CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024200080001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 14, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
N2 40
14 April 1973
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No. OQ90/73
.14 April 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
UN: Security Council debates Israel's Beirut at-
tack. (Page 1)
CHILE: Political groups shift tactics. (Page 2)
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SIKKIM: Political compromise. (Page 4)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA - WEST GERMANY: Burying the hatchet.
(Page 5)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: France wants soybeans in-
clu e in farm support system. (Page 5)
LAOS: Government units retreat. (Page 7)
FRANCE: Economy growing. (Page 7)
CHINA: Fertilizer production. purchase. (Page 7)
USSR-JAPAN: Soviet shift on natural gas project.
(Page 8)
CHINA-AFRICA: Interest-free loan to Cameroon.
(Page 8)
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SECRET
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CUN: The Security Council last night was sub-
jected-to further Arab pressures to condemn Israel's
attack on the fedayeen in Beirut. When the Council
meets today, Arab states may further increase this
pressure with discussion of expulsion of Israel.
Although Lebanon has assured US officials that
it will support a balanced resolution that condemns
all forms of violence, Beirut will more likely bow
to Arab pressures for censure of the Israeli raids
alone. Given the current composition of the Coun-
cil, the Arabs probably can command the nine votes
needed to pass a resolution condemning Israel un-
less there is a veto by a major power.
The American Embassy in Beirut has been for-
mally assured that Egypt and Algeria will also as-
sume moderate positions, but it is more probable
that they will exploit the situation to embarrass
the US. This is apparently Israel's conclusion;
the Israeli representative has confided that he
is relying upon a US veto.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Zayyat's arrival
in New York yesterday indicates Cairo's interest
in exploiting the Lebanese situation for its own
purposes. The Egyptians are not likely to be con-
tent with a discussion limited to the Israeli raid.
Zayyat probably will attempt to broaden the agenda
to include a general examination of the Arab-Is-
raeli standoff in hopes of generating pressure on
Israel to offer more acceptable terms for a set-
tlement. In support of this effort, Cairo may try
to press for a strong anti-Israeli resolution with
broad international support in order to isolate
the US. Before leaving Egypt, Zayyat implied that
he would seek Israel's expulsion from the UN be-
cause of its so-called "crimes."
Given the USSR's endorsement of Israeli ex-
pulsion last night, Zayyat may well pursue that
line when he addresses the Council today. USUN
officials know of no draft resolutions prepared
for today's meeting, however, and a formal proposal
for expulsion would have little prospect for sup-
port. F
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CHILE: Political groups are beginning to shift
tactics in the wake of the congressional elections.
The continuing tension is reflected in armed clashes
and charges by the government of plotting against it.
Defying an explicit demand by President Allende
early this month that workers stop seizing roads and
factories to press economic demands, the Movement
of the Revolutionary Left (MIR) and other leftist
militants have continued to instigate disturbances
in Santiago and outlying areas. Openly boasting of
their troublemaking role, they are condemning Com-
munist officials for sending the police to "repress"
the workers. Allende's spokesman charged on
10 April that the MIR was involved in a plot by the
extreme right-wing Fatherland and Freedom to lure
workers into uprisings.
It is clear that extremists of both left and
right are trying to promote civil disorders.
Whether they are in collusion is less certain, but
the accusation may be Allende's way of warning the
MIR and its allies that he is ready at last to
crack down on their attempts to incite violence.
Criticism of the disturbances by several erst-
while supporters of the MIR in the government coali-
tion is further evidence that Allende is trying to
isolate radical elements. Some of them in turn
are beginning to shift their ground.
14 Apr 73
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SIKKIM: Tension should ease following yester-
day's announcement that a conference will be held
in May to work out a political compromise.
The weeks of political unrest that erupted in
antigovernment demonstrations earlier this month
left the chogyal (ruler) with little choice but
to agree to efforts to arrive at some new politi-
cal arrangement. Most importantly, the ethnic
Nepalis, who make up 75 percent of the 200,000 pop-
ulation, are likely to be given a greater role in
government. Various practices and laws favoring
the Bhutia-Lepcha ethnic minority, who support the
chogyal, may be revised. The chogyal's powers,
limited by a 1950 agreement with India, probably
have been further curtailed by the recent events.
Sikkim is an Indian protectorate on the Tibetan
border, and New Delhi did not hesitate to take con-
trol of the administration last week when the pro-
tests got out of hand. The Indians, at the an-
nounced request of the chogyal and with the approval
of his opposition, have played the key role in re-
storing order and arranging the steps toward a po-
litical compromise.
