NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027900010024-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: July 15, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
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Ju y 15, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 15, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Popular Democrats may
withdraw from coalition this week . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
ANGOLA: MPLA leader Neto
reportedly ousted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
CSCE: Summit set for July 30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
FRANCE-USSR: Moscow disappointed
with Giscard's foreign policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
SPAIN - SPANISH SAHARA: Madrid's efforts
to settle dispute being frustrated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
ETHIOPIA: Americans
seized by insurgents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Resolution calls
for Israeli expulsion from UN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
INDIA: Supreme Court to begin hearings
in August on Mrs. Gandhi's appeal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
ARGENTINA: Efforts to oust
Lopez Rega from power continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
LAOS: Thorny issues remain
in US-Lao relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 15, 1975
The Portuguese Armed Forces General Assembly session scheduled for today
has been put off until Friday, possibly because of the likely departure of the
center-left Popular Democrats from the coalition government tomorrow.
According to Popular Democratic leader Balsemao, party head Guerreiro was
told yesterday by Prime Minister Goncalves that the government will not accept the
conditions presented to President Costa Gomes last Friday by the Popular
Democrats. The conditions, which Guerreiro said would determine whether or not
the Popular Democrats would withdraw from the government, included guarantees
for a free press, municipal elections, and Movement support for the
moderate-dominated constituent assembly. Balsemao is convinced that Costa
Gomes-after consultation with the Revolutionary Council-will reject the proposals
when party leaders meet with him tomorrow, leaving the Popular Democrats no
choice but to pull out of the government.
A withdrawal by the Popular Democrats-less than one week after the Socialists
pulled out-could promp military leaders to dissolve the remains of the coalition
government rather than continue with only Communist support. One left-wing
splinter party usually sympathetic to the Communists has called for the formation
of a "noncoalition revolutionary government" without nonpartisan civilian
participation. This concept might appeal to the Movement as a complementary
structure for their planned pyramid of popular assemblies. Another option would be
simply to appoint an all-military government.
The outspoken opposition to these "direct links" with the people through
"popular assemblies" appears to be aggravating divisions within the military and has
generated efforts to reassure the people that the military does not intend to assume
dictatorial powers.
In a televised discussion on Sunday that was characterized as "defensive" by
the Communist-dominated press, four Revolutionary Council members said that the
plan is not definitive and needs further discussion. They said the plan was designed
to increase political participation by the people and would proceed at a pace
determined by popular will.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 15, 1975
According to press reports from Zaire, Agostinho Neto, president of the
Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, has been deposed by Mito Alves, a
top military commander of the Movement who has consistently pushed for a tough
military campaign against the National Front for the Liberation of Angola. This
report comes as heavy fighting resumed in Luanda between the two liberation
groups. Last night, however, Lisbon radio reported that Neto led a delegation from
the Popular Movement to a meeting with Portuguese Foreign Minister Antunes.
We cannot confirm that Neto has been deposed, but the intensity of the
Popular Movement's current military campaign is consistent with the tough line
advocated by Major Alves. Alves appears to be in full command of the campaign.
According to the US consul in Luanda, the Movement is well along in its effort
to drive the National Front out of the city. A number of senior Front officials
reportedly have fled to Zaire.
Lisbon's alarm over the deteriorating situation in Angola was reflected in the
sudden departure of Antunes for Luanda on Sunday. Antunes, a key moderate, has
been playing a central role in the power struggle taking place in the Portuguese
capital. The prestige of Portugal's military leaders rests heavily upon the success of
its decolonialization policy, now threatened by the renewed fighting and the
growing tide of Portuguese refugees.
Antunes said that Lisbon had "reached its limit" in efforts to bring peace to
Angola and that it might now seek intervention by some international body. While
not blaming any Angolan faction, Antunes promised that Portuguese forces would
play a more energetic role in restoring order. The US consul reported last night that
two companies of Portuguese commandos have been ordered into the center of
Luanda to restore order.
If the Portuguese do not step in, the Popular Movement's offensive may well
defeat the National Front. It would then probably be only a matter of time before
the Movement proceeded against the National Union for the Total Independence of
Angola, the third of the territory's liberation groups. Reports now reaching Luanda,
in fact, indicate that the Movement did attack two small garrisons of the National
Union on Sunday.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 15, 1975
Agreement was reached yesterday at the European security conference to
accept a Canadian proposal setting July 30 as the opening date for a Helsinki
summit.
The decision was made possible when NATO and the Warsaw Pact bowed to
Malta's demand that the final document include a call for the eventual reduction of
armed forces in the Mediterranean region.
During yesterday's session, final agreement was also reached on language
concerning follow-on procedures for the conference and a clause protecting Allied
rights in Berlin and Germany.
The Canadian proposal sets today as the deadline for resolving all remaining
issues, but negotiations-primarily concerning confidence-building measures-will
probably be extended for several days. If final agreement is not reached in time to
convene a July 30 summit-which is the last time the Finns could hold it until the
fall-the conference will assume Finland's costs. Pre arations were begun in Helsinki
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 15, 1975
French Foreign Ministry officials recently admitted to the US embassy that the
USSR seems disappointed with President Giscard's foreign policy. The French
officials are hopeful, however, that Giscard's trip to Moscow next October will clear
the air, and they are not worried about adverse effects on bilateral relations.
