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December 20, 2016
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November 2, 2006
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March 24, 1975
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Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 25X1 Top Secret National Intelligence Bulletin State Dept. review completed DIA review(s) completed. Top Secret 25X1 N2 657 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Release 200 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 CONTENTS SOUTH VIETNAM: Hue under siege. (Page 1) CAMBODIA: Clearance of rocket belt is key to continuation of ai ft. (Page 5) PORTUGAL: New cabinet expected to be announced this week. (Page 9) ARGENTINA: Strains within government. (Page 15) CHILE: Meeting on debt rescheduling postponed. (Page 16) VENEZUELA-MEXICO: Presidents propose meeting of Latin heads of state. (Page 18) MALAGASY REPUBLIC: General Andriamahazo asks US for arms. (Page 19 FOR THE RECORD: (Page 20) Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Relea Approved For Release 20 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 The city of Hue is now besieged. The deterioration of the northern defense :Line and the closing by the Com- munists of Route 1 south of the city have prompted the regional commander to"implement the final contingency plan for the defense of the city. Government forces in Thua Thien Province are being pulled back to tighten Hue's defensive perimeter, and a firm stand to save the former imperial capital has been ordered. With their overland escape routes c:Lose!d, the remaining government forces are compelled to fight. An estimated 50,000 peo- ple are awaiting sea transportation from the Hue area to Da Nang, and another 50,000 may be doubling back to the city because of Route 1 being closed. The province originally had a population of over 700,000. Elsewhere in the northern provinces, despite plum- meting morale and a mushrooming desertion rate, govern- ment forces are still protecting most major towns and a small strip of territory along the coast.. Territorial forces have surprised regional commanders by opening a stretch of Route 1 in southern Quang Ngai Province, where the Communists are strong. That strategic highway is now open from there to a point a few miles north of Da Nang. Meanwhile, pressure is building around the major cities on the central coast. Ground attacks and shellings near Qui Nhon in Binh Dinh Province may force units of the South Vietnamese 22nd Division to move from outlying northern districts to bolster Qui Nhon's defen- ses. Binh Dinh's westernmost district was abandoned over the weekend. The Communists are also pushing out of the mountains northwest of Nha Trang. A tank-led Communist force on Saturday overran a 22nd Division regiment charged with defending the Khanh Duong District capital. and is now face to face with the airborne brigade brought down from Da Nang. This enemy force is in a good position to out- flank the airborne unit and move directly toward Nha Trang. Government forces have been unable to open avenues of escape from the highland provinces, and the fate of large numbers of military personnel and civilians remains Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Rel National Intelligence Bulletin very much in doubt. March 24, 1975 The pressure on Tay Ninh continues to escalate. The concentration of three Communist divisions converging on the province has led some senior government commanders to question the wisdom of defending Tay Ninh. They argue that most of the population has already fled, that keep- ing access to the province open is extremely difficult, and that government forces there are heavily outnumbered. To the northeast of Saigon, Communist forces con- tinue to expand their holdings along Route 20--a key roadnet linking Saigon with the southern highlands. Sev- eral government units have been severely battered in Long Khanh and Binh Tuy provinces, and some airborne units of.Saigon's reserve have been sent to shore up the defenses of the provincial capital of Xuan Loc. in the delta, the mid-month flurry of Communist activity has all but subsided. North Vietnamese units are still clustered around several important government centers, but no major military action is now being con- ducted by either side. An important concern of the military hierarchy in the delta is the possibility that the South Vietnamese 7th Division might be redeployed to strengthen Saigon's defenses--a move that would weaken the government's already overextended regular forces in MR 4 by one third. Although there have been few large-scale Communist attacks or set battles during the past week, the impli- cations of the government's sudden withdrawals from the highlands and from north of Hue are causing anxiety and bitterness among much of the South Vietnamese population and grave doubts among many military leaders. pproved For Release 0 / 8 : - 975A02750001040-2 Approved For Release 2007 03/08: CIA-RDP79T00975 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 25X1 At the same time that criticism mounts against President Thieu, anti-Americanism is also threatening to reach serious proportions. Many South Vietnamese, from ordinary citizens to officers who have, cooperated with Americans over the years, believe that insufficient American materiel support is a key factor in last week's ominous events. Americans have been warned to keep a low profile in Nha Trang, administrative center of Mili- tary Region 2, which includes the highlands. Some South Vietnamese officers also report concern about growing animosity against their troops and the military estab- Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Releo Cambodia: Lower Mekong Tuol Leapt) e.