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December 15, 2016
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December 3, 2003
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November 18, 1972
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Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO232000 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin State Department review completed Secret N2 042 25X1 18 November 1972 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23200070001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/15~fT00975A023200070001-6 No. 0277/72 18 November 1972 Central Intelligence Bulletin CONTENTS ARGENTINA: Prospects for Peron's talks with Presi- dent Lanusse. (Page 1) USSR: Newly modified command ship deploys. (Page 2) USSR-PERU: Moscow extends credits for major irri- gation project. (Page 3) INDIA: Substantial grain imports planned. (Page 4) ECUADOR: Ineptitude of government creates serious problems. (Page 5) INDIA-PAKISTAN: Border talks remain stalled. (Page 6) CHILE: Rampant inflation (Page 7) GOLD: Price falls sharply (Page 7) Approved For Release 2004/01/15Sf[ , 8T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/1 S1~79T00975A023200070001-6 ARGENTINA: C Juan Peron's arrival yesterday provoked no serious outbreaks of violenc , but he is protesting his near total isolation.5 A driving rain helped to dampen the enthusiasm of those loyal Peronists and potential trouble- makers who, defying Peron's personal plea for calm, sought to challenge the security forces who had sealed off the airport. Heavily armed troops turned back thousands at the airport access road and well- coordinated operations of riot police prevented sev- eral small incidents from mushrooming. 25X1 Politically, both Peron and President Lanusse are continuing to play their cards very close. 25X1 the two do not seem far apar ut the years o e an and the massive egos of both Peron and Lanusse [must still be overcome and differences over security d arrangements could further complicate work towar a final agreement. 18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin The bargaining positions of 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15518TA=}2D1 9T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/11SElaN "9T00975A023200070001-6 USSR: The Soviet Navy has deployed the second of its two newly modified naval command ships. The Admiral Senyavin, a Sverdlov-class light cruiser I laccompanied by a guided missile destroyer. is is the first time the Senyavin has been outside home waters since it finished its lengthy modification at Vladivostok last year. The Senyavin's modification, which began in 1967, consists primarily of an upgraded capability for communications and defense against aircraft. the Senyavin was sighted with an array of several new communications an- tennas. Its new short-range defenses against air- craft consist of the retractable SA-N-4 surface-to- air missile launcher and rapid-fire 30-mm. twin gun mounts. The ship also has a new helicopter deck and hangar. Another Sverdlov-class cruiser, the Zhdanov IThe Senyavin's cruise may include operations with the Soviet Indian Ocean force, which has been without a cruiser since March and without a destroyer since late October. The Soviet Navy apparently is attempting to get extra mileage from these two light cruisers, built in the early 1950s, by using them as flag- ships for distant operations. 18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15S1R&W9T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/18EO 79T00975A023200070001-6 USSR-PERU: Moscow has extended $200 million in credits for a major irrigation project in northern Peru. The $450-million project will consist of a trans-Andean tunnel, a hydroelectric complex, and an irrigation network covering nearly 500,000 acres of land. Negotiations to secure Soviet financing have continued intermittently since 1969, and the USSR conducted two feasibility studies before deciding to become involved in it. The only Soviet assistance to Peru to date has been for the development of a large fishing complex. The long-desired credit comes at a period of increasing Peruvian cordiality toward the USSR after a lull partly due to the Velasco government's skep- ticism of Soviet aims. Peruvian economic and mili- tary delegations visited Moscow recently and on 14 November several top Soviet military officials were decorated by Ambassador de la Puente in a warm ges- ture of gratitude to Moscow for help during the 1970 earthquake and for training some Peruvian military personnel. F7 I 18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/01/155MP79T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01hgCC'IDP79T00975A023200070001-6 INDIA: The government is planning to import substantial quantities of grain soon. Indian Government and industrial officials have privately told members of the US country team that India may make foreign purchases of grain and other commodities within the next month or two. The food secretary is making an unpublicized trip to a number of countries, including the US, to sur- vey the availability and prices of foodgrains. New Delhi probably will import between one and two mil- lion tons of grain, 200,000 tons of vegetable oil, and 50,000 tons of pulses. The switch from earlier official claims of self-sufficiency in food production follows inade- quate rainfall this year, resulting in poor crops and a rapid decline in reserve stocks. Government plans to expand the winter wheat and other crops are being hampered by continued drought in large areas of north India, an inadequate supply of fer- tilizer, and a shortage of electrical energy for operating irrigation pumps. Indian officials apparently hope to keep their cash expenditures for imports to less than $50 mil- lion; they probably will seek credit for costs above that amount. Although the Indian Government is unlikely to ask for concessionary PL-480 terms to purchase food, it may request a short-term com- mercial credit. 