CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026800010048-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2008
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: August 14, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
`NSA review completed
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
14 August 1974
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 14, 1974
CONTENTS
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS: Turkish forces launched a new
offensive on Cyprus this morning; in response, Athens
announced withdrawal from military participation in
NATO. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Military situation. (Page 5)
ARGENTINA: Three cabinet ministers resigned last night;
cabinet shuffle imminent. (Page 8)
ARGENTINA: Military joins police in action against guer-
rillas. (Page 9)
SPAIN-MOROCCO: Talks on Spanish Sahara to continue in
Madrid. (Page 14)
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ITALY
1
BULGARIA
;:NEAT iZFa
Merted+*Ankara
SYRIA
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 14, 1974
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS
Turkish forces on Cyprus launched a new offensive
at dawn, following the breakdown of talks in Geneva
last night. in response, Athens has announced that it
is withdrawing from military participation in NATO.
The Turks launched air strikes this morning, hit-
ting the Nicosia airport and Greek positions south of
the city-the National Guard camps, and the Police Head-
quarters. At the same time, sporadic firing broke out
all along the green line separating the Turkish and
Greek communities in the capital.
Initial reports of ground action indicate that the
Turks are moving toward Chatos where a Turkish Cypriot
enclave has been holding out since the invasion. The
Turkish Cypriots in Chatos are being told
to prepare for a link-up
with advancing Turkish forces. Fighting has also been
reported at the western end of the Kyrenia mountain
range.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 14, 1974
The Greek government announced today that, while
Greece is withdrawing from military participation in
NATO, it is remaining a political member of the Alliance.
The decision to quit the NATO military organization was
apparently made at an early morning emergency meeting
of the country's top political and military leaders a
few hours after the Cyprus peace talks in Geneva col-
lapsed.
Greek Defense Minister and Acting Foreign Minister
Averoff yesterday asked the five permanent members of the
UN Security Council to take the necessary measures to
safeguard peace in the Mediterranean. Averoff declared
that Turkey was not observing the Security Council resolu-
tion of July 22, which had called for a cease-fire and a
withdrawal of foreign troops from Cyprus.
In New York, the UN Security Council held an emer-
gency session early this morning to discuss the breakdown
of the Geneva talks and the renewal of fighting in Cyprus.
British Foreign Secretary Callaghan called for the meet-
ing when the talks in Geneva broke down in the face of
Ankara's intransigence on its basic demand for a fully
autonomous Turkish Cypriot territory comprising approxi-
mately one third of the total area of the island. 25X1
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Military Region 3
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 14, 1974
SOUTH VIETNAM
Military activity may soon increase to the north and
northwest of Saigon as significant fighting wanes on the
other major battlefronts. Main force Communist units in
Military Region 3 have been relatively inactive since
their "spring-summer" campaign ended in early July. Sev-
eral recent developments, however, point to a substantial
increase in activity in the near future.
Such a surge in fighting would probably involve
elements of both the Communist 7th and 9th divisions. The
7th Division would probably carry the main burden of com-
bat by launching attacks in northeastern Binh Duong Prov-
ince and northern Bien Hoa Province. The 9th Division,
while weakened in earlier fighting southwest of Ben Cat,
probably has recovered to the point where it would again
present a viable threat in the sensitive Ben Cat area.
The 5th Division, located in the Parrot?s Beak area of
Cambodia, may launch limited attacks in the Tay Ninh
Province/Cambodian border area to prevent possible gov-
ernment reinforcements to the Binh Duong Province area,
For their part, the South Vietnamese maintain a
formidable force structure in MR 3, including three divi-
sions. They probably would be able to contain Communist
efforts to expand areas of control in the vital Binh Duong
Province area. However, since the government forces are
defensively oriented in areas close to Saigon, their
capability to reinforce outlying areas would be limited.
This could result in the loss of Phuoc Vinh, Dong Xaoi,
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 14, 1974
or other remote! areas if heavy, coordinated main force
attacks were launched against them. This possible renewed
Communist effort in MR 3 would be in line with Communist
plans to increase localized military activity aimed at ex-
panding areas of control in contested areas, undermining
pacification, and tying down Saigon's forces.
There has been no major fighting in the northern
coastal areas of the country for the past few days as
the South Vietnamese continue their efforts to push back
the advances made b the Communists since mid-Jul
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National Intelligence Bulletin
EGYPT-ISRAEL
August 14, 1974
On August 12, a high officer. at the Egyptian Minis-
try of Foreign Affairs, acting on President Sadat's in-
structions, advised Ambassador Eilts in Cairo that
Israeli aircraft have been constantly buzzing Soviet
naval ships conducting mine-clearance operations in the
Strait of Gubal. The official said Sadat has also or-
dered that the matter be brought to the attention of
the UN Emergency Force policing the Egyptian-Israeli
troop disengagement.
