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December 14, 2016
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August 21, 2003
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March 6, 1973
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Approved For Reuse 2003/08/27: CIA-RDP79T00975A 3 9 0 0 1 0W--Pt 25X1 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret fie. 4I Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023900100001-5 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900100001-5 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900100001-5 Approved For Rase 2003/08/:&E?RRP79T00975A6900100001-5 No. 0056/73 6 March 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: The dollar strengthens as monetary authorities prepare for consultations. (Page 1) CHILE: Delay in the announcement of congressional election results will have prolonged repercussions. (Page 3) EUROPEAN LABOR: Effort to organize European-wide labor grouping advances. (Page 4) ROMANIA-US: First purchase of US airliner by War- saw Pact country. (Page 5) TURKEY: Presidential succession (Page 6) CHINA: Peking turns to London market for copper (Page 6) JAPAN: Economic development program for Okinawa (Page 7) Approved For Release 2003/08/:&EO-79T00975A023900100001-5 Approved Forv 6lease 2003 R RDP79T0097W23900100001-5 ffie= INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: The dol- lar strengthened world-wide yesterday in unofficial interbank trading as monetary authorities prepare for the meeting in Paris on Friday. The dollar showed its greatest strength rela- tive to the pound and Swiss franc. The pound closed down 2 percent from Friday while the Swiss franc was off 2.6 percent, but nevertheless still more than 20 percent above the pre-dollar devaluation central rate. The decline reflects money market anticipa- tion of lower dollar rates for these floating cur- rencies if, and when, a joint EC float is realized. In light trading the dollar also showed modest gains against other major currencies. After some preliminary discussions on the prob- lems of the joint float, the EC finance ministers called for a meeting on Friday of the Group of Ten and representatives from the smaller EC countries. The French intend to use the meeting to convince the US that the present rate structure should be defended, but, failing this, Paris may still agree to support a joint EC float if the UK is included. Although the West Germans are hopeful that a joint float can be implemented, Bonn may be forced to float independently in the absence of an EC agree- ment. The Tokyo foreign exchange market probably will remain closed until the European markets are reopened. When trading resumes the Bank of Japan may continue the yen float until mid-year if the EC agrees to a joint float. The government believes a long float would help Tokyo's international image but only if large-scale intervention in the exchange market can be avoided. Until the market closed last week, central bank intervention was held to a mini- mum, partially because of various stop-gap measures including the delay of central bank approvals of 6 Mar 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/Q RDP79T00975AO23900100001-5 Approved For`tlease 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975A 23900100001-5 SECRET export licenses. Such moves are likely to be con- tinued unless Tokyo is prepared to accept a sub- stantially higher yen appreciation than has already occurred. Tokyo apparently wishes to limit the yen's revaluation to no more than 20 percent. Central Intelligence Bulletin .25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900100001-5 SECRET Approved Fo lease 2003/087 C JI DP79T0097? 023900100001-5 C CHILE: The unusual delay in announcing final results of congressional elections held on 4 March will have prolonged repercussions. Opposition spokesmen were not satisfied by the Allende government's explanations for postponing the official total vote tally, despite reassurances from Interior Minister and army chief General Prats. The delay centered on returns in Santiago, where some 35 percent of Chilean voters live and where top leaders of parties on both sides contended against others in their own coalition as well as against opposition candidates. The key question was whether Communist Senator Teitelboim and Socialist Senator Altamirano, bitter rivals representing the deep divisions in Allende's Popular Unity (UP) coali- tion, were both re-elected. Opposition leaders sus- pect that the lag in reporting women's votes was de- signed to ensure the re-election of both when oppo- sition candidates appeared to have captured all but one of Santiago's five senate seats. Official returns now support the UP claim that it has whittled several seats from the opposition majority in both congressional houses. Thus the Christian Democratic and National parties will need to work more closely than before to oppose Allende's programs effectively. Neither seems disposed, how- ever, to continue the cooperation that marked their common electoral campaign. General Prats' recent references to the basic uncongeniality of the two major opposition parties may be a first step in a renewed effort on his part to get the Christian Democrats into an exploratory "dialogue" with the government. Prats apparently intends to keep the armed forces in the cabinet and may feel that moderate oppositionists should join his efforts to ease political tensions and modif the administration's al programs. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/088OR1P79T00975A023900100001-5 Approved For Release 2003/088 76?t-#PP79T00975A023900100001-5 EUROPEAN LABOR: The decision of the European affi sates o t e World Confederation of Labor (WCL) to apply for membership in the new European Trade Unions Confederation (ETUC) advances the effort to organize a European-wide, non-Communist labor group- ing. European affiliates of the International Con- federation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) already belong to the ETUC. The French Confederation of Democratic Trade Unions (CFDT) contends that the large Communist-dominated unions of France and Italy with the support of the Soviet-dominated World Fed- eration of Trade Unions (WFTU) will try to frustrate the formation of a strong West European labor body. The CFDT has been urging the other WCL unions to join the ETUC. The CFDT's campaign, which had the support of the two Dutch affiliates, has apparently now picked up the support of the Belgian Confedera- tion of Christian Trade Unions--the most powerful of the WCL affiliates. Some of the ETUC's present members have mixed feelings about accepting the new applicants, but it is doubtful that there will be enough opposition to keep them out. The main opponents will be the ICFTU unions of France and Belgium. Leading ETUC officials have said they strongly favor admission of the WCL unions, and the new ETUC president, British union leader Victor Feather, also endorses their inclusion. Some delay may be caused, however, by organization and policy problems associated with getting the ETUC itself started. It is possible that the Communist unions in France and Italy will also attempt to join the ETUC, but most of the membership--including new WCL af- filiates--would strongly oppose their admission. Enlargement of the ETUC will probably also work against WFTU's campaign for "pan-European" trade union organization. 6 Mar 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0> ( 7Cft1kiDP79T00975A023900100001-5 Approved Foi elease 2003/08/27: CIA- DP79T0097 023900100001-5 SECRET RO NIA-US: Romania has become the first War- saw Pact country to buy US passenger aircraft, thus adding a new dimension to the already good relations between Washington and Bucharest. A contract for the purchase of three Boeing 707-320C long-range jet airliners, spare parts, and spare engines, valued at $45 million was signed last week. During the closing days of negotiations, the Romanians dropped their request that 50 percent of the total price be paid by Romanian manufacture of some Boeing parts. Bucharest instead chose a straight financing arrangement. One of the aircraft will be configured for VIP service and the others probably for passenger service. The aircraft, to be delivered by June 1974, may be used to inaugurate Bucharest-New York and/or Bucharest-Peking service by TAROM, the Romanian national airline. The Boeing deal is not the first manifestation of Romania's independent stance in civil aviation. TAROM is already flying six medium range BAC-111-400s purchased from the UK in 1968. Although the Roma- nians agreed to buy three Soviet IL-62s about a year ago, they have continued to postpone delivery dates. The delays may stem from their concern over two accidents involving IL-62 aircraft in recent months. 6 Mar 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/08dDP79T00975A023900100001-5 Approved For Release 2003/0 t.gn FDP79T00975A023900100001-5 NOTES TURKEY: General Faruk Gurler's resignation as chief of the general staff is his first step toward becoming president. In order to be eli- gible for the presidency, Gurler must be a member of parliament; the defense minister has resigned from the senate, providing outgoing president Cevdet Sunay with a vacancy to which he is ex- pected to name Gurler. The election of Gurler as president by parliament on 13 March thus seems assured. It is unlikely that Gurler would have resigned as general staff chief had he.not been guaranteed the necessary votes in parliament. His candidacy presumably signifies that Justice Party chief Suleyman Demirel, as well as other party leaders, have bowed to pressures from the generals after several months of wrangling over the choice of the next president. CHINA: Peking purchased 30,000 tons of copper on the London metals market last month, reportedly because Chile--one of its major suppliers--was un- able to meet contract delivery deadlines. In the last year or so, China has been contracting directly with copper exporting nations rather than dealing through London brokers. In view of the problem with Chile and China's difficulties in maintaining domestic copper production over the last two years, Peking probably will return to the world market for more copper. London sources are predicting that China will purchase at least 20,000 tons this month. ,25X1 /-a 25X1 (continued) Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/}fWDP79T00975A023900100001-5 Approved Fo lease 2003/08/;i;.(CR--RQP79T0097400239 00100001-5 JAPAN: Tokyo is considering a ten-yea r eco- ---I nomic development plan to reduce Okinawa's ence on US military bases and raise its per income closer to Japan's national average. depend- capita The program would triple per capita income by 1982 through developing tourism, expanding existing industries, and relocating some plants from the Japanese mainland. The last move would be in line with Tokyo's scheme of stressing industrial de- velopment outside major cities. Central Intelligence Bulletin 2- 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/2$E1J F 79T00975A023900100001-5 Approved For``Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975A23900100001-5 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2003/08/27 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23900100001-5