CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024900090001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 25, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C
25 July 1973
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25 July 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CHILE: Allende trying to defuse tense political
si'tuation. (Page 1)
CHINA: Last year's disappointing harvest has po-
litical repercussions. (Page 2).
EC-SPAIN: Parties agree on goal of free-trade
pact but'remain far apart on details and timing.
(Page 3)
FRANCE-USSR: Foreign Minister Jobert going to
Moscow for talks. (Page 4)
JAPAN: Rice exports to increase sharply. (Page 5)
IRAN-JORDAN-TUNISIA: Tehran loans show support
for Arab moderates. (Page 5)
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CHILE: President Allende has increased his
effort to defuse the tense political situation, and
speculation in Santiago now centers on the possibility
that the military will again be represented in the
cabinet.
Most businesses and professional guilds r port-
edly have postponed their nationwide strike, but
the ay persist in its
Workers still occupy the in-
J
plan for a walkout.
dustries they seized on 29 June, and the military
and police are continuing their search for illegal
arms. Allende will soon face a congressional in-
quiry into charges that the congressional elections
last March were tainted by massive electoral fraud.
The armed forces remain deeply troubled by the
nation's plight. The feeling is spreading that some-
thing must be done, but most. ranking officers still
appear to believe that it would be better to work
through the present government than to risk trying
to overthrow it.
Allende since last Thursday has been holding
meetings with the three service commanders and with
Popular Unity leaders. He may be groping for a
formula for getting the military back into the cab-
inet that would satisfy both the armed forces and
his own supporters. However, as long as the mili-
tary insists on real power and the Communists and
Socialists remain reluctant to share it, this for-
mula will remain elusive.
Nevertheless, the time could be right for com-
promise. None of the major political forces--the
government and its civilian supporters, the military,
and the civilian opposition---seems confident of pre-
vailing in the current war of nerves or in an armed
confrontation. A political truce may look more and
more like a welcome respite to all sides. The Chris-
tian Democrats, for example, may be ready to agree
to the dialogue sought b Allende if the military
re-enters the cabinet.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHINA: Last year's disappointing harvest has
caused political repercussions in the Chinese leader-
ship.
Vice Premier Li Fu-chun, at one time a leading
economic planner, reportedly apologized late last
year for overestimating Ch:Lnars industrial growth
In the wake of last year's subnormal harvest,
Peking has taken steps to shift more manpower to
agriculture. It imposed a stiff 5-percent ceiling
on the number of workers in the countryside allowed
to do nonfarming work, reportedly instituted a freeze
on the hiring of urban factory workers, and sharply
accelerated the campaign to send city youth to work
in agriculture.
These moves probably resulted from concern over
current harvest prospects rather than from any mis-
calculation by Li Fu-chun. Adverse weather condi-
tions were the primary reason for last year's short-
fall, and no planner can program natural calamities.
Additional manpower will improve harvest prospects
somewhat this year, but ultimately weather is the
single most important factor.
The aging Li Fu-chun has not been active in
recent years. By accepting the blame, however, Li
deflects criticism from others more directly in-
volved in managing the economy and satisfies the
need for a scapegoat. He was replaced as chief
planner last fall by Yu Ch:iu-1i; both have been
close associates of Chou En-lai. Despite the dis-
closure of Li's confession,as a party elder he
probably will retain his central committee member-
ship at the coming art congress.
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EC-SPAIN: The talks last week between the
European Communities and Spain over the latter's
link with the enlarged EC settled on an objective
for a free-trade agreement, but the two sides re-
main far apart on the treatment of agricultural
products and the timing of the overall arrangement.
The EC proposed that trade restrictions on
industrial products be ended by 1977 and that im-
port restrictions on other products, primarily
agricultural, be phased out over a longer period.
The Spaniards, however, want the community to
step up the pace of freeing agricultural trade
while permitting Spain to slow down its tariff re-
ductions for industrial products.
The two sides will resume negotiations in late
September. Despite the wide differences separating
the two sides, Madrid seems optimistic that the com-
munity will make enough concessions on Spanish ag-
ricultural exports to allow Spain to qualify as a
free-trade area under the General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade (GATT). If the EC preferential
arrangements were to encompass most of the trade
in industrial and agricultural products, US objec-
tions to them on grounds of incompatibility with
GATT would be more difficult. to sustain.
The discussions with Spain are the first in
a series of negotiations beginning this summer in
which the EC intends to develop its so-called
Mediterranean policy. The first round has also
been concluded with Israel, which also finds fault
with the community's major offers on agriculture.
Talks between the EC and the Maghreb countries are
scheduled for later this summer.
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FRANCE-USSR: During his visit to Moscow on
26-28 July, Foreign Minister Jobert expects to
round out the tour d'horizon he began with Gromyko
during ,Rra7.hnPTrt G -snmm t meeting in Paris last
in particular will discuss the Soviet ra of the
"main final document" presented at the CSCE min-
isterial in Helsinki and other aspects of Soviet
views on European security,. Talks on bilateral
issues will focus on scientific and technical co-
operation; Jobert will sign a - ear accord
t)roviding for such exchanges.
25 Jul 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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JAPAN: In response to pressing demands from
several countries, Tokyo has decided to increase
sharply exports from its surplus rice stock during
the year ending next March. The Japanese are send-
ing 150,000 tons to South Korea and 100,000 tons to
Bangladesh, and the Ministry of Agriculture in Tokyo
has announced that another 260,000 tons will go to
Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, and the Mala-
gasy Republic. Having already committed most of its
stock allocated for export, Tokyo will draw on some
special food stores that had been set aside for use
during 1974-76.
IRAN-JORDAN-TUNISIA: Tehran's latest display
of support for the Arab moderates includes loans of
$5 million each to Jordan and Tunisia. The Shah
wants better relations with Husayn and Bourguiba,
both leaders of conservative Arab states, in order
to extend his influence in the Middle East. Husayn
in particular will welcome the loan because he has
been under pressure from some Arabs to revise his
strong anti-fedayeen position in return for finan-
cial assistance. F7 I
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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