NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010014-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: November 25, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 25, 1974
CONTENTS
CANADA-US: Ottawa plans to reduce crude oil exports to
US over next eight years. (Page 1)
ETHIOPIA: Military council hopes executions will end
challenges to its authority. (Page 2)
JORDAN: New government part of reorganization aimed at
reducing Palestinian influence. (Page 4)
ARGENTINA: Drive by security forces against leftist
guerrilla organizations appears to be gaining momentum.
(Page 5)
BRAZIL-AFRICA-PORTUGAL: Brazil seeks to develop leader-
ship role in worldwide Portuguese-speaking community.
(Page 6)
ROMANIA: Party congress opens today. (Page 7)
ITALY: New government formed by Aldo Moro. (Page 9)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 25, 1974
Canada has announced plans to reduce crude oil ex-
ports to the US gradually over the next eight years.
Energy Minister Donald MacDonald has told the House of
Commons that exports will be cut from the current level
of about 1 million barrels a day to 800,000 b/d by Jan-
uary 1, 1975, and to 650,000 b/d next July if the main
oil-producing provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, agree.
The proposed cut in deliveries to the US, planned
for over a year, is tied to the government's plan to
pipe oil from western to eastern Canada. This plan is
contingent, however, on the construction of a pipeline
from Sarnia, Ontario, to Montreal. Scheduled for com-
pletion in 1976, it will have an initial capacity of
250,000 b/d. Meanwhile, eastern Canada continues to
meet nearly all of its oil requirements from imports,
mainly from Venezuela and the Middle East.
MacDonald said that if the producing provinces
raise strong objections, which is likely, the level of
800,000 b/d will be maintained through 1975. In any
case, this should not affect the long-term plan of
phasing out exports by the early 1980s, when domestic
supplies of crude oil are expected to fall below domes-
tic demand.
The proposal to cut back production ahead of time
reflects the National Energy Board's report that Canada's
dwindling oil reserves are insufficient to supply rising
domestic demand and continued high exports. MacDonald
rejected a demand for an immediate halt to oil exports
because of the potential harmful effects such a move
would have on Canadian-US relations.
The immediate impact on US crude oil supplies from
the proposed cutback should be small. In recent months,
US refineries have been importing far less than what
Canada allows because of the high price of Canadian crude
oil. US crude oil imports from Canada in September were
only about 725,000 b/d.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ETHIOPIA
November 25, 1974
The ruling military council executed General Aman
and 59 detained military officers and former officials in
hopes of finally ending all challenges to its authority.
The most prominent of those executed were senior
military officers and former civilian officials, includ-
ing many aristocrats and former cabinet ministers, accused
of corruption and maladministration during the reign of
Haile Selassie. Those killed also included officers who
supported the initial military revolt last February but
who had since been arrested for opposing specific poli-
cies of the council. The decision to carry out the ex-
ecutions apparently.had broad support within the council
and did not represent a grab for power by radicals who
have favored this action for some time.
The council believed it had to act to forestall
further attempts by Aman to assert his authority. Two of
Aman's supporters on the council were among those exe-
cuted. The council, in its statement on November 23 an-
nouncing Aman's removal as head of tI'e provisional mili-
tary government, accused him of attempting to assume
dictatorial power. The council's differences with Aman
came to a head last week over Aman's refusal to approve
its decision to send military reinforcements to begin
an offensive against.insurgents in Eritrea Province.
The council apparently believed that the swift ex-
ecutions would cower Aman's supporters within the mili-
tary. The executions, however, will probably increase
dissension and rancor within the military. Aman had
strong support within some units, especially the Third
Division in eastern Ethiopia.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 25, 1974
The council's peremptory action against Aman, as
well as its failure to consult other units regarding the
execution of the other officials, will add to the increas-
ing criticism that it is losing touch with the rest of
the military.
The council has announced that it will name a new
head of government from outside the council. It hopes
to find another senior military officer or a well-known
civilian to act as a figurehead, but it Will have diffi-
culty finding anyone to accept the post.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 25, 1974
King Husayn appointed a new government on Saturday
as part of a continuing reorganization effort aimed at
reducing West Bank Palestinian influence in Jordan. He
also dissolved parliament and accepted the resignations
of several top personal advisers.
The King reappointed Zaid Rifai, his long-time friend
and confidant, as prime minister. Rifai will also con-
tinue to hold the posts of foreign minister and defense
minister.
The retention of Rifai is sure to displease Easy,
Bank conservatives, particularly in the army, who had
hoped to see him removed. :Rifai and army Chief of Staff
Bin Shakir have become symbols of government corruption
and neglect of East Bank interests. But apart from the
continued prominence of the controversial Rifai, the
new cabinet should be well received by most of the
King's East Bank supporters. Although roughly half of
the 20-man cabinet consists of holdovers from the
previous cabinet, Palestinian representation has been
reduced from ten to four.
