CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: April 12, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/05: CIA-RDP79T00975AO242AME914
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 40
12 April 1973
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
 Approved For Release 2003/
i~FADP79T00975A024200060003-4
No. 0088/73
12 April 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
FEDAYEEN-LEBANON: A major campaign to incite anti-
American sentiment is being mounted. (Page 1)
WORLD RICE SITUATION: Acute shortages will persist
at least until fall. (Page 2)
PERU: Armored division commander arrested. (Page 6)
PAKISTAN: Agreement on constitution may give Bhutto
opportunity to turn to foreign affairs issues.
(Page 7)
JAPAN: First squadron of F-4EJ jet fighters being
formed. (Page 8)
ECUADOR: Hard line on petroleum takes on anti-US
aT vor. (Page 9)
LAOS: North Vietnamese launch heavy attack (Page 11)
JAPAN: Imports growing rapidly (Page 11)
Approved For Release 2003/0? Z-g-KDP79T00975A024200060003-4
 Approved For Release 200$ /0 k'i -RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
CFEDAYEEN-LEBANON: Palestinian guerrilla organ-
izations are mounting a major campaign to incite
anti-American sentiment and are staging incidents
against US diplomatic installations in Beirut.
Fedayeen led a number of unruly demonstrations
yesterday, involving hundreds of students and pro-
Palestinian sympathizers, against alleged US com-
plicity in the Israeli commando raid. Anti-Ameri-
can propaganda was disseminated through leaflets and
the use of loudspeakers on autos.
During one mass protest, minor damage was in-
flicted on a USIA building. Security forces fired
automatic weapons near the installation but there
are no reports of casualties. For the second day,
police dispersed demonstrators attempting to reach
the US Embassy. The security forces could be even
more severely tested as guerrilla agitators almost
certainly will use the occasion of the funeral to-day for three slain fedayeen leaders to provoke
incidents. Further reflecting fedayeen intentions,
the Algiers Voice of Palestine broadcast called on
Arab masses to "kill everyone who is American."
The Israeli raid and domestic reactions to it
have severely shaken the Lebanese Government. Prime
Minister Salam's offer to resign is an apparent ef-
fort to dissociate himself from the government,
which.is being criticized for the army's failure to
resist the Israelis. I 25X1
a am s resignation has not yet een ac-
cept-ea,
the form
but Franjiyah is believed to be considering
ation of a new government of "national
union" presumably to include more leftist, pro-
Palestinian elements.
25X1
12 Apr 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/66i`&RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
 Approved For Release 2003/"`& RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
WORLD RICE SITUATION: There is very little
exportable rice avail ab e for purchase in world
markets, and prices for the small quantities avail-
able have more than doubled in the past nine months.
In the wake of last year's poor monsoon, defi-
cit rice countries have been searching for supplies
on the world market. Thailand, the world's leading
exporter last year, has ceased quoting export prices
until it determines the state of its domestic supply.
US exporters, with only limited stocks remaining,
are asking more than $300 per ton for high quality
rice, compared with about $150 last July.
The acute rice shortage will persist at least
until the fall harvest. The US harvest probably
will be delayed as a result of excessive spring
rainfall and may not meet the planned 10-percent
increase in production. The major Asian crop will
not be harvested until November.
Total rice exports this year almost certainly
will be less than 7 million tons, compared with
the record 8 million tons exported last year. Ex-
ports of rice, however, normally amount to less
than 5 percent of world consumption. US sales
abroad probably will be comparable to last year's
2 million tons. Thai exports are expected to be
only about half of last year's 2 million tons.
Burma will be hard-pressed to export even half of
last year's 520,000 tons. Japan plans to limit
exports to 350,000 tons, compared with 500,000 tons
last year. China probably will maintain, and may
even be tempted by high prices to exceed, the
800,000 tons exported last year.
While exporting countries will benefit from
higher prices, the rice shortage and high import
prices for rice and substitute grains are intensify-
ing foreign exchange difficulties for such importing
12 Apr 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
 Approved For Release 2003/($BC-jt]AA~DP79T00975A024200060003-4
countries as India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Phil-
ippines, and Sri Lanka. Increased domestic infla-
tion and short rice supplies are eroding already
low standards of living and causing political prob-
lems for some of these governments.
12 Apr 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0> SC IFTDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
 Approved For Release 2003/C(DJCRJA'PDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
PERU: The reported arrest on Tuesday of Gen-
eral Rafael Hoyos Rubio and his removal as commander
of the armored division strengthen moderate elements
who are maneuvering to ensure that someone acceptable
to them, probably Prime Minister Mercado, will suc-
ceed President Velasco. Loss of effective control
over the key Lima-based unit will seriously erode
Velasco's ability to hang on to the presidency in-
definitely and limit his influence on the choice of
his successor.
Hoyos was removed by Mercado, acting in his
capacity as army commander and minister of war.
Hoyos' recent closeness to radical elements in the
army and his threats to use force to resolve the
succession issue apparently caused his removal.
Velasco heretofore has managed to keep the armored
division in the hands of trusted friends, but Gen-
eral Gonzalo Briceno Zevallos, the new commander
named by Mercado, is not an admirer of the Presi-
dent. Briceno is a top-notch officer with outstand-
ing leadership qualities who can be trusted by the
moderates.
