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December 15, 2016
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October 8, 2003
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July 25, 1973
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Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 25X1 Top Secret Central Intelligence Bulletin Top Secret C 25 July 1973 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 Approved or Release !003110115 C1171 - 11, c; -6 25X1 25 July 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin CHILE: Allende trying to defuse tense political si'tuation. (Page 1) CHINA: Last year's disappointing harvest has po- litical repercussions. (Page 2). EC-SPAIN: Parties agree on goal of free-trade pact but'remain far apart on details and timing. (Page 3) FRANCE-USSR: Foreign Minister Jobert going to Moscow for talks. (Page 4) JAPAN: Rice exports to increase sharply. (Page 5) IRAN-JORDAN-TUNISIA: Tehran loans show support for Arab moderates. (Page 5) 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A024900090001-6 I 25X1 Approve CHILE: President Allende has increased his effort to defuse the tense political situation, and speculation in Santiago now centers on the possibility that the military will again be represented in the cabinet. Most businesses and professional guilds r port- edly have postponed their nationwide strike, but the ay persist in its Workers still occupy the in- J plan for a walkout. dustries they seized on 29 June, and the military and police are continuing their search for illegal arms. Allende will soon face a congressional in- quiry into charges that the congressional elections last March were tainted by massive electoral fraud. The armed forces remain deeply troubled by the nation's plight. The feeling is spreading that some- thing must be done, but most. ranking officers still appear to believe that it would be better to work through the present government than to risk trying to overthrow it. Allende since last Thursday has been holding meetings with the three service commanders and with Popular Unity leaders. He may be groping for a formula for getting the military back into the cab- inet that would satisfy both the armed forces and his own supporters. However, as long as the mili- tary insists on real power and the Communists and Socialists remain reluctant to share it, this for- mula will remain elusive. Nevertheless, the time could be right for com- promise. None of the major political forces--the government and its civilian supporters, the military, and the civilian opposition---seems confident of pre- vailing in the current war of nerves or in an armed confrontation. A political truce may look more and more like a welcome respite to all sides. The Chris- tian Democrats, for example, may be ready to agree to the dialogue sought b Allende if the military re-enters the cabinet. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A024900090g01-6 Approve For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090 01-6 CHINA: Last year's disappointing harvest has caused political repercussions in the Chinese leader- ship. Vice Premier Li Fu-chun, at one time a leading economic planner, reportedly apologized late last year for overestimating Ch:Lnars industrial growth In the wake of last year's subnormal harvest, Peking has taken steps to shift more manpower to agriculture. It imposed a stiff 5-percent ceiling on the number of workers in the countryside allowed to do nonfarming work, reportedly instituted a freeze on the hiring of urban factory workers, and sharply accelerated the campaign to send city youth to work in agriculture. These moves probably resulted from concern over current harvest prospects rather than from any mis- calculation by Li Fu-chun. Adverse weather condi- tions were the primary reason for last year's short- fall, and no planner can program natural calamities. Additional manpower will improve harvest prospects somewhat this year, but ultimately weather is the single most important factor. The aging Li Fu-chun has not been active in recent years. By accepting the blame, however, Li deflects criticism from others more directly in- volved in managing the economy and satisfies the need for a scapegoat. He was replaced as chief planner last fall by Yu Ch:iu-1i; both have been close associates of Chou En-lai. Despite the dis- closure of Li's confession,as a party elder he probably will retain his central committee member- ship at the coming art congress. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved or Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A024900090001- 25X1 Approved - 90001-6 EC-SPAIN: The talks last week between the European Communities and Spain over the latter's link with the enlarged EC settled on an objective for a free-trade agreement, but the two sides re- main far apart on the treatment of agricultural products and the timing of the overall arrangement. The EC proposed that trade restrictions on industrial products be ended by 1977 and that im- port restrictions on other products, primarily agricultural, be phased out over a longer period. The Spaniards, however, want the community to step up the pace of freeing agricultural trade while permitting Spain to slow down its tariff re- ductions for industrial products. The two sides will resume negotiations in late September. Despite the wide differences separating the two sides, Madrid seems optimistic that the com- munity will make enough concessions on Spanish ag- ricultural exports to allow Spain to qualify as a free-trade area under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). If the EC preferential arrangements were to encompass most of the trade in industrial and agricultural products, US objec- tions to them on grounds of incompatibility with GATT would be more difficult. to sustain. The discussions with Spain are the first in a series of negotiations beginning this summer in which the EC intends to develop its so-called Mediterranean policy. The first round has also been concluded with Israel, which also finds fault with the community's major offers on agriculture. Talks between the EC and the Maghreb countries are scheduled for later this summer. Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0249000$0001-6 Approved 1or Release - 0001-6 25X1 FRANCE-USSR: During his visit to Moscow on 26-28 July, Foreign Minister Jobert expects to round out the tour d'horizon he began with Gromyko during ,Rra7.hnPTrt G -snmm t meeting in Paris last in particular will discuss the Soviet ra of the "main final document" presented at the CSCE min- isterial in Helsinki and other aspects of Soviet views on European security,. Talks on bilateral issues will focus on scientific and technical co- operation; Jobert will sign a - ear accord t)roviding for such exchanges. 25 Jul 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 Approved For elease 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090 01-6 25X1 Appro a or Release 2003110115 : - 001-6 JAPAN: In response to pressing demands from several countries, Tokyo has decided to increase sharply exports from its surplus rice stock during the year ending next March. The Japanese are send- ing 150,000 tons to South Korea and 100,000 tons to Bangladesh, and the Ministry of Agriculture in Tokyo has announced that another 260,000 tons will go to Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, and the Mala- gasy Republic. Having already committed most of its stock allocated for export, Tokyo will draw on some special food stores that had been set aside for use during 1974-76. IRAN-JORDAN-TUNISIA: Tehran's latest display of support for the Arab moderates includes loans of $5 million each to Jordan and Tunisia. The Shah wants better relations with Husayn and Bourguiba, both leaders of conservative Arab states, in order to extend his influence in the Middle East. Husayn in particular will welcome the loan because he has been under pressure from some Arabs to revise his strong anti-fedayeen position in return for finan- cial assistance. F7 I Central Intelligence Bulletin Appro4ed For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A024900090001-6 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO24900090001-6