NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027700010038-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: May 22, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin .
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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May 22, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
CONTENTS
LAOS: No significant change in
situation in Vientiane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
PORTUGAL: Socialists rally to protest
newspaper seizure attempt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SPAIN-MOROCCO: Madrid strengthens
forces in Spanish Sahara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
IRAN: Religious extremists claim
responsibility for assassinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
VIETNAM: Communists may adopt tougher
line toward former officials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
FRANCE: Giscard to attend NATO
dinner but not talks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
BOLIVIA: Banzer pushes tough
campaign against Gulf Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
URUGUAY: Another dispute between
President and military . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
EC: French franc may
return to joint float . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
FOR THE RECORD: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
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Predominantly Comm niii-tonfrafed area.
February I r3 eeeeelire
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
There had been no significant change in the situation in Vientiane as of this
morning. An estimated 200-300 demonstrators yesterday continued their
occupation of the principal USAID facilities in and around the Lao capital. A small
number of Pathet Lao troops from Vientiane's joint military security force also
continued to control access to a large American residential housing complex in the
suburbs.
US observers described the atmosphere in Vientiane as "raucous but not
menacing," and said that American newsmen and others at the demonstration sites
were being treated in a "friendly fashion." No Americans have been harmed. At the
main AID compound, two US Marine guards and a US contract employee remain
barricaded inside an office building.
Members of the "neutralized" city's joint police force today arrested two
demonstrators trying to break into a building at the main compound, but are still
making no effort to disperse the demonstrators. Communist officials reportedly
visited the compound and talked with the protesters today and yesterday.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
In discussing upcoming negotiations on continued US aid, Foreign Minister
Phoumi Vongvichit said the coalition should receive all aid directly. He added,
however, that a limited number of US technical experts would be allowed to oversee
the administration of the aid and to account for it.
Meanwhile, the 12 Americans that have been under "voluntary" house arrest
by demonstrators in Savannakhet for nearly a week are reported to be safe, and their
release is expected shortly. Neutralist Interior Minister Pheng Phongsavan and his
Pathet Lao deputy Deuane Sonnarath were scheduled to fly to Savannakhet
yesterday to sign an agreement with the demonstrators calling for the
"neutralization" of Savannakhet and the release of the American hostages. The
Americans will then accompany Pheng and Deuane back to Vientiane.
The Pathet Lao are continuing to tighten their grip on the coalition
government. Pathet Lao Deputy Interior Minister Deuane Sonnarath and his
communist colleague, Information Minister Souk Vongsak, have announced
sweeping personnel changes in their respective ministries which effectively remove
nearly a dozen non-communist officials from sensitive security, propaganda, and
news media positions. Most will probably be replaced by Pathet Lao personnel or
communist sympathizers.
The Pathet Lao, under the authority of Vientiane's joint police force, have also
announced stringent new regulations governing domestic and foreign travel by both
Lao citizens and foreigners, and all Chinese, Vietnamese, and Cambodians have been
flatly prohibited from leaving the country
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
The Portuguese Socialist Party has scheduled mass rallies tonight in Lisbon and
other cities to demonstrate its outrage over the Communist attempt to take over its
newspaper.
A party leader told Ambassador Carlucci yesterday that the Socialists hope to
draw 100,000 or more to the Lisbon rally, which they hope-but cannot
guarantee-will be peaceful. A rally that large would put a severe strain on the
security forces, especially in view of the declining morale and authority in the armed
forces. Any violence could quickly get out of hand. ..
Socialist leaders have declared their intention to draw the line on the issue of
the newspaper seizure. They appear prepared to pull out all stops to oppose the
Communists and to press the government to resolve the dispute in their favor.
Party leader Mario Soares told President Costa Gomes on Tuesday that Socialist
cabinet ministers will boycott government meetings until the paper is reopened and
will withdraw from the coalition government if it is not returned to Socialist
editorial control. Soares warned the President that if the Communists succeed in
getting the Socialists out of the government, Costa Gomes himself will also soon be
out.
In Angola
The military leaders in Lisbon, meanwhile, are seriously concerned that the
deteriorating situation in Angola may mean a major setback to their policy of
decolonization in Africa-the only policy area in which they have been able to claim
significant success.
A breakdown in Angola could indeed have political repercussions in Portugal.
Several leaders of the Armed Forces Movement have been closely linked to the
decolonization policy and will suffer politically if the Angolan agreement falls apart.
Admiral Rosa Coutinho, the rising star of the Revolutionary Council, headed the
governing junta in Angola when the independence agreement was negotiated. He, as
well as other Movement leaders, is already casting about for scapegoats. Some are
blaming "international imperialism."
Foreign Minister Antunes said after a visit to Angola last week that Portugal is
honor bound to guarantee an orderly settlement in Angola, even if it means the use
of Portuguese troops. The question of using Portuguese troops in Angola is already
becoming a divisive issue in Lisbon.
