NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028100010022-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: September 15, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 15, 1975
PORTUGAL: Composition of cabinet
still posing problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
CYPRUS: Turkish Cypriots react to
Greek Cypriots' move in UN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
NATO-FRANCE: France to participate
in arms standardization talks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
SEATO: Philippines seeking to
abolish SEATO and Manila Pact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
ETHIOPIA: Military council
may close US communications
installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 15, 1975
Portuguese Prime Minister - designate Azevedo cleared a major obstacle to the
formation of a new government with the announcement of his program Saturday,
but differences over the composition of the cabinet must still be overcome.
Azevedo announced that Major Melo Antunes would be the new foreign
minister, but that the rest of the cabinet would not be named until early this week.
The principal difficulty seems to be a Communist effort to obtain more
representation than either the Socialists or the Popular Democrats are willing to
permit. The appointment of Antunes, who led the opposition to former prime
minister Goncalves, indicates that some of the Communists' objections have already
been overridden.
The government program announced by Azevedo is in general accord with
previous demands by the Socialist Party. He indicated, for instance, that democratic
pluralism would prevail in the state-controlled media and in labor. Azevedo also
indicated that local elections would be held "within a reasonable period of time"
and guaranteed the functioning of the constituent assembly.
Azevedo left no doubt that the goals of his government would be to advance
toward socialism and to defend those "revolutionary" gains already made. He
promised, however, that this would be done with full respect for democratic
freedoms.
Azevedo also called for the restoration of order and discipline, particularly in
the armed forces. He promised a crackdown on armed civilian groups. He gave lip
service to freeing Portugal from foreign economic domination, but also indicated he
would seek closer economic relations with Western Europe. Naming Antunes as
foreign minister is a step in that direction and an indication that one of the first
moves of the new government will be to seek economic assistance from the EC.
The EC Commission's working group on Portugal is scheduled to resume
meetings today to make technical preparations for the presentation of an aid
package to the EC Council. The Commission is encouraged by recent developments
in Portugal and is hopeful that the EC foreign ministers will be able to agree on a
figure for the aid package at their meeting on October 6 and 7. although it would be
another six months before any funds began to flow.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 15, 1975
Reacting to President Makarios' decision last week to take the Cyprus issue to
the UN General Assembly, Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash has threatened to
declare independence for the Turkish-controlled sector of the island.
After meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Demirel on Saturday, Denktash said
he would ask the Turkish Cypriot constituent assembly for authority to declare
independence. Such a declaration, he said, would be made if he was not given equal
billing with Makarios at the UN and the Greek Cypriots did not agree to resume the
stalled intercommunal talks. Ankara is probably opposed to a declaration of
independence at this time, although press reports quote a senior Turkish official as
saying Turkey would respect a decision of the Turkish Cypriot constituent assembly.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 15, 1975
France has decided to participate in arms standardization talks this fall in the
North Atlantic Council and in a special steering group to be set up at the Council
meeting on September 17.
The steering group will be charged with developing detailed principles for
cooperation in arms standardization, which will be considered at the December
meeting of NATO foreign ministers. While French ambassador to NATO De Rose
has made clear that participation in these initial discussions does not represent a
prior commitment by France to support the NATO effort, he emphasized the
similarity that he found in US and French views on standardization in his June
discussions with secretaries Kissinger and Schlesinger. At the same time, De Rose has
indicated that the degree of actual French participation in arms standardization
remains uncertain and will have to be carefully negotiated.
The composition of the steering committee to be charged with directing the
arms standardization effort has not been decided. The US has suggested that it
include senior representatives from all member nations and various NATO military
officials. France, however, may be thinking of a more limited group of key nations
to act for the Council. Moreover, the French may object to NATO military
authorities participating in the committee because of France's determination to
remain aloof from the military side of NATO.
France, like the other European allies, is also interested in developing a
European entity to carry on a dialogue with the US on such topics as greater
trans-Atlantic cooperation and the armaments flow. Eurogroup-the informal caucus
of the European members of NATO-is now discussing this topic, but France has so
far refused to take part. The Belgians are urging formation of an ad hoc group to
accommodate France, but the major allies want prior assurances that the French
would participate in a serious manner.
Paris' reservations point to the continuing influence of Gaullist views in French
politics. According to the Belgian ambassador to NATO, the French government
may still be undecided about greater involvement in arms standardization. He
believes the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and President Giscard may favor it,
but that Prime Minister Chirac and important defense officials are less enthusiastic.
Giscard's freedom is limited, moreover, because he relies on the Gaullists for his
parliamentary majority. The Belgian-like his colleagues-sees French willingness to
participate in discussions in the North Atlantic Council as an important first step
toward NATO arms standardization. The Europeans appear united in the view,
however, that a strenuous effort conducted at the highest level is necessary to get
France fully behind the arms standardization effort.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 15, 1975
A Philippine bid to abolish not only the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization
(SEATO) but also the underlying Manila Pact of 1954 has complicated planning for
the organization's annual council meeting. The session will be held in New York on
September 24 and attended by the foreign ministers of the member states-the US,
the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, and the Philippines.
In the working group preparing for the council session, the Philippines has
proposed termination of the Manila Pact when SEATO is phased out as a formal
organization in two years. Thailand, however, wishes to retain the Manila Pact
because, unlike the Philippines, Bangkok has no bilateral security treaty with the
US. Prime Minister Khukrit discussed this issue with Marcos in Manila in July and
came away thinking he had Philippine agreement to continuing the pact in force.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Romulo appears to be behind the change in the
Philippine position as part of the Philippine effort to improve Manila's relations with
communist countries. Romulo argues that the pact is outdated and a gratuitous
provocation to the communists. In formulating his proposal, Romulo probably was
encouraged by comments by Australian Foreign Minister Willesee who, like Romulo,
is playing to international audiences in advocating an early end to both SEATO and
the Manila Pact.
The US backs Thailand's interest in extending the pact and the UK will go
along even though SEATO is not one of its major concerns. New Zealand sees
SEATO as outdated but accepts the Thai view, and even the Australian Labor
government, despite its dim view of SEATO and the negative attitude of its foreign
minister, will probably go along with majority sentiment in favor of the Manila Pact.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 15, 1975
The president of Ethiopia's military council, General Teferi Benti, said at a
press conference yesterday that the US communications installation in Asmara, part
of which was severely damaged by Eritrean insurgents over the weekend, would be
closed down by the end of the year. The agreement which covers the installation
cannot be legally terminated before May 1979.
Teferi's statement left some confusion as to whether he meant the facility
would cease to operate or merely operate on a more restricted basis. The remark was
in line with a government statement to the UN last year, however, that the
installation would be shut down-a statement made to promote an Ethiopian image
of nonalignment.
The two Americans and six Ethiopians manning the part of the installation that
was attacked are still missing. Repairs to the site cannot be completed for at least a
month.
however, and unmarred by violence or anti-government demonstrations.
The attack on the US installation was designed to disrupt the anniversary of the
military take-over. The celebration at the capital in Addis Ababa was well attended,
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