CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027100010018-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 21, 2007
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: October 29, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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To ~ Secret
c_
l~lational 1 ntell igence
Bulletin
Top Secret
N? 646
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 Approved For Release
1~I;atiQnal In#ell~gence ~3ulletin
Octobex' 29 , 19 74
CONTENTS
ARAB STATES: PLO endorsed as sole authority over Pal-
estinians on West Bank. (Page 1)
]3ANGLADESHs Lef tist finance minister resigns at Mujibur
Rahm~n's bbidding. (Page 3)
CHINA - NORTH VIETNAM: Annual trade and aid agreement
signed. Page 4
EC: Energy policy. (P~ge 6)
-~--
SOUTH AFRICA - MOZAMBIQUE: Pretoria to initiate talks
with new trans~tion~l government. (Page 10)
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I'~lati?nal lntel9ig~ence bulletin October ~~, 1~~4
ARAB S7.'ATES
After three days of closed deliberations, the Arab
heads of state, meeting in Rabat, M.ave endorsed the .Pales-
tine Liberation Organization (PLO} as the sole authority
over the Palestinians on the Israeli-occupied West Bank
and granted the PLO a greater role in negotiating the
return of the area.
The official announcement of the summit decis-ion
did not specify that the PLO would have .sole respoinsi-
bility for negotiations. It called instead on Egypt,
Syria, Jordan, and the PLO to coordinate on a formula
for future Arab negotiating strategy.
Jordan's acceptance of the decision is being hailed
as a victory for Arab unity, but the decision is a flat
repudiation of King Husayn`s arguments that-only Jordan
can negotiate with Israel and that ultimate disposition
of the West Bank should be determined by a plebiscite.
The outcome of the Arab summit eliminates any pros-
pects for early negotiations over the West Bank with the
Israelis., who will have nothing to do with the PLO.. In-
deed, now that they have granted. the PLO ?.ts maximum de-
mands, it is unclear how the Arabs hope to proceed dur-
ing the next phase of negotiations. Amini-summit re-
portedly will be held in Algiers shortly after the Rabat
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NatiOtla! int+elligenCe Btalletin October 29, 1974
conference adjourns today. Some decision may then be
made on whether to press for a reconvening of the Geneva
forum or whether perhaps to pursue first some further
military disengagement in the Sinai or possibly in the
Golan Heights area.
One press account has suggested that Jordan may seek
an accommodation with Israel which would ignore the PLO
claims, but Husayn so far has not '
m latin unilateral action.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 29, 1974
Prime Minister Mujibur Rahman asked for and has re-
ceived the resignation of leftist finance minister
Tajuddin Ahmed, the main advocate of socialism in the
cabinet and a. staunch friend of the Soviet Union and
India.
Tajuddin's ouster last Saturday may well be a sig-~
nal to military officers, potentially Mujib's most pow-
erful challengers, that the Prime P~inister can act de-
cisively, even at the possible cost of support from
longtime Awami League stalwarts.
Tajuddin, leader of .the ruling Awami League's left
wing, had long opposed a pragmatic approach to economic
problems and frequently attacked government policies
publicly. Recently he expressed dissatisfaction with
Mujib's purported plans to amend the constitution to
allow a more centralized and possibly authoritarian
presidential system of government--a change the mili-
tary officers apparently favor.
One possible reason for removing Tajuddin may have
been his opposition to the assistance program that a
consortium of Western aid donors is developing for
Bangladesh. Mujib could well have concluded that
Tajuddin's continued presence in the cabinet would have
made the aid negotiations unnecessarily difficult.
Other cabinet changes designed to bring pragmatic
and capable technocrats--po --i o
the overnment ma follow.
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National Intelligence bulletin
October 29, 1974
Peking and Hanoi on October 26 signed annual agree-
ments regarding Chinese military and economic grant aid
to Hanoi and bilateral trade for 1975. As in past years,
no details were announced.
An editorial in the North Vietnamese party newspaper
said the aid would be used for reconstruction in North
Vietnam and for continuation of the struggle in South
Vietnam. Chinese statements put more emphasis on the
need to shore up Hanoi's economy, with little mention
of the military situation in South Vietnam.