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SPANI
SAHAI
MAURITANIA
*Neuskchod
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CANARY ISLANDS
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 22, 1975
Spanish military sources have reported the movement last week of several army
units from the Canary Islands to El Aaiun, the provincial capital of Spanish Sahara,
located some 30 miles from the Moroccan border.
The US defense attache in Madrid believes some of the troops have been
transferred to replace the 250 or so Saharans who have either deserted or were
demobilized last week because of questionable loyalty. The moves also probably
reflect Spain's desire to strengthen its forces in response to recent Moroccan
provocations, including an upsurge of small-scale guerrilla operations.
The Spanish reportedly flew two parachute companies, plus two battalions of
infantry and marines, to El Aaiun on May 13. Two barges loaded with 300 napalm
bombs also are said to have embarked for El Aaiun that same day. On May 14, a
mountain artillery group consisting of three batteries of four 105-mm. cannons left
for El Aaiun, and additional materiel reportedly is being readied for shipment.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
The assassination Wednesday of two members of the US military advisory
group in Iran was apparently the work of an extremist religious group, the People's
Strugglers. An anonymous caller to the US embassy claimed credit for the group,
adding that the officers were the first of nine American officials marked for
assassination in retaliation for the deaths of nine imprisoned terrorists shot last
month by police during an alleged escape attempt.
At least one other US military officer was under surveillance by unknown
persons for several days prior to yesterday's attack.
The embassy believes the attack was designed to embarrass the regime on the
day that the Shah returned from his heavily publicized visit to the US. The
assassinations also came within days of anniversaries of attacks on two other US
military advisers in 1,972 and 1973.
The People's Strugglers essentially represent ultraconservative religious
elements in Iran who deplore the growth of Western, non-Muslim influences and the
diminished power of traditional religious leaders that has resulted from the Shah's
program of land and social reform. They regard the Shah as a "tool of foreign
interests."
The influx of foreigners associated with Iran's industrialization has aggravated
these feelings. The US community in Iran numbers over 16,000 and is expected to
grow to 50,000 by 1980.
The Strugglers draw sympathy and financial support from certain religious
centers in Iran and from bazaar merchants. Money reportedly is funneled to the
terrorists through an exiled religious leader who has been living in Baghdad since
1963. I n the past, the movement has received support from Iraq and probably some
training from Palestinian guerrilla groups.
The Strugglers have, in concert with a radical Marxist terrorist group, carried
out at least seven political assassinations in Iran since last August. Most of the
victims have been security officials. A security informer reportedly was killed on
Tuesday by the Marxist group. Efforts by Iran's security organizations to combat
the terrorists have resulted in the slaying of some 14 alleged terrorists since March
and the arrest of scores.
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May 22,.1975
These terrorist operations demonstrate the increased professionalism of the
dissidents and the inability of Iranian security forces wholly to prevent individually
targeted assassinations. The terrorists have not generated public support, and the
attack on the US citizens probably does not indicate a. change in the generally
favorable public sentiment toward American military aid to Iran or Americans in
general.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
The communist authorities in Saigon may be adopting a tougher position
regarding reprisals against former government officers.
According to the press, the new Liberation Daily in Saigon reports that a
"popular movement" has developed "to pursue the wicked elements who were
servants of Americans and their puppet Saigon government." The article, which is
not yet available in Washington, reportedly indicates that some reprisals are in store
for former officials and some people who worked for the US government, but it is
not yet clear how severe these reprisals are to be.
This would represent a substantial change in the communists' public policy
toward officers of the former government. Until now, the communists have been
emphasizing that they would be lenient with all supporters of the former
government who cooperate fully with the new regime.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
French President Giscard announced yesterday that he has accepted the
invitation of Belgian King Baudouin to attend the dinner to be held for the heads of
government participating in the NATO summit in Brussels on May 29 and 30.
France, however, will still be represented at the talks by Foreign Minister
Sauvagnargues.
Paris has argued against the NATO summit on the grounds that the Alliance's
internal problems were fully covered at the meeting in Ottawa last summer. French
officials assert that most problems currently facing NATO fall outside the purview
of the Alliance. Another argument advanced by the French contends that a NATO
summit will add to the "bloc confrontation" atmosphere at the European security
conference summit that will probably take place sometime this year.
By treating the NATO summit as "just another ministerial" meeting but by
attending the informal dinner himself, Giscard will be able to assure domestic
opponents of NATO that he remains unflinching in his opposition to the summit
while r anina the benefits of consulting with other national leaders
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
President Banzer is trying to cash in on growing nationalistic sentiment against
Gulf Oil by pushing a tough campaign against the company.
On Tuesday, the government arrested Gulf's representative in La Paz and
"criminal proceedings" were begun against him, the company, and its US chairman.
The Bolivian ambassador in Washington requested State Department cooperation in
eliciting full details on the company's admission that in the 1960s it had made
"political contributions" to political supporters of former president Rene
Barrientos.
