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Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Top Secret National 1 retell igen~ce Bulletin State Dept. review completed. Top Secret 25X1 Na 639 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Natic.~nal Intelligence Bulietin September 19, 1.974 CONTENTS TURKEY: Ecevit seeks new coalition. (Page L) OAS: Resolution to reconsider sanctions aga:~rzst Cuba to be discussed today. (Page 3) EC: Heads of government meet. (Page 4) UK: Party manifestos circulated in preparat:Lon far election on October 10. (Page 6) UK: Sugar shortage worsens; likely to be political issue. (Page 8) BOLIVIA-USSR: Banzer seeks renewal of Soviet arms offer. Page 9) EC - ARAB STATES: Negotiations far new preferential trade agreements likely to begin early next ?~ear. (Page 12 ) FOR THE RECORD: (Page .13) Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 N~tlOr'1a~ ~t'1`~e~flC~@IIC~ BI.Jf~E:~lt'1 September 19, 1974 TURKEY. President Koruturk accepted Prime Minister Ecevit's resignation yesterday and has asked him to continue in office until a new government. can be formed. The President has begun consulting with political party heads. Once this process .is completed, Koruturk will, in all likelihood, appoint Ecev:i.t to form another government.? Ecevit's Repub lican People's Party has the largest representation i.n the 450-seat parliament, al- though i.t falls 41 votes short. of a majority. Ecevit has already discussed with the Democratic Party leader the possibility o.f formi:ng a coalition.. Ecevit told U5 Ambassador Macomber that a coalition. with the Democrats was "likely, although not cer.tain." Demo- cratic Party leaders have indicated ghat they favor Ecevi.t's plan for holding early elections, and if they agree to form a coalition, Ecevit would have a narrow majority in the parliament. Ecevit said he would know more about the prospects for a coalition and assemk~ly approval for December elections after Democratic P~~rty leader Bozbeyli had taken a sounding of his party. If Ecevit fails to organize a coalition that would give a majority, the President could ask him to try to lead a minority government, or he could ask ,another political leader to form a government. In a press con- ference yesterday, Ecevit's former coalition partnE~r., National 5alvati.on Party leader Erbakan, said that a rightist coalition composed of his party, the ,Tust~Lce Party, and the Democratic Party was a strong possibility, The. rightist Democrats would be more comfortable ideo- logically with the Justice Party than with the moderately Ecevit, but after the elections last October they refused to join such an alliance unless Demirel stepped down a.s Justice Party .leader. Ecevit told Ambassador Macomber that it might take three to four weeks to form a new government, but as- sured him that this would not inhibit. Turkish policy 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence Bulletin September 19, 1974 regarding Cyprus. He said that even the matter of mak- ing concessions in order to reach a political settlement could be handled during an election campaign. There seems little doubt, however, than Ecevit's leadership on the Cyprus issue will be affected and that, during a campaign, concessions would be harder to make. Even the Greeks have concluded that Cyprus will take a back seat to politics in Turkey now, and the Karamanlis government reportedly is even more eager than before to Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 25X1 National Intelligene~ B~Iletin September l9 ~ 1974 OAS The resolution to reconsider sanctions against Cuba will be discussed today at a meeting of the permanent council_o Practically no opposition to raising the ques~ tion has developed, A debate is likely to ensue concerning the terms of reference drafted by the three ministers sponsor- ing the motion, The resolution offered by Costa Rica, Venezuelan and Colombia evades the :issue of Cuban sub? version? presenting the ease in terms of a?international political circumstances~~" Colombian despite its desire to open diplomatic ~.ines to Cuba,; is not convinced that the Castro regime has terminated its support for revolu-~ tionaries abroad and does not wish to address that prok~- lem? Others fear that Castro will react to any new OAS effort to hold him up to judgment and set back all prog? ress toward normalization of Cuba?s place in the hemis~ pheren Not alT the OAS delegates are :ready to buy this fim nesseo BrazilL? Chi1e~ Uruguay,; and Bolivia have all noted the draftu s failure to raise 'the question of Cuban subversion and will present amendments Their sL.ccess wi"11 depend on what manner of voting is adopte d The original sponsors are likely to try some procedural legerdemain to vote down the amendments ~dhatever terms of reference are finally endc~rsed~ the vote to examine the issue seems assure do A foreign ministers? meeting to take the final tally for ar.d against continuing the sanctions wi.11 robabl be: sched- uled for some time in November 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence Bulletin September 19, 1974 The informal six-hour meeting of EC heads of govern- ment in Paris last Saturday ranged over a number of the major issues preoccupying the Community and restored some momentum after the summer break in activity. The Nine