CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023400100001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 22, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 42
22 December 1972
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No. 0306/72
22 December 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR: Brezhnev criticizes US on Vietnam, but re-
states interest in detente. (Page 1)
ARGENTINA: Peron front in danger of falling apart.
(Page 3)
PHILIPPINES: Opposition shows some life as plebi-
scite approaches. (Page 5)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: New Commission has little
luster. (Page 6)
BURMA: Drought threatens rice harvest. (Page 8)
ALGERIA: Head of FLN relieved of duties. (Page 9)
WEST GERMANY: Bonn ponders joint production of
combat aircraft. (Page 11)
LAOS - NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi repairing airfield at
Samneua (Page 13
BELGIUM: Discount rate raised (Page 13)
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USSR: Party chief Brezhnev's speech yesterday
contained harsh criticism of the US for recent de-
velopments in Vietnam, but also strongly restated
Soviet interest in detente and hinted at new pros-
pects for progress in several specific areas.
Brezhnev sharply attacked the increased US
bombing in North Vietnam and criticized the "un-
seemly behavior" of the US that was "artificially
delaying" a peace settlement. He routinely pledged
"all-round support" for his North Vietnamese allies,
but also said Moscow would render "active assistance"
to gain a just end to the war. He refrained from
endorsing any specific proposals, suggesting that
Moscow is more concerned with getting an agreement
than its exact terms.
Near the end of his comments on the US, Brezh-
nev explicitly linked developments in Indochina
with prospects for Soviet-US relations, the first
time a Soviet leader has made this connection since
Premier Kosygin's election speech in June 1971.
Given the audience before which Brezhnev spoke, he
could hardly do less, however, and the tone of his
remarks on the US--Vietnam aside--was highly favor-
able. He placed strong emphasis on the necessity
for the great powers to live in peaceful coexistence
and included hopeful references to the prospects for
SALT and for closer Soviet-US economic cooperation.
On arms limitation, Brezhnev said that "it would not
be a bad idea" to begin thinking about a permanent
cutback of strategic weapons and "the establishment
of certain limits on their qualitative improvement."
While the US was criticized solely for its ac-
tions in Vietnam, Brezhnev presented a long list
of difficulties the Chinese have caused. He accused
them of "absurd claims" to Soviet territory,
"malicious slandering" of the USSR, and "open sabo-
tage" of Soviet efforts at disarmament and easing
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international tension. He left the door open for
improved relations, but made it clear that the Chi-
nese would have to take the next steps.
On European matters, Brezhnev reiterated Soviet
support for a Conference on security and Cooperation
in Europe. He also acknowledged Western interest in
a freer exchange of ideas and people and put the USSR
on record as favoring this, on condition that it be
done with "mutual respect-and not from positions
of cold war." Brezhnev was less forthcoming on
force reductions in Europe, on which he merely said
the Soviet Union stands for "the serious reparation
and efficient handling of these talks."
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ARGENTINA: The electoral front put together
by Juan Peron is in danger of falling apart as a
result of disputes over the naming of candidates
for the election to be held on 11 March.
Labor, the main source of Peronist strength,
is dissatisfied with the sycophant Hector Campora,
and its representatives walked out of the conven-
tion when he was nominated. Political battles among
the Peronists over Campora's nomination to replace
Peron at the head of the ticket have occasionally
erupted into violence. Pitched battles occurred
over the selection of provincial gubernatorial and
congressional slates. One top Peronist leader was
attacked while trying to pass on Peron's instruc-
tions to the Buenos Aires provincial caucus and had
to take refuge in a police station. Possibly as a
result of this infighting, Peron seemed to back-
track on his support for Campora when he claimed
yesterday that the party, not he had nominated him.
Adding to the problem facing the Peronists is
the threat of the largest non-Peronist party to quit
the electoral front. The followers of former pres-
ident Frondizi, who had expected to name the running
mate, were upset when the nod went to Popular Con-
servative leader Vicente Solano Lima. The prospect
of being allocated only one provincial governor has
caused them to talk of pulling out.
