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December 20, 2016
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May 11, 2006
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November 29, 1974
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Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Top Secret Hit wool M- =1 National Intelligence Bulletin Top Secret N2 654 State Dept. review completed Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release 007/03/28 : CIA-RDP7 T00975A027200010020-7 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 CONTENTS ETHIOPIA: Situation report. (Page 1) SOUTH VIETNAM: Recent reports support COSVN instructions which called for intensified fighting. (Page 3) EC: Foreign ministers fail to reach agreement on issues to be discussed at the summit next month. (Page 4) FRANCE: Mediterranean fleet to be enlarged when Suez Canal reopens. (Page 8) NORTH VIETNAM - FRANCE: North Vietnamese delegation in Paris to discuss French aid. (Page 9) CAMBODIA-UN: Sihanouk's allies still could attempt to upset Phnom Penh's victory at the UN. (Page 10) FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12) Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release 2 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 The ruling military council yesterday elected Gen- eral Teferi Benti as its new chairman. Teferi, who was the commander of the Second Division in Eritrea Province, will act only as a figurehead. He became Second Division commander in October and does not have a broad base of support within the division or within the armed forces as a whole. He also lacks the public prestige and popularity of General Aman, the former head of government, and he is expected to approve automatically the council's decisions. The 52-year-old Teferi had previously served as head of the Harar Military Academy and was once military attache` in Washington. He has attended several military training courses in the US. Major Mengistu Hailemariam, the council's first vice chairman, will continue to exercise influence behind the scenes, but he is not believed to have firm control of the council, and his current leadership position is not accepted by the entire military. There is increasing evidence that the authority of the ruling council and the unity of the armed forces will be severely tested as a result of the killing of General Aman and the mass executions last weekend. Op- position to the council because of its authoritarian rule is widespread, but its opponents are dispersed throughout the military and seem to lack leadership, or- ganization, and a clear sense of purpose. The council is proceeding with plans to send rein- forcements to fight the Eritrean Liberation Front, and some units reportedly have already arrived in the prov- ince. The insurgents have refrained from large-scale 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010020-7 Approved For Release J007/03/28 : CIA-RDP7960975AO27200010020-7 25X1 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 attacks for several months, but they have been able to gain control of large parts of the countryside as a re- sult of government troop inactivity. They have wanted to see how Ethiopia's revolution developed before taking any major new initiatives, and insurgent leaders may be- lieve the situation is still too uncertain to allow the formulation of new plans. Local military commanders who are not firmly controlled by the political leadership, however, could decide to act before the army increases its own operations. An Ethiopian Foreign Ministry official denied to the US embassy on Wednesday that the military council was planning to execute former emperor Haile Selassie. The official said that foreign press reports alleging that Haile Selassie had been moved to a town near Addis Ababa in preparation for his execution were "without foundation." The council also announced yesterday that there would be no more summary executions. The council held open the possibility that some of the former offi- cials still under detention will be executed after trials Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 During the past two weeks, a number of reports from a variety of sources have provided further elaboration on Communist instructions and preparations for the 1974-75 dry season campaign. In general, these reflect COSVN instructions reported earlier, which called for a widespread and intense period of fighting to begin in December and aimed primarily at disrupting Saigon's pacification effort and inflicting heavy losses on gov- ernment forces. vary as to the timing and intensity ot the expected increase in military action. In some areas, military planning has been com- pleted and the fighting could begin with little advance notice On the other hand large-scale attacks are no even scheduled to begin until sometime after mid-January. Between now and then his unit has been told to concentrate on motivation training, proselytizing, and increased ter- rorism and assassinations. Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010020-7 Approved For Release 007/03/28 : CIA-RDP7 T00975AO27200010020-7 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 The foreign ministers of the EC Nine, at their meet- ing this week, failed to reach full agreement on the is- sues that will be discussed at the EC summit planned for early next month. The ministers will make a final effort to reconcile their differences Monday and Tuesday. De- spite uncertainty over regional policy--a "precondition" for Italian and Irish participation--and probable failure to come up with adequate policies to deal with Europe's severe economic problems, it is nevertheless likely that the summit will take place in Paris on December 9-10. Although the Nine have been engaged in intense bar- gaining in recent weeks to promote their particular na- tional objectives, there has been little progress on most, of the issues--energy, regional policy, and infla- tion. Energy questions, in particular the French pro- posal for an oil consumer-producer conference and pos- sible French association, in some manner, with the work of the International Energy Agency--favored by the other eight--will be prime topics for discussion. Some ad- vances apparently have been made in resolving the dif- ferences on internal energy policies, but there is yet no agreement to set guidelines to reduce energy consump- tion. The Nine will also discuss the recent US proposals for consumer cooperation. EC financial assistance to the poorer regions of the community--mainly Ireland and southern Italy--was also discussed by the ministers on Monday. The Germans, who would foot most of the bill, are demanding important concessions from their partners as a price for agreement. Italy and Ireland are threatening not to attend the sum- mit unless "visible progress" toward an agreement is shown in advance;; most observers, however, feel that neither would stick to this threat. Agreement appears to be close on a proposal to in- crease the size of the EC's fund for unemployed workers and it is likely that this matter will be settled at next week's ministerial meeting. A common approach to the problem of inflation, on the other hand, has not been reached. Approved For Release 2007/03/28: CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010 20-7 Approved For Release 2 07/03/28: CIA-RDP7 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 EC institutional questions--among them proposals for periodic Council meetings of the Nine heads of gov- ernment, majority voting in the Council, and direct elec- tions for the European parliament--also are on the summit agenda. Paris initially wanted the summit devoted pri- marily to these matters, but the other eight insisted sub- stantive issues also be included. So far the only impor- tant institutional issue on which a consensus has been possible is for heads of government Council meetings, perhaps as often as four times a year, with agreement on the other proposals unlikely, due to UK and Danish opposi- tion. Most of the Nine are pessimistic that a summit meet- ing--which has been hastily prepared--will bring in any real progress on the basic questions facing the commu- nity. Most members have only reluctantly agreed to at- tend, mainly in order not to offend the French President. The uncomfortable prospect they face is that another sum- mit which accomplishes little--as was the case with the two previous ones--would serve only to increase the al- ready widespread disillusionment about progress toward European unification. Perhaps the major shadow over the summit is London's demand for "renegotiating" its terms of membership, and the prospect of British withdrawal if such terms cannot be sold to the British public. Prime Minister Wilson is concerned that the EC agree to seek a formula to permit reduction of individual national contributions to the EC budget by member states--like the UK--whose per-capita GNP falls significantly below the community average. Should the foreign ministers fail to reach agreement on how to approach the budget problem at their meeting next week, Wilson is expected to make this a principal issue at the summit, with the final outcome uncertain. Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release ~ National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 FRANCE The French navy has plans to increase the size of its Mediterranean squadron in order to enhance its op- erational capabilities when the Suez Canal reopens. The French deputy chief of naval operations has confirmed that the navy has asked for authority to make major redeployments involving the Atlantic and Mediter- ranean fleets. The deployments would move more major combatants into the Mediterranean and would transfer some antisubmarine forces into the Atlantic. Preliminary plans call for movement of two aircraft carriers, a .guided-missile cruiser, and two guided-missile frigates from their base at Brest to Toulon in order to reinforce the fleet of about 15 major combatants and 10 submarines now in the Mediterranean. The Atlantic Fleet would re- ceive five antisubmarine warfare ships from Toulon. The navy is also studying its capability to support .overseas deployments, including its Indian Ocean Fleet. The reduction of foreign bases has prompted Paris to de- velop a program to facilitate logistic support to ships while