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Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Top Secret National 1 nt~el l igenoe Bulletin State Dept. review completed Top Secret N?_ 654 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National Intelligence Bulletin November 22, 1974 CONTENTS MBFR: Bonn and The Hague may propose changes in the West's negotiating position. (Page 2) U5SR-US: Soviet media play up significance of Vladi- vostok summit. (Page 4) INTERNATIONAL COPPER: CIPEC announces 10-percent export cutback. Page 6 ALGERIA-IRAN: First step toward gas cartel. (Page 8) GREECE: New government formed entirely from Karamanlis' own party. (Page 10) FRANCE: Government and labor in standoff. (Page 11) ZAIRE-PORTUGAL: Soares to visit Zaire, reportedly to discuss the decolonization of Angola. (Page 13) FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14) ANNEX: Communists Plan for Heavy Military Action in South Vietnam (Page 15) Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Q Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National Intelligence bulletin MBFR November 22, 1974 Nearly all the major West European participants now seem to agree that the West should at least reconsider the substance and tactics of its bargaining position in the Vienna force reduction talks. The West Germans and the Dutch are the latest to discuss changing the Western negotiating position. The basic objective of the West is to obtain an agreement that would establish an overall balance be- tween NATO and Warsaw Pact ground forces in Central Europe. The West has proposed that a "common ceiling" of about 700,000 men be imposed on ground forces, The NATO allies have argued that reductions should be made in two phases, and that only the U5 and the USSR should participate in a first phase. Tactically, the allies have concentrated their efforts on obtaining acceptance of this phased approach. The USSR and its allies have consistently rejected the common-ceiling concept because ,they would have to reduce more than the NATO allies, They have also. stressed that all participants must take part in each phase of the reduction process. The two sides have been unable to reconcile these differing views, and the talks in Vienna remain deadlocked. The Soviet side apparently is not disturbed by the impasse and seems content to play a waiting game. Sev- eral of the West :European states, however, are under domestic pressure to reduce their armed forces. They hope to be able t~o do so in the context of a force re- duction agreement, and are growing increasingly anxious that one be concl~udecl. A West German Foreign Office official has privately told a US official that Bonn is considering various ways to include West European forces in a single phase of reductionso His :imprecision in describing the details of one of these alternatives suggests the West Germans Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National Intelligence Bulletin November 22, 1974 are still formu~.ating their views. The West German said Chancellor Schmidt might want to discuss the alternatives when he visits Washington on December 4 and 5. A Dutch diplomat acknowledged last week that his government is already considering suggestions for chang- ing Western tactics. He added that some officials in The Hague are wondering whether the emphasis placed by the West on the two-phase approach has not become a "sacred cow." The Dutch have made clear that they wish to reduce their forces soon. With the exception of the Belgians, who have raised the issue in various Western capitals as well as in Vienna, none of the West Europeans has formally suggested revision of the NATO approach. The growing dissatisfac- tion with the present stand suggests, however, that for- mal proposals may be made in the near future, probabl after the Vienna talks recess in mid-December. Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National I ntell igence Bulletin November 2 2 , 19 7 4 The Soviets are stressing the significance of the .Vladivostok summit talks beginning tomorrow. They are expressing optimism that. the talks will strengthen US- USSR relations an.d~, give a fresh impetus to international detente? Moscow has. stayed away from speculation on possible specific agreements`, but has reported President Ford's stated hope that- the summit will permit further progress on strategic-arms limitationsm On Wednesday,:Pxavda reported President Ford's sup- port of the trade bill now before the US Congress,. and Literatur~na~ra Gaze!ta quoted officials of the Republican anc~Democratic national committees; as well as other Americans, who have welcomed improved US-Soviet rela- tions and prospects for increased trade.. The previous day, Deputy Foreign Trade-Minister Manzhulo warned in Pravda of the possible consequences should the US fail to grant the USSR most-favored-nation statuse He ob- served that "rehaxat-ion and discrimination are difficult things to make comp;atib le . " A Radio Moscow-commentary in .English beamed to North America on Wednesday emphasized the Soviet people?s "deep and authentic" interest in the summits Echoing leadership statements, Soviet media acknowledge that the more "in- fluential ruling groups" in the US support detente, but the media continue. to ascribe dark designs to "sti11- powerful reactionary forces." The Soviets :have reacted to recent charges that the U5SR is violating-.the 1972 SALT accords, In an unusually