-.ovelnme }t peration stalled Pose ions to beIS . b.gidoned Pos%tions abandoned e Banam Neak Wong River narrows Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 The US airlift into Cambodia, which was suspended following Communist rocket attacks on March 22, was re- sumed today. It could be interrupted again, however, if government operations to clear the "rocket belt" north- west of Pochentong airfield fail to suppress Communist rocket attacks. While there has been no significant increase in the number of rockets being fired on Pochen- tong, they are impacting more frequently on the opera- tional portion of the field. West of the capital, Communist attacks forced gov- ernment troops to abandon three battalion-size positions between Tuol Leap and Route 4 over the weekend and have temporarily disrupted the government operation to clear the rocket belt northeast of the town. Some Cambodian army units scheduled to participate in that operation have been diverted to retake the lost positions and close the gap in the government's defense line, which could pose an even more serious threat to Pochentong airfield and the Kantouk ammunition depots. One of the positions has been reoccupied. Meanwhile, intensified artillery and air strikes are being directed against Communist rocket launching position:; and will continue until gov- ernment forces stabilize the situation south of Tuol Leap and are freed to begin clearing operations. Elsewhere in the Phnom Penh area, government de- fenders north of the capital remain under steady Commu- nist pressure, but are holding their positions. East of the city, reinforced government operations succeeded in dislodging Communist troops which had again infil- trated to the riverbank opposite the capital. Farther upstream, the navy today plans to evacuate two positions. Government units yesterday abandoned a position along the Bassac River southeast of the capital. Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A027500010040-2 Approved For Rel se 2007/03/08 : CIA-RD 79T00975AO27500010040-2 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 Along the Mekong River, Communist forces are keeping the pressure on government defenders at Neak Luong and Banam with shelling and ground attacks. On March 22, the insurgents forced government troops to abandon an island opposite Banam, which will facilitate shelling attacks on the town. 25X1' Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA RDP79TOO9 0975 A02 7 5 0001 00 40- -2 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Release 20a National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 The new Portuguese cabinet that is expected to be announced early this week almost certainly will be more compatible with the radical views of Prime Minister Gon- calves than the two previous, moderately leftist cabi- nets. The Communist-dominated Democratic Movement, a sep- arate party, will probably :join the coalition of Social- ists, Communists, and Popular Democrats. It is widely rumored that each party will be given equal representa- tion and that the leader of each will be appointed a minister without portfolio. Socialist Party leader Mario Soares reportedly op- poses this arrangement, preferring to remain foreign minister. The Socialists also want Francisco Zenha to remain justice minister. Perhaps to bring additional pressure on the Socialists to conform, Goncalves con- sulted over the weekend with the leaders of two other leftwing parties that are known to have close associa- tions with the Communists. Whatever the makeup of the cabinet, the newly es- tablished Revolutionary Council will exercise the real power as the Armed Forces Movement's executive body. The addition over the weekend of four relatively mod- erate new members was tempered somewhat by the warning that they cannot participate fully as long as they hold their current jobs. One, Vitor Alves, is expected to become Portugal's next ambassador to the UN. The Revolutionary Council has assigned itself the power to make structural changes in the economy. This power presumably will enable the Council to set aside the moderate, three-year economic program that was ap- proved with great difficulty only a few months ago. Approval of the economic plan had been a trade-off for endorsement by the moderates of the law giving the Com- munists substantial control over the labor movement. Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A027500010040-2 Approved For Rele a 2007/03/08 : CIA-RD 79T00975A027500010040-2 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 Electoral violence, meanwhile, broke out again over the weekend in the northern city of Oporto. Popular Dem- ocrats chased extreme leftists, who broke up one of their rallies, into local Communist party headquarters. Police ended the fray, but not before the extremists had fired shots from the headquarters in response to stone-throw- ing by the crowd. The Social Democratic Center Party, the only center- right party still allowed to participate in the election, announced it will stay in the campaign, even though in- timidation has reached the point where its leaders no longer sleep at home. The Portuguese military also seems to be in dis- arr ay. The US defense attache reports that discipline within the ranks is practically non-existent. Any order that calls for a unit to move must come through more than one channel. leach air base has a sergeants' counci ; an order from the base commander to dispatch aircraft is not executed until the seargeants' council at the base receives verifica- tion from the sergeants' council in Lisbon. 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 25X6 Strains are growing within the Peronist movement as the government faces the bloodiest wave of political violence since President Peron assumed power last July. More than two dozen persons have been killed in recent days, and over a hundred arrested by police in an attempt to halt the occupation of factories by workers protesting the detention of left-wing trade union leaders. The leftists were rounded up last Thursday when Buenos Aires announced that it had uncovered a plot by an "anti- national minority" to paralyze key Argentine industries. Meanwhile, leaders in the Peronist-controlled labor movement, which forms the bulwark of Mrs. Peron's support, are maneuvering to gain greater influence in the govern- ment and to bring pressure on the President to remove her chief adviser, Welfare Minister Lopez Rega. A show- down may be postponed until early April, however, in order to preserve chances for a better margin of victory for the Peronists in the elections in Misiones Province. If Mrs. Peron does not make some of the compromises labor wants, she will probably find it joining the mili- tary in demanding major changes in her government to deal with deteriorating political and economic conditions. Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For R*Iease 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79TP National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 France, which chairs the Paris Club of Chile's cred- itors, has decided to postpone indefinitely a meeting on debt rescheduling that had been set to open today. Several Paris Club members, such as the UK, Italy, and the Netherlands, had indicated they would not attend the March meeting. They are reluctant for domestic po- litical reasons to appear to be cooperating with the Chilean military government, since it has been the sub- ject of widespread criticism for its treatment of left- ist political opponents. It had appeared that the meeting would be held with- out these countries when West Germany decided to attend, but France, citing the boycott by most Common Market mem- bers of the Paris Club, called it off. A high French official has told the US ambassador that President Gis- card did not want to risk criticism from the French left. Among those who would not have attended the meeting, only the UK is a major creditor of Chile. Failure to get a new rescheduling agreement would delay Santiago's efforts to cope with severe balance-of- payments strains engendered by low copper prices. More than a half of Chile's expected balance-of-payments deficit this year is accounted for by the $710 million due on its foreign debts. Santiago wants to reschedule a major portion of the $565 million due to members of the Paris Club this year. Cancellation of the March meeting could lessen the chances of obtaining some of this relief. Cancellation would force Chile to try to renegoti- ate these debts bilaterally. In the meantime, Santiago might simply default on amounts due to countries unwill- ing--for political reasons--to discuss rescheduling. The government would resort to default reluctantly, given its strong desire to improve Chile's credit standing. pproved For elease 2007/03 `~ 4 O 9T009t764627 0001'0646-2 Approved For Release 4 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 The Paris Club postponement could provide ammunition for attacks by some developing countries on normal credi- tor-debtor relationships. Some favor linking debt repay- ment schedules with export earnings, so that sharp de- clines in earnings would trigger automatic reductions in debt service obligations. Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP791~00975A027500010040-2 National Intelligence Bulletin VENEZUELA-MEXICO March 24, 1975 During their talks last week, Presidents Echeverria of Mexico and Perez of Venezuela called for a meeting of Latin heads of state to create an exclusively Latin Amer- ican economic organization. One press report said the meeting was to take place before May. The purpose of the proposed grouping, to be known as the Latin American Economic System, is to stimulate regional economic development. The cosponsors assert that it will not duplicate or replace similar organiza- tions already operating in the region. Among its broad aims are to: --promote economic development projects; --encourage Latin American multinational enter- prises; --defend prices and ensure markets for raw materials and manufactured goods; --improve the supply of food in the region; --promote scientific and technical cooperation; and --promote arrangements with other regional organi- zations, especially those in the Third World. Many governments will probably accept an invitation to join, but old rivalries, differing national interests, and a concern that the organization might lead to con- flict with the US will temper their commitments. More- over, many hemisphere governments do not yet fully under- stand exactly how the new organization would accomplish its goals, or what their role in the group would be. While in Mexico, President Perez played upon sever- al familiar themes: the need for Latin American unity; conservation of raw material resources, particularly petroleum; and better terms of trade for Latin exports to the US and other industrialized countries. pi ve~or e~ease""0`!/'i"'27'~Si711'04~- 25X1 Approved For Release 20+03/08 : CIA-RDP79T0 975AO27500010040-2 National Intelligence Bulletin Match 24, 1975 In one emotional speech, commemorating the 37th an- niversary of Mexico's expropriation of foreign oil com- panies, Perez took several thinly veiled swipes at the US. The tone of his remarks, which surprised even his Mexican hosts, apparently was intended primarily for po- litical effect at home, but they were meant to bolster his claim to Latin American leadership of the less de- veloped countries. 25X1 MALAGASY REPUBLIC The chairman of the country's 18-member ruling mil- itary directory, General Andriamahazo, has urgently re- quested the US to sell his country small arms and ammuni- tion. He and his directory colleagues are concerned for their personal safety and anticipate violence during the trials--which began Friday---of police personnel and ci- vilian politicians accused of involvement in the uprising last month. The arms requested would strengthen General Andri- mahazo's hand in dealing with youthful radicals on the military directory who are pressing for the removal of the NASA tracking station near Tananarive unless the US agrees to pay a much higher rent for it. 25X1 -19- 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Approved For Rele se 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79 00975AO27500010040-2 National Intelligence Bulletin March 24, 1975 Hungary: The Hungarian party congress that ended on Saturday reaffirmed the leadership and moderate policies of party chief Janos Kadar. Lajos Feher and Rezso Nyers, advocates of economic reform who lost polit- ical ground a year ago, were removed from the Politburo, as was Gyula Kallai, a conservative who had a reputation for high living. The election of the four new Politburo members does not appear to alter the political balance in the top leadership. Speeches during the congress reiterated Budapest's moderate policies, but left little doubt that the regime is still committed to improving central economic controls and to increasing attention to ideology in the media and culture. 1pr'6 "F `"Fl a'sd-2WM3?W?' "A' F t ` O97' 27500070040" S'Aecr vcd For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2 Top Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO27500010040-2