CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026100120001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 9, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Top Secret
C
February 9, 1974
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February 9, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ENERGY CONFERENCE: Algerian proposal on new mate-
rnal availabilities may come up at the Washington
energy conference. (Page 1)
NORTH VIETNAM: Central Committee plenums provide
guidance on Communist plans and strategy. (Page 2)
CAMBODIA: Government operations south of Phnom
Penh have made limited progress. (Page 9)
LAOS: Return of Pathet Lao negotiator may speed
formation of coalition government. (Page 10)
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS: Some European
governments look to long-term loans to help offset
oil deficits. (Page 12)
ARGENTINA: Peron seeks to give his wife increased
authority. (Page 15)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 17)
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ENERGY CONFERENCE: The Algerian proposal for a
special UN session on raw material availabilities
may come up at the energy conference in Washington
next week.
The EC Nine have been discussing the position
they will take on the issue but are evidently in
disagreement. Substantial portions of the EC Com-
mission's draft communiqu4 for the Washington con-
ference still lack full agreement by the Nine,
including a section on support for a conference
dealing with supply problems of basic raw materials.
France is almost certainly the chief proponent of
this section, which will be the subject of further
debate within the caucus sessions of the Nine in
Washington.
Dutch Foreign Minister Van der Stoel hopes.that
the US will be ready at the preparatory meeting on
February 10 to discuss the relationship between the
proposed UN session and the conference of producers,
industrialized consumers, and developing countries
that the US has proposed. He believes that it ,
would be difficult for the Netherlands to oppose the
Algerian initiative and expects a majority in the UN
to support a special session.
Canada may also want to express views on the
Algerian proposal. External Affairs Minister Sharp
believes that countries rich in resources other than
oil may be getting together in an attempt to control
markets in strategic raw materials and that the
implications of this development should be brought
up at the conference.
Secretary General Waldheim began consultations
on Algeria's request on February 1. He will be re-
quired to convene the session within 15 days after
a majority of members agree to the request. The
members have 30 days in which to register their views.
Indian UN Ambassador Sen commented recently that
the session is bound to present difficulties for al-
most everyone. Sen maintained that he and his Yugo-
slav colleague have been "successfully steam-roll rimed"
by the Algerians and must support the proposal.
Feb 9, 1974
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NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi has apparently held two
Central Committee plenums in the past few months--
the first such meetings since the signing of the
Paris accord. Together they provide guidance for
the party rank and file on Communist plans and
strategy in both North and South Vietnam.
The first of the plenums (the 21st since the
last party congress in 1960) was apparently held
last fall and concentrated on future action in South
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am
provide detailed information
on the resolution that emanated from it. The reso-
lution says:
--At some time in the future the Communists
will again go on the offensive and achieve
final victory in the South.
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--This offensive is a good distance away, and
for now the Communists are to build their
forces, defend their territory, and try to im-
prove their political position.
--It may be years before these efforts bear
fruit; as told to expect
victory in the period 1979-84.
the main mes-
sage of the 21st plenum is that during the next two
years the party will continue to strengthen all
facets of its struggle in the South--its clandestine
infrastructure, its guerrilla and main force mili-
tary units, and also the areas under its control.
During this process, the party will carry out selec-
tive military actions along with "political violence"
in order to weaken Saigon. The implication is that
the time is not favorable for a general or major
countrywide offensive since the "base" for such an
offensive is still being built.
The party's assessment of the situation in the
South is a revealing admission of Communist weak-
nesses. It is admitted that the Viet Cong control
Feb 9, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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few people, have lost access to the bulk of the popu-
lation, cannot find recruits for their guerrilla
units, and are experiencing serious economic prob-
lems.
The party acknowledged that the South Vietnamese
Government has increased its influence in the country-
side, noting that it is stronger than before "from
the central level to the village and hamlet level."
Beyond urging careful doses of increased mili-
tary action, the party provides little specific
guidance. It says that several factors are working
against the government, and that, without the help
of US forces, Saigon's forces will "disintegrate
rapidly" when brought under heavy attack. Moreover,
the party says, economic constraints on the govern-
ment eventually will force it to reduce the size of
its armed forces or face "economic collapse."
The resolution also observes that the Communists
.control vast areas of western South Vietnam and have
free access all along its borders. It points out
that the Viet Cong will be receiving considerable
economic help from the "socialist" and "independent"
countries. It concludes that these assets are impor-
tant in building up strength in the South.
One of the more revealing aspects of.,,this ac-
count is an apparent credibility gap that exists
between lower level Communists and the party leader-
ship. Local Communists are told explicitly that,
despite their confusion and puzzlement, they must
have confidence in their leaders and follow party
guidance.
In contrast to the 21st plenum, of which there
has been no public mention, the 22nd was featured
immediately by the North Vietnamese media. It ap-
parently convened late last month and seems to have
been concerned mainly with the reconstruction of
North Vietnam. According to initial reports, it
laid down ambitious guidelines for a five-year plan
beginning in 1976, and for one-year plans in the
two intervening years.
Feb 9, 1974
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Phnom Penh
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CAMBODIA: Government forces conducting clearing
operations along Phnom Penh's southern defense line
have made limited progress in the past few days.
Units of the Cambodian Army's 2nd Division gained
ground yesterday in their effort to dislodge Khmer
Communist elements located southeast of the capital
between Route 1 and the Bassac River,
Government forces anchoring the western end of
the defense line also reported making headway in sweep
operations in the vicinity of Route 3. Elements of
the nearby lst Division, however, continue to meet
stiff resistance as they try to root out Communist
troops north of the Prek Thnaot River.
