CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026000060001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 12, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
Top Secret
rC B
25X1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C 2 `_3
January 12, 1974
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
 Approved For Releas 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6 25X1
January 12, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
EGYPT-ISRAEL: Influential editor of Al.-Ahram de-
nounces what he alleges is Israeli disengagement
proposal. (Page 1.)
SOUTH VIETNAM: President plans quick action to
strengthen constitutional position of the presidency.
(Page 2)
EAST GERMANY: Official asks for closer trade rela-
tions with the US. (Page 4)
VENEZUELA: Government revising policies toward
petroleum resources. (Page 5)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Governments at odds over agri-
cultural policy. (Page 6)
TURKEY: President: gives Parliament choice of re-
so1 nv g political stalemate or facing new elections.
(Page 9)
ARGENTINA: Peron grappling with explosive labor
dispute. (Page 10)
CHINA: Important new appointment made to Politburo
and Military Commission. (Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 13)
25X1
25X1
Approved For R4Iease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A026000060001-q
 25X1
Approved For Relea
EGYPT-ISRAEL: Al-Ahram editor Muhammad Hasanayn
Haykal, in his weekly article yesterday, denounced a
disengagement proposal he claims Israeli Defense
Minister Dayan and Secretary Kissinger agreed on last
weekend. Haykal's position appears deliberately over-
stated, but it probably reflects President Sadat's
fear that any partial agreement on disengagement will
mean the end of progress in the negotiations.
Without criticizing the US, and without specif-
ically rejecting the alleged "proposal," Haykal con-
demned what he called Israel's strategy of negotiating
a "partial solution" that would freeze the situation,
deprive Egypt of the fruits of its military successes,
and divide the Arab world. Haykal's reaction probably
mirrors genuine misgivings among the Egyptian leader-
ship that any disengagement arrangement that does not
provide for further negotiations toward an overall
settlement will constitute the final rather than the
first stage of an Israeli withdrawal. This is a
fear that was expressed during negotiations in 1971
on an interim Suez Canal agreement.
Haykal attributed to Dayan a plan that would
move Israeli forces closer to the Sinai passes east
of the Suez Canal, leave a lightly armed Egyptian
force in a "strip" along the east bank, and place a
UN force between the two sides. He represented the
plan as a definite proposal, although it is in fact
no more than an indefinite guideline at this stage.
Haykal also referred frankly to divisions in
Arab ranks, indicating a fear of criticism that Egypt
would receive from its neighbors if it agreed to a
disengagement without a clear promise of further prog-
ress toward the goal of c e withdrawal by Israel
from the occupied lands.
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Releose 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO260QO060001-6
25X1
25X1
 Approved For ReleaseW3/~21RDP`79'PM5AO26000060001-6
SOUTH VIETNAM: President Thieu plans to move
ahead rapidly this month to secure adoption of some
of the constitutional amendments he desires in order
t residenc .
prior to the Tet holiday on January
e wi present at least two amendments to the
National Assembly. One of these would put off any
election of province chiefs until after the current
presidential term and the other would change the
method of selecting Supreme Court justices.
Thieu is also considering an amendment permit-
t-ina him to run for a third term in 1975, but he is
The President may have been persuaded that now
is a good time to act because any opposition maneu-
vering is likely to be overshadowed by the Tet holi-
day period. He may also fear that if military and
economic conditions deteriorate, his ability to push
the changes through may diminish. However, Thieu
characteristically moves slowly before making final
decisions on such matters, and there could be fur-
ther delays.
Until recently, Thieu reportedly had planned
to wait until late this year to take any action on
the amendments, but he apparently feels he is in a
strong enough position now to go ahead with at least
two of them.
(continued)
Jan 12, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
T23OP SECRET UMBRA
Approved For Release /12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A026000060001-6
25X1
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
 Approved For Rele
EAST GERMANY: Gerhard Beil, the vocal East
German deputy minister for foreign trade, has stated
publicly that the GDR is ready to welcome American
participation in cooperative ventures both at home
and in third countries and is eager to improve its
trade relations with the US.
