CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026300040001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 26, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Pa9
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
March 26, 1974
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March 26, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
YUGOSLAVIA-ITALY: Yugoslavia steps up dispute with
Italy over Trieste. (Page 1)
ETHIOPIA: Loyal troops quell mutiny at air base
south of capital. (Page 2)
FRANCE: Pompidou's cancellation of several official
engagements has reinforced rumors he will soon re-
sign. (Page 4)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Community resolves annual
battle over farm prices. (Page 5)
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Dollar contin-
ued to weaken on major European markets yesterday.
(Page 6)
LAOS: Pathet Lao Chairman sends special representa-
tive to resume talks with Souvanna. (Page 7)
KOREA: Pyongyang attempts to gain diplomatic initi-
ative by proposing direct talks with US on a peace
treaty. (Page 8)
CAMBODIA - NORTH VIETNAM: Khmer Communist delegation
to make official visit to Hanoi. (Page 9)
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WESTERN EUROPE: European Trade Union Confederation
set to accept its first Communist-dominated member.
(Page 13)
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*YUGOSLAVIA-ITALY: Yugoslavia has stepped up
its dispute with Italy over Trieste.
A high-level Yugoslav Foreign Ministry official
said yesterday that Belgrade "would now be forced"
to reopen its claim to Zone A, an area the Italians
have held without challenge since 1954. The offi-
cial also threatened that Yugoslavia might reveal
the contents of secret talks with Italy, a move that
could prove embarrassing to the Italian Government.
Yugoslavia is also making a show of military'
preparedness against the alleged threat of an Ital-
ian invasion of zone B. Over the weekend, Yugoslav
Air Force and Navy commanders inspected the area,
and national television covered the arrival in zone
B of fresh border troops and some tanks.
Belgrade's actions are a flat rejection of
Rome's efforts last week to back away from the fuss
created when it renewed its claim to Zone B, which
the Yugoslavs have administered since 1954.
Tito probably intends no more than a demonstra-
tion of determination, but he may keep the heat on
for some time. It gives him a chance to generate
patriotism that could help obscure domestic problems
during the national election in April and the party
congress in May. Tito would not hesitate to use a
NATO exercise scheduled for the northern Adriatic
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the
analytic interpretation presented here has been produced by the
Central Intelligence Agency without the participation of the Bureau
of Intelligence and Research, Department of State.
Mar 26, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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*ETHIOPIA: Loyal troops yesterday put down a
mutiny by radical air force personnel at the air
base at Debre Zeit south of Addis Ababa.
The airborne battalion stationed at the base,
supported by infantry and armored units, took back
control of the base from rebellious air force en-
listed men and non-commissioned and junior officers,
several of whom were placed under arrest. The air
force rebels apparently hoped that their mutiny
would spark similar action throughout the military.
Addis Ababa, however, is reported calm.; troops are
guarding radio stations and the capital.'s ordnance
depot. The radicals also failed in their attempt to
encourage a mass` demonstration by students and labor
leaders.
The air force rebels form the core. of dissatis-
fied radicals within the ranks of the military dis-
sidents who forced the ouster of the previous gov-
ernment and wrested. major concessions from the Em-
peror. The radicals have split with their moderate
colleagues over the issue of support for Prime Min-
ister Endalkatchew's new government.
The radicals, composed primarily of junior and
non-commissioned officers, are impatient with the
new cabinet's progress in implementing promised
economic and political changes. They feel that con-
tinued agitation is the only way of maintaining the
momentum set in motion by last month's rebellion.
The radicals. are particularly angry over the
government's failure to arrest and initiate judicial
proceedings against members of the former cabinet
for alleged corruption. The Emperor announced in
a radio speech yesterday that a commission to deter-
mine which former or present government officials
are guilty of misconduct will be named by March 28.
This may not satisfy the radicals' desire for imme-
diate action, however. The moderates also want the
former ministers brought to trial, although they
do not support the radicals' call for a military
court martial.
(continued)
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Endalkatchew will not be able to put off legal
action much longer.
e ra ica s are a so is-
sa is ie because they have not received promised
pay raises, and they feel the recently appointed
constitutional reform, committee is composed of too
many conservatives.
Tension between the radicals and moderates is
likely to persist for some time. The moderates still
have the upper hand, as demonstrated by their ability
to suppress quickly the Debre Zeit mutiny. Troops
throughout Ethiopia, however, are sympathetic to many
of the radicals' specific demands, although they may
not support the radicals' call for a change in gov-
ernment. There is also some evidence that the radi-
cals have suppor the top levels of the military -at
in Addis Ababa.
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the
analytic interpretation presented here has been produced by the
Central Intelligence Agency without the participation of the Bureau
of Intelligence and Research, Department of State.
Mar 26, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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FRANCE: President Pompidou's cancellation of
several official engagements has reinforced rumors
that he will soon resign.