Banzer's aides are telling US officials that "serious" political repercussionswill
result from the Gulf Oil disclosures unless the names of those involved are revealed
and legal proceedings against them begun. There were initial indications that
students, junior officers, and opposition leaders might seize upon the controversy as
a means of attacking Banzer on the broader issue of corruption in government. More
recently, however, this threat has been superseded by an outpouring of public
indignation against the oil company-particularly its implication of the late General
Barrientos, one of the country's few national heroes.
Banzer, with no durable political base, has repeatedly had to deal with
conspiracies and coup attempts against his regime. He now sees an opportunity to
undercut his opponents and gain popular support by defending "national dignity"
and attacking one of the favorite targets in Latin America-the multinational
corporation.
The Bolivian government still owes Gulf Oil over $50 million as
indemnification for oil installations nationalized in 1969. La Paz, allegedly because
of growing public pressure, is threatening to suspend indemnity payments until the
company fully clarifies its allegations. Since the payments are actually made by
Argentine purchasers of Bolivian oil and gas and go directly into a New York bank
trust account, Banzer's threats may be empty, however effective they are for
domestic consumption.
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 22, 1975
The Uruguayan political scene has been thrown into even greater confusion by
another dispute between President Bordaberry and army generals.
Frequent high-level flare-ups have occurred since the military began to exercise
a major policy role in early 1973, in large part because lines of executive authority
have remained unclear. Although the military and Bordaberry realize that they need
each other, they have. not been able to agree on who will exercise ultimate authority.
This latent conflict has been evident in recent bickering between Bordaberry and
certain army generals over economic policy issues.
The current disputer has been provoked by two separate incidents. Earlier this
month, 'a military commission arrested a top economic aide for publishing an
unauthorized article and detained him after the President had ordered his release. In
another incident, the military high command reportedly reinstated the head of the
national beef institute, whom Bordaberry had fired earlier this week.
To add to the complexity of the situation, the politically ambitious army
commander Gregorio Alvarez is apparently attempting to exploit the
military - Bordaberry split for his own ends. Earlier this month, Alvarez probably
antagonized other generals and, perhaps, Bordaberry when he sponsored a public
rally during which he stated that the military should become more active in
promoting economic integration.
Bordaberry's job probably is not in jeopardy right now. Further clashes,
however, are likely as the two sides attempt to decide whether to permit an election
in 1976 and whether to retain a facade of civilian leadership after Bordaberry's term
expires.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
EC finance ministers yesterday discussed the return of the French franc to the
European joint float and the funding of the Community's planned common-lending
facility. The ministers decided to have EC central bankers discuss terms of the
franc's reentry in an attempt to reach agreement in time fora formal decision at the
finance ministers' meeting on June 16. They were able to put off a decision on
activating the lending facility because, as yet, no EC member has formally requested
a loan from it.
Paris reportedly proposed that several changes in the operation of the European
joint float should be discussed before the franc reenters:
--The setting of a target zone within which the Europeans would seek to
maintain a relationship with the dollar.
--A change in the settlement terms for currency intervention.
--A greater sharing of the intervention burden by the member countries with
strong currencies.
Many EC members, including West Germany and the UK, quickly branded the
idea of a return to fixed parities with the dollar as unacceptable at this time,
particularly without prior consultation with the US. France and the other members,
however, appeared willing to compromise on the other points.
One of Paris' objectives apparently is to get agreement on a concerted
intervention policy regarding the dollar. When the French withdrew from the
currency bloc 15 months ago, Paris was intervening in an attempt to maintain parity
with the relatively strong West German mark. Bonn was exacerbating Paris' problems
by intervening in dollars to strengthen the mark against the dollar. The French
would obviously like to avoid a recurrence of that situation and probably want a
pledge that dollar intervention policies be coordinated among joint-float members.
French President Giscard's decision to rejoin the European float was a political
move intended as a sign that France wants to relaunch the drive toward financial and
monetary integration. French economic officials were not consulted prior to the
decision, and some have expressed strong reservations, arguing that the action is
premature. Having committed himself, Giscard cannot easily pull out. The Germans
presumably would be pleased if French involvement in the float forced Paris to hold
more vigorously to its stabilization and anti-inflationary policies.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 22, 1975
Even though members have been loath to borrow from the common-lending
facility because such a move would be taken as a sign of weakness by financial
markets, the EC will continue to seek new commitments from OPEC members. Last
month, the Venezuelans pledged $300 million to the Community, but it is not
known whether Caracas will be willing to maintain that pledge without a firm date
for the lending facility's activation.
LEBANON: Sporadic fighting continued in Beirut yesterday, despite the
success of government security forces in limiting the clashes to a small area and calls
for restraint by fedayeen and Phalangist leaders. The city was calmed somewhat by a
partially effective general strike, but both sides continued to make preparations for a
return to the streets in force if the situation should deteriorate. President Franjiyah
formally launched his effort to find a new prime minister by consulting with leaders
of several of the country's political and religious blocs.
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