25X1
The radicals, now on notice that the moderates
will not stand for a minority dictating the presi-
dential choice by threat of force, have yet to re-
act to Hoyos' dismissal and arrest. Their position
has been significantly weakened by the change in
command.
12 Apr 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/0S/0 P) DP79TOO975AO24200060003-4
 Approved For Release 200381-RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
PAKISTAN: President Bhutto's agreement with
the opposition o that cleared the way for approval
of the new constitution may bring an interlude of
relative calm to Pakistani politics, giving Bhutto
for a time more freedom to deal with relations with
India and Bangladesh. In two recent speeches, in-
cluding one immediately after the agreement, Bhutto_
has argued strongly for recognition of Dacca and
better relations with New Delhi.
On 10 April the opposition agreed to support
the new constitution--which the National Assembly
then approved almost unanimously--ostensibly in ex-
change for some minor changes in the document. The
amended constitution, however, is still basically
what Bhutto wanted. There is speculation that
Bhutto also agreed to restore to the opposition
control of two provincial governments that he had
taken over.
If a deal along these lines has been made,
neither side has really given up very much.
Bhutto's overwhelming majority in the assembly gave
the opposition no hope of blocking the constitution.
In the two provinces, Bhutto's followers have spent
almost two months in an unsuccessful attempt to
forge new-coalitions to replace the ones the Presi-
dent forced out of office in February. Such an
agreement would lessen tensions temporarily, but
is not a permanent solution to Pakistan's basic
political problems that include balancing regional
rivalries and disagreements over economic and for-
eign policies, which are heightened by intense com-
petition for political power.
12 Apr 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 20039) IA-RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
 Approved For Release 200/h01-RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
JAPAN: The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force is
forming its first squadron of F-4EJ jet fighters.
The unit--which now has about ten aircraft--is at
Hyakuri Air Base near Tokyo and will be ready for
operations late this year. The F-4EJ squadron is
the first of four to be formed during the current
defense plan, which extends into 1977. Aircraft
for at least one additional squadron have been
authorized. The F-4EJs are being assembled by
Mitsubishi in Japan under a US production license.
A total of 128 are on order for the five squadrons,
and they will be delivered to the air force at the
rate of two per month over the next several years.
The F-4EJs will significantly strengthen
Japan's air defenses and provide the air force
with an all-weather capability. They are supple-
menting F104J interceptors in an air defense role.
The air force still maintains seven squadrons of
F-104Js as well as seven squadrons of aging F-86
fighters. Some of the F-86s will continue to be
used in a ground support role until the end of
the decade when they will gradually be replaced
by new FS-T2 fighter bombers now being developed
by the Japanese.
12 Apr 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 200 A-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
 i
Approved For Release 2003/0 }&I'bP79T00975A024200060003-4
ECUADOR: The government's continuing hard
line on petroleum may be taking on an anti-US
flavor.
Minister of Natural Resources Jarrin is ada-
mant in his view that the world energy crisis must
eventually oblige US oil companies to meet his
stringent requirements for operating in Ecuador's
oil producing areas. He seems confident that if
the US companies refuse, West European and Japa-
nese companies will eagerly fill the void. In
an effort to encourage nationalizations, the Soviet
Union has reportedly offered technical assistance
if a national petroleum industry is created.
25X1
Rodriguez may remain on the sidelines until
June, when foreign oil companies will be required
to restructure their Ecuadorean operations under
strict new contract regulations. If the companies
show signs of pulling out, Rodriguez may try to
wrest control of petroleum policy from Jarrin,
even though this might provoke a power contest.
12 Apr 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/ D6,A'fDP79T00975A024200060003-4
 Approved For Release 20031 EIS-RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
? Government-held location
? Communist-held location
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/SEA ~DP79T00975AO24200060003-4
 Approved For Release 2003 $LWO1 R l `RDP79T00975A024200060003-4
LAOS: North Vietnamese units on 11 April
launched a heavy attack against government posi-
tions near Tha Viang, a village on Route 4 south-
east of the Plaine des Jarres. Government troops,
supported by Lao T-28s, so far have held most posi-
tions and have suffered few casualties. 1 ::1
JAPAN: Import growth, which has been rapid
in recent months, will probably accelerate during
the second quarter of 1973. The Ministry of In-
ternational Trade and Industry last month issued
licenses for a record $3.6 billion in imports,
almost double the value of those issued in March
1972. This follows an increase in imports licensed
in February of 66 percent over the comparable
month in 1972. Most of these increases will be
reflected in the trade statistics for the next few
months. Although the value of export contracts
is running 20-25 percent higher than a year ago,
the trade surplus for the second quarter of 1973
will almost certainly be somewhat smaller than for
the same quarter last year. Much of the growth
in the dollar value of imports reflects higher
world prices for raw materials that make up most
of Japanese imports. If prices stabilize or de-
cline, the trade surplus could swell unless export
growth also slows sharply.
12 Apr 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0> 65`:"-'DP79T00975A024200060003-4
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24200060003-4