CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027100010006-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: April 19, 2000
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1974
CONTENTS
CANADA: Canada plans to reduce its defense program.
P age 1)
EUROPEAN COMMUNISM: Moscow tolerated diversity of
opinions at Warsaw meeting. (Page 3)
JAPAN: Tanaka`s critics in the Liberal Democratic
Party see little hope of changing the party leader-
ship. (Page 5)
CYPRUS: Prisoner releases resume and Turkish over-
flights continue. (Page 6)
EC: The EC Commission proposes new sugar policy.
(Page 7)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 8)
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
CANADA
Canada's plans to reduce further its already minimal
defense program have surfaced during the past week in
parliament and the press. Ottawa's commitments to NATO,
however, appear fairly safe for the short run.
Canada's double-digit inflation has pushed defense
costs well beyond the 7-percent increase called for in the
five-year defense plan adopted last October. Declining
economic growth has added to the problem by reducing tax
revenues. The planned capital improvements program for
the armed forces has been maintained only by cutting
personnel from an authorized strength of almost 84,000
to just under 80,000. Further reductions are now seen
as inevitable, with the result that some of Ottawa's pres-
ent defense commitments must be reduced.
A special cabinet committee studying the defense
budget has identified four basic defense commitments--
protection of sovereignty, participation in NATO, par-
ticipation with the US in defense of North America, and
support of UN peacekeeping operations. It has outlined
options for cabinet decision ranging from maintaining
the status quo to a cutback to 75,000 men. Defense
officials see no chance of maintaining the status quo
but hope to be able to hold personnel strength at about
77,000.
The reduced level of personnel will require reduc-
tions in Ottawa's defense commitments. Officials hope
to maintain support of NATO, go along with matching any
small US cuts in North American defense and close some
bases and consolidate commands at home. The peacekeep-
ing function is most likely to bear the brunt of any
reductions. Defense Minister Richardson intimated this
when he told parliament on Friday that doubling Canadian
personnel on Cyprus this summer was a "temporary commit-
ment." A cabinet decision on specific defense reductions
is expected October 31.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
There are no influential spokesmen for the defense
effort in Canada. Most members of parliament and the
public see no military threat to Canada and believe that
in a showdown with the Soviets, the US would have to de-
fend Canada too. Prime Minister Trudeau has never as-
signed defense a high priority, but he is seeking closer
ties with Western Europe and will be reluctant to irri-
tate Europeans and lose an effective voice at the North
Atlantic Council through a substantial reduction in
Canada's NATO commitment.
If economic pressures on Canada's budget continue
over the longer term, it is doubtless only a matter of
time before an erosion of Canada's commitments to North
American defense and NATO also take place.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
EUROPEAN COMMUNISM
Moscow tolerated considerable diversity of opinions
at last week's Warsaw meeting of European Communist
parties,in order to promote movement toward a formal
European party conference next year.
The Warsaw participants expressed in their communi-
que the "desire" that such a conference be held in East
Germany before the middle of next year. The conference
is to be preceded by at least one additional preparatory
meeting, in December 1974 or January 1975.
Several parties--particularly the Italian, Romanian,
and Yugoslav--strongly reiterated their independence of
Moscow at the Warsaw meeting by opposing any institu-
tionalization of the Communist movement and the estab-
lishment of a center of Communist authority. They also
stressed the equality of all the parties and the right
of each to voice its position and have its views taken
into account at any regional conference.
The Yugoslav delegate did not commit Belgrade
o participate in the regional conference next year,
making plain that its attendance there would be contin-
gent on Moscow's continued good behavior.
The chief Soviet delegate, Politburo candidate-
member Ponomarev, omitted the China issue from his
speech, and Peking was not criticized at all at the
meeting. Moscow avoided forcing the issue in response
to the insistence by several key parties that the con-
sultative meeting confine itself to regional issues and
that absent. parties--i.e., the Chinese--not be attacked.
The Soviets apparently rate the meeting a success,
if only because they were able to gain the participation
of all the European parties except those of Albania,
Iceland, and the Netherlands. Moscow apparently will
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
be satisfied if a European Communist conference endorses
detente and formulates a program that seeks to take ad-
vantage of economic disarray in the West.
