CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010012-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 11, 1974
CONTENTS
MOZAMBIQUE: White rebellion dissipated but troubles
remain. (Page 1)
USSR: Jewish emigration to Israel declines. (Page 3)
USSR-PLO: Podgorny endorses some form of Palestinian
state. (Page 4)
BANGLADESH: Arab oil producers contribute over half of
flood assistance received by Dacca. (Page 9)
INDIA: Wheat purchases. (Page 10)
CHILE: First anniversary of junta to be celebrated to-
day. (Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 13)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
MOZAMBIQUE
September 11, 1974
The rebellion by dissident whites that broke out in
Lourenco Marques last Saturday in protest against the
independence agreement signed between Lisbon and the
black Front for the Liberation of Mozambique fell apart
yesterday.
In a final announcement yesterday morning from the
radio station they had been using as a headquarters, the
dissidents agreed to give up to avoid further violence.
During the previous night, sporadic incidents of shooting,
rock throwing, and looting had taken place in the black
suburbs of Lourenco Marques. At least two persons were
killed. Some 30 persons were killed during an army crack-
down on white demonstrators in the port city of Beira on
Monday.
On Monday evening the dissidents in Lourenco Marques
met with two envoys sent to the territory by President
Spinola to hear their grievances. The envoy returned to
Lisbon immediately after the meeting without commenting
on the talks. Although the dissidents may have received
some encouragement that their protests would be consid-
ered by Lisbon, it seems unlikely that they gained any
significant concessions. Lisbon cannot revoke its agree-
ment with the front, and the front is not likely to con-
sider modifying the agreement to allow its political
opponents a place in the transitional government--the
dissidents' basic demand.
Although the immediate crisis has been resolved,
the episode has cast a long shadow on the future of the
territory. The move toward a transitional government is
off to a shaky start. Its unrepresentative nature has
been highly publicized.
There are indications that the bold stand of the
dissidents attracted considerable sympathy throughout
the territory and from a number of small political
organizations. These organizations--made up of whites,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 11, 1974
blacks, and mulattoes--adamantly oppose the agreement
with the front and may be encouraged by Lisbon's inde-
cisiveness to try to get together in another effort to
derail the accord.
It seems unlikely that another such attempt, even
if better planned and better timed, would succeed, but
it could have the effect of plunging Mozambique into
civil war. During the transition to full independence
next June, the front will be incapable of maintaining
internal security by itself. A strong bid by a coalition
drawn from Mozambique's 250,000 whites and mulattoes and
supported by anti-front black civilians and former
soldiers would pose a serious threat to the transitional
government, despite the military backing the interim re-
gime is supposed to get from Lisbon under the recent
agreement.
Front officials announced in Tanzania on Monday that
they will be ready to begin setting up the transitional
government in Lourenco Marques next week. The front will
appoint a prime minister for the territory and two thirds
of the government.
The Mozambique rebellion could spur a similar effort
in Angola, where the white population is larger and known
to be disgruntled. Demonstrations in support of the white
dissidents in Mozambique broke out on Monday in Nova
Lisboa, Angola's second largest city; the capital, Luanda,
apparently has remained quiet.
Racial hostilities are more deeply ingrained in
Angola than in Mozambique and the economic stakes are
greater. Angola's whites might be encouraged to make
their own bid for power before the territory's disorgan-
ized and feuding insurgent groups can unite and negotiate
a front-type agreement with Lisbon. Unlike Mozambique,
however, where the rebels were avowedly seeking partici-
pation with the front, whites in Angola might prefer a
unilateral declaration of independence on the Rhodesian
model.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 11, 1974
Jewish emigration from the USSR to Israel during
the first eight months of 1974 totaled 13,700, a drop of
32 percent from the same period in 1973, when 20,287 re-
ceived permission to leave. According to the Dutch em-
bassy, which represents Israeli interests in Moscow, the
departure rate has remained at about 1,500 monthly since
May of this year.
The Dutch believe that the downturn is not attribut-
able to any increase in the rate of Soviet rejections of
exit applications; as in the past, such refusals are run-
ning about 10 percent of the total applications. They
see the continuing decline as the cumulative effect of
constraints, including the financial hardships experienced
by Jews who make application to leave the USSR and the
uncertainty of conditions in Israel.
Some 145,000 Soviet Jews reportedly have formal
invitations from Israel. Rather than applying immediately
for permission to leave, many are holding open their
options, possibly in the hope that Western efforts to
negotiate a reduction of the costs and risks of emigra-
tion will succeed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
USSR-PLO
September 11, 1974
Soviet President Podgorny has given Moscow's first
authoritative endorsement of some form of Palestinian
state.
