NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010034-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: December 7, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
NNOW-MIN
National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
N?_ 647
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 7, 1974
CONTENTS
CYPRUS: Makarios' return adds troublesome element to
tense situation. (Page 1)
ETHIOPIA: Key positions filled. (Page 8)
BRAZIL: Government officials apparently using news of
of -find to offset recent economic setbacks. (Page 15)
COLOMBIA: Demonstrators protest President's emergency
economic measures during review by Congress. (Page 16)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 17)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 7, 1974
Archbishop Makarios' return to Cyprus today after
a five-month exile introduces troublesome elements into
a situation that is already charged with tension. He
could with one speech wreck the positive atmosphere that
has developed in the negotiations between Acting Presi-
dent Clerides and Turkish Cypriot Vice President Denktash.
Makarios is aware of this and is not likely to take
any actions that could kill his chance of again becoming
leader of all Cypriots. He may not, however, be able to
control emotional outbursts from within his own Greek
Cypriot community; Makarios'.supporters and opponents
are now more sharply divided than when he fled the is-
land last July.
Most observers expect some violence, particularly
from people who experienced the loss of friends and rel-
atives in the bloody aftermath of the coup last July.
Press reports indicate some firing last night along
the "green line" that divides the Turkish Cypriot and
Greek Cypriot sectors of the capital. Makarios is ex-
pected to reside in the archbishopric in Nicosia, which
is located only a short distance from the "green line."
In the short 'run, the euphoria surrounding the archbish-
op's return will sustain his popularity, as will the
threat posed by the presence of the Turks.
Most of the opposition to Makarios appears to share
the belief that Greek Cypriot unity is essential in the
months ahead to deal with the Turkish threat. Many of
the more radical leaders of the EOKA-B terrorist organi-
zation that participated in the coup in July have left
the island, while responsible EOKA-B leaders still on
Cyprus have reportedly urged their followers to refrain
from violence unless provoked.
Makarios has tried to encourage this attitude by
publicly extending an olive branch to his Greek Cypriot
adversaries. He has called for unity and reconciliation
among Greek Cypriots and "forgiven" those who sought his
overthrow. He also recently expressed the hope that the
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 7, 1974
discord in the church between those who oppose and sup-
port him will be ended.
Ultimately, Makarios' standing among Greek Cypriots
will depend on his success in wresting concessions from
the Turks and Turkish Cypriots. When Makarios was forced
to flee the country last July, Cyprus was relatively pros-
perous and dominated by its well-to-do Greek Cypriot ma-
jority. Now the island's economy is in ruins. Most of
what wealth remains and much of the land is under the con-
trol of the Turkish Cypriot minority.
Approximately 200,000 Greek Cypriots--almost one
third of the island's population--are dispossessed and
are expecting a miracle from Makarios. If he cannot de-
liver, their faith and support for him could dwindle
rapidly and lead to serious disorders in the Greek Cyp-
riot sector.
Makarios is expected upon his return to Nicosia to
limit his movements for security reasons. He will hold
a series of consultations with leading members of the
Greek Cypriot community, following which he will probably
make some changes in the executive branch to consolidate
his position and give Clerides written instructions to
negotiate a settlement with the Turkish Cypriots.
Makarios' heretofore uncompromising stance toward
the Turkish Cypriots had been fashioned by his belief
that time was on the side of the Greek Cypriots. Only
recently has the archbishop come to accept the fact that
the situation may now be reversed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 7, 1974
The archbishop could still complicate the negotia-
tions, however, by quibbling over the number or size of
the Turkish Cypriot zones and the extent of their powers.
He could even abandon the proposal in favor of a tougher
line.
For their part, the Turks and Turkish Cypriots are
concerned about the effect Makarios' return will have on
the Greek Cypriot negotiating position and the security
of Turkish Cypriots living in the Greek Cypriot sector
of the island should intercommunal fighting break out.
Their reaction to the Athens summit has been cautious,
and they are doubtless awaiting full details of the new
Greek Cypriot proposals before taking a position. Turk-
ish Cypriot Vice President Denktash's tentative agreement
to hold another round of humanitarian talks with Clerides
on December 9 and his statement to Clerides that he is
prepared to open substantive talks if Clerides is given
a clear mandate to negotiate a political settlement are
positive signs.
Makarios will be returning to Cyprus with signif-
icant assets. He enjoys the support of a majority of
,Greek Cypriot groups and individuals. He will control
the church and its vast wealth as well as the bureaucracy,
and he has the public if not private blessing of the
Greek government. Moreover, his opponents on the right
and center-right are reportedly passive, divided, and
politically impotent. Clerides, in particular, remains
a leader without an effective political machine or ability
.o challenge Makarios openly. His own political party iS
reportedly split between those loyal to him and those who
support Makarios.
