CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025800010001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 5, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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p0?4eCret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
c 2a I
5 December 1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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JAPAN - ARAB STATES: Tokyo to increase aid to Arab
states. (Page 5)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Heavy attacks by North Vietnamese
units in Quang Duc Province. (Page 6)
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NATO: Discussions on burden-sharing continue.
(Page 8)
DENMARK: Traditional parties take losses in yester-
day's election. (Page 10)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Finance Ministers adopt weak
anti-inflationary plan. (Page 11)
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TRINIDAD and TOBAGO: Prime Minister changes mind,
will not step down. (Page 14)
FOR THE.RECORD: (Page 15)
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JAPAN - ARAB STATES: Tokyo is preparing to
increase is aid to Arab countries as part of its
effort to ensure a steady flow of oil from Arab pro-
ducers. Tokyo recently gave the International Red
Cross a $1-million grant to aid wounded Egyptian
soldiers, and in 1974 it will increase from $1 mil-
lion to $5 million its yearly contribution to the
UN for Palestinian refugee relief. In addition,
Japan will expedite disbursement of loans agreed to
earlier this year--a $30-million project loan to
Syria and a $10-million commodity loan to Egypt.
Tokyo is considering loan requests from Iraq,
Jordan, Libya, Sudan, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia,
as well as a second loan request by Cairo. Saudi
Arabia is seeking further technical assistance.
There are indications that several loans under con-
sideration--such as those to Egypt, Iraq, and Al-
geria--are much larger than the earlier ones to
Egypt and Syria. Japanese Deputy Prime Minister
Miki is being sent to the Middle East to discuss
the Arab requests.
Tokyo also is reportedly willing to help finance
the reopening of the Suez Canal, and may join with
private Japanese lenders in a $500-million credit to
Iraq to finance construction of an oil refinery,
pipelines, and a liquefied petroleum gas plant. In
addition to getting official Japanese aid, the Arab
countries would like to secure sizable amounts of
Japanese private capital and assistance to help in-
r- -I
dustrialize their economies.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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 C SOUTH VIETNAM: Heavy attacks by North Vietnam-
ese units in Quang Duc Province have dealt the South
Vietnamese a severe setback. Communist units have
overrun the Kien Duc District capital and are threat-
ening the provincial capital at Gia Nghia, 12 miles
away. Field reports indicate that the Communists
have, used tanks and artillery effectively to support
their attacks despite heavy government air and artil-
lery strikes.
The loss of Kien :Duc, the first district capi-
tal to be captured by the Communists since the be-
ginning of the cease-fire, will be a severe psycho-
logical blow to South Vietnamese units in the high-
lands. Moreover, if the Communists hold their gains
in Quang Duc, they will have secured the remaining
link in their north-south supply corridor to bases
north and west of Saigon. In addition, they will
have served notice of their readiness to respond
strongly to any further government plans to attack
so-called "liberated areas." Although there are no
indications that the North Vietnamese intend to ex-
tend the current stepped-up fighting to other areas,
additional Communist moves could be triggered by
government retaliatory actions elsewhere or by con-
tinued Communist successes in the highlands. -T
Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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NATO: Several members of the alliance are
prepared to help relieve the balance-of-payments
burden the US incurs from stationing troops in
Europe, but others--particularly the British and
West Germans--continue to maintain a reserved or
negative attitude toward multilateral, burden-sharing
proposals.
The response to US suggestions for reducing the
balance-of-payments deficit has varied:
--Belgium, Canada, Denmark, West Germany, the
Netherlands, and Norway support the idea that
the US share of all or some portions of the
NATO budget be reduced. All NATO states agree
that the question should be studied.
--Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway
favor increased purchases of military equipment
in the US. Turkey will continue to buy large
amounts of US materiel, and the British have
indicated London might make additional purchases.
--Only the Netherlands has expressed willingness
to assume additional budgetary costs resulting
from the stationing of US troops in that coun-
try.
--West Germany and Canada maintain that their
major contributions to burden-sharing are made
through bilateral offset arrangements. The
West Germans, however, have offered less than
half of what the US desires in the offset
agreement.
Other NATO states either are adamantly opposed
to contributing to a multilateral burden-sharing
system or have reservations about doing so. The
British, for example, have stated that they will not
participate in any multilateral NATO budget-relief
schemes because of their own military balance-of-
payments deficit. The Turks, pointing to their large
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purchases from the US, have also refused to par-
ticipate. Luxembourg is still examining the
issue, while France, Greece, Iceland, and Portugal
have made no commitments and apparently are reluc-
tant to contribute at all.
Bonn's attitude toward its bilateral offset
agreement with the US will have a decisive effect
on the other allies. If the West Germans continue
to offer only about $1.4 billion, the other NATO
states will be hard pressed to make up the differ-
ence required by the Jackson-Nunn amendment for a
full offset of costs. If Bonn substantially in-
creases its offer, however, the others will be en-
couraged to make additional contributions.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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CDENMARK: All five traditional Danish parties
sustained whopping losses in yesterday's off-year
election as voters flocked to new parties of the
center and right. The incumbent Social Democrats,
who returned'only 46 of their 70 representatives to
parliament, are expected to resign today. It may
be some time before the ten parties that won seats
are able to sort themselves out and form a new gov-
ernment.
The main spoiler was Mogens Glistrup, whose
year-old, anti-tax Progress Party won 28 seats in
the 179-seat parliament. Another big winner was
the Center Democratic Party, founded last month by
former Social Democrat Erhard Jakobsen, which took
14 seats. Dissatisfaction over high taxes and in-
flation plus the radical trend of Danish socialism
gave these two newcomers broad appeal.