The Indians apparently want the chogyal to
remain as titular head of state. New Delhi pre-
sumably believes the episode will be a reminder
to the chogyal that Sikkim is dependent on India
and at present stands no chance for greater auton-
omy, let alone independence or equal status with
neighboring Nepal and Bhutan, which are UN members.
Although the chogyal has publicly disavowed Indian
complicity in instigating the uprising, his sus-
picion and resentment of India certainly has deep-
ened.
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CZECHOSLOVAKIA - WEST GERMANY: Czechoslovak
and West German negotiators yesterday agreed to
a compromise formula for interpreting the nullity
of the Munich Agreement of 1938. "Compromise" is
probably diplomatic language intended to cover a
Czech surrender on the Agreement.
.The negotiators also announced that tormal talKs
will begin in early May, and should be wrapped up
"in optimal time." It is unlikely that the pro-
posed non-aggression treaty will be ready for ini-
tialing before Brezhnev arrives in Bonn--presumably
around 12 May--but the atmosphere by then should
be propitious for Brezhnev's purposes.
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: France is again press-
ing the Commission to recommend including soybeans--
a major US agricultural export to the community--
in the EC's protectionist farm support system.
The French Agriculture Minister raised the issue
at this week's EC Council meeting, but the Commis-
sion, as well as most EC members--especially West
Germany--are reluctant to introduce another con-
tentious issue into US-EC relations. Although
the Commission will not present a soybeans pro-
posal at next week's Council session, Paris may
exert pressure, with the result that the proposal
could be made part of a package deal in the cur-
rently difficult bargaining over farm support
prices. French Foreign ministry officials have
opposed introduction of the soybeans issue, but
pressures are strong for developing a modest pro-
duction capability in France in order to avoid
complete dependence on US imports.
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(continued)
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LAOS: Plaine des Jarres Area
? Government-held location
Communist-held location
art
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LAOS: Government units late on 12 April aban-
doned all positions near Tha Viang, southeast of
the Plaine des Jarres, according to a preliminary
report. Heavy North Vietnamese artillery and-ground
attacks reportedly caused extensive casualties, and
the government troops are retreating in disorder.
FRANCE: Economic growth this year may sur-
pass t1Fe projected 6-percent rate. Early results
point to a boom year. During January and Febru-
ary, inventories declined and order backlogs rose
as industrial production on a seasonally adjusted
basis jumped 3 percent above the December 1972
level. Industrialists now plan to boost invest-
ment expenditure by 11 percent this year, almost
double the increase expected a few months ago.
Foreign demand remains strong, and the seasonally
adjusted trade surplus for the January-February
period approached $250 million,
CHINA: Peking has purchased a $41-million
fertilizer complex from Japan, raising complete
plant purchases this year to a. record $300 million.
The new complex will consist of ammonia feedstock
and urea production facilities. The urea produc-
tion facility will be based on. technology supplied
by a US firm, M. W. Kellogg. Earlier this year,
Peking purchased three urea plants from a Dutch
firm controlled by Kellogg. No details on financing
the new complex were announced, but other recent
Chinese plant purchases from Japan are being fi-
nanced by medium-term credits from the Japan Ex-
port-Import Bank. Fertilizer complexes account
for about one half of the new plants purchased
this year. When completed, these plants should
more than double China's urea fertilizer capacity.
These purchases suggest that Peking has reassessed
its long-term prospects and found its domestic
urea plant construction programs ad ate to Pro-
vide sufficient fertilizers.
(continued)
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USSR-JAPAN: The Soviet Union once again has
altereditsposition on US and Japanese partici-
pation in the Yakutsk natural gas project. The
Soviets have told the Japanese that they now wish
Japan to negotiate the project on a bilateral ba-
sis, leaving for the US a secondary role to be
determined by the Japanese. This is the third
shift by the Soviets in the last nine months on
the question of Japanese and US roles in exploit-
ing the Yakutsk gas deposit. Since the Japanese
seem to be unable. to handle the project without
US technical and financial support, the maneuver
apparently is an attempt to speed up US action.
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CHINA-AFRICA: A recent $66-million Chinese
credit to Cameroon demonstrates China's continuing
interest in Africa. The interest-free loan, nego-
tiated during President Ahidjo's recent visit to
China, may include aid agreed to last August. The
new assistance brings to $166 million China's aid
to Africa so far this year. Projects for Cameroon
will be determined later, but Ahidjo indicated the
credit might be used in part for agriculture and
for food-processing industries. This credit will
increase economic ties between the two countries
which have been minimal since diplomatic relations
were established in April 1971.
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Secret
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