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December 14, 2016
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August 11, 2003
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February 27, 1973
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Approved For Fzelease 2003/08/27: CIA-RDP79T009723 t DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret 41 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02390064700bjb1ruax7y 1973 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900040001-2 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900040001-2 Approved ForQilease 20NV EqA-RDP79T00975AM023900040001-2 Centql Intelligence Bullet CONTENTS LAOS: Fighting con inues to decline. (Page 1) CHILE: Government fo d distribute scheme in trouble as election ne rs. (Page CHINA: Renewed effort t orga ze youth. (Page 3) ICELAND: Inflation could /gger fall of govern- ment coalition. (Page 4) MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Demon tratons over French base aggravate tensions./ (Pag 5) MAURITANIA-FRANCE: llations rec fined as Nouak- chott withdraws from franc zone. \(Page 7) URUGUAY: Leftist 4oalition divided \ver military role. (Page 9) EUROPEAN SECURITY CONFERENCE: Moscow ma_.have scaled own expectations Page 10) Approved For Release 2003,EC7R!ROPRDP79T00975AO23900040001-2 ILLEGIB Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900040001-2 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900040001-2 Approved For lease 2003/0$/2 c ?P79T0097SM23900040001-2 FPt-E /LAOS: The level of fighting continues to de- cline amid signs that some North Vietnamese units believe they will be returning home soon. In the south, only minor clashes near Khong Sedone and Thateng and isolated shellings west of Paksong have marred the cease-fire during the past two days. Communist troops in the central panhandle on 25 February attacked a government unit along Route 13 north of Thakhek for the second time in three days and again forced the irregulars to fall back. Near Muong Phalane, however, North Vietnamese troops told villagers in the area that some units would be leaving as soon as Pathet Lao replacements arrived. In the area of the Plaine des Jarres, Com- munist gunners continued to shell government posi- tions in the hills near Xieng Khouangville on 25 February. F77 I Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/27- R79T00975A023900040001-2 oj_ft Approved For elease 2003/0g/fUj pDP79T00975A~23900040001-2 CHILE: The government's politically motivated pla o move large stocks of food to low-income con- sumers just before next Sunday's elections is in serious difficulties. The politicians who now control food distribu- tion are resisting all efforts by Air Force General Bachelet to organize an effective national system. Despite the fact that Bachelet was appointed by President Allende to do just that and that he has Communist support for his plans, the Socialists have been able to prevent dismissal of even the most cor- rupt and incompetent of the present administrators. Pushing their increasingly hard line, they are blaming the military for the failure of the supply scheme. They are also collaborating with other ex- tremists in inciting slum clashes over the alloca- tion of food, possibly in an effort to disrupt the election by violence. Even if some temporary solution can be devised, the delay has stirred up Communist and Socialist animosities, never far below the surface, and prob- ably has lost votes for goverment candidates. I I 27 Feb 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/l'RDP79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved Forl lease 2003/08WC RDP79T0097 23900040001-2 CHINA: Peking has announced the formation of the first province-level Young Communist League (YCL) committee since the party's youth auxiliary was dis- mantled during the Cultural Revolution. An editorial in the official party newspaper, People's Daily, on 22 February hailed the establish- ment a new YCL committee in Shanghai, a city with provincial status, and promised that other provinces would soon follow suit. Although the editorial was lenient toward the past mistakes of over-zealous young people, it was clear that the refurbished league will keep youth on a short rein, enrolling new members "very, very carefully." Red Guards, young activists given license to bring down the es- tablishment during the Cultural Revolution, will maintain a separate organization, politically less prestigious but apparently not subordinate to the party's youth auxiliary. The league is responsible for mobilizing young people in general, but has been given direct control only over the Little Red Sol- diers, the children's organization that has perma- nently supplanted its pre-Cultural Revolution fore- runner. Reconstructing the Youth League, a process that has been delayed because of more pressing political problems, will allow the party to re-establish tra- ditional lines of control over troublesome young people. Youthful indiscipline has been a chronic problem since the freewheeling days of the Cultural Revolution. Official propaganda frequently com- plains of indiscipline among young factory workers, I Al- though the return to organizational discipline is seen in some official circles as a device to hand- cuff young people, moderates in the leadership view the league