CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023200070001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 18, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
N2 042
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18 November 1972
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No. 0277/72
18 November 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ARGENTINA: Prospects for Peron's talks with Presi-
dent Lanusse. (Page 1)
USSR: Newly modified command ship deploys. (Page 2)
USSR-PERU: Moscow extends credits for major irri-
gation project. (Page 3)
INDIA: Substantial grain imports planned. (Page 4)
ECUADOR: Ineptitude of government creates serious
problems. (Page 5)
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Border talks remain stalled.
(Page 6)
CHILE: Rampant inflation (Page 7)
GOLD: Price falls sharply (Page 7)
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ARGENTINA: C Juan Peron's arrival yesterday
provoked no serious outbreaks of violenc , but he
is protesting his near total isolation.5
A driving rain helped to dampen the enthusiasm
of those loyal Peronists and potential trouble-
makers who, defying Peron's personal plea for calm,
sought to challenge the security forces who had
sealed off the airport. Heavily armed troops turned
back thousands at the airport access road and well-
coordinated operations of riot police prevented sev-
eral small incidents from mushrooming.
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Politically, both Peron and President Lanusse
are continuing to play their cards very close.
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the two do not seem far apar
ut the years o e an
and the massive egos of both Peron and Lanusse
[must still be overcome and differences over security
d
arrangements could further complicate work towar
a final agreement.
18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
The bargaining positions of
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USSR: The Soviet Navy has deployed the second
of its two newly modified naval command ships.
The Admiral Senyavin, a Sverdlov-class light
cruiser
I laccompanied by a guided missile
destroyer. is is the first time the Senyavin has
been outside home waters since it finished its
lengthy modification at Vladivostok last year.
The Senyavin's modification, which began in
1967, consists primarily of an upgraded capability
for communications and defense against aircraft.
the Senyavin was sighted
with an array of several new communications an-
tennas. Its new short-range defenses against air-
craft consist of the retractable SA-N-4 surface-to-
air missile launcher and rapid-fire 30-mm. twin gun
mounts. The ship also has a new helicopter deck
and hangar.
Another Sverdlov-class cruiser, the Zhdanov
IThe
Senyavin's cruise may include operations with the
Soviet Indian Ocean force, which has been without
a cruiser since March and without a destroyer since
late October.
The Soviet Navy apparently is attempting to
get extra mileage from these two light cruisers,
built in the early 1950s, by using them as flag-
ships for distant operations.
18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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USSR-PERU: Moscow has extended $200 million in
credits for a major irrigation project in northern
Peru.
The $450-million project will consist of a
trans-Andean tunnel, a hydroelectric complex, and an
irrigation network covering nearly 500,000 acres of
land. Negotiations to secure Soviet financing have
continued intermittently since 1969, and the USSR
conducted two feasibility studies before deciding to
become involved in it. The only Soviet assistance
to Peru to date has been for the development of a
large fishing complex.
The long-desired credit comes at a period of
increasing Peruvian cordiality toward the USSR after
a lull partly due to the Velasco government's skep-
ticism of Soviet aims. Peruvian economic and mili-
tary delegations visited Moscow recently and on 14
November several top Soviet military officials were
decorated by Ambassador de la Puente in a warm ges-
ture of gratitude to Moscow for help during the 1970
earthquake and for training some Peruvian military
personnel. F7 I
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INDIA: The government is planning to import
substantial quantities of grain soon.
Indian Government and industrial officials
have privately told members of the US country team
that India may make foreign purchases of grain and
other commodities within the next month or two.
The food secretary is making an unpublicized trip
to a number of countries, including the US, to sur-
vey the availability and prices of foodgrains. New
Delhi probably will import between one and two mil-
lion tons of grain, 200,000 tons of vegetable oil,
and 50,000 tons of pulses.
The switch from earlier official claims of
self-sufficiency in food production follows inade-
quate rainfall this year, resulting in poor crops
and a rapid decline in reserve stocks. Government
plans to expand the winter wheat and other crops
are being hampered by continued drought in large
areas of north India, an inadequate supply of fer-
tilizer, and a shortage of electrical energy for
operating irrigation pumps.
