NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027900010028-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: July 17, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 17, 1975
CONTENTS
EGYPT-ISRAEL: Cairo takes harder
line on presence of UN forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
TURKEY-US: Base
negotiations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
CANADA: Trade measures
to be considered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BURMA: Fighting between army
and communist insurgents continues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
JAPAN: Bomb thrown
at Crown Prince . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 17, 1975
Egyptian officials now seem to be taking a somewhat harder line on what Cairo
will require to permit the continued presence of UN forces in the Sinai beyond July
24, when their mandate expires.
In announcing Egypt's decision on Tuesday not to extend the mandate,
Foreign Minister Fahmi had implied that Egypt might not object if the UN Security
Council extended it without explicit Egyptian approval. Later statements by Fahmi
and other officials, however, indicate that Egypt may insist on some new substantive
action by the Security Council.
At his press conference on Tuesday, Fahmi suggested obliquely that economic
or other sanctions might be involved against Israel. The Egyptians may insist that the
imposition of sanctions-which they could interpret as tangible pressure on Israel to
"implement" a withdrawal-is the only Security Council action that would induce
them to permit continuation of the UN presence in Sinai.
Fahmi himself took a more categorical position in a statement issued yesterday
in response to Israel's request for a six-month extension. Using language that left less
room for flexibility than anything he said on Tuesday, he labeled the Israeli request
ridiculous unless it implied that a withdrawal would precede the UN extension. For
now, Fahmi declared, the UN forces "are stationed on Egyptian territory and cannot
remain without the approval of the Egyptian government."
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Tel Aviv has so far continued to take a low-key approach in reacting to the
Egyptian statements. Prime Minister Rabin's handling of the issue in the Knesset
yesterday was restrained, and he reiterated Israel's determination to continue to seek
another interim agreement with Egypt.
Rabin referred briefly to Cairo's recent statements concerning the UN mandate
extension in the course of his response to an opposition motion to debate the status
of the current indirect negotiations with Egypt. He reminded his listeners that
Israel's adherence to the January 1974 disengagement agreement is based on
reciprocal Egyptian adherence. Characterizing the UN force as an "integral" part of
that agreement, the Prime Minister called on Cairo to continue to respect the
existence and authority of the force if it wants to preserve the agreement. He
warned that "whoever" wants the current negotiations to continue "in an
appropriate atmosphere" should refrain from any action that might increase tension.
Several Knesset members told a US embassy official yesterday they saw in the
government's reaction a veiled warning that, inasmuch as responsibility for observing
the disengagement agreement rests with both sides, Cairo should not expect Israel to
honor it if Egypt does not keep its end of the bargain.
The Israeli press continues to emphasize that Cairo's pressure tactics will not
stampede Tel Aviv into concluding a new interim agreement. Commentators are
emphasizing that there may be an element of bluff in the Egyptian position; one of
Israel's largest dailies editorialized yesterday that only "fools" would take seriously
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 17, 1975
The Turkish National Security Council's recommendations announced
yesterday appear to give Prime Minister Demirel some flexibility to hold off on
moves against US facilities if the US arms embargo is not lifted by today. The
council recommended that the government immediately initiate negotiations with
the US and "apply measures whenever it finds them appropriate."
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 17, 1975
Ottawa is considering ways to improve Canada's international trade position.
The key measure being considered is a scheme to provide inflation insurance to
exporters of manufactured goods. Under this program, Canadian firms would be at
least partly reimbursed for cost increases incurred after export contracts are
negotiated.
If adopted, the move would strengthen the competitive position of Canadian
manufacturers by allowing them to bid at fixed prices. Canadian firms argue that
they need help because soaring wage costs have impaired their ability to compete
with US and other foreign firms. The wage spiral has already pushed hourly wage
rates in many Canadian industries above US levels, a marked change from the early
1970s when Canadian firms enjoyed a wage advantage of 10-15 percent.
Ottawa is concerned that its loss of competitiveness will make it difficult to
reduce its large trade deficit. During the first three months of this year, the deficit
ran at an annual rate of $2.7 billion. The usual large deficit for autos and other
manufactured goods increased to a yearly rate of $8.9 billion, up $1 billion from last
year. Part of the swing reflects Canada's weakened position in the US market.
The trade deficit has resulted in considerable downward pressure on the
Canadian dollar, but the Trudeau government has been reluctant to let its currency
depreciate too far, for fear of aggravating domestic inflation. During the past year,
the Canadian dollar has depreciated 6 percent relative to the US dollar. In recent
months, Ottawa has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to cushion the
slide. The Central Bpnk sold about $590 million thus far in 1975 in support of
the Canadian dollar.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 17, 1975
Fighting is continuing between the army and communist insurgents in
northeastern Burma. The action began last month when communist units moved
across the Salween River and attempted to establish a foothold to the west of their
normal operating area.
Despite government claims that the army had driven the insurgents back,
communist troops apparently are still operating west of the river. As a diversionary
tactic, they have staged attacks on government outposts to the north, near the China
border. Small communist demolition teams have penetrated much farther west and
have been interdicting roads and disrupting government operations near Kyaukme.
The insurgents have made only minor gains, and the army may eventually push
them back again. During the past year and a half, the army has been able to block
several efforts by the communists to expand their base in eastern Shan State.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 17, 1975
A terrorist threw an explosive device at Japanese Crown Prince Akihito today
in Okinawa, the site of the International Oceanic Exposition-Expo 75-but the
Prince escaped uninjured. The attack was almost certainly the work of radical
leftists, out to dramatize opposition to US bases in Okinawa and embarrass the
Japanese government.
Five terrorist incidents have occurred in Tokyo since July 12. Few instigators
were directly involved, however, and no substantial injuries or damage resulted. The
incidents were considered a prelude to the terrorism by ultraradical groups expected
during Expo 75 and the visit to Okinawa by the Crown Prince.
Tight security precautions are being implemented, including attempts to keep
radicals under close scrutiny. About 2,500 specially trained Japanese riot police will
be sent to Okinawa to deal with violence.
Japanese officials view the situation in Okinawa as delicate. The strong feelings
against both Japan and the US bases on the islands could be aggravated by an
incident involving American forces.
The incidents at Expo 75 may give some measure of the ultraleft's for executing anti-US or antigovernment actions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 17, 1975
ISLAMIC CONFERENCE: The Islamic foreign ministers' conference passed a
resolution at its final plenary session calling for the expulsion of Israel from the UN,
UN specialized agencies, and any conference held under UN auspices. Saudi Arabia
and Egypt tried unsuccessfully to bury the issue in a subcommittee to "keep the
Middle East situation under review."
LEBANON: Prime Minister Karami on July 15 won a parliamentary vote of
confidence more quickly and by a wider margin than any Lebanese prime minister in
recent years. This demonstrates the eagerness of the country's normally disputatious
politicians to calm the tense political and security situation in Beirut. The vote does
not reflect special enthusiasm for the substance of Karami's policy statement, which
was unusually brief and commonplace.
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