In his speech in Bulgaria on September 8, Podgorny
said the Palestinians had a "sovereign right to establish
their own statehood in one form or another." Although
Soviet diplomats privately have urged the Palestinians
to work for an independent state composed of the West
Bank and the Gaza strip, Moscow's usual public formula-
tion has been merely to support the "legitimate, na-
tional rights" of the Palestinians.
Podgorny's formulation is sufficiently vague to cover
either Palestinian participation in a federation with
Jordan or the establishment of a government in exile.
This ambiguity is in line with Moscow's strategy of not
getting out ahead of the Arabs or the Palestine Libera-
tion Organization itself on the issue.
In another gesture toward the Palestinians, one of
Moscow's roving ambassadors met with PLO leader Yasir
Arafat in Beirut on September 7 to talk about the coming
UN General Assembly session. Soviet diplomats have fre-
quently met with the Palestinians, but this is apparently
the first time that one of Moscow's roving representatives
has done so. It is another small step toward formal rec-
ognition of the PLO by the USSR.
In taking these actions at this time, Moscow probably
has one eye on the prospect that the General Assembly may
take more decisive action on the Palestinian issue this
fall. A Soviet official in Moscow recently said that in-
creasing international recognition of the PLO meant that
the fedayeen could obtain additional support for a UN
resolution that goes beyond the UN's previous expressions
of sympathy for the Palestinians.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 11, 1974
Arab oil-producing countries have contributed more
than $20 million, or over half, of the flood assistance
received by Dacca. This is their first substantial aid
to Bangladesh,
Saudi Arabia has provided the largest gift--$10
million--through UN channels. The United Arab Emirates
has given $5 million; Iraq, $3.5 million; Qatar, $1.5
million; Egypt, $25,900; and Kuwait, 300 tons of commod-
ities. Total flood assistance, over $36 million, is less
than 10 percent of total annual aid receipts.
The Arab contributions are indicative of a trend
toward acceptance of Bangladesh by its fellow Muslims in
the Arab world, which has been particularly evident since
Pakistan formally recognized Bangladesh last February.
Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,, and the United Arab Emirates
k
-
have been invited to participate in a World Ban
sponsored consortium of potential donors next month.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 11, 1974
INDIA
New Delhi purchased 700,000 tons of US, Argentine,
and Canadian wheat during the past two weeks, pushing
scheduled grain imports in fiscal year 1975 to 2.8 million
tons--about half of minimum import needs. Faced with tight
grain markets and below-normal monsoon rains, New Delhi
abandoned its ceiling of $150 a ton for foreign wheat.
Deteriorating prospects for food assistance make
further commercial purchases likely. Moscow now appears
unwilling to meet Indian requests for 2 million tons. In
addition, New Delhi's desire for 1 million tons from the
EC is not likely to be fulfilled.
Acting Agriculture Minister Subramanian has dis-
cussed with Ambassador Moynihan a need for 8 million tons
of concessional grain imports from all sources during
the next 18 months. Instead of a resumption in PL-480
shipments, New Delhi wants to obtain US grain on lon -
term credits, barter terms, or through the UN.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 11, 1974
Security forces are on alert against possible left-
ist attempts to disrupt today's celebration commemorating
the overthrow of President Allende one year ago. The "Day
of National Liberation" will be marked by a rally in down-
town Santiago, tributes to soldiers killed in the fighting
t
a
during the coup and its aftermath, and a speech by jun
President Pinochet.
Pinochet probably will review the situation in Chile
prior to the coup, list the military government's accomp-
lishments, and reveal some specifics about future plans.
He is unlikely to deviate from the military's policy of
refusing to set deadlines for the planned major restruc-
turing of the nation's political and economic systems.
Pinochet may use the occasion to announce modifica-
tions of the year-old states of war and siege or to make
a major gesture in the area of human rights. He could
announce what the government has decided to do with the
Allende cabinet officers and leftist party leaders it has
held since the coup.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 11, 1974
Israel: A large-scale Israeli military exercise has
been in progress on the Golan Heights since September 9.
Israeli military authorities say the maneuvers are the
largest to be held in the area since the war last October.
A The Israelis state that
the maneuvers are in ended t test new combat techniques
for operations in rough terrain. UN personnel reportedly
were notified of the maneuvers in advance in order to
avoid alarming Damascus. The Israelis have held a number
of military exercises over the past month or so, including
a nationwide call-up of reservists. They usually hold
maneuvers during August and September, but the exercises
this year have been larger and more extensive than before.
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