CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
15
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 19, 2008
Sequence Number: 
28
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 8, 1975
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7.pdf465.45 KB
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Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Top Secret National 1 ntel 1 igence Bulletin State Dept. review completed DIA review(s) completed. Top Secret February 8, 1975 N?_ 638 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Builetir~- February 8, 1975 CONTENTS TURKEY-CYPRUS: Indications that Turkish forces are pre- paring or new military operations; negotiations continue. (Page 1) BRAZIL: Government officials continue to stress ecpnomic ach evements, despite prospect Qf slower growth this year. (Page 6 ) CHILE-BOLIVIA: Meeting between Pinacret and Banter could mean restoration of full diplomatic relations. (Page 9) LATIN AMERICA: Venezuela has been criticized privately by some Latin American governments for its recent role in regional affairs. (Page 10) 25X1 FOR THE RECORD: (Page 18) Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Bulle?~ir~ February s, 1975 Turk- ish forces on Cyp~ are re ar~.n o ~n~ ~a e new mili- ar o erat~.ons o This morna.ng, a s~, ua io remains quiet, an no new cease-fire violations have been reported? the U8 defense attac~.~ in Nicosia reit- erated on Fri ay that today, or Sunday at the latest, the Turks will carry out the previously reported plan to clear the Greek National Guard out of several posi- tions around Nicosia and to the west as far as Lefka near Morphou ~aym Military moves in the eastern portion of Cyprus, as well as the plan concerning the objectives in the west, suggest the Turks maybe moving into position to seal off the northern half of the island presently :held by Turkish forces9 An embassy official.. reported that i.n the morning, up to 1,000 Turkish com- mando troops In battle gear were waitin for trans ort at two locations near IC renia~ T'he defense attach a so stated that Turkish reconnaissance aircraft were active west of Nicosia yesterdayo 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 .25X1 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Bulletin N`ebruary 8 , l9 75 On the political front, a Bess ominous note was sounded yesterday when Greek Cypriot negotiator Clerides and Turkish Cypriot. leader Denk~ash heed their eighth session on substantive polit~ca~ negotiations and agreed to meet again on Monday- There was still no movemen~ on the airport issue i.n the meetingo Clerides again r?ejected Denlctash's in- sistence that the airport be managed b~ representatives of the guarantor powers--the UI{; Greece and Turkey. When Denktash reiterated his ofr'er to a'~.low some 5,000 Greek Cypriot refugees to return to areas behind Turk- i..sh lines near Athienou in the south, Clerides again dismissed the offer as insigni.f~cant in view of the 180-,000 Greek Cypriot refugees~n the Greek Cypriot zone. Denktash read a statement at the meet~.ng reaffirm- ing the Turkish si.de's desire t2'i3t the talks continue, Clerides took note of Denktash' statement earlier in the week, however, in which he Threatened to declare an independent Turkish Cypriot ~tate~ Clerides warned that the talks would be discontyr~ued if this were to occur. Denktash admitted that had it not been for "out- side intervention" he would now be president of an in- dependent Turkish Cypriot repubi3c of CY~prusm At the meeting, C1er~i.des arnoun~:ed that he would present a Greek Cypriot position paper un all issues at Monday's session., The position paper is likely to spell out Greek Cypriot terms for ache establishment of a multi- regional federation wish a strong centra~. government Should Turkish forces initiate a milita~.?y :operation over the weekend, however, the Greek Cypriot. side may well abandon the tanks and turn to air;~uther f arum such as the UN Security CounciYz 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Q Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Bulletin February 8, 19'75 The prospect of substantially lower economic grow t'h this year--perhaps as low as half of last year's 10- percent rate--is not dampening the optimism publicly pro- fessed by government officials. They continue to stress the very real progress that the country has made and will continue to make. Top official s, from President Geisel down, are, however, adjusting their rhetoric in a way that reflects both recognition of economic challenges and pre- occupation with current or potential problems, In his year-end speech, President Gesel stressed Brazil's continuing ability to meet the objectives of its development goals. He painted out the high rate of employment, prospects for good harvests, and ongoing industrial expansion. Such economic problems as Brazil has, he said, are largely attributable to outside forces and can be dealt with. Finance Minister Simonsen and other top economic planners have recently been emphasizing how much more growth Brazil will experience this year than most of the industrialized nations, whose economies may very well stagnate or grow only marginally Top officials also stress that inflation, which went up sharply during much of last year, has again been brought under control. This encouraging message is designed for the potential over- seas investor, notably in the Middle East, as well as for domestic audiences whose anxiety over economic matters has been increasing. Government spokesmen have also sought to capitalize on the discovery late last year of significant oil de- posits off the Rio coast. They have tried to dispel the gloom occasioned by Inflation and balance-of-payments problems by talking up--rather premature?y--the prospects for e-arty self-sufficiency in petroleum. Notwithstanding this outward optimism, it is not difficult to discern a realization among top officials that a lowering of economic expectations is unavoidable. No longer do economic planners confident.?Ay predict a yearly growth rate of 10 percent--to whi.:h Brazil had Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Bulletin February 8, 1975 become accustomed--or for