The most recent manifestation of a "chill" in French-Soviet relations is the
vitriolic attack on French Minister of the Interior Poniatowski which the Soviet
news agency Tass carried last week. Poniatowski was condemned for claiming that
the alleged Ponomarev document recently published in a French newspaper was not
a fraud, as claimed by the French Communist Party, but a Soviet guideline for
seizures of power by Communist parties.
Moscow could hardly have ignored Poniatowski's remarks, in view of its strong
protestations that the "Ponomarev document" was a forgery trumped up by the
Portuguese Socialists to discredit the Soviets and the Portuguese Communists. The
French, we believe, are nevertheless correct when they assume that the Soviet attack
on Giscard's closest political associate was also a thinly veiled signal from Moscow to
the French President on other issues. One high-ranking official of the Foreign
Ministry believes the Soviets have found Giscard too European and Atlanticist.
The official believes that Moscow is particularly concerned about the
possibility of a secret agreement between Paris and Bonn that would allow French
Pluton tactical nuclear missiles to be stationed in West Germany. The Soviets fear
that an agreement on Pluton could enhance the prospects for an independent
European defense, to which the USSR is strongly opposed. Moscow may have
viewed its blast at Poniatowski as an opportunity to weigh in with Giscard prior to
the French - West German summit meeting at the end of this month.
Paris and Bonn continue to deny that there are plans for stationing Plutons in
West Germany, but the French and West German military planners are probably
examining use of the Pluton in the event of hostilities.
Giscard has already demonstrated an awareness of the Soviet concerns in this
area. In May, he sympathized with Soviet fears of an independent European defense
arrangement and asserted that the problem should not be addressed until more
political unification has been achieved. His statement was widely criticized in France
as a concession to the Soviets.
French-Soviet relations have suffered other, more minor irritants in the past
two months. According to French officials, the irritants include Giscard's
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 15, 1975
termination of V-E Day celebrations in France and his visit to Poland in mid-June.
The Soviets faulted Giscard for not defending the USSR in the face of several strong
attacks against the USSR that Chinese Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping made during his
visit to Paris in mid-May.
We also have reason to believe that French-Soviet economic relations are not
proceeding as smoothly as Paris had expected, despite Finance Minister Fourcade's
"successful" trip to Moscow last week. In March, Paris had predicted orders of $2.5
billion from the USSR this year; so far, according to the Paris daily Le Figaro, firm
orders amount to less than $14 million.
The discrepancy probably is caused in part by overoptimism on the part of
French businessmen. It may also reflect Soviet delay while the USSR "digests" the
flood of goods it ordered at the end of last year in order to profit from
rates that expired on December 31.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 15, 1975
SPAIN - SPANISH SAHARA
Madrid's efforts to settle the dispute over the future of Spanish Sahara are
being frustrated by the delaying tactics of Morocco and Mauritania over a
four-power conference and by renewed violence in the territory.
Spain's inability to persuade Morocco, Algeria, and Mauritania to attend a
conference in Madrid on July 9 has led the Spanish government to instruct its UN
representative to urge Secretary General Waldheim to convoke four-power talks on
Spanish Sahara under his auspices. Spanish officials hope that direct UN involvement
in the dispute will deter the three powers from engaging in aggressive actions against
the Sahara while talks are in progress.
The three African states may be no more responsive to a request by the UN
secretary general than they were to Spain's earlier invitation to meet in Madrid.
Rabat is likely to be opposed, probably citing the pending decision by the
International Court of Justice expected in October. Mauritania will probably
straddle the fence and simply not reply. The Algerians are likely to favor the
conference. If action is not forthcoming and violence continues, Madrid is likely
again to threaten unilateral withdrawal from Spanish Sahara.
Meanwhile, there was renewed violence in Spanish Sahara over the weekend.
Three policemen in El Aaiun, the Saharan capital, were killed and a fourth seriously
injured by a bomb allegedly planted by followers of the pro-independence Polisario
Front backed by Algiers. In another incident, the son of the leader of the
Spanish-backed Saharan National Union Party was killed when a bomb demolished a
car. According to press reports, police arrested more than 150 persons in El Aaiun
suspected of supporting the Polisario Front.
These bombings, and a statement issued on July 7 by a Polisario Front
representative in Paris demanding self-determination, cast further doubt on the
recent statement by Morocco and Algeria that they had reached an understanding on
the future of Spanish Sahara. This understanding would envisage partition of the
disputed territory between Morocco an 11-1 uritania without recourse to a
referendum.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 15, 1975
Armed insurgents believed to be members of the Popular Liberation Forces
faction of the Eritrean insurgent movement today seized two US and three
Ethiopian civilian employees of the naval communications unit at Asmara. The five
were taken from the transmitter site, located about eight miles southwest of the city
near the airport.