they are under way, beginning with the addition of a repair ship and the first of five tankers reportedly scheduled for commissioning in 1976. Fleet units permanently based in the Indian Ocean consist of a command ship, three destroyer escorts, a guided-missile! motor gunboat, four motor boats, and eight landing craft. This force may already have been augmented by the addition of a supply ship. A task force consisting of the carrier Clemenceau, a guided-missile destroyer, and two tankers are in the Indian Ocean on a temporary basis. This redeployment will strengthen the French naval position in relation to that of the USSR, US, and UK in the Mediterranean. In addition, it emphasizes a high level of interest in Arab oil and parallels Paris' con- cern about maintaining its oil route in the Indian Ocean, because it will probably allow one carrier to be on sta- tion in the eastern Mediterranean or Indian Ocean at all times. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 Full implementation of the plan probably will not occur until the opening of the Suez Canal to full traffic-- not expected before next spring. NORTH VIETNAM - FRANCE A North Vietnamese delegation headed by Hoang Trong Dai is visiting Paris this week to discuss French aid for next year. The French are already providing assistance for a variety of industrial development projects in North Viet- nam. Under last year's agreement, French firms have ne- gotiated a $10-million bicycle manufacturing installa- tion, a $4- to 5-million shrimp trawler fleet, a textile mill, and vegetable oil distilleries. Construction on the bicycle, trawler, and textile projects will begin shortly, I Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010020-7 Approved For Release 4 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 CAMBODIA-UN Cambodian Prince Sihanouk?s allies still could at- tempt a series of parliamentary maneuvers to upset the major victory Phnom Penh's backers won at the UN Wednes- day night. Phnom Penh, however, clearly has the advan- tage and should be able to stave off any last-ditch ef- fort by its opponents. A vote will be held this morning on an amendment to the successful pro-Phnom Penh resolution; pro-Sihanouk forces may try, for example, to use the occasion to re- open action on the resolution itself. Assembly President Bouteflika also might choose to ignore the provision of the successful resolution that defers the vote on changing the delegation and attempt to force a vote on the pro- Sihanouk resolution. Even if Sihanouk"s backers forgo such maneuvers, the Lon Nol government.will probably face a renewed-- though probably meaningless--challenge when the creden- tials committee submits its report later in the Assembly session. Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Approved For Release 2 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 USSR-US: A. formation of US and CENTO naval ships participating in. an annual exercise had to change course twice to avoid colliding with a Soviet space vehicle re- covery ship in the Arabian Sea on November 26. The So- viet ship Sevan was first identified heading directly for the allied formation at a distance of four miles. The US and CENTO group ships changed course. The Sevan, however, also altered its course, which required still another course change by the formation. The Sevan passed within 500 yards of one US ship, then turned and began tailing the group. Incidents of this kind have been rare since the US-USSR agreement in 1972 on pre- venting incidents at sea. Approved For Release 2 )071b T 8 : - - Approved For Release 007/03/28: CIA-RDP79 00975A027200010020-7 National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974 Mexico-Ch?i-le: Mexico's decision to break relations with Mile was probably taken to curry favor in the Third World by portraying Mexico as a political opposite of the Chilean military junta. The two countries have been sniping at each other ever since Allende's death last year. President Echeverria was friendly with Allende and has been decidedly cold toward the Pinochet government. Chile is angry over Mexico's refusal to normalize rela- tions and to deliver on a promised sale of fertilizer. Mexico is upset at the junta's reluctance to allow cer- tain Chilean citizens, including Allende's sister, to take asylum in Mexico. It is unclear why Echeverria waited until now to make the break, but he may have seen little chance of obtaining any additional refugees. South Vietnam. Plans for a massive Catholic demon- stration in Saigon yesterday fizzled. Spokesmen for the Catholic anticorruption movement had claimed that thou- sands of demonstrators would protest the government's scheduled court action against three opposition news- papers. Only a few hundred protestors, however, assembled at Catholic churches in Saigon's outskirts, and police easily kept them from marching downtown. In the court- room, meanwhile, the government postponed further pro- ceedings against the newspapers until early next year. Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010020-7 Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/28 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27200010020-7