CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010048-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 15, 2007
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: December 16, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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To Secret
National 1 ntel 1 igence
Bulletin
Top Secret
N?_ 654
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 16, 1974
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist forces maintaining heavy pres-
sure in the South. (Page 1)
EGYPT: Cairo media react to Fahmi's statement enumerat-
ing tougher negotiating conditions. (Page 2)
RHODESIA: Rebels allowed to resume political activity.
(Page 4 )
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tr+h~ c Phong
c ~
A
SOUTH VIETNAM
25 50 75
Statute Miles.-
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National Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM
December 16, 1974
Communist forces overran a district town north of
Saigon this weekend and are maintaining heavy pressure
against several other government positions and population
centers in the southern half of the country.
Duc PYiong, a district town in Phuoc Long Province,
fell on December 15 after nearly five hours of heavy Com-
munist shelling. Local militia defending the town with-
drew in orderly fashion; casualty figures are not yet
available. Communist forces in the area--believed to in-
clude a North Vietnamese regiment--also overran a govern-
ment military encampment. farther south and are pressuring
~;he adjoining district capital at Don Luan. Rockets and
artillery have been fired into the provincial capital
at Phuoc Binh.
Heavy fighting continues in Tay Ninh Province
where South Vietnamese units are having trouble trying
to reinforce local militia units at two locations on
the outskirts of the provincial capital. The govern-
ment's commander for P'iilitary Region 3, General Nam, re-
portedly is reluctant to co 'n combat units
In the delta, action has diminished in Kien Tuong
Province after six days of heavy fighting, but renewed
Communist assaults are expected soon. Units from the
North Vietnamese 5th Division infiltrating the area now
have almost complete control of Tuyen Nhon district.
f the action s
kept e pace
e.rn command.
y ~, ~r; i-v P1 ~Pe~rhere
in the county
is light,
Heavy rains in Mi nary egi
low i the cou r -
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National IntE+Ilic~enCe ~ulietit~ December 16, 1974
Cairo media have avoided comment on a key point in
Foreign Minister Fahmi's enumeration on k'riday of Egypt's
tougher negotiating' conditions--the demand that Israel
either agree toy the formation of a single Jewish-Muslim-
Christian state ar return to the UN partition plan of
1947. Media camsnentators have made much, however, of
the demand that;:Israel cease immigration for 50 years.
Cairo could b~e having second thoughts about its
bold attempt to; :redefine Israel's pre-196? borders. The
emphasis on the~:i~mmigration issue could in itself upset
negotiations and, at a minimum, will revive Israeli
doubts about Egyptian willingness eventually to coexist
with Israel.
The media, ias,ua:lly quick to take up any theme enun-
ciated by gavernrne~nt officials, were initially silent.
Cairo radio waitE~,d almost 24 hours; the .press did not
comment until yesterday. The delay suggests that Fahmi's
announcement caused some consternation and that the media
obtained officia:L,guidance before venturing to editori-
alize.
Explaining ~'ahmi's demand for an end to immigration.
a Cairo radio cornrnentator said that it was not made "out
of blatant arrogance" but only to "diagnose`" the source
of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The commentator equated
Israel?s "expansionist policy" with i:ts encouragement
of immigration. Hey claimed that expansionism is the de-
liberate aim of 7:sraeli leaders and the natural outcome
of immigration, ~rh.i~ch cannot be sustained except by ex-
tending Israel's present area.
Cairo newsp~~pers have touched on an Egyptian con-
cern arising fronv- Prime Minister Robin's recent state-
ment of Israel`s 'negotiating strategy. .The papers as-
sert that Egypt wi~1 not be a party to Robin's strategy
because it operates on the assumption that Israel can
remove Egypt frorrr the conflict via a separate agreement
and then more easily "impose?',its conditions on the
other Arab state~~:.
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National Intellic?). ence Bulletin
December 16, 1974
The press commentary and Cairo radio's denunciation
of Israeli immigration may signal Egypt's attempt to re-
assert its guardianship over the Arab cause by joining
forces with the other Arabs and in effect backing off
from its more independent stance.
Sadat has until now appeared to be willing to pro-
ceed with a second-stage withdrawal in the Sinai Penin-
sula, despite the brickbats of other Arabs, particularly
Syria, in order to ease domestic military pressures and
to justify his reliance on US mediation. Israeli lead-
ers have hinted broadly during the past week that such
a withdrawal would be the last for several years.
Sadat ma have concluded that he could not sustain
another
Egyptian- Brae i agreemen on e inai i ere were
not hope for q -u movement at least on the
S rian front.
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National IntE~lligence ~ullotin
RHODESIA
December 16, 1974
Prime Minister Smith has taken the first step toward
implementing his truce agreement with Rhodesian insurgents
by allowing two long-imprisoned rebel leaders to resume
political activity in Rhodesia.
Late last week, Joshua Nkomo and Ndabaningi Sithole,
leaders of the Zimbabwe African Peoples Union and the
Zimbabwe African National. Union, respectively, made a
joint public appearance-and statement in Salisbury after
returning from Lusaka, Zambia, where they had gone to
formulate a common bargaining position with exiled Rho-
desian insurgent;~ and to negotiate the truce with Smith's
envoys. The appearance of the two leaders, their first
in a decade, followed Smith's announcement that, in re-
turn for a cease?-fire agreement, he was releasing all
the black nationalists who have been under detention in
Rhodesia. Nkomo and Sithole were joined in their appear-
ance by Bishop Mi~,zorewa, head of the noninsurgent African
National Council, the only nationalist group Smith has
allowed to function openly in Rhodesia.
Rhodesia's exiled nationalist leaders, who have
been directing guerrilla operations inside Rhodesia from
bases in Zambia, may not be willing to honor an immedi-
ate cease-fire as implied in Smith's announcement of the
truce. 'T'hese leaders, who also participated in the
Lusaka talks, have not been heard from since the talks.
The exiled nationalists may be awaiting assurance
that Smith`s promise of amnesty applies to them along
with the nationaJ~_ists who have been under detention iri
Rhodesia, or they ma be waitin f r Smith o make fur-
ther concessions.,
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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