as an instrument to channel youthful energies toward party-directed goals. Moreover, it is an important source of new recruits for the party, a notion that China's aging leadershi must keep in mind in planning the arty's future. Centra, ntelligence Bulletin 3 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/$EOj p79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved For Release 2003/ 1,,2 RDP79T00975A023900040001-2 ICELAND: Pending wage-price hikes could fur- ther swell the burgeoning inflation and trigger the fall of the already unstable coalition government. The cost-of-living jumped about 17 percent in the past year, with food prices increasing almost 18 percent and the housing index rising over 21 per- cent. During the same period wages shot up 18 per cent, mostly in cost-of-living adjustments. In the absence of legislative controls, private sector wages will increase another 12 percent and govern- ment employees' pay 14 percent on 1 March. The fishing industry, the mainstay of the econ- omy, has serious problems. Costs are rising and catches are declining. The volcanic eruption on Heimaey Island forced the evacuation of Iceland's largest fishing town and at least temporarily knocked out about 17 percent of the industry's processing capacity. Although recent devaluation of the krona should benefit exports, it also will raise import prices and thus add further inflationary pressures. Hannibal Valdimarsson, leader of the Organiza- tion of Liberals and Leftists (OLL)--a partner in the left-center coalition--nearly brought down the government last December when he demanded devalua- tion of the krona as a hedge against inflation. The other coalition parties agreed to the devaluation despite their campaign pledge to hold the line. The OLL might use the current economic difficulties as an excuse to desert the coalition, which has gained a reputation for fiscal irresponsibility. Valdi- marsson apparently hopes new elections would result in a right-center coalition, uniting his party with the opposition Social Democrats and the Independence Party. Oppose n leaders reportedly favor this type of coalition.ch a government would pursue a mod- erate policy vis-a-vis the US in base negotiations as well__A toward the British in the fishing limits dispute. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/? MRC"DP79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved Forllease 2003 &Rtl'k RDP79T00975A923900040001-2 MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Demonstrations over the eeken in the port city of Diego Suarez, the head- weekend-7-n- quarters of French military forces in the Indian Ocean, have aggravated an already difficult domestic situation. The demonstrators, most of whom were apparently members of Madagascar's coastal tribes, were protest- ing a possible move to end the French military pres- ence on the island. The French base provides jobs and incomes for a large number of coastals. Opposi- tion to the base comes mainly from students and workers, mostly members of the Merina tribe of cen- tral Madagascar whose demonstrations in Tananarive last May led to the replacement of former president Tsiranana by a military-civilian government headed by General Ramanantsoa. The question of the future status of Diego Suarez is one of the major issues in current nego- tiations under way in Paris on revision of French- Malagasy cooperation agreements. The French are reluctant to surrender rights to Diego Suarez, while the Malagasy are increasingly insistent on asserting their sovereignty over the base. The talks are deadlocked because of what the French consider excessive and unrealistic demands on the part of the Malagasy. The Malagasy Government, already sus- picious of the French role in encouraging tribal divisions, will probably conclude that the French provoked the riots in an effort to influence the outcome of the base talks. The demonstrators also protested educational reforms that the coastals believe benefit mainly the Merina. Coastal dissatisfaction with educa- tional policy led to tribal clashes in another ma- jor port city last December. In addition, many coastals view the Ramanantsoa government as an in- strument for imposing Merina domination on the is- land because a large number of ministries are held by Merina. (continued) 27 Feb 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/O c:`CK I DP79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved For R%Iease 2003/0%F2ADP79T009T5U23900040001-2 Tribal tensions and a faltering economy have already produced considerable unrest. One major coastal political figure, former vice-president Andre Resampa, has called for the replacement of Ramanantsoa's government by a provisional govern- ment composed of the island's major political par- ties. Resampa's demand is indicative of a growing feeling on the part of many Malagasy that Ramanantsoa has allowed events to drift without coming forward with precise policies to calm tribal passions or deal with conflicting demands for reforms from the island's factionalized political groups. 