There has been no official government reaction
to the nomination of Campora, although he is anathema
to the military and President Lanusse.
(continued)
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One indication that the government may capital-
ize on this discontent is the rumor that Jorge Pal-
adino will be named to run with the government's
candidate, air force General Ezequiel Martinez.
Paladin preceded Campora as Peron's personal rep-
resentative and still has a following among moder-
ate Peronists, although he was drummed out of the
party for being too ambitious.
The government now reportedly has postponed
the official inscription deadline from 21 December
to 2 January. This will give Peronists time to
select another candidate if the decide to act.
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PHILIPPINES: As the constitutional plebiscite
approaches, the political opposition is showing
flickers of life.
Liberal Party leader Gerardo Roxas and others
have filed petitions with the Supreme Court seeking
an injunction against holding the plebiscite as
scheduled on 15 January. Aside from constitutional
objections, the petitioners argue that time and mar-
tial law conditions will not allow a full and free
discussion of issues. The Supreme Court is gener-
ally considered to belong to Marcos, but the Pres-
ident wants to head off any such overt questioning
of his decisions. He has already lifted some of
the provisions of martial law, such as press censor-
ship, to permit debate on the draft constitution_
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Marcos will enter a plebiscite in an extremely
strong position by virtue of his total control of
the government machinery. To gain an overwhelming
popular endorsement, however, he will have to over-
come widespread voter apathy. Most Filipinos be-
lieve that Marcos plans to continue his one-man rule
whether or not the constitution passes. Administra-
tion officials estimated in mid-December that only
about 40 percent of the voters would bother to go
to the polls. This is well below the 80-percent
goal Marcos has set for himself.
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The new, 13-man Commis-
sion that will take office on 6 January seems un-
likely to give the EC substantially stronger direc-
tion than the outgoing Commission provided.
About half of the commissioners are holdovers.
A few of those renominated by present member states,
such as Jean-Francois Deniau of France, are highly
qualified, but the performance of the others has
not been outstanding. France, which will hold the
presidency for the first time, has nominated Fran-
cois-Xavier Ortoli, a former cabinet minister who
is close to Pompidou. Ortoli has the reputation
of a pragmatic administrator rather than a politi-
cal leader.
On balance, the new member states--plus the
Netherlands and Belgium--appear to have selected
the stronger candidates. Britain will send two
appointees of high political standing: Sir Chris-
topher Soames, former ambassador to Paris, and
George Thompson, a pro-EC former labor minister.
Ireland's Patrick Hillery will resign as foreign
minister for the Brussels position, and Denmark's
Finn-Olay Gunderlach will go to the Commission with
five years' experience as his country's ambassador
to the EC.
The scramble over portfolios now will inten-
sify. Although theoretically the commissioners
are supposed to decide this among themselves, the
member states have been maneuvering to put their
candidates in charge of the directorates in which
their national interests are the largest. The
main prizes are the foreign affairs portfolio and
the responsibility for economic and financial
affairs. The foreign affairs post is being hotly
contested by Soames and Ralf Dahrendorf, the Ger-
man incumbent. A Belgian socialist, Henri Simonet,
is said to be in line for the economic job, but
Bonn also wants it for Wilhelm Haferkamp. Italy,
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Denmark, and the Netherlands all want the agricul-
tural post. One effect of this bargaining could
be to weaken the collegial concept of the Commis-
sion and to encourage the commissioners to repre-
sent national rather than broad community inter-
ests.
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BURMA: Drought and other problems will reduce
the rice harvest to the point where exports will
probably be less than half the planned level.
Rainfall was below normal in most areas of the
country this year and as much as 50 percent below
normal in the major rice-growing areas. Output
from the current harvest has also been reduced be-
cause of the limited use of fertilizer and the gov-
ernment's earlier encouragement to farmers to shift
to jute-growing.