Indian officials apparently hope to keep their
cash expenditures for imports to less than $50 mil-
lion; they probably will seek credit for costs
above that amount. Although the Indian Government
is unlikely to ask for concessionary PL-480 terms
to purchase food, it may request a short-term com-
mercial credit.
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ECUADOR: The ineptitude and lack of leader-
ship of the military government is creating serious
problems, including dissension within the armed
forces.
During most of its nine months in power, the
Rodriguez government has escaped serious criticism,
primarily because of the ambiguity of its policies.
Recently, however, labor has reacted strongly to a
decree limiting strikes, students have responded
violently to repressive police tactics on campuses,
and business circles have been alarmed by the gov-
ernment's uncertain credit policies. Rodriguez'
most vexing problem was caused by his dismissal
last month of a military court that had failed to
convict a former cabinet minister of alleged mis-
conduct during the previous administration. Sev-
eral Supreme Court justices have resigned in pro-
test, and civilian politicians, who have been rel-
atively inactive since February, have hastened to
attack what they see as an assault on the judicial
system.
Rodriguez has not been unduly concerned with
civilian grumbling, but the intensity of the re-
cent criticism has taken him by surprise. Tradi-
tional rivalries among the armed services are also
resurfacing, and some high--ranking officers have
become openly critical of Rodriguez' lack of lead-
ership. The resulting erosion of military unity
adds to the government's inability to deal effec-
tively with its problems. This downward spiral
will prove difficult to arrest and could lead first
to personnel shifts within the administration and
ultimately to the discrediting of the entire mili-
tary government. F7 I
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: New Delhi may propose a meet-
ing of civilian officials to deal with stalled mil-
itary talks on delineation of the Jammu and Kashmir
border.
Indian Foreign Minister Swaran Singh told par-
liament this week that New Delhi might consider a
meeting of Indian and Pakistani officials, possibly
even a summit conference, in an effort to resolve
the impasse, which has prevented troop withdrawals
along the international border south of Kashmir.
The Indians do not, however, want to give the im-
pression that they are eager to meet, and Prime
Minister Gandhi publicly maintains that delineation
remains a "technical matter" which should be left
to army commanders. Islamabad also appears unen-
thusiastic about an upgraded approach to the prob-
lem, but so far has not ruled it out. Last week's
meeting between senior Indian and Pakistani mili-
tary commanders ended inconclusively with no date
set for another session.
Meanwhile, each side contends that the other
is responsible for the delay. Pakistani officials
allege that the Indians are delaying delineation
both to force Pakistan into recognizing Bangladesh
and to erode Islamabad's contention that the status
of Jammu and Kashmir is not permanently settled.
Conversely, Indian officials accuse President Bhutto
of footdragging, although at least one of them ad-
mits that there may be an honest misunderstanding
over unclear wording in the hastily composed Sim a
Agreement of last July. F77 I
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CHILE: Rapid inflation continues unabated.
Prices have risen 130 percent since the beginning
of the year, and October's price rise alone wiped
out 30 percent of the 100-percent salary increase
granted at the beginning of the month. Demand for
consumer goods is so strong that there are wide-
spread shortages and blackmarket activities are pro-
liferating. Workers' purchasing power appears
likely to erode further over the next few months,
putting more pressure on President Allende to grant
another round of wage increases before the congres-
sional elections in March .1973. F_ I 25X1
GOLD: The price of gold has fallen sharply
in international markets. The price in London,
which yesterday fell by over $1, slipped to $60
per ounce for the first time in five months. The
price has fallen more than $10 since the record
highs reached in early August. Profit taking has
been instrumental in the decline, but other factors
also have been important. Gold customarily weakens
when the dollar strengthens, as it recently has on
international money markets. Gold also often moves
in an opposite direction from prices on the New
York stock exchange. Moreover, traders anticipate
that South Africa and the USSR will be marketing
large quantities of gold in the West in the next
year.
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Secret
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