27 Feb 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0 -' DP79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved Forliialease 2003/0881E P79T0097aa,e23900040001-2 MAURITANIA-FRANCE: The new cooperation agree- ments, signed recently in Nouakchott and replacing those in existence since 1960, have redefined formal relations between the two countries. The three agreements cover economic relations and technical and cultural cooperation. Paris' continued refusal to grant Mauritania an operations account with the Bank of France, together with Mauritania's previously announced decision to es- tablish a national currency, has ensured Mauri- tania's formal withdrawal from the franc zone. Tripoli, meanwhile, has offered a substantial drawing account with the Bank of Libya. Future French economic assistance will be on a project- by-project basis, but the issue is complicated by an unresolved debate among French officials re- garding the extent of changes to be made in the kind of assistance Nouakchott will receive. The French Finance Ministry insists that because of these recent monetary decisions Nouakchott can no longer be given capital assistance and should be limited to grants for studies and technical as- sistance. Secretary of State for Cooperation Billecocq supports less restrictive terms in line with his advocacy of a more open and flexible policy toward France's client states. The accord on cultural cooperation provides for continuing French educational assistance while permitting Mauritania to give education a more national character, primarily by abolishing the requirement for equivalency between French and Mauritanian diplomas. The technical agreement describes the status of French civilian technical assistants and is believed to provide for a re- duction in the number of technicians. The two sides failed to reach agreement on military cooperation. Mauritania refused to grant France military overflight rights and asked for the withdrawal of all French military advisers in 27 Feb 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/08/tE?IR 79T00975AO23900040001-2 Approved For Release 2003/0$9 RiMbP79T00975A023900040001-2 response to the French insistence that the con- tinuation of the advisory mission depended on con- cessions to the French position on overflights. The differences of opinion on military issues created considerable rancor, in contrast to the amicable negotiations on the other accords. The new agreements largely satisfy Ould Dad- dah's desire to acquire full sovereignty for Mau- ritania, while retaining friendly relations with France. He has publicly praised the accords, but he also cautioned that Mauritanians will have to accept some economic sacrifices in return for achieving control over their economy. As a precedent for negotiations with other African countries, the accords seem to indicate that while France is prepared largely to satisfy African demands regarding cultural and technical assistance, Paris will maintain its traditionally conservative policy in the monetary area. 27 Feb 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/05/E 'kDP79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved For lease 2003/OCV B1l--DP79TOO975O23900040001-2 25X1 URUGUAY: The viability of the leftist Frente Amp o coalition appears to have been seriously threatened by internal differences over the mili- tary's virtual take-over of government. The split has pitted the two stronger pro-mil- itary members of the coalition--the Communist and Christian Democratic parties--against several minor- ity parties, whose reservations about the military revolt against President Bordaberry were apparently ignored at the height of the crisis. A split in the coalition reportedly developed when several of its senators walked out of the rally on 9 February at which its principal spokesman, retired General Libes Seregni, called for the resignation of Bordaberry. Seregni's speech was taken to be a show of leftist support for the military. Should Frente Amplio's internal differences force it to disband, the military will find its po- sition in dictating to the civilian government fur- ther strengthened. It will also, however, gain a vocal and perhaps unwanted ally on the extreme left. Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/08/ . A=REP79TOO975AO23900040001-2 Approved For Release 2003/ 12C:k DP79T0097-5A~b23900040001-2 NOTE EUROPEAN SECURITY CONFERENC : The third ses- sion of preparatory talks for a Conference on Se- curity and Cooperation in Euro e opened in Helsinki yesterday afterN4 two-week re ess. At the two previous sessionsvarious a nda proposals were gathered into four `basket ," and hard bargaining will now take place i?n effort to reconcile dif- fering Soviet and Weste approaches. The West wants the agenda spelle t in some detail before commitments are made o que tions of the timing and location of the a tual co ference. So far this position has pr vailed. A a result, Soviet officials have expr ssed disappo tment over the slow pace of the t lks. Moscow ap ears to have scaled down its e rlier inflated ex ctations of what can be acco plished at a confere ce, and will probably conce rate on obtaining West rn agree- ment on what regards as the central i ues: en- he principles of inviolabili y of dorsement of It; frontiers and non-use of force and a roval of a post-conference consultative organ. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/09 gkl RDP79T00975A023900040001-2 Approved Fdi elease 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T0097 023900040001-2 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900040001-2