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December 20, 2016
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May 1, 2007
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October 11, 1974
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Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 To S cr t25X as National 1 ntel l igence Bulletin ~~I. 1"e'~ti'~ti IY~:Irr~ltl:~~ Top Secret 25X1 N?_ 639 Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release National I ntel I igence Bul leti n October 11? 1974 CONTENTS UK: Labor appears to be winning a narrow majorityr ~P age 1) ETHIOPIA: More prominent figures of the previous regime arresteda (Page 5) VIETNAM: PRG endorses Hanoi~s hard line on Thieud (Page 10 ) SOUTH KOREA: Street demonstrations have become a major affront to the Pak government? (Page 11) WEST GERMANY - UK - ITALY: MRCA engine problems apparently more serious than earlier reported (Page 13) ITALY: Fanfani surrogate explores renewal of center left coalitionv (Page 14) FOR THE RECORD: (Page 18) 25x1 Approved Far Release 2 0975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T0 National Intelligence Bulletin October 11, 1974 Harold GVilson and Britain's Labor Party appear headed for a narrow majority, enabling them to continue in government following yesterday's national elections. With counting completed in more than three-fourths of the 635 parliamentary districts, the Labor Party has captured 292 seats, 26 short of a majority. The Conserv- atives have won 184 seats so far, and the Liberals 5. There are no early reports from either Scotland, where the Nationalists were expected to increase their representation, or from Northern Ireland. Welsh nation- alists reportedly are not doing well. Some 71 percent of the nation's 40 million voters went to the polls yesterday in contrast to nearly 79 percent in February. Early predictions gave Labor a majority fluctuating between 5 and 62 seats before elec- tion workers stopped counting last night. Counting will resume this morning in the 146 dis- tricts still undecided. Edward Heath, leader of the Conservatives, declined to concede last night and said it might be necessary to '1 all the votes were counted this afternoon, 25xi Approved For Release 2prD7m5~rt~ ~ riA-R nP7gTnng~5A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2007i05J01:CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2007J05J01:CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 20 - 0975A027000010042-5 National Intelligence Bulletin October 11, .1974 ETHIOPIA The Armed Forces: Coordinating Comma.ttee announced on Wednesday the arrest of 21 prominent figures of the previous regime. Those detained include former high civilian officials and two senior military officers. Some 170 officials identified with. the old regime were already under detention before these latest arrests. The committee has avoided widespread arrests of its opponents among middle-level and junior officers and enlisted men, the ranks that have provided the basic support for the revolution. A 1st Division officer arrested Wednesday is tli.e only person among this group detained since th.e arrest of several members of the enaineerina and aviation battalions on Monday. The committee apparently hopes to have subdued its military opponents by the show of force and by public warnings that it will not tolerate opposition. The var- ious opponents, although. divided among themselves, never- theless have the potential for making trouble. Unrest continues to simmer in university circles. On Monday the police in Harar, a provincial capital in eastern Ethiopia, arrested 20 students and administrators who had seized control of an agricultural college after forcing the ouster of its president. The next day the police arrested 200 more students and administrators who t e release of their collea uesa Approved Far Release 2 ~ - 00975A027000010042-5 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Next 3 Page{s} In Document Denied Approved Far Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release - National Intelligence Bulletin 00975A027000010042-5 ?25x1 October 11 m 19'74 The Viet Cong's Provisional Revolutionary Government issued a statement on October 8 calling fo:r the overthrow of President Thieu as a necessary step toward the imple- mentation of the Paris agreement. This line first appeared last August in authoritative articles in North Vietnam's party and army newspapers and was quickly picked up by th.e Viet Cong's Liberation Radio. An editorial in N~ian 'Dan on October 9 officially endorsing the hardened Commun~ i position on Thieu is another sign of Hanoi's disenchantment with the prospects for major political gains through. negotiations as long as Thieu remains in power. The timing of the statement was clearly designed to exploit continuing antigovernment demonstrations in the South. The statement hailed the current political agita- tion as proof of the public's demand for Thieu's removal and for the formation of an "administration willing to implement the Parris agreement." Hanoi's position an Thieu contrasts with its earlier line that the Thieu government would be replaced in due course by the political process established in the Paris agreement. Hanoi's decision to abandon this position followed President Ford's address to Congress in August affirming his intention to maintain US support for Saigon, More recently, the Communists have reacted sharply to Deputy Secretary Clements? statement about the pos- sibility of US mi:Litary reintervention~ citing it as an- other indication that the US is not pre aced to lessen significantly its support for Saigon. 