The Soviets continue to nurture the hope that
regional meetings will culminate in a world Communist
conference. The Warsaw meeting, however, did not spear
to bring that objective any closer to fruition.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1974
Prime Minister Tanaka's critics in the Liberal Dem-
ocratic Party have privately conceded the futility of
their efforts to force an early change in the party
leadership.
Late last month, former finance minister Fukuda--
the only serious contender for the top job--said that
Tanaka's money and power made him virtually unchallenge-
able in any party confrontation. Fukuda has, therefore,
pinned his fading succession hopes on a national crisis
of confidence over the economy that might put pressure
on the ruling party to seek new leadership.
Fukuda's pessimism is based, in part, on his fail-
ure to forge a viable anti-Tanaka alliance with former
deputy prime minister Miki. Substantial policy differ-
ences have fueled the long-standing animosity between
these two party leaders, and Miki had earlier confided
that he was bitter because Fukuda had tried to use the
partnership to further his own ambitions.
The disarray in Fukuda's faction, one of the major
subgroups of the ruling party, has also contributed to
Fukuda's discouragement. His followers are already
divided over the lengths to which Fukuda should go to
promote his own interests at the expense of party unity.
Fukuda fears that the Prime Minister will success-
fully nurture these seeds of dissension by offering
portfolios to Fukuda faction members in the cabinet
shuffle slated for late autumn.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
CYPRUS
On October 18, 396 Turkish Cypriots and 317 Greek
Cypriots of the approximately 3,000 prisoners yet to be
exchanged were repatriated. This is the first release
of prisoners since late last month, when Turkey objected
to an agreement reached by acting Cypriot President
Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash on further
exchanges. Additional transfers took place on Saturday,
resume today, and will continue through the week. Cler-
ides earlier forecast that they will be completed by
early November has been speeded up.
Meanwhile, Turkish overflights of Cyprus continued
during the weekend. Turkish officials on Cyprus told a
representative of the UN Peace Keeping Force on Cyprus
that the flights are reconnaissance missions in response
to reports that Greek Cypriots are receiving reinforce-
ments and equipment. Any strengthening of Greek Cypriot
positions noted by the Turks could be the result of tap-
ping previously unused caches on the island or of shift-
ing equipment and personnel to meet local requirements.
Clerides has confided to the US embassy in Nicosia
that should the Turkish overflights continue, the National
Guard may feel constrained to fire on the aircraft in or-
der to maintain their credibility in the Greek Cypriot
community. Such action could bring Turkish retaliation.
Although a renewal of major hostilities would be unlikely,
prisoner exchanges would probably again be delayed, and
the Clerides-Denktash negotiations would receive a set-
back.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
The EC Commission has completed work on a new sugar
policy to be submitted to the agricultural ministers'
meeting, which opens on October 21. The proposal in-
cludes provision of subsidies for British sugar imports
through mid-1975, as well as a new common sugar policy
scheduled to begin next July.
The ministers are likely to approve subsidies for
Britain, thus providing a temporary solution to the is-
sue of British sugar--import policy. Skyrocketing world
sugar prices caused a breakdown of Britain's traditional
import arrangements with Commonwealth countries, which
expire at the end of this year. This, coupled with a
poor sugar beet harvest at home, would reduce British
sugar supplies by at least 300,000 tons annually. To
meet their requirements, the British have been consider-
ing signing a long-term agreement with Australia. Such
an agreement would violate EC policy, which precludes
bilateral arrangements.
The proposed subsidies would tide Britain over its
current shortage, providing consumers with sugar at well
below world prices. EC Commission experts calculate
that the subsidies will cost between $40 and $50 million,
but the total could run higher because estimates of the
British sugar harvest have been scaled back in recent
weeks.
The Commission is proposing a system of price sup-
ports and production quotas that would leave the EC
roughly self-sufficient in sugar if production targets
are met. Full production is not expected, however, and
the EC is likely to import sugar next year.
Allocation of the quotas has sharply divided the
members. The UK, Ireland, and Denmark want larger
quotas, while the French and Belgians argue that they
are the more efficient sugar producers. The British
are particularly insistent that they be allowed either
to produce or to import more sugar in order to keen
their refining capacity employed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1974
Japan: Japanese leftists plan to stage mass rallies
throughout the country today against President Ford's
pending visit and port calls by US navy ships allegedly
carrying nuclear weapons. Short-term sympathy strikes
may interrupt public transDortation and communications.
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