Makarios' long-term prospects, however, will depend
on the degree to which he can successfully confront the
severe dislocations within the Greek Cypriot community
and the type of settlement he can get from the Turkish
Cypriots. At this stage it appears that the archbishop
is in for some rough going and probably will eventually
experience a decline in his o ularit
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ETHIOPIA
December 7, 1974
Ethiopia's ruling military council, trying to dem-
onstrate it is cretting down to business, yesterday named
its choices to fill key military and government vacancies.
The council. appointed General Getachew Nadew to
head the ground forces and General Taye Telahun the air
force--both are well qualified. Other posts filled in-
clude police commander, navy commander, and infantry
division commanders. The appointees do not appear to
belong to any single tribal group or military faction.
The military council also named new foreign and
defense ministers. Its choice to head the Foreign Min-
istry was Kifle Wodajo, who spent many.years in the US,
first as Ethiopia's UN representative and then as ambas-
sador since 1972, Kifle replaces Zewde Gebre Selassie,
who is in Washington and has decided not to return home.
Ayalew Mandefro, until recently ambassador to
Somalia, will take over the defense portfolio, replacing
the late General Amano Ayalew has performed well in his
delicate diplomatic post.
The council has also announced that a military
tribunal has begun to try former officials. The announce-
ment provided few details, but it appears that the tri-
bunal is dealing with lesser offenders. Earlier this
week the council arrested 17 additional persons, most
of whom had been associates of old regime officials or
of General Amano
The council responded cooly to the appeal by the
UN Secretary General on behalf of the current group of
prisoners, estimated to number more than 170
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National Intelligence Bulletin
BRAZIL
December 7, 1974
Brazilian officials are trumpeting a potentially
rich oil find off the coast of Rio de Janeiro State.
Finance Minister Simonsen has estimated that the find
could make Brazil nearly self-sufficient by the end of
the decade; Mines and Energy Minister Ueki is also op-
timistic.
Brazil habitually overreacts to a new petroleum
find, and this may be only the latest in a series of
overly optimistic outbursts. Despite a call for caution
by the head of the state petroleum enterprise, government
spokesmen and press accounts are contributing to what
the US embassy calls a "climate of euphoria." The news
has caused a sharp rise in stock market prices.
Even though the real dimension of the discovery will
not be known for some time, members of the Geisel admin-
istration apparently have seized on the news to try to
offset the impact of recent economic setbacks. Brazil
faces a serious balance-of-payments problem as well as
high inflation--both made worse by extensive imports of
crude. Government officials have indicated that Brazil's
h
e
extraordinary growth rate will probably decline in t
coming year.
The estimate may also be, as the US embassy points
out, a bid to rebuild the administration's prestige,
last month.
r
t
i
l
'
y
o
c
v
s electora
following the opposition
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 7, 1974
COLOMBIA
President Lopez' stringent efforts to contend with
the serious economic problems he inherited four months
ago have eroded his public and congressional support.
The Colombian congress is continuing its mandatory
review of the emergency economic measures decreed by
Lopez in September and October, but the review is moving
slowly as the legislators keep an eye on public opinion.
Violent demonstrations against the measures are taking
place in many parts of the country, forcing Lopez to
place several cities and towns under modified martial
law and to call in troops to help police.
Although Lopez has quietly abandoned a campaign of
television appearances in support of the economic meas-
ures, he has not wavered from the measures themselves.
The unexpected tension engendered by these moves is,
however, likely to produce some accommodation over time.
If the combined weight of the demonstrations and
martial law becomes a significant factor in the con-
gressional review process, Lopez can be expected to
change his tack. He could do this most easily by
sacrificing his economic team and negotiating changes
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FOR THE RECORD
Burma: According to press reports, the Burmese gov-
ernment has agreed to a student demand that a special
monument be erected in honor of former UN secretary gen-
eral U Thant. The action is likely to defuse student
protests over the government's handling of funeral ar-
rangements for U Thant. 1 -1
Vietnam: Initial analysis of aerial photography
dentified four possible North Vietnamese
57-mm. sing e-barrel antiaircraft guns mounted on T-34
tank chassis. there was photographic con-
firmation of twin 37-mm. antiaircraft guns mounted on
T-34 tank chassis in Quang Tri Province. The 57-mm.
weapon system may have been improvised in North Vietnam
or possibly produced in China. There is no known Soviet
system incorporating these weapons with a tank chassis.
If confirmed, this weapon system could be effectively
used for convoy protection an mobile combat operations
in South Vietnam.[ I
North Vietnam - USSR: A North Vietnamese delegation
led by Foreign Minister Nguyen Duy Trinh arrived in Mos-
cow this week to negotiate the Soviet - North Vietnamese
aid agreement for next year. Radio Hanoi has said that
the Trinh mission "will hold talks and sign agreements
on Soviet economic and military aid." This is a depar-
ture from last year's descriptions of the aid agreement;
both Moscow and Hanoi then noted that the aid package
was purely "economic and technical." North Vietnam and
reement
id a
i
g
c a
China concluded a military and econom
for 1975 in late October.
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Top Secret
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