Since his return from the Soviet Union in mid-
March, Pompidou has been absent from a number of im-
portant public functions and failed to resume his
normal duties yesterday as predicted. The French
leader has canceled his visit to Japan, which was
scheduled for late April, and may not go to Bonn as
planned early next month.
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Press reports suggested yesterday that Pompidou
may be planning a referendum in May to create a vice-
presidential post and to reduce the presidential term
from seven to five years. Last year Pompidou tried
but failed to win parliamentary approval of the latter
proposal. He will have served five years in June.
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Pompidou is known to be unhappy with the present
constitutional provisions that allow the president
of the senate, Alain Poher, to succeed to the presi-
dency during the election period. When President
de Gaulle resigned, Poher became a candidate and won
enough votes to deny Pompidou a first-round victory.
Although Poher is unlikely to be a serious contender
again, Pompidou would prefer a system that provides
him more control over the succession.
Mar 26, 1974
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EUROPEAN COPM'iMUNITIES: Despite earlier fears that
Britain's new Labor government would challenge the
basic principles of the community's agricultural pol-
icy, the EC resolved its annual battle over farm
prices relatively amicably last week.
The council of agricultural ministers reached a
compromise agreement on March 23 that provided for
substantial increases in support prices and a variety
of subsidies to keep retail food prices down. The
compromise was facilitated by concern that present.
difficulties might threaten the existence of the EC
and by fear of violent reactions from farm organiza-
tions if agreement was not achieved.
Another factor facilitating agreement was the
level of market prices in the EC, which are in many
cases far above EC support prices. Consequently, the
increase in support prices may have no immediate ef-
fect on prices paid for farm products. Where this is
not the case, however, as in the livestock sector,
far-reaching deviations from common EC prices had to
be conceded particularly to the UK but also to other
member-states. These concessions represent fundamental
departures from the already badly compromised common
agricultural policy.
In addition, the council adopted a policy to en-
courage EC production of soybeans--a move that will
have little immediate impact, but one that Washington
has feared might eventually interfere with US exports.
London had earlier warned that it would be unable to
oppose a common policy for soybeans, which Paris had
advocated, because French support was required for EC
concessions of greater domestic importance to the UK.
EC capitals have greeted the outcome of the an-
nual debate over prices with relief and satisfaction.
The government-sponsored French radio commented that
London's conciliatory attitude has restored optimism
regarding the EC's future prospects. A government
spokesman in Bonn claimed the decision represented a
personal success for federal minister Ertl, who had
prepared the ground for this solution.
Mar 26, 1974
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: The dollar
continued to weaken in major European markets yester-
day. Speculation of a mark revaluation--furthered by
rumors that the West German trade surplus had set a
new record last month--and internal pressures among
those currencies remaining in the European joint
float forced the dollar to its lowest level since
early November.
The dollar suffered its greatest losses against
sterling and the Swiss franc--down more than 1 percent
against each. The strengthening of the pound was
aided by British Trade Secretary Peter Shore's comment
that London may announce import controls on Thursday
to reduce the UK's expected record trade deficit this
year.
Expectations of a new record West German trade
surplus of $1.56 billion in February helped rekindle
speculation that the mark may be revalued. The actual
surplus this year is likely to exceed substantially
that currently rumored. Internal pressures on the
remaining joint float currencies further fueled rumors
of a mark revaluation. Substantial Belgian and Ger-
man intervention was required yesterday to maintain
the narrow limits of the currency band.
Despite renewed currency uncertainty, the price
of gold remained relatively stable at $176.75 per
ounce. Recent speculative interest, which had been
sparked by rumors among bullion dealers of a proposed
increase in the value of gold held by central banks,
abated after the US and the International Monetary
Fund issued statements opposing any rise in the offi-
cial price of gold.
Mar 26, 1974
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LAOS: Pathet Lao Chairman Prince Souphanouvong
is send n~ g his plenipotentiary representative, Phoumi
Vongvichit, to Vientiane to resume private discussions
with Prime Minister Souvanna on the formation of a.
new coalition government.
Both Souvanna and chief Pathet Lao political
negotiator Phoun Sipraseuth indicated in press state-
ments over the weekend that Phoumi was returning to
complete arrangements on the membership of the coali-
tion cabinet and its advisory political council.
Phoumi will probably also attempt to resolve with
Souvanna the few procedural difficulties still im-
peding effective neutralization of the twin capitals
of Vientiane and Luang Prabang.
Souvanna believes that Phoumi's visit will facil-
itate a meeting between himself, Souphanouvong, and
the King in Luang Prabang to "consecrate" the new
coalition sometime before the Lao New Year in mid-
April.
The recent decision by the King supporting
Souvanna's opposition to a special session of the
National Assembly--publicly announced by the govern-
ment on March 21--appears to clear the way for the
Prime Minister to form the coalition by direct royal
investiture without prior legislative ratification.