The US embassy in Amman believes the new cabinet
probably represents the minimum gesture required to.
fulfill Husayn's pledge to make domestic changes fol-
lowing the Rabat summit meeting.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ARGENTINA
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November 25, 1974
The drive by Argentine security forces to try to
stamp out leftist guerrilla organizations appears to be
gaining momentum.
Press reports suggest that police, using broad search
and arrest powers under the current state of siege, are
having success in a nationwide campaign to immobilize
the clandestine terrorist groups. Evidence is fragmentary,
but improved cooperation between the army and police
probably is a major reason the counterterrorist program
has gotten off to a good start.
The capture in Cordoba last week of a large number
of extremists working for the People's Revolutionary Army
and the retrieval of arms caches there and elsewhere
could deal a setback to the subversive cause, but the
tide has probably not turned yet. The terrorists have
withstood such reversals in the past and have resumed
the offensive with a vengeance.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 25, 1974
Foreign Minister Silveira of Brazil will leave this
week for Senegal and Portugal in his country's latest
bid to deepen its African ties, while retaining its close
relationship with Lisbon.
Silveira's stop in Dakar, billed publicly as an op-
portunity to discuss prospects for increased trade, will
spotlight Brasilia's interest in black Africa. Members
of the foreign minister's party may fan out to other
countries to meet with leaders from Angola and the former
colonies of Portugal.
This portion of the trip is part of an overall effort
to secure for Brazil an influential role in Portuguese-
speaking Africa as well as elsewhere in the continent.
If the effort is successful, Brazil will have achieved
increased prestige not only in Africa but throughout the
Third World.
In Portugal, Silveira's presence could serve a two-
fold purpose: to signal a desire to improve relations
with Lisbon, where recent political developments have made
Brazil's conservative regime wary, and to point up the
usefulness of a Brazilian role as "go-between" with
Portuguese-speaking Africa.
In the final analysis, Silveira seeks to develop a
leadership role for his country in the Portuguese-speaking
community, which spans three continents. This is a goal
that Brazil has sought for some time. 25X1
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 25, 1974
Romania's 11th Communist Party Congress, which opens
today, will endorse Bucharest's maverick style of commu-
nism as enduring national policy.
The congress will be President Ceausescu's show
from start to finish. The Bucharest city party organ-
ization has even called for his election as party sec-
retary general for life. Delegates will approve the new
party program that emphasizes a link between Romanian
national interests and party policies and adapts Marxism-
Leninism to Romanian conditions. Adoption of the pro-
gram may ultimately lay Bucharest open to Soviet charges
of "revisionism" on several counts.
The Soviets, for the moment at least, appear rather
relaxed about that prospect. Party secretary Katushev
was in Romania recently, presumably in part to take a
first-hand reading on congress preparations. The Soviet
delegation to the congress is led by Politburo member
Kirilenko, Brezhnev's unofficial deputy--an indication
of both a relaxed posture and the Soviets' commitment
to at least the appearance of normal interparty rela-
tions, despite Buchare't's aberrations. Kirilenko at-
tended the Yugoslav party congress earlier this year.
In an effort to strengthen its identity with the
so-called progressive forces, Bucharest has also sent
invitations to a wide array of Third World countries,
national front movements, and West European leftist
organizations and parties.
The congress will probably introduce new faces at
all levels of the party command, and by the time the
congress is over, one third of the members of all party
bodies--including the Central Committee--will probably
be newcomers to their posts. This is Ceausescu's way
of breaking up regional fiefdoms, injecting new blood
into the party, and attempting to stimulate renewed in-
terest in party activity among the rank and file. The
recent Cominformist affair in Yugoslavia has probably
increased his desire to ensure a loyal following.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 25, 1974
Bucharest is determined that everything go well
during the five-.day congress. Security in the city and
around Romanian installations abroad has been tightened
in order to prevent any incident that might embarrass
the regime.
The public, while generally responsive to Bucharest's
recent trumpeting of Romanian interests, remains skepti-
cal. The man on the street, resigned to tight internal
security and a continuation of rather Spartan living con-
ditions, is less. than enthusiastic about the congress,
the party ro ram, and--to some extent--Ceausescu him-
self.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 25, 1974
A new government headed by Aldo Moro was sworn in
on Saturday by President Leone.
The government, which intends to go before parlia-
ment for the required vote of confidence on December 2,
is a two-party coalition in which Moro's Christian Demo-
crats have been joined by the small Republican Party.
The two other center-left parties--the Socialists and
the Social Democrats--have agreed to provide the coali-
tion with a parliamentary majority.
The Republicans have been given five offices, in-
cluding that of deputy prime minister, to be occupied
by Republican Party chief Ugo la Malf a. The Christian
Democrats will have the remaining 20 positions. Out-
going Prime Minister Mariano Rumor will take over Moro's
post at the Foreign Ministry; Arnaldo Forlani, a conser-
vative Christian Democrat, will be at defense; and Emilio
Colombo will stay on at treasury. 25X1
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