CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027500010022-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2008
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 13, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
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Top Secret
N?_ 638
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 13, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Armed Forces Movement announces new steps it
will take in response to coup attempt. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: The military situation. (Page 5)
PHILIPPINES: Plans under way for second round of nego-
tiations in Jidda. (Page 7)
UN-CYPRUS: Greek, Turkish Cypriots agree to return to
bargaining table. (Page 11)
UK - ITALY - WEST GERMANY: London's decision to go ahead
with the purchase of all MRCAs on order may encourage
Bonn and Rome to do the same. (Page 13)
KENYA: Tension continues, following murder of government
critic. (Page 14)
HAITI: Scandal uncovered that could affect Duvalier.
Page 16)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 17)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 13, 1975
The Portuguese Armed Forces Movement, now apparently
under firm leftist control, yesterday announced the steps
it will take in response to the unsuccessful coup attempt
on Tuesday.
The decisions announced by the Movement include:
--A formal assumption by the Movement of control
over Portuguese politics, a decision that probably
spells the end of serious negotiations between the
military and civilian politicians over the mili-
tary's share of political power.
--The creation of a new executive body, to be called
the council. of the revolution, to carry out the
Movement's political role.
--A reaffirmation that the election of a constitu-
ent assembly will be held on April 12.
--A reshuffle of Prime Minister Goncalves' cabinet
so that it can take a "firmer and 'better defined
line in keeping with the program of the Armed
Forces Movement."
The Movement has also drawn up lists of military
commanders to be replaced and of persons to be arrested
in connection with the ill-conceived coup attempt. Our
embassy in Lisbon believes that Movement radicals will
move to round up former President Spinola's supporters.
Spinola and the others who fled to Spain have been dis-
missed from the service.
A commission has been set up to investigate the
coup attempt, and the Movement's campaign to "educate
the public" about its goals will be intensified. The
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 13, 1975
councils of the individual arms and services, in which
moderates had assumed control after the elections last
week, have been abolished.
The only consolation to moderates is that the elec-
tion for the constituent assembly--in which they have
hoped to do well--will come off as planned. It will no
longer be as significant an event as they had hoped,
however, because the Movement has no intention of giving
up any political power. The offices of the moderate
parties in many places were heavily damaged by roving
mobs of extreme leftists on Tuesday night.
A few street demonstrations took place in Lisbon
yesterday, including one at the US embassy. The govern-
ment, however, has repudiated a suggestion from General
Otelo de Carvalho, commander of the Lisbon military
region and deputy commander of the national security
force, that US Ambassador Carlucci go home. Portuquese
marines are now stationed outside the embassy.
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THAILAND
Sol;
Gulf of
Thailand
I
MILES
4> hong
SOUTH VIETNAM
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 13, 1975
The South Vietnamese are moving to counter the
communists' spreading military campaign.
Government counterattacks west of Hue have regained
most of the ground lost during the past few days. Heavy
fighting has developed in coastal Binh Dinh Province as
a result of similar government actions.
Thuot have been reinforced
Saigon has directed the air force to
provide "maximum support" to the highland battlefront
and has authorized the dispatch of additional forces to
Ban Me Thuot to regain control of the town.
The commander of the region surrounding Saigon is
positioning his forces to block communist advances in
southern Tay Ninh and western Binh Duong provinces. He
is also consolidating the units of the division respon-
sible for the defense of Tay Ninh City and is moving
other units to reopen Route 22, which links Saigon to
Tay Ninh and has been cut for several days.
Faced with mounting and widespread communist mili-
tary pressure, President Thieu has ordered the Airborne
Division to return early next week from the northern
provinces to Saigon, presumably for use as a reserve
force that could be deployed to critical areas such as
the highlands or northwest of Saigon. This move, how-
ever, would shift the balance of forces in Military
Region 1 in the communists' favor.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
PHILIPPINES
March 13, 1975
The government is working on proposals for the
second round of talks with Muslim rebels, tentatively
planned for sometime next month in Jidda, Saudi Arabia.
At the talks in January, rebel leader Nur Misuari
called for creation of an autonomous Muslim "state" to
include Mindanao, Basilan, Sulu, and Palawan. The Mus-
lims were to control internal security and administra-
tion, but the state was to remain a part of the Philip-
pines. Misuari rejected as insufficient Manila's pro-
posal of greater Muslim authority over local government
affairs.
Marcos will certainly not agree to the sweeping au-
tonomy that Misuari has demanded. But if Marcos is even
willing to discuss a "federal state," he will be taking
an important step toward meeting Muslim political
grievances. Details about the geographic delineation,
internal administration, and leadership of such a state
would probably take a long time to iron out. Moreover,
it is not yet clear whether Marcos is seriously offer-
ing the Muslims meaningful political autonomy or just
devising some dramatic, but :relatively empty, negotiat-
ing ploy.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 13, 1975
UN-CYPRUS
Greek and Turkish Cypriots agreed to return to the
bargaining table after the UN Security Council yester-
day adopted, by consensus, a resolution acceptable to
both sides.
The resolution, which is primarily the work of EC
and nonaligned members of the Security Council, largely
reaffirms the provisions of earlier resolutions adopted
by the Council and the General Assembly. It requests
the withdrawal of foreign troops from Cyprus and the
return of refugees to'their homes.
The key element in the resolution is a call for
the renewal of intercommunal negotiations under the
"auspices" of the UN secretary general. This language
sidesteps the long impasse over the role to be played by
Secretary General Waldheim. In effect, the resolution
leaves it to the two Cypriot communities to determine
the scope of Waldheim's role.