The insurgents, meanwhile, are maintaining their
artillery positions south of the Prek Thnaot River,
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LAOS: The Pathet Lao's chief political nego-
tiator, Phoun Sipraseuth, was scheduled to return
to Vientiane yesterday following three weeks of
"consultations" at the Lao Communist headquarters
in Sam Neua. His return could generate additional
momentum toward early formation of the new coali-
tion government.
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Phoun is also expected to submit to Prime Minister
Souvanna the names of Pathet Lao members of the new
coalition and its principal advisory body, the Joint
National Political Council.
Phoun's reappearance follows the significant
progress earlier this week in resolving procedures
for the neutralization of the twin capitals of Vien-
tiane and Luang Prabang. Implementation of those
procedures, including the Joint Police Force's as-
sumption of metropolitan police functions in both
cities, was to begin February 8.
Feb 9, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS: Some Euro-
pean governments are looking toward international
capital markets to offset part of the deficits that
will result from higher oil prices.
--Paris has announced plans for a $1.5-billion
Eurodollar loan, part of the proceeds to be
parceled out to banks to increase their dollar
holdings, the remainder to increase the central
bank?s dollar reserves.
--According to Chancellor of the Exchequer Bar-
ber, London will seek external loans rather than
use competitive devaluation.
--Rome reportedly also is considering a sizable
Eurodollar loan to help pay its increased oil
import bill.
The French decision is the first indication of
sizable long-term government borrowing to finance
balance-of-payments deficits resulting from high oil
prices. The British and Italians have frequently re-
sorted to the Euromoney market for funds in the past.
The capital made available as a result of these loans
will be supplemented as European businesses obtain
new loans from both the Euromoney and New York capi-
tal markets following government decisions last month
to reduce controls on capital movements,
Foreign borrowing by governments is only one of
many alternatives that can be used to finance the
anticipated balance-of-payments deficits. Governments
may also:
--attempt to improve current account balances
by depreciating currencies, directly restricting
imports, or directly inducing exports,-
--use portions of their monetary reserves;
(continued)
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--maintain high domestic interest rates, which,
coupled with relaxed exchange controls, should
induce capital movements into their countries;
--issue special preferential assets directly to
oil producers to attract oil revenues back into
their countries.
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likely, however, that international agreement will
be reached soon. In the interim, governments will
To avoid the ruthless competition that a broad
application of these remedies could produce, some
countries will probably seek an international solu-
tion to the problem. Chancellor of the Exchequer
Barber is in favor of international coordination of
balance-of-payments policies and institutional ar-
rangements to redistribute oil revenues. It is un-
continue to follow independent policies. '
Feb 9, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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ARGENTINA: President Peron is promoting his
wi:Ee as his chief political spokesman and may intend
to use her to purge the Justicialist movement of ex-
treme leftist influences.
A national congress of Peronists opens today to
consider major changes in the political structure of
the movement. The congress was called by Vice Pres-
ident Maria Estela de Peron, presumably at President
Although Mrs. Peron will chair the congress,
she reportedly is receiving all of her instructions
from the President. Since his illness last November,
his wife has frequently acted for him, and this con-
gress may give her the political backing she will
need to dominate the movement. This added authority
will enhance her ability to operate effectively as
president when Peron goes to Madrid later this month,
Peron seems to have given up any hope of placat-
ing leftists, especially radical youth, within his
factionalized movement. In a recent speech peppered
with charges against the so-called "revolutionary
tendency" of Peronist youth, Peron said that the move-
ment could not admit those who seek to impose "for-
eign" ideologies and doctrines, an obvious putdown of
the Marxist bent of the radical youth.
Several youth leaders recently boycotted a meet-
ing with the President, and the complete alienation
of the more militant youth seems assured now that
Peron has all but read them out of the movement. With
his departure for Europe, they can be expected to step
up criticism of the administration. Mrs. Peron has
Feb 9, 1974
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been increasingly identified as an archenemy of left-
wing Peronists who accuse her and several key Peronist
advisers of being. identified with conservative labor
interests and the "reactionary" element of the move-
ment.
Peron's sharp turn against a key sector of his
movement, if formalized at this congress, will se-
verely test the cohesion of his movement and could
drive the more militant members of the left wing
into further conflict with the government.
Feb 9, 1974
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Japan: Former foreign minister Zentaro Kosaka
pledged a total of $70 million in loans during his
recent trip to eight North African and Middle East-
ern countries. The largest loan, $40 million, was
promised Algeria for telecommunications facilities.
Sudan was promised $10 million for highway and con-
struction equipment, plus additional aid. if funds
are available. Other pledges of $10 million went
to Morocco and Jordan. Japan also agreed to join
the IBRD-sponsored aid consultative group for
Tunisia.
Upper Volta: President Lamizana yesterday sus-
pended the constitution, dismissed his cabinet and
the National Assembly, and banned all political ac-
tivity. Lamizana, a military officer who seized
power in 1966, stated he will soon form a new gov-
ernment of civilians and officers.
South Vietnam: The anticipated upsurge of mil-
itary action in the central highlands may have be-
gun. Saigon announced on February 9 that a sharp
clash has broken out 14 miles southwest of Pleiku
City, only a few miles from a site where the govern-
ment is scheduled to return some prisoners to the
Communists next week. According to the government
announcement, Communist troops shelled a government
position and then mounted an infantry attack on it.
Government troops supported by armor reportedly have
killed 54 Communists.
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