The Soviets have repeatedly expressed concern about
alleged Israeli flights, said the Egyptian. The Egyptian
approach to the US was low-key, but the Egyptians clearly
hope that Washington will persuade the Israelis to re-
frain from such harassment if Soviet operations resume in
other areas.
Other minefields laid by the Egyptians during last
year's hostilities are on the Israeli-held part of the
Red Sea. The Egyptians would like these cleared also,
and apparently the Soviets are willing. The Israelis
may not be.
Tel Aviv has been sensitive to the presence of the
Soviet navy in the area. In late July, Israeli fighters
apparently reacted on at least two occasions when Soviet
helicopters involved in the clearance operation allegedly
penetrated Israeli-controlled airspace over the Gulf of
Suez.
The Israelis publicly protested the Soviet incur-
sions, which the Israeli military speculated were made
in an attempt to photograph Israeli missile patrol boats.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ARGENTINA
August 14, 1974
Last night President Peron accepted the resignations
of Interior Minister Llambi, Education Minister Taiana,
and Defense Minister Robledo, according to press reports.
Whomever Mrs. Peron picks to replace them, she will risk
further divisions in the unstable Peronist movement.
Their departures followed a week of political ma-
neuvering in which the illusion of political consensus
began to disappear as members of the opposition Radical
Party and various Peronist factions took swipes at one
another. The Radicals, upset with the growing restless-
ness at the national university, strongly criticized the
indecisive education minister. Leftist Peronist youth
threatened to abandon Mrs. Peron if she did not dump the
interior minister and her close adviser and confidant,
Social Welfare Minister Lopez Rega. Several conserva-
tive Peronists pushed for the dismissal of Economy Min-
ister Gelbard, whose price controls are putting the
squeeze on businesses recently ordered by the government
to grant an extra wage bonus.
The President has recalled several ambassadors to
discuss the possibility of their appointment to cabinet-
level posts. Peronist right-winger Jorge Osinde, who
is returning from his assignment as ambassador to Para-
guay, may get the Interior Ministry or another top se-
curity post. He is widely believed to have been behind
the police rebellion in Cordoba earlier this year that
brought down the leftist provincial government, and his
elevation to any post inside Argentina would be sure to
antagonize leftist Peronists. They will also be unhappy
about the apparent staying on of Lopez Rega, who is
likely to have a major hand in picking the new ministers.
Any cabinet. changes the President makes will dis-
satisfy some of the political groups that have supported
her, and she will have to demonstrate yet-unseen skills
if she'is to hold the Peronist coalition together for
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 14, 1974
Military and police are conducting coordinated coun-
terattacks against guerrillas of the pro-Marxist People's
Revolutionary Army (ERP), following terrorist raids on
two military installations.
The military have generally refrained from involve-
ment in counterguerrilla actions, except to provide logis-
tical and intelligence support to police forces, but the
greater intensity of guerrilla actions and the weakening
of government stability since the death of Juan Peron have
caused increased concern among the military leaders.
There are increasing indications that the nominally
Peronist Montoneros also are preparing for armed resist-
ance against the government. Several recent assassina-
tions have been attributed to the militant wing of that
group, which probably commands more than 1,000 activists.
Since the Montoneros are on the fringe of political ac-
ceptability and have widespread support among Peronist
youth, their guerrilla activity would pose even more
serious problems for security forces than attacks by the
ERP.
The military are aware of ERP and Montonero inten-
tions. Their strong reaction to the recent guerrilla
raids is therefore most likely designed to nip the sus-
pected ERP campaign in the bud and forestall further
uerrilla planning and activity.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 14, 1974
SPAIN-MOROCCO
Moroccan Prime Minister Osman and Foreign Minister
Laraki arrived ir, Madrid Monday to continue bilateral
talks on the roblem of anish Sahara
The visit is a clear signal that both sides want a dia-
logue to defuse the issue. As long as the diplomats can
keep up the appearance of momentum in their discussions
of the problem, the two sides are unlikely to resort to
force.
The issue has been so sensitive in Spain that the
government has severely restricted coverage of the Span-
ish Sahara in the press. No correspondents have been
permitted to visit the area.
The Spanish military is extremely angry about the
ban on press coverage m they feel it is nec-
essary to begin conditioning the Spanish public to the
possibility of military operations in the Spanish Sahara.
The recent deaths of several Spanish soldiers in the
Sahara, reportedly during skirmishes with armed bands,
have been officially ascribed to "accidents while on
maneuvers."
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