The possibility of joint ventures represents
an extension of the GDR position on normalization of
trade between the two countries presented by Beil
during his visit to the US in November 1972. At
that time he called for the establishment of diplo-
matic relations along with the reduction of US tar-
iffs and other trade barriers--obstacles which
still exist.
Despite Beil's recent efforts, the US share of
GDR trade with the West--less than three percent--
is unlikely to increase substantially in the near
future. In recent years the GDR has negotiated
with several major US firms, but no sizable con-
tracts have resulted. Moreover, East Germany has
not shown much interest up to this time in joint
ventures, even with its more important West European
trading partners.
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For F2elease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26090060001-6
 Approved For RO
VENEZUELA: The Venezuelan Government is taking
steps to capitalize on the country's petroleum re-
sources during the energy crisis. The Caldera
administration, with the agreement of President-elect
Perez, has announced that all private oil companies
will probably be nationalized before the scheduled
date in 1983. The government has also ordered foreign
oil companies to pay 18 percent of their royalties
to the government in crude oil beginning on April 8.
This would amount to about 100,000 barrels daily
at current production levels. The Venezuelans may
want to sell this crude at preferential prices to
other Latin American countries or offer it on the
world market in trade for needed commodities.
25X1
25X1
Jan 12, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
25X1
Approved For R4Iease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0260000600p1-6
 Approved For Rele
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Community relations, al-
ready strained by isagr ee ments over energy policy
and the regional development fund, will be further
burdened by differences over agricultural policy.
At issue are the desire of the French to increase cer-
tain subsidies and the probable linking of agreement
on farm policy with French support for a compromise
on the regional fund.
Paris has asked for an urgent meeting of EC
agricultural ministers to discuss a French request
to raise community beef prices by 10 percent. Al-
though prices to consumers have not fallen, EC farm-
ers are receiving less for their animals than they
did last summer. Paris wants the community to com-
pensate the producers, many of whom in France are
supporters of the Pompidou government.
Paris is pushing the beef price issue at this
time apparently in an effort to win price increases
before community decisions are made on the EC's over-
all pricing policy for the coming marketing year.
The Council will probably reach a decision on pric-
ing policy by late March.
The EC has agreed to take up the French request
at a Council meeting of agricultural ministers in
Brussels on Monday. The meeting will coincide with
a previously scheduled Council discussion of the
proposed EC regional fund by the foreign ministers.
The West Germans now hope to resolve their dis-
pute with Britain over the community's regional
policy, primarily at French expense. Bonn is in
favor of reducing the overall size of the proposed
EC fund for development of poor regions and of tight-
ening the requirements for recipients. The resulting
allocations would give the British, Irish, and Ital-
ians a far larger share of a smaller fund and would
make France a net contributor.
(continued)
Jan 12, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A046000060001-6
 Approved For Rel
A senior West German official noted that French
opposition could be expected, because France has
previously come out even or has gained financially
by community policies. If the regional dispute re-
mains unresolved, however, action in the agricultural
area will also be stalled, according to the German
official. This would place Paris in an uncomfort-
able position in view of French demands concerning
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For R41ease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T009754 026000060001-6
25X1
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
 Approved For Rel
TURKEY: President Koruturk yesterday gave up
his attempts to designate a prime minister and turned
the task over to parliament, asking it to find a
solution to the political stalemate that has left
Turkey without a government for almost three months.
In a speech to the nation, Koruturk reluctantly
concluded that the recent elections had produced a
parliament apparently incapable of forming a coali-
tion government. He dismissed the possibility of a
minority government, noting that most political par-
ties would not support it, and strongly suggested
that parliament call for new elections and legislate
electoral reform.
Parliament is unlikely to propose immediate new
elections--which only the left-wing Republican peo-
ple's Party favors. The political parties will now
be under pressure to bury their differences and
aaree upon a coalition, but it will be a difficult
Military officers have not commented publicly
on the stalemate, and most indications are that they
would be reluctant to intervene unless the caretaker
government was unable to carry out its functions or
public order broke down. Concern in the military
was rising, however, even before Koruturk made his
speech. The army is divided, not only on the need
for intervention, but on which political faction it
favors.
