CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024400010002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 21, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 3, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C 20i
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3 May 1973
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3 May 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR-JAPAN: Soviets again indicate interest in
compromise on Northern Territories issue. (Page 1)
GREECE: Papadopoulos has come under sharp attack
and the outlook is for more political uncertainty
and popular dissatisfaction. (Page 3)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12)
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"Northern Territories"
SAKHALIN
"Northern Territories A Etorofiu
Kunashiri
4sShikotan
tit,'; OF J4f'IA
JAPAN
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USSR-JAPAN: The Soviets are again making dis-
creet attempts to get Japan to think seriously about
compromising on. the Northern Territories problem.
Unofficial statements have been made to Japanese
diplomats on at least two occasions recently that
Moscow is willing to return two of the islands
(Habomai and Shikotan) claimed by Japan when a
peace treaty is signed and that there be "joint use"
of the other two major islands.
The USSR has taken informal soundings of this
kind before. Early last year there were numerous
indications that Moscow was weighing various com-
promise proposals and soliciting Japanese reaction.
By summer, however, the Soviets concluded that Tokyo
was trying to capitalize on its improved relations
with Peking in order to force Moscow to cave in and
return all the islands immediately. To discourage
this tactic, the Soviets gave Tokyo's territorial
demands short shrift.
Moscow maintained this tougher stand until
early March, when an exchange of letters between
Tanaka and Brezhnev brought some improvement in the
atmosphere. Tanaka helped break the ice by promis-
ing that Japan would back the $1-billion Tyumen oil
project, provided agreement could be reached on is-
sues such as price and quality of oil. His move
capped earlier indications from Tokyo that Japan
would not officially :Link its participation in joint
economic ventures in Siberia with more intractable
political problems.
Tokyo's changing attitude showed that it wants
better balance in its relations with China and the
USSR, and Moscow responded enthusiastically. After
the Tanaka-Brezhnev exchange, Soviet media abruptly
stopped mentioning the Northern Territories issue--
the major stumbling block to significant improvement
in Soviet-Japanese political ties. The Soviets have
focused instead on prospects for economic coopera-
tion, and have made no secret of their hope that a
common interest in better relations across the board
will help settle the territorial issue.
(continued)
3 May 73
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The Soviets apparently hope to engender some
flexibility in the Japanese position by hinting at
some give in their own. In floating possible com-
promise solutions, they have their eye on Tanaka's
visit to the USSR late this summer when the Northern
Territories question is certain to arise. There
will be plenty of time and opportunity for further
attempts to probe Tokyo's attitude. Deputy Foreign
Trade Minister Osipov, for example, is due in Tokyo
later this month,
3 May 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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GREECE: The government of Prime Minister Papa-
dopoulos has recently been sharply attacked by former
prime minister Karamanlis, and a number of the old
guard politicians have stood up, apparently anxious
to be counted with him. The attack in itself is not
a serious blow to the regime; that it could take
place at all is a measure of the weakness of the
government.
The ruling military junta has never lived up
to the promises of its "revolution" six years ago.
It has failed in its efforts to:
--make the government efficient and responsive,
--work out a political system that would permit
popular participation in government, and
--formally resolve the status of the monarchy
and institute a new system of government.
As a result, politically conscious Greeks sense
that Papadopoulos' administration is losing steam
and, as it enters its seventh year, symptoms of
malaise are plentiful:
--Disobedient students continue their opposi-
tion to the government even after their revolt
was suppressed and civil libertarians who de-
fended them were jailed.
--Troubles on Cyprus between General Grivas
and President Makarios threaten to get out of
hand while stability on Cyprus and a peaceful
relationship with Turkey remain a top priority
to Athens. The Turks are now worried that
Grivas' violence may engulf the Turkish minor-
ity. They have asked Athens to curb the Gen-
eral. But the Papadopoulos government cannot
control him.
--A variety of ambitious military officers
from all levels are disgusted with the inef-
fectiveness of the government and have been
3 May 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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plotting against Papadopoulos for years. Their
planning has seemed more serious in the past 12
months. Their lack of unanimity and Papadopou-
los' vigilance has kept a military coup from
succeeding.
Papadopoulos is aware of the symptoms, but he
does not appear to have workable ideas about how to
tackle the basic issues.
Papadopoulos is vulnerable, but at present is
not weak enough to be thrown out of office by any-
one but a concerted group of military officers.
The outlook for Greece is for more of the same po-
litical uncertainty and popular dissatisfaction.
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FOR THE RECORD*
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Canada-Vietnam: Canadian frustration over the
functioning of the ICCS is likely to increase. follow-
ing an incident yesterday in which two Commission
helicopters were fired on. An angry Canadian offi-
cial said that this latest incident, along with
Polish-Hungarian obstructionism, would come close
to "finishing" the Commission.
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Czechoslovakia-USSR-FRG: Czech Foreign Minister
Chnoupek arrived in Moscow yesterday for three days
of talks with Soviet officials, probably about Bonn-
Prague treaty negotiations that begin next Monday. F
'These items are prepared overnight by CIA without
coordination.
3 May 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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