The North Vietnamese delegation that negotiated and
signed the agreement in Peking is embarked on Hanoi's
yearly aid-seeking swing through China, the USSR, and
Eastern Europe. Chinese treatment of the delegation
seemed routine in most repects. The North Vietnamese were
received warmly but not effusively, and they held talks
with senior Chinese military and economic leaders, in-
cluding a conversation with Premier Chau En-lai in a
Peking hospital. The head of Hanoi's mission, economic
expert and Politburo member Le Thanh Nghi, also met twice
with Cambodian exile leader Prince Sihanouk.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 29, 1974
The EC Commission has given qualified endorsement
to eight of its nine members who are preparing to join
several other nations in an emergency oil-sharing gro-
gram. The Commission warned the eight, however, that
they may not participate in the plan if it blocks their
sharing of oil with France.
The ruling, which had been requested by one of the
member states, supports the Commission's long--standing
pleas for a common EC energy policy. It also may pro-
vide a mechanism by which France might participate in-
directly in the international plan, which Paris has boy-
cotted since its inception last February at the Washing-
ton energy conference.
Commission Vice President Simonet, at a news con-
ference announcing the Commission`s decision, cited pos-
sible conflicts between the oil-sharing program and EC
treaty provisions on free circulation of goods. Simonet
said these obstacles could be bypassed by a formal com-
mitment from the eight to share oil with France. The
oil-sharing program would not restrict its members from
sharing oil with nonmember states, but it does require
members to establish certain stock levels and to impose
automatically consumption curbs in the face of an oil
shortage.
Consumption restrictions that Paris has imposed
recently and French ail stock levels already exceed
those demanded by the program. France could become a
de facto partner in the plan if the EC agreed to share
oil as part of a common energy policy. Simonet said the
EC could join the international program on its own right
and be considered as an entity for purposes of oil-shar-
ing with other members of the program.
France could also be brought more formally into
the fold if the EC were to become a full member of the
program. Simonet pointed out that precedents exist for
EC membership in organizations to which not all member
states belong individually.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 29, 1974
k'ormal acceptance of the program is due today .and
all of the original p~.rticipants except Norway--the eight
EC states, Canada, Japan,. and the US--have either accepted
or are expected to do so. The Norwegian government will
seek associate status and pledge solidarity with the con-
sumer states, but it feels that it faces too many domes-
tic pressures to obtain legislative approval for full
membership.
Several other states, i~ncludinc~ Sweden, Switzerland,
Australia, and New Z~alaYid, ark due to announce their
intentions about joining the group early next week. The
program will officially come into force on November 18
if the OECD Council accepts a draft decision establish-
ing the program and creating an international ener
a enc to im lement the lan.
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IVatiortai Int+elligen+ce Bulletin ?ctober 29 , 1974
S?UTH AFRICA - MCZAMBIC?UE
Pretoria is taking the initiative to establish work-
ing relations with the new black-dominated transitional
government in Mozambique. South African Prime Minister
Vorster's senior security adviser, who often undertakes
diplomatic missions for Vorster, is scheduled to go to
Loureneo Marques sometime this week for talks with Mozam-
bique's Prime Minister Chissano.
The visit will mark the first high-level contact
between Pretoria and the transitional. overnment since
the latter was established last m~nth_
The South Africans have been encouraged by the
moderate stance the Front has taken toward South Africa,
despite its past revolutionary talk against white rule in
southern Africa. The Vorster government has publicly
expressed willingness to coexist with any black govern-
ment that will maintain constructive relations, and it
believes that the Mozambican government will want to
retain the economic benefits of cooperation with South
Africa.
In 1973, Mozambique received about $200 million from
rail, port, and tourist earnings from South Africa and
Rhodesia and from the repatriated wages of some 100,000
Mozambican blacks working in South Africa's mines.
South African investment in Mozambique is also substan-
tial, and has gone largely to the Cabora Basso project,
which will begin to roduce electricit far South Africa
sometime next ear.
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Top Secret
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