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Rellease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T009751026000060001-6
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Rel
ARGENTINA: President Peron is grappling with a
potentially explosive labor dispute in the provincial
capital of Cordoba that could test the mettle of his
three-month-old government. The perennially trouble-
some interior city, the country's second largest
industrial center, has become the focal point of con-
flict between Peron's handpicked national trade union
leadership in Buenos Aires and leftist-controlled
union elements in the province.
The immediate issue, a municipal bus strike that
paralyzed the city and led to violence, has been
resolved, but the accord appears tenuous. Enmity
between the opposing labor forces has hardened, and
the left appears headed for a showdown. The left-wing
Peronist guerrilla organization--the Montoneros--is
urging workers to take to the streets in defiance of
the central labor headed by Peron's lieutenants.
The militant statement by the Montoneros appears to
signal an end to their patience with Peron's "right-
ist" policies and a shift toward outright opposition.
While Peron would like to eliminate Marxist and
Trotskyist influence in Cordoba's unions and remove
leftist sympathizers from the provincial government,
he has been afraid that any precipitate action--such
as federal intervention--would cause further conflict
within his disparate movement.
25X1
25X1
IA massive political uprising in Cordoba
in May 1969 was instrumental in toppling General
Ongania's regime, but Peron enjoys wide popular
support and is not likely to be ousted even if there
is more violence in Cordoba. The current crisis
is another setback for his "National Unity" program,
however, and should it worsen, Argentina's efforts
to attract foreign investors, already alarmed by
terror! t-i s ired violence, would be damaged fur-
ther. 31 1
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AP26000060001-6
25X1
 Approved For Rele
CHINA: Former party secretary general Teng
Hsiao-p n~ g has been named to China's ruling Polit-
buro and to the Military Commission, the party or-
ganization that sets military policy. Teng's nomina-
tion was probably put forth last month at the high-
level meetings that, decided on the recent transfer
of m i 1 1 t irv commanders -
The assignment, of Teng, a civilian, to the
party's Military Commission is another in a series
of moves designed to reassert civilian control over.
the military. Most. members of the commission have
been military men, and the few civilians named to
the group in the past either had a military back-
ground or held a military position while on the com-
mission. Teng has not been publicly identified with
a military title, but it is possible that he will
head the military's General Political Department, a
post that has been held by a commander transferred
out of Peking in the recent shift. The head of the
General Political Department is, in effect, the mil-
itary's top political commissar; several civilians
have been named political commissars in recent weeks.
Teng's return to the Politburo, a position he
lost during the Cultural Revolution, is a clear
message to the party that once-disgraced officials
who have been rehabilitated should be returned to
positions of responsibility. The rehabilitation
policy has caused anxiety among younger officials
and military men who gained prominence during the
Cultural Revolution and who view the returning vet-
erans as a threat to their newly won positions.
Their opposition has slowed the rehabilitation ef-
fort and is one reason why Teng, who was rehabili-
tated last April, was not restored to the Politburo
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO260p0060001-6
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Rel
at the party congress last summer. His return to
the Politburo is another setback for the radical
Madame Mao, who reportedly opposed Teng's rehabili-
tation and did not appear with him for nearly two
months after his return.
25X1
25X1
Jan 12 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Rel4ase 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A026100060001-6 25X1
 Approved For Rele4
Middle East: Yesterday was marked by routine
violations on both fronts. Tank and artillery fire
was exchanged in the central and northern portions
of the Suez Canal. Similar incidents have occurred
in the south in the past few days. Radio Damascus
claimed that Syrian units shelled Israeli engineer
units in the central sector of the front and de-
stroyed some of their equipment and artillery.
25X1
25X1
USSR-India: The Soviets yesterday agreed to
supply India with 1 million tons of kerosene and
100,000 tons of diesel fuel during 1974. Delivery
is to begin immediate) with three shipments sched-
uled for this month. I
Japan: Japan's wholesale price index jumped 7
percent in December to a level 29 percent above De-
cember 1972. The energy crisis was the principal
cause of the increase the largest in a single month
since October 1951.
*These items were prepared by CIA without consultation
with the Depar=tments of State and Defense.
Jan 12, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
Approved ForiRelease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02600P060001-6
25X1
 25X1'
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6
Top Secret
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26000060001-6