The Pathet Lao also are in favor of such a coalition
Mar 26, 1974
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KOREA: Pyongyang is attempting to put Washington
and Seoul on the diplomatic defensive by proposing
direct negotiations with the US for a peace treaty to
replace the 1953 armistice. The proposal, made by
Foreign Minister Ho Tam on March 24, may be Pyongyang's
response to Seoul's offer of a nonaggression pact in
January. Like the South Korean proposal, it will serve
as a base-line bargaining position in the North-South
talks, which resume at. the vice co-chairmen level on
March 27. Pyongyang's emphasis on talks with the US
points up the low esteem in which the North currently
holds its dialogue with Seoul.
The North Korean offer appears chiefly designed
to pre-empt any US and South Korean proposal for re-
shaping the Military Armistice Commission if the UN
Command is dissolved in the near future. In effects
Pyongyang is asserting its unwillingness to accept any
arrangement for continuing the MAC in the absence of
a peace treaty. While this is clearly an opening posi-
tion for what are certain to be long and complex nego-
tiations, the emphasis on bilateral talks with the US
suggests that Pyongyang is. strongly opposed to any
formula that would lead to an all-Korean armistice
commission, particularly as long as US troops remain
on the peninsula.
In conjunction with this objective, Pyongyang is
again attempting to focus international attention on
the continued US military role in South Korea. Part
of its proposal calls for the US to cease arms rein-
forcement to the South, to remove its troops and
equipment "at the earliest possible date," and to
cease maintaining any bases in the South once the
troops have left.
The North Koreans probably anticipate that their
proposal will not draw a positive response in Washing-
ton or Seoul, if only because of its implication that
the Seoul government is a US puppet and can be made to
respond to American dictates. Nonetheless, the pro-
posal is cast in reasonably flexible language, and
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Pyongyang may calculate that it will aggravate any
existing US - South Korean differences on diplomatic
strategy vis-a-vis the North. The North Korean pro-
posal is also somewhat more forthcoming than some
Pyongyang has offered in the recent past, particularly
in that it does not specifically demand US troop with-
drawal prior to completion of a peace agreement.
CAMBODIA - NORTH VIETNAM: A Khmer Communist
delegation headed by 'deputy premier" and "defense
minister" Khieu Samphan will make an official visit
to North Vietnam in the near future, according to
Radio Hanoi. This will be Samphan's first known trip
outside Cambodia since the war began. The 42-year-
old Samphan has gradually emerged as one of the top
leaders of the Khmer Communist movement.
The announcement of the visit comes at a time
when the insurgents' dry season offensive--particu-
larly in the immediate Phnom Penh area--is falling
well short of the Khmer Communists' expectations.
Consequently, future insurgent strategy and tactics
seem certain to be discussed in Hanoi, as well as the
Khmer Communists' tough attitude toward negotiations.
In addition, Samphan may use the occasion to request
additional military aid from the North Vietnamese.
There has been no indication that Sihanouk will
participate in Samphan's talks with North Vietnamese
leaders. Even though Sihanouk has been to Hanoi twice
this year, he probably would like to take advantage
of a chance to confer with Samphan. The two last met
a year ago during Sihanouk's visit to Khmer Commu-
nist - controlled areas of Cambodia.
Mar 26, 1974
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WESTERN EUROPE: The European Trade Union Con-
federation may accept its first Communist-dominated
member, the Italian General Confederation of Labor,
at its congress in Copenhagen from May 23 to 25.
The move would end more than 25 years of Com-
munist exclusion from regional labor activity in
Western Europe. The admission would also bring a
well-organized and well-disciplined Communist labor
organization into a young, loosely organized confed-
eration that has not yet developed its program and
procedures. This would occur at a time when the Con-
federation is integrating eight formerly Christian
Labor federations and is trying to resolve leader-
ship problems.
In recent years, the Italian confederation has
made itself more acceptable by taking positions of
apparent independence from Soviet direction, includ-
ing somewhat autonomous views on West European mat-
ters. In any case, the action of the Italian Com-
munist-dominated union in pushing for membership
suggests. that it has significant policy and tacti-
cal differences with the big French Communist union
and possibly with the Soviets as well. The admission
of the Italians may contribute to the isolation of
France's Communist-dominated General Confederation
of Labor, both in France itself and in Western Europe.
The leaders of the Italian confederation appear to
have satisfied a growing number within the European
Confederation that they will loosen their ties with
the Communist World Federation of Trade Unions.
Membership for the Italian. Communist confedera-
tion would have a major impact in Italy, where it may
increase momentum toward Communist and non-Communist
labor unity and make the Communist union the princi-
pal spokesman for labor. In addition, it might in-
directly assist the Italian Communist Party in its
efforts to gain support for a wider role in Italian
affairs.
Mar 26, 1974
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