2 Approved For Release 00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 00975A027000010042-5 25X1. [~~tit3r~~l ~t~~ellig~~nce S~al~~tin Street demonstrations in Seoul during the past two days have become a major affront to the Pak government. The protests have included a large Catholic demon- stration and marches at Seaul University and a number of other schools. Riot police have clashed with the pro- testers, but there have been few serious injuries so far. The demonstrations were sparked by -the leader of the ma- ~or opposition party, Kim Yong-sam, who threatened in a speech on Monday to lead a struggle in the streets if basic democratic reforms were nat carried out. President Pak quickly rebuked Kim, warning publicly that he would take firm action against any attempt to cause trouble. The protests came immediately after P~xk'~ warning.. The demonstrators are emphasizing two long-standing demands: release of people imprisoned under the emer - gency decrees earlier this year; and reform of the con- stitution, which gives Pak unlimited power. The assassination attempt in August set aff a harsh anti-Japanese campaign that diverted attention from South Korea's serious domestic tensions, In the imme- diate aftermath of that event, Pak dropped two of four emergency decrees and talked some about taking other conciliatory steps, Recently, however, Pak and his enemies--consisting of a small but significant part of the educated urban elite--have hardened their views and squared off again. The basic issue is Pak's authori- tarian rule, which he argues is necessary as long as the confrontation with the North continues. One new element in the situation is the planned visit of President Ford to Seoul in November. This, together with recent criticism of Pak in the US, may have encouraged Pak's enemies to make protests that would have carried grave risks earlier this year. Pak has tried to disabuse the apposition of the notion that it can get away with more now, stressing that the US has made no demands that he moderate his policies, and adding that he will take firm measures to maintain order. Approved Far Release 2 07105/01 :CIA-R?P79T 0975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2 975A027000010042-5 Nat~c.~at~al Intelti?~~r-~=Ice Bull~~in October 11, 1974 The government expects the demonstrations to peak during the next few days. Based on past performance, security forces should be able to contain the rotest,s but there is danger of heavy violence. 25x1 Approved Far Release 2 07105/01 :CIA-R?P79T 0975A027000010042-5 Approved For Releas National Intelligence Bulletin October 11, 1974 WEST GERMANY - UK - ITALY The engine problems that have. continued to trouble the European Multirale Combat Aircraft may be more severe than had been previously reported. After a test flight last month, West German air force officers told the US defense attache~in Bann that the MRCA?s RB-199 engines 'n onl 75 ercent of their ex ected thrust. The MRCA has been troubled with developmental prob- lems, cost overruns, and severe public criticism almost from the beginning of the program. The most serious problem encountered with the engine is that of pressure imbalances in the turbine, apparently stemming from a basic design error. Those in charge of the program presumably were con- cerned that public awareness of the seriousness of the MRCA's engine problems might jeopardize continued ex- penditures by the countries involved in its development-- the UK, West Germany, and Italy. Therefore they apparently resolved that test flights could be delayed no loncrer 25x1 25x1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2 - 975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2 - 00975A027000010042-5 - 25x1 National intelligence Bulletin October 11, 1974 Italian Senate President Spagnolli is expected to report back to President Leone within a few days on the prospects of reconstructing the center-left coalition. The Senate official does not have a mandate to form a government; he is merely serving as advance man for Leone's first choice for prime minister, Christian Democratic party boss Amintore Fanfani. Spagnolli will be meeting with the four feuding coalition parties in the. next few days to assess Fanfani's chances of working out the differences that led to the government's resigna- tion a week ago. President Leone reportedly was reluctant to author- ize such an exploratory mission. He wanted Fanfani to follow the usual procedure by immediately taking personal charge of the interparty talkse The President's con- cession is a victory for Fanfani--.Italy's most ex- perienced and controversial politician. Fanfani does not want to bear the blame if the center-left coalition cannot be re-formed at this time. If Fanfani accepts the assignment, his reluctant stance may be helpful in his efforts to revive the co- alition. All of the parties apparently declared in his favor during Leone's consultationsm By playing hard to get, Fanfani apparently hopes to use their preference for him to force the parties to reveal the issues on which they are willing to compromise; they have shown practically no flexibility in their public statements so far. The effects of the stalemate on the economy began to emerge this week when caretaker Labor Minister Bertoldi--a Socialist--failed to mediate a dispute in Turin between organized labor and Fiat, the country?s largest private employer. A subsequent general strike in Turin was marked by violence, while the unions im- plied that Fiat officials had rejected Bertoldi's pro- posals because they did not want to enhance Socialist prestige during the government crisis. Approved For Release 2 - Approved For Release - 0975A027000010042-5 25x1 National Intelligence Bulletin October 11? 1974 The caretaker government will find it increasingly difficult to deal with labor?s demands, because the unions want substantially the same changes in the aus- terity program that the Socialist Warty d m d'n as a condition for rejoining the coalition. 25x1 Approved Far Release - 975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Next Page{s} In Document Denied Approved Far Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release ~ National Intelligence Bl.~lletin October 11, 1974 Ecuador: President Rodriguez has ousted his ultra nations ist minister of natural resources and replaced him with a moderate. The new appointee,.navy Captain Luis Salazar Landeta, is expected to follow a more prag- matic approach toward foreign oil companies and potential foreign investors. While Ecuador's overall nationalis- tic stance is likely to continue, Salazar probably will pursue petroleum policies that are less heavy-handed and more in line with the attitudes of Rodriguez and the con- servative elements of the government. The new minister is not well known, but he has the trust and confidence of the President whom he served as s c` 1 military adviser. USSR: For the first time in three years, Soviet Jews, ce~ebxating the holiday of Simchath Torah on October 8, were allo~red to sing and dance in the street in front of Moscow's main synagogue. The-new policy was apparently part of an effort by th.e 5ov` 1 ship to polish up its image in the West. Approved For Release ~007J05J01:CIA-RDP7~T00975A027000010042-5 Approved For Release 2007/05101 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5 Top Secret Top Secret Approved Far Release 2007105!01:CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5