explicit rebuttal last week, Deputy Defense Minister Tolubko, commander of the strategic rocket forces, denied any Soviet wrong-doing. He described the charges as fab- rications by enemies of detente. The Soviets have noted the Pentagon's denial that either the USSR or the US is violating the int~~r~im agreement, Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National Intelligence Bulletin November 22, 1974 In recent weeks Soviet propaganda has been critical of the U5 role in the Middle East, in part to reassure the Arabs of continued Soviet support on the eve of the summit, and in part to show that Moscow still thinks the US has not been sufficiently sensitive to Soviet inter- ests in the area. A commentary in Izvestia on Wednesday was highly critical of the Sinai and Golan disengagement agreements and asserted that Israeli "warmongering" is being facili- tated by an "uninterrupted flow of modern weapons from across the ocean." Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National Intelligence .Bulletin November 22, 1974 INTERNATIONAL COPPER The announcement by the Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries of a 10-percent cutback in copper exports by member nations is the first step taken by this group to raise prices. [~lorld copper prices have slid over the past seven months from $1.52 a pound to about 65 cents. Although the council--Chile, Zambia, Zaire, and Peru--did not announce a price goal, 80 cents a pound was mentioned by its director prior to this week's meet- ing in Paris. Chile has already announced a six-month shutdown of one mine as a step toward meeting its com- mitment. One council member says the 10-percent cutback will be increased if prices do not respond. A 10-percent cut, if maintained, would reduce sales by about 230,000 tons over the next 12 months. Produc- tion in the first 11 months of this year was about 300,000 tons greater than demand, and stocks and inventories have been rebuilt since a heavy demand for copper depleted stocks in 1973. The addition of an estimated 260,000 tons of new mining capacity in non-council countries will have a further depressing effect on prices next year. The four council countries may be reluctant to make further cutbacks in the face of rising production by other copper producers and slackened world demand. Barring further cutbacks, a sustained rise in copper prices is unlikely. 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 . 25X1 National Intelligence Bulletin November 22, 1974 ALGERIA-IRAN Algiers and Tehran have taken the-first step toward organizing gas-exporting countries under OPEC auspices. During meetings early this month in Algiers, Iranian and Algerian experts worked over the fine points of a high- level agreement reached earlier on coordinated action in the marketing of natural gas. If they act together, the two countries will be a strong force in negotiating gas prices since they control the major share of Middle East reserves. Iranian gas reserves may be the largest in the world. Both Tehran and Algiers apparently want to bring other gas producers into the scheme. At the end of the recent meeting, their delegates raised the idea of bring- ing the matter up at an early OPEC meeting. In that forum, they probably would get support from current or prospective gas exporters such as Libya, Indonesia, and Nigeria. The Shah probably will be the strongest backer of a gas exporters' cartel. He is counting on gas revenues to help finance Iran's ambitious development programs. The Shah has lorng been critical of the disparity between gas and oil prices, and he will use this argument in urging other countries to work collectively for higher gas prices. Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/21 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8 National ~Inte('ligenc~e bulletin GREECE November 22, 1974 The new Greer; government formed yesterday by Prime Minister Karamanl~.s is made up of older technicians and veteran politicians--most are over 60--drawn only from his New Democracy Party. Holdovers from the previous cabinet include Foreign Minister Bitsios, a career diplomat who replaced George P~.avros in that post only recently, and Minister of De- fense Averoff and Minister of Public t~rder Gikas, both of whom have good relations with the military. The key economic ministries are held either by technicians or by politicians without previous ministerial experience, sug- gesting that Kararanlis will take the lead in this area. It is a cabinet unlikely to challenge Karamanlis' author- ity or send off ma_xed signals, as was the case when Mavros was foreign minister. The opposition parties that Karamanlis defeated so handily are blaming each other for their poor showing. The Communist United Left and Mavros' Center Union - New Forces claim that Andreas Papandreou's new Panhellenic Socialist Movement was a divisive force that drew votes from their constii~uency on the left. Papandreou's party, which received 13 percent of the vote, has accused the left and Center Union of contributing to New Democracy's victory by giving Karamanlis moral support. The.'US embas:~y believes that Papandreou's reckless rhetoric during the final week of the campaign drove undecided middle class vaters seeking a calmer political atmosphere into the Karamanlis camp.. It views the poor showing by Papandreou as an indication of Greek unwilling- ness to accept hi:~ program for a socialist, nonaligned Greece, outlined