now expect to hold such informal meetings three or four times a year. A prime topic was the need to streamline EC insti- tutions. Tentative agreement seems to have been reached to establish a mobile secretariat for the Nine's polit- ical consultations that would provide sta:Ef support to the country holding the EC presidency. The Italians note that a roving secretariat would lack the continuity furnished by a central permanent base, but the decision is nevertheless important because it brealcs a long im- passe. The French and the other EC members have dis- agreed for same years over whether a secretariat should be located in Paris or Brussels. Discussion of the always controversial common ag- ricultural policy took up considerable time at the Paris meeting, but apparently resulted in no firm decision on either long- or short-term policy. Chancellor Schmidt recommended that unilateral national measures affecting agriculture should be abolished and proposed serious stocktaking of the whole policy. Further exchanges among the Nine on the common agricul ural policy are continuing at a three-day meeting of the EC agricultural ministers that began Tuesday in Brussels. The European Parliament, with an eye to farmer unrest, recommended in a special session on Monday that .the ministers should increase agricultural support prices by 6 percent., a move that would discourage those EC members who are particularly concerned about inflation. _q_ Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 25X6 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence Bulletin September 19, 1974 The perennially difficult French attitude toward EC cooperation was submerged at the Paris meeting, where President Giscard sought the advice of other EC n~.embers on the chances for a successful full-fledged sumtr~it late this year. On Monday, however, at a meeting of E'C fi- nance ministers, French Finance Minister Fourcade. pre- sented sweeping proposals without prior consultation with the Commission, and afterwards briefed the ~~ress exclusively on French views, which he couched in gran- diose terms. This revived memories of the De GaLille era, according to Brussels officials. There is c~eneral recognition that neither the traditional French ~~ttitudes nor other EC problems are subject to quick salut~.ons. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence bulletin September 19, 1974 On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Harold Wilson set the national election date for October 10. At this point, the Labor government is given a slight edge by most public opinion polls, The long-awaited announcement followed publication of the Labor, Conservative, and Liberal party manifestos. Mud-slinging accusations are conspicuously absent from the manifestos. The campaign tone is somber as all three parties focus on Britain's serious economic prob- lems. Labor's domestic program offers few surprises. It calls for redistribution of national wealth and ex- panded state ownership of industry, but offers no pro- posals for tackling inflation beyond the "social con- tract" concept of voluntary wage and pricE: control and the party's presumed ability to secure industrial peace. Pointing out the inherent weakness in a coalition gov- ernment, the Labor Party stresses the need for strong, decisive policies to cope with the nation's economic ills. Wilson continues to rule out participation in a coalition government. The Tory manifesto leaves the coalition question open and, in an appeal for national unity, pledges con- sultation with other part leaders if a Conservative government is formed. Conservatives promise increased pen- sion benefits, government assistance in training union officers, and greater recognition of strikers' rights, The Tory anti-inflation program includes control of the money supply, as urged by shadow Home Secretary Sir Keith Joseph, as well as restraint in public spending and in wage and price demands. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 i i I~latianal Intelligence bulletin September la, 1974 tion of such social programs as the redistribution of national wealth, a review of electoral processes, and Campaigning on a note of realism, the Liberals have agreed to consider joining in a coalition government. Their economic program admits that the government will need to reinstitute unpopular mandatory wage and price controls to curb inflation. But Liberals urge the adop- introduction of power-sharing in industry before statu- tory wade and price controls are applied. 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence bulletin September 19, 1974 A severe shortage of s~a~gar has led to panic hoard- ing and voluntary rationing of available stocks by deal- erso Tight supplies worldwide and a bad sugar beet crop at home have aggravated British sugar problems, but Brit- ish entry into the EC, which requa~red that preferential. agreements with Commonwealth countries be ;phased out, accounts for much of the shortage? Prior to entering the FaC, the UK relied on a Common- wealth Sugar Agreement, which provided fixed import quotas at guaranteed prices, to meet two thirds of domestic con- sumptions The developing countries of the Commonwealth provided 1.4 mil-lion tons annually, while Australia and South Africa shipped another. 