25X1 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/01/1~ECIA-RD 779T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 ; 9T00975A023200070001-6 sf6fipf ECUADOR: The ineptitude and lack of leader- ship of the military government is creating serious problems, including dissension within the armed forces. During most of its nine months in power, the Rodriguez government has escaped serious criticism, primarily because of the ambiguity of its policies. Recently, however, labor has reacted strongly to a decree limiting strikes, students have responded violently to repressive police tactics on campuses, and business circles have been alarmed by the gov- ernment's uncertain credit policies. Rodriguez' most vexing problem was caused by his dismissal last month of a military court that had failed to convict a former cabinet minister of alleged mis- conduct during the previous administration. Sev- eral Supreme Court justices have resigned in pro- test, and civilian politicians, who have been rel- atively inactive since February, have hastened to attack what they see as an assault on the judicial system. Rodriguez has not been unduly concerned with civilian grumbling, but the intensity of the re- cent criticism has taken him by surprise. Tradi- tional rivalries among the armed services are also resurfacing, and some high--ranking officers have become openly critical of Rodriguez' lack of lead- ership. The resulting erosion of military unity adds to the government's inability to deal effec- tively with its problems. This downward spiral will prove difficult to arrest and could lead first to personnel shifts within the administration and ultimately to the discrediting of the entire mili- tary government. F7 I 18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/1 55 fLA fRT9T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 SPC-9T00975A023200070001-6 INDIA-PAKISTAN: New Delhi may propose a meet- ing of civilian officials to deal with stalled mil- itary talks on delineation of the Jammu and Kashmir border. Indian Foreign Minister Swaran Singh told par- liament this week that New Delhi might consider a meeting of Indian and Pakistani officials, possibly even a summit conference, in an effort to resolve the impasse, which has prevented troop withdrawals along the international border south of Kashmir. The Indians do not, however, want to give the im- pression that they are eager to meet, and Prime Minister Gandhi publicly maintains that delineation remains a "technical matter" which should be left to army commanders. Islamabad also appears unen- thusiastic about an upgraded approach to the prob- lem, but so far has not ruled it out. Last week's meeting between senior Indian and Pakistani mili- tary commanders ended inconclusively with no date set for another session. Meanwhile, each side contends that the other is responsible for the delay. Pakistani officials allege that the Indians are delaying delineation both to force Pakistan into recognizing Bangladesh and to erode Islamabad's contention that the status of Jammu and Kashmir is not permanently settled. Conversely, Indian officials accuse President Bhutto of footdragging, although at least one of them ad- mits that there may be an honest misunderstanding over unclear wording in the hastily composed Sim a Agreement of last July. F77 I 18 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/156MPT79T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 f k T00975A023200070001-6 CHILE: Rapid inflation continues unabated. Prices have risen 130 percent since the beginning of the year, and October's price rise alone wiped out 30 percent of the 100-percent salary increase granted at the beginning of the month. Demand for consumer goods is so strong that there are wide- spread shortages and blackmarket activities are pro- liferating. Workers' purchasing power appears likely to erode further over the next few months, putting more pressure on President Allende to grant another round of wage increases before the congres- sional elections in March .1973. F_ I 25X1 GOLD: The price of gold has fallen sharply in international markets. The price in London, which yesterday fell by over $1, slipped to $60 per ounce for the first time in five months. The price has fallen more than $10 since the record highs reached in early August. Profit taking has been instrumental in the decline, but other factors also have been important. Gold customarily weakens when the dollar strengthens, as it recently has on international money markets. Gold also often moves in an opposite direction from prices on the New York stock exchange. Moreover, traders anticipate that South Africa and the USSR will be marketing large quantities of gold in the West in the next year. Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/01/1 58 ffA f 9T00975A023200070001-6 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23200070001-6 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23200070001-6