to help support
an estimated 30,000 people trying to flee from the
insurgents. Rangoon's decision to appeal for in-
ternational assistance for the refugee problem is
a sharp departure from its policy of isolation, and
may in part reflect the government's increasing
nervousness about the rowin Communist threat.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR-UN: The Soviet non-use of force proposal
continues to get a cold reception in the UN General
Assembly.
The proposal, which includes prohibitions on
the use of force and nuclear weapons, received a
considerable buildup by Soviet diplomats and media.
Nevertheless, most delegations still consider it a
propaganda gambit in the Sino-Soviet dispute and
have tried to stay out of the line of fire. In fact,
delegates have been so reluctant to address it that
three plenary sessions on this issue have had to be
canceled for lack of speakers.
Only Soviet client states have come out flatly
in favor of the USSR's proposal. Those third world
states that have spoken have found some textual
point to complain about. The Chinese have told the
US that they will not participate in the debate,
citing the low level of interest and hardly conceal-
ing their pleasure at this turn of events for a So-
viet initiative.
There remains, however, a. fair chance that the
draft resolution will obtain a, majority in the Gen-
eral Assembly, with the bulk of the membership ab-
staining, although the text may not call for Secu-
rity Council review. The apparent Soviet intent is
to induce the other great powers to take a position
in the Security Council.
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BELGIUM: Traditional linguistic disputes will
come to a -head at today's cabinet meeting. This
could result in a major reshuffle or even the fall
of the government.
Prime Minister Eyskens, a master tactician
known for his success in arranging compromises in
dire situations, has been unable since parliament
reconvened on 10 October to get French- and Dutch-
speaking coalition leaders to agree on crucial leg-
islation. The perennial debate on government fund-
ing of Catholic schools has caused much of the dis-
agreement between the Social Christians and their
more secular-minded coalition partners, the Social-
ists.
Tempers have risen higher over matters concern-
ing the linguistic boundaries of the country.
French-speaking leaders within, both coalition par-
ties want the government to honor its commitment to
assume direct administrative control of six dis-
puted communes along the linguistic frontier. More-
over, the same leaders argue that if Eyskens' pro-
gram of economic regionalization of the country is
to be implemented, then the economic region for
Brussels must be defined territorially in broader
terms than the present linguistic laws state. Flem-
ish politicians, who are extremely sensitive on
such issues, are resisting any expansion of this
largely French-speaking enclave. In today's cabi-
net meeting, Eyskens may again propose a "package"
compromise on all three issues.
Although Eyskens' personal fate is uncertain--
he often threatens to resign to elicit a compro-
mise--there is some hope that a major crisis can
be avoided. The recently revised constitution re-
quires Belgian governments to have special, large
majorities for any legislation affecting cultural
and linguistic affairs. Some kind of compromise
is therefore mandatory if there is to be a govern-
ment able to deal with important pending domestic
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and foreign legislation. Furthermore, all politi-
cians are aware that there is no viable alternative
to the present coalition. The opposition parties
are weak and even more divided. New elections would
not resolve the situation because they would in all
likelihood return the same parties to power.
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GUINEA: The government is moving to acquire
part ownership of FRIA, a privately owned consortium
that has been Guinea's major bauxite producer and
foreign exchange earner since 1960.
Negotiations are to begin within a few weeks,
and the government probably will demand at least
49-percent ownership. This is the stake it holds
in the Western-financed Boke bauxite project, an
even larger development than FRIA, which should be-
gin production in late 1973 or early 1974. American
capital predominates in both the Boke and FRIA ven-
tures, although a French company that discovered
the FRIA deposits is in charge of its daily manage-
ment.
FRIA's relations with the government were quite
good until late 1970 when a Portuguese-led attack on
Conakry produced heightened government concern with
security and the activities of foreigners in Guinea.
Since then the enterprise has experienced labor prob-
lems, government interference in daily operations,.
and harassment of foreign employees. One foreign
official, a French woman, has been held prisoner by
Guinea since her arrest in 1971 for alleged subver-
sive activities. Ironically, a striking aspect of
the FRIA operation is its highly successful "Guin-
eanization" program. The government insisted from
the first that "Guineanization" eventually reach 100
percent and this goal was incorporated into company
plans. Latest figures show that only 148 of 1,400
employees are foreigners.
The government's bargaining position is
strengthened by the fact that Boke will begin pro-
duction relatively soon. Previously, the threat of
interrupting FRIA production was economically too
devastating for the government to risk. Although
bargaining will be tough, a near equal partnership
with government seems inevitable, given the prece-
dent set by the Boke agreement and President Sekou
Toure's ideological commitment to government par-
ticipation.
(continued)
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Guinea has 20 percent of the world's known
bauxite deposits, but ranks only seventh in produc-
tion. Development of its richest ore has only just
begun. Communist countries also are involved in
bauxite projects in Guinea, the largest being a
$92-million enterprise at Kindia lust east of the
capital.
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NORTH VIETNAM: The Hanoi-Haiphong rail line
is undergoing rapid repair and most of it is now
serviceable. Aerial photography shows
the North Vietnamese have completed repairs to sev-
eral river crossings near Hai Duong and Haiphong.
Two multispan bypass bridges east of Hai Duong have
been made serviceable and rail barges have been used
to close a gap in a bypass bridge near Haiphong.
One of the bridges near Hai Duong was missing seven
spans on but within a week all seven
had been installed. Some rail cars that had been
trapped in Haiphong have been moved, and a locomo-
tive and 27 cars were spotted at the Hai Duong siding.
This suggests that portions of the line are already
being used.
CHINA: Peking has purchased approximately
1.7 million tons of wheat from Canada, worth $150
million,for delivery during a six-month period be-
ginning in April 1973. This deal, together with
earlier purchases from Canada and Australia, brings
total contracts for 1973 deliveries to about 3.5
million tons. Tight world supplies forced China to
pay $2.39 per bushel. Earlier purchases from Canada
were made at about $1.82. Because of unsettled con-
ditions in the world grain market, China has been
buying larger than normal quantities of grain for
this time of year for delivery next year.
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Hanoi-Haiphong Rail Line Reopened
vlet Tri 11-~Vien Yen
0 5 10 15 Miles
Rcd Rtver
al Des RaPides
Bypass bridges
Phu Ly
Thai Binh
HAIPH6N
Bypass
bridge
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Secret
Secret
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