Although there have been several isolated incidents over a period of years
involving seizure of US nationals by the rebels, this represents the first apparent
deliberate attempt to kidnap Americans from the communications facility. There
had been some concern, following the US decision to resupply the Ethiopian armed
forces with ammunition, that the rebels would take anti-US reprisals. Since the
resupply was completed some two months ago, however, this action would seem to
be belated, or it could represent a change in the general hands-off policy concerning
Americans.
There are some 50 to 60 Americans remaining in Asmara, including 40 military
and civilian personnel with the naval communications unit and about 5 persons
assigned to the consulate.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 15, 1975
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam has introduced, at the Islamic foreign
ministers' conference in Jidda, a draft resolution calling for the suspension of Israel
from the UN General Assembly. Citing Israeli failure to implement UN resolutions,
the draft resolution called for Israel to be barred as well from all international
conferences under UN auspices.
The Saudi chairman of the conference reportedly managed to keep the
resolution off the agenda, but no Arab country will openly oppose the resolution if
it comes to a vote.
Khaddam told Ambassador Murphy late last week that the Syrian intention is
to prepare "the international atmosphere" for possible future action in New York if
there are no "positive results" from the diplomatic exchanges now under way. He
emphasized that "a successful negotiation affecting one front only does not change
matters at all and it will only prompt us to take further action to isolate Israel." He
indicated that Syria would make a judgment by early August on the extent of
progress.
Khaddam complained bitterly to Ambassador Murphy about recent Israeli
declarations that they would never withdraw from the Golan Heights.
This latest move by Damascus stems from Syrian fears that progress toward a
further Sinai disengagement will make any agreement on the Golan Heights
increasingly difficult. An editorial in the Damascus daily Al-Thawra of July 12 says
that the Arabs have gone too far in their desire for a political settlement and have
sacrificed time needlessly. The editorial, described by the embassy as having
overtones of official inspiration, calls for the re-evaluation of the results of the
policy pursuing a settlement through political activity and cites the need for the
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July 15, 1975
The Indian Supreme Court yesterday set August 11 as the date to begin hearing
oral arguments on Prime Minister Gandhi's appeal of her recent conviction for
corrupt election practices in 1971.
The final decision probably will not be reached until late summer or early fall.
In the interim, Mrs. Gandhi can continue to function as Prime Minister but not vote
in parliament, which is to reconvene next Monday for a week or two.
Even if the court rules against Mrs. Gandhi, she may well remain in office. She
could, for instance, have the election commissioner, whom she appointed, lift the
penalty attached to her conviction, which calls for her exclusion from public office
for six years.
Information on both the parliamentary session and the court case will be scarce
in coming weeks. Media coverage of both events is now proscribed, as are statements
by representatives of any of the 26 extremist organizations banned on July 4. The
government has tightened censorship regulations, and there appears to be increasing
likelihood that several more foreign correspondents will be expelled.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 15, 1975
The opponents of controversial presidential adviser Lopez Rega, who was
ousted last week from two official posts, are continuing their efforts to assure his
complete removal from government.
The former minister yesterday was accused of masterminding the Argentine
Anti-Communist Alliance, which reportedly has engaged in right-wing political
assassinations. The charge grows out of an army investigation. Late last week, a
member of congress called for Lopez Rega's impeachment on similar grounds.
Lopez Rega has long been thought to be behind the Alliance; few persons,
however, have dared to accuse him, even indirectly, for fear of violent retaliation.
The formal charge seems designed to ensure that recent success in forcing Lopez
Rega out of his two important posts-welfare minister and presidential private
secretary-is not reversed. Moreover, his opponents seek to make it as difficult as
possible for him to influence remaining government officials identified with him.The
accusation will also increase the pressure on the President not to continue to rely on
him in any fashion.
Pressure on Mrs. Peron is also emanating from members of her party, long
dissatisfied with her for excluding them from decision-making and for allowing the
party hierarchy to wither. Some dissidents reportedly are seeking to oust Mrs. Peron
as the party's chief by electing new leaders.
The dissidents were apparently emboldened by last week's action against Lopez
Rega, the man responsible for the exclusion of party leaders from the inner circle.
Two of the Peronist movement's top leaders have already quit their party positions
in protest.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 15, 1975
The Lao agreed yesterday to return the USIS warehouse in Vientiane to US
control, but a number of thornier issues remain unresolved.
Demonstrators and police, for example, still occupy two US compounds in the
capital, and Lao officials are still refusing to return non-USAID property seized by
demonstrators. The US charge failed to make any headway in discussing these
problems with Foreign Ministry officials or with Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma
late last week. Efforts to resolve salary demands by national airline employees
affected by the termination of AID contracts also remain deadlocked.
The return of the USIS warehouse closely follows the arrival in Vientiane of
hard-line replacements for the three "moderate" communist ministers recently
placed on sick leave. The most important of the new officials, acting deputy prime
minister and foreign minister Phoune Sipraseuth, apparently slipped into Vientiane
with little fanfare last week. Soon after his arrival the Foreign Ministry officially
communicated the government's desire to begin new aid negotiations with the US.
The US embassy has made it clear on several occasions that it would not
address such questions until the problems resulting from the dissolution of AID had
been resolved. To date, Lao authorities have made no public or private comments on
US Congressional actions to prohibit any further US assistance
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