The total rice crop may decline ten percent
from last year's level and as much as 25 percent in
the areas that generally produce the largest sur-
pluses. Despite an 18-percent increase in govern-
ment prices to farmers, competing prices in the open
market remain higher, and government procurements
probably will be smaller than last year. The volume
of government rice available for export from the cur-
rent crop probably will not exceed 400,000 tons, com-
pared with 600,000 tons last yearand 900,000 tons
planned.
The world rice shortage has boosted world prices
so that Rangoon's export revenues probably will not
decline. But Burma's traditional customers, such as
India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia, will find it diffi-
cult to locate other suppliers.
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ALGERIA: Ahmed Kaid has been relieved of his
job as chief of the National Liberation Front (FLN),
probably because of the long-standing hostility
between him and Revolutionary Council President
Boumediene.
Kaid, whose resignation was publicly attributed
to poor health, is a long-time close associate of
Boumediene and a member of the Revolutionary Coun-
cil's inner clique. Five years ago he was assigned
the mission of restructuring and revitalizing the
FLN. He succeeded in the former task, but not the
latter. Boumediene indicated his unhappiness with
Kaid's performance in a speech on 1 November, when
he called for a radical transformation of the FLN
to make it an efficient "revolutionary engine."
Boumediene may have been particularly unhappy with
Kaid's inability, or perhaps his deliberate reluc-
tance,. to use the FLN to promote the agricultural
reform program.
Kaid's successor, as yet unnamed, will have
the difficult mission of making the party more
dynamic, but not to the point where Boumediene
might come to view the organization as a threat
to his own power. It is likely that the FLN will
continue to serve merely as a vehicle to promote
and publicize Boumediene's programs.
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Artist's Concept of the Multirole Combat Aircraft (MRCA)
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WEST GERMANY: The West German Government is
expected to decide in the next few weeks whether
to participate in production of the multirole com-
bat aircraft (MRCA) being developed jointly with
the UK and Italy.
Bonn was to have made this decision by 1 No-
vember, but postponed it until after the mid-Novem-
ber elections for political reasons. A German de-
cision not to participate would cause serious prob-
lems in the British aircraft industry, which is
building the engines. The first of nine prototype
aircraft to be built is being assembled, and its
first flight is scheduled for late 1973. If the
testing goes according to schedule, the aircraft
could be operational by 1977.
The project has been troubled since its in-
ception in 1968 by mounting costs and difficulties
in defining the role of the aircraft. The deliv-
ered cost per aircraft has risen from an initial
estimate of $3 million to a current West German
estimate of $12 million. The British want the
aircraft to have primarily an interceptor role,
but the Germans put greater priority on the close
support of ground troops.
Because of these problems, Bonn has already
reduced its original order of 600 aircraft to 322.
The British order remains at about 400 and Italy's
at 100. The program has survived this long pri-
marily because of strong British pressure and a
German desire to develo an advanced aircraft
within Western Europe.
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Samneua Airfield Under Repair
Samneua
tovam
.Long.
Plaroe
des ;
Darns
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NOTES
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LAOS - NORTH VIETNAM: The old airfield at Sam-
neua in extreme northeastern Laos near the North
Vietnamese border is being repaired. Photography
shows that the work is nearly complete on 3,000 of
the runway's 3,400 feet. The runway could be fin-
ished by the end of the month. Samneua is an im-
portant Communist administrative center that would
be well served by VIP air service, especially now
that negotiations are under way in Vientiane.
BELGIUM: In line with the recent EC resolution
on a concerted anti-inflation drive, the Belgian
Central Bank has raised its discount rate to five
percent and its associated rate on advances against
securities to six percent. These are the second in-
creases since November. Inflation in Belgium is now
increasing at an annual rate of seven percent, con-
siderably higher than Belgian officials had forecast.
The Belgian action will put pressure on the Nether-
lands to increase its bank rate from the present four
percent.
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES
The United States Intelligence Board on 21 De-
cember 1972 approved the following national intelli-
gence estimates:
NIE 36.2-72 "Iraq's Role in Middle East-
NIE 32.1-72 "Bangladesh"
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Secret
Secret
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