300,000 tons under the quota system. Since EC policy provides subsidies to EC sugar pro- ducers and limits sugar imports, Britain is obliged to phase out its import quotas by the end of ?this year, With only flimsy- assurances of long-term EC contracts after this year, Britain's traditional suppliers have been diverting their sugar to wox?ld markets, where it commands prices up to four times higher than the guar- anteed British prices The possibility that the US will suspend its import quotas before the end of 1974 has heightened British worries of further diversions of Commonwealth sugar, A poor sugar beet harvest at home will cast the UK an additional 200,000 tons of sugar this year, boosting the total shortfall in supplies to almost 20 percent of annual consumption. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence Bt.~lletin September 19 ? 1974 fixed prices with Australia. This move is to be d~~- cussed at the special meeting of EC actricultural mir~is- London is considering signing a long-term contract pct The British are prepared to challenge the EC agree- ments and re-establish traditional trade agreements, if necessary, to get enough sugar to satisfy British needs. ters now under way in Brussels. BOLIVIA-USSR Bolivian President Banzer, apparently disappointed by the US response to his requests for military equ~_pment, is looking with greater es at a Soviet arms o~?fer made earlier this e ar. Banzer might use a Soviet offer as additional pressure on ':he U5. However, one f actor that may prompt Moscow to aCt cautiously in approving an arms sale to Bolivia is a:h.e effect such a move might have on Peru, Spurred by the mounting tension between neighboring Chile and Peru, and the arms buildup by those c~oun.tries, La Paz has been seeking to upgrade its ground force inven- tories. Bolivia's ground forces equipment presently con- sists of 10 US M3A1 tanks received from Venezuela earlier this vPar_. 53 armored vehiclesn and 24 75-mm. howitzers. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Q Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence Bulletin September 19 , 1974 During EC Commissioner Cheysson's visit to Cairo early this month., the Egyptians asked for a general cooperation agreement that would go well beyond the lim- ited preferential trade agreement now in force. Egypt wants to be included in the EC's Mediterranean policy and to negotiate a preferential agreement along the lines of the arrangements the EC is working on with the Maghreb, Malta, Spain, and Israel. Cheysson noted Egypt"s strong interest in industrial cooperation with Europe. He believes that some mechanism will be needed to provide for an exchange of information in this field and for effective consultation between the EC and Egypt. Otherwise, overproduction and market flood- ing in particular products might well lead to political backlash and protectionismo Cheysson wants to have negotiations with the Maghreb, Malta, Spain, and Israel well in hand before beginning formal talks with Egypt and with Syria, Jordan, and .Leba- non as well. He believes this condition will be met soon, and that serious negotiations can begin in early 1975. The negotiations would be keyed toward preferential econ- omic arrangements like the other agreements under the Mediterranean policy, rather than formal association agree- ments such as those with Greece and Turkey. Negotiations far market access to tYie EC by Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon will receive a boost from the EC-Arab dialogue, which is intended to provide a broad framework for relations between Western Europe and the Arab states. In the case of the major A~:ab oil producers, this multilateral effort may be overshadowed by indepen- dent jockeying for long-term oil supplies and for recycled petrodollars. The next official step in the dialogue is a meeting of representatives of the EC and Arab League presidencies with EC Commission and Arab League secretar? iat officials in Cairo in mid-October to prepare for a broader general committee meeting in November, which the nine EC countries and many of the 20 members of Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 National Intelligence bulletin September 19, 1974 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 I I the Arab League would attend. To create a favorable atmosphere for continuation of the dialogue, French Foreign Minister Sauvagnargues has invited the foreign ministers of the Nine and their Arab counterparts 'to a social luncheon in New York on September 25 in honor of new UN Assembly President Bouteflika. 25X1 25X1 China: Peking is preparing to join major iriterna- tiona civil aviation organizations within the nE:xt few months. For some time, China has been upgrading ground navigation equipment at major airports to meet Ixiterna- tional Civil Aviation Organization standards. The Boeing 707s recently acquired by China are equipped with instru- mentation specified by ICAO. Additional equipment has been purchased for the Tridents already in the C~iinese inventory. China also may join the Internationa:L Air Transport Association, a commercial organization pr- marily concerned with rate setting for intex?natieanal air services. In both cases, the withdrawal of `Paiwan from these orcanizations will facilitate China's member- ship. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7