The Christian Party, running on an anti-por-
nography and anti-abortion platform, won seven seats;
the Justice Party, advocating a single tax, captured
five seats. Neither party had been in parliament
before.
The Socialist People's Party, which had cooper-
ated with the minority Social Democratic government
for the past two-years, lost six of its 17 seats.
This leftist loss was offset, however, by the six
seats won by Danish Communists, who will return to
parliament for the first time since 1960.
The three old bourgeois parties--Conservative,
Moderate Liberal, and Radical Liberal--suffered a
combined loss of 30 seats, returning only 58 repre-
sentatives. The election results do not include
the two seats from the Faeroes, which hold elections
next week, and the two seats from Greenland, where
returns are always slow. Although these seats were
crucial to the one-vote majority controlled by the
incumbent Socialist government, they probably will
have little effect on the plethora of parties in
the new parliament. F7 I
5 Dec 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: During a two-day meeting
in Brussels which ended yesterday, EC finance minis-
ters adopted a watered-down version of a Commission
proposal for concerted anti-inflation action. Adop-
tion of the program will permit member countries to
pursue their own policies--as in the past--but with
stronger Community backing. This will be of most
immediate benefit to Paris, which hopes to mitigate
unfavorable public reaction to several anti-inflation
measures it plans to introduce later this week. The
ministers also agreed to postpone a decision on
pooling some of their monetary reserves until at
least next June.
The EC anti-inflation plan outlines a wide
range of suggested monetary and fiscal policy actions,
country monitoring systems for prices and profits,
and increases in import quotas. Although the plan
includes most of the points outlined in the Commis-
sion's original proposal, it merely recommends that
members follow a restrictive monetary policy, take
deflationary tax action "if possible," and curb in-
creases in public spending during the first quarter
of 1974. Paris had requested an EC-wide income pol-
icy, but strong West German resistance resulted in
a compromise whereby member states are requested to
monitor prices and profit margins. The only area
in which the EC probably will take joint action is
through increases in import quotas, but it is not
clear whether the quotas for sensitive goods such
as textiles and processed agricultural commodities
will be increased.
EC members are not likely to take seriously
many of the Commission's recommendations. As the
recessionary effects of Arab oil restrictions become
evident, efforts to maintain employment will take
precedence over anti-inflationary actions.
(continued)
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The decision to postpone action on the issue
of reserve currency pooling reflects strong opposi-
tion to the proposal by the countries which would
contribute the largest share of reserves: Germany,
France, and the Netherlands. As an alternative to
reserve pooling, the EC will seek to increase the
availability of short-term credits to provide greater
support for the European joint float when it comes
under increasing pressure as a result of Arab oil
restrictions. But Bonn, Paris, and The Hague have
indicated that they do not want any sizable increase
in credits at this time.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 12
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 Ap
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: Eric Williams, in an
eleventh-hour reversal, has decided to continue as
Prime Minister and leader of the People's National
Movement until general elections are held.
His change of mind evidently resulted in part
from his intense dislike for former attorney general
Karl Hudson-Phillips, who had emerged as his most
probable successor. In addition, he appeared gen-
uinely concerned that a change in leadership would
generate sharp racial divisions and other conflicts
in the party that might result in its eventual dis-
integration.
Williams' capricious behavior probably has em-
bittered a large segment of the party. Large-scale
defections are unlikely unless Williams takes puni-
tive measures against the Hudson-Phillips faction.
The long-term viability of the party, however, could
be threatened if Williams continues to oppose devel-
opment of a new generation of party leaders.
Differences within the party have aroused little
interest among the population, which is more con-
cerned with the country's serious social and economic
problems. Rising prices and declining public serv-
ices have been aggravated by dislocations in the
petroleum refining industry caused by a cutback in
Arab oil deliveries. The powerful labor unions are
increasingly militant and are agitating for drastic
solutions.
Meanwhile, the trend among opposition parties
toward revitalization and possible coalition may
present Williams' p with a strong challenge in
the next election.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 14
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FOR THE RECORD*
Turke : In a nationwide address on 4 December,
Turkish President Koruturk reported the results of
his contacts with political leaders aimed at the
formation of a government. He revealed that all his
efforts to promote a government based on the elec-
tions on 14 October had failed, and said that the
question of new elections was for the Parliament to
decide. Noting that the military had intervened in
the past only when the country was threatened with
chaos resulting from unjustified political squabbles,
he suggested as a solution to the impasse the forma-
tion of a nat'o al coalition government representing
all parties.
China-Senegal: In late November, China extended
its first economic aid to Senegal, a $48-million
interest-free credit, and signed the first trade
agreement between the two countries. No specific
projects were announced, but further discussions
on projects probably related to agriculture and
water-resources development may be held when Pres-
ident Senghor visits :Peking next spring.
International Monetary Developments: The dol-
lar again strengthened markedly against major Euro-
pean currencies in light trading yesterday in con-
tinuing response to European oil uncertainties. The
guilder was under the most pressure, with the Dutch
central bank intervening in moderate amounts to
keep its currency within the European band. The
price of gold also moved up sharply, closing at
about $106 an ounce in London, more than $5 above
Monday's closing. Gold apparently has joined the
dollar as the preferred alternative of some traders
to the European currencies.
*These items were prepared by CIA without consulta-
tion with the Departments of State and Defense.
5 Dec 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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