that matter, any specific fig- ure. In private, they speak of growth on the order of 5 or 6 percent, still impressive by comparison with other nations, but nonetheless disappointing for Brazil. The administration has set no specific target for the reduction of inflation in the coming year, a prac- tice that had become routine under the previous adminis- tration. Finally, in recognition of the serious balance- of-payments problem, the government is attempting to limit this year's imports to the level of last year, a move certain to have an inhibiting effect on growth. Since the revolution bases its claim to power largely on its ability to deliver on economic promises, the gov- ernment is apt to be particularly sensitive to any eco- nomic setback, especially if there is any possibility of a prolonged, serious downturn. The Geisel administra- tion has incorporated in its list of economic priorities for 1975 a number of items--featured rather prominently-- that reflect increased attention to social, rather than strictly growth-related, matters. Specifically, the government has acknowledged the need to foster social development and more equitable dis- tribution of national income. A7oreover, Geisel has set limits on the amount of price increase permissible this year on goods and services provided by the public sector, and he is allowing substantial wage increases. These moves appear to be in response to last fall's opposition electoral victories, generally seen as a mass protest against worsening economic conditions. The gov- ernment's action may signal a realization that, if the economy no longer booms as it once did, the revolution's appeal for support must be broadened. If this is indeed the case, it appears that lowered economic growth pros- pects will have contributed, at least somewhat. to greater government responsiveness to the populace. Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 0 50 ---`Z1 i ~-~ T ^'i ~ 0 50 12 5>7791 2-75 ___. 68 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Nat101'lal Iri#@IllgenCe BUII@tltl February 8, 19.75 CHILE-BOLIVIA Chilean President Pinochet and Bolivian President Banzer will meet today. An end to the 13-year break in full diplomatic relations between the two nations could be in the offing. The meeting, at Chile's initiative, will be the sec- ond between Pinochet and Banzer in less than a year: It will be held near the Bolivian town of Charana, which is an the Arica - La Paz rail line. Chilean fear of aggression by Peru is largely respon- sible for Santiago's efforts to eliminate points of fric- tion with Bolivia. Recent changes in the fees charged to La Paz for port services at Arica have reduced them below the break-even point. Pinochet may now be. prepared to invite Bolivia to share in control of the Chilean leg of the Arica - La Paz rail line ar announce other moves de- signed to facilitate Bolivian export:-import trade through Arica. In any event, Banzer's statement this week that a solution to his country"s landloek,ed situation is no longer a precondition for renewing diplomatic ties sets a propitious atmosphere for the talks. Bolivia`s chances- of regaining its last seacoast remain as remote as ever, but La Paz could reap further political and economic benefits from the tensions between Chile and Peru. Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Bulletin LATIN AMERICA February 8, 19'75 Some Latin American governments are privately ac- cusing Venezuela of "wielding a big stick" in inter- American affairs. This criticism centers on their be- lief that Venezuela was instrumental in the cancellation of the foreign ministers' conference s-cheduled to be held next month in .Buenos Aires.. The Argentines apparently have second thoughts about having called off the meeting. Earlier this week, For- eign Ministry officials expressed their regret to the US ambassador, saying that "certain nouveau riche coun- tries" had forced indefinite postponement by refusing to attend on grounds of opposition to the US Trade Reform Act. President Peron's government cannot afford to jeopardize a pending multi-million petroleum credit from Venezuela, but resentment over the postponement could focus on Foreign Minister Vignes and force him out of the cabinet. In Uruguay, a leading Montevideo newspaper has attacked Venezuela for sending delegates to a US con- ference on bilateral relations, after having called for hemispheric solidari-ty in opposing Washington. Government spokesmen in Nicaragua, Guyana, and Trinidad have recently confessed their reluctance to support Venezuela's claim to leadership in regional af- fairs. Their geographic proximity to Venezuela and their recognition of the acute need for petroleum through- out the hemisphere, however, will preclude open expres- sions of hostility. Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Next 6 Page(s) In Document Denied Q Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 National Intelligence Bulletin February 8 r 1975 Par~ugal: Extreme leftist demonstrators marched unmolested through Lisbon last night, defying a govern- ment ban on public rallies. The Communist Party told the populace not to take part in the demonstration so as not to provoke a rightist reaction. Troops stood ready in nearby barracks, and there were no reports of violence. Mast of the demonstrators chanted slogans about unemployment and low wages-, the original targets of the march. Some demonstrators also protested the presence in Lisbon of NATO forces on shore leave, follow- ing a week of anti-submarine exercises off the Portuguese coast; they carried "out with NATO" and "death to capital- ism" banners. Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Plational Intelligence Bulletin February 8, 1975 USSR-Cuba: The Soviet.TJnion maintained a moderate. level of arms deliveries to Cuba during 1974, and no new weapons svstems are known to have been introduced. level of deliveries an t e ypes o equa.pmen Jsupplied suggest the Soviets are s mm'tted onl to a mini- mum replacement program 25X1 25X1 ~r~ Approved For Release 2008/09/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Release 2008/09/19 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010028-7