In a separate statement, the Council president
suggested a change of venue for the talks and mentioned
New York as a meeting place. The Turkish delegation is
likely to balk at this, and the negotiations will prob-
ably take place in Nicosia or a European capital.
The resolution the-Security Council passed provides
a face-saving way for the Greek Cypriots to resume the
talks they broke off last month following the Turkish
side's declaration of a separate Turkish Cypriot state.
The Greek Cypriots are returning to the bargaining
table for want of an alternative. They doubtless are
hoping that the termination of US military aid to Turkey
will eventuall make the Turks more willin to ive cessions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 13, 1975
According to press reports, the British will pur-
chase all 385 of the multirole combat aircraft (MRCA)
they have on order. In making the announcement to the
House of Commons, Minister of State for Defense Rodgers
indicated that inflation has caused the price to rise to
the equivalent of nearly $9 million, a plane.
British plans call for 220 of the MRCAs to be used
in interdiction, strike, and reconnaissance roles, while
the remaining 165 will be employed as interceptors for
air defense of the UK. Last spring, the government had
considered dropping its order for the interceptor version
because of budgetary difficulties. Because the other
two consortium members involved in development of the
aircraft--Italy and West Germany--do not have a require-
ment for an air defense interceptor version of the air-
craft, Britain will have to pay the entire cost of its
development.
The UK's announcement, may encourage West Germany
and Italy to proceed with plans to purchase 320 and
100 MRCAs respectively. West Germany has been consider-
ing a cutback in the number of MRCAs it will purchase,
while Italy has considered opting out of the program
altogether.
The MRCA has been troubled with development prob-
lems, cost overruns, and severe public criticism almost
from the beginning. As of early January, there were
still problems with the engine, and the program has
slipped another four or five months. Two prototypes
are now flying--one in West Germany and the other in the
UK. A third aircraft is undergoing ground-testing in
the UK and should make its initial flight soon.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 13, 1975
Tension persists in Nairobi, following the murder
of J. M. Kariuki, a vocal. critic of President Kenyatta's
regime and a spokesman for the country's have-nots. The
police, who yesterday put down a demonstration by uni-
versity students mourning Kariuki, are anticipating
further trouble from students and urban poor and from
Kariuki's home area in the north.
Responsibility for Kariuki's death has not yet been
established. Many Kenyans suspect that Kariuki was ab-
ducted and killed by members of the presidential body-
guard or by other security personnel, perhaps at the
instigation of senior government officials belonging to
Kenyatta's po dominant southern clan of the
Kikuyu tribe.
Kariuki's murder may trigger further terrorist in-
cidents similar to those that have gripped Kenya since
mid-February. Authorities have not been able to deter-
mine who was behind these incidents, which have included
several bombings, a train derailment, and the maiming
of livestock--a favorite Mai, Mau tactic--on farms be-
longing to Kenyatta and his wife. An organization call-
ing itself the "Poor People's Liberation Organization"
has claimed responsibility for several of the bombings.
Sharp denunciations of the murder can, be expected
from Kariuki's fellow back-benchers in Parliament at
today's session. If the session gets out of hand, Ken-
yatta might dissolve Parliament, a move that would add
to the political tensions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 13, 1975
HAITI
The discovery of a major attempted swindle could
have political repercussions that may even affect the
presidential palace. Influential Secretary of Commerce
and Industry Serge Fourcand has been fired. He faces
criminal charges for his alleged involvement in a scheme
to sell several million dollars worth of unauthorized
Haitian stamps and pocket the proceeds. According to
an official investigation, Fourcand and about 15 others
used forged documents to contract a-US firm to print
and market the stamps.
There may be good grounds for the charges against
Fourcand, but political factors also have unquestionably
played a role in his downfall. Despite his successes
in policies such as developing closer ties with Caribbean
neighbors and bargaining with US bauxite firms, his ag-
gressive style and his influence with President Duvalier
earned him powerful enemies. His successor in the cabi-
net apparently has ties to the conservative group which
includes Duvalier's sister Marie-Denise, one of Fourcand's
critics. Now that Fourcand is gone, the conservatives
may try to discredit other "progressive" technocrats in
the government.
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National Intelligence (Bulletin
March 13, 1975
Cambodia: Full airlift operations--including DC-8
flights from Saigon--resumed yesterday, despite continu-
ing communist rocket attacks against Phnom Penh's Pochen-
tong airport. Yesterday, only a few artillery rounds
landed near the airfield. The government operation to
retake the town of Tuol Leap--six miles northwest of
Pochentong--made slight gains yesterday. Command prob-
lems still hinder the operation.
Burma: Burmese army units have retaken most of the
towns that were lost during the initial stages of the
Burmese Communist Party's dry season offensive in east-
ern Shan State. The communists, however, still effec-
tively control portions of two main highways which run
south and west from the border with China. Insurgent
propaganda claims that the communists will initiate
another offensive before the onset of the monsoon in
May.
(continued)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 13, 1975
USSR: A new roll--on/roll-off Neva-class cargo ship
has been introduced into the Soviets' merchant ship in-
ventory. It will. be able to support military forces in
distant areas as a vehicular transport or cargo craft.
This first unit of eight to be built is fitted with a
clamshell-type bow door and is capable of moving military
cargo to areas with limited port facilities. The ship's
three unobstructed cargo decks can accommodate 500 pas-
senger vehicles, or 242 containers, or the equivalent
tonnage in military cargo. The ramp can support a Soviet
T62 tank, and the heavy-duty ventilation system will per-
mit vehicles to warm up while the ship is under way. 25X1
Fifty additional roll-on/roll-off cargo ships--similar to
the eight Nevas or larger--are to be constructed in the
USSR or purchased from other countries.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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