CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028100010033-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 11, 2008
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: September 20, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
NSA review completed
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National Intelligence
Bulletin
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Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Azevedo new prime minister;
cabinet largely anti-Communist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
LEBANON: Heavy fighting continued
in Beirut yesterday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
PANAMA: Discouragement in Panama
could endanger canal negotiations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
OPEC : Iranian views
on oil price increase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
INDIA: Verdict delayed on
Gandhi's legal battles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: Increased
surveillance of US targets in Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . 9
FRANCE: Construction of second version of
advanced aircraft indefinitely postponed . . . . . . . . . . . 10
PHILIPPINES: Government shakeup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1975
Admiral Azevedo was sworn in as Portugal's new prime minister last night,
along with a cabinet dominated by anti-Communist military officers and
representatives of the democratic parties.
The new government, the sixth since the military coup last year, includes four
Socialists, two Popular Democrats, and only one Communist-roughly corresponding
to the results of the election last April. The anti-Communist faction of Major
Antunes obtained three of the five positions that went to military officers. Civilian
technocrats hold the three remaining portfolios.
The appointees are, by and large, experienced in government affairs. Seven have
held cabinet rank at one time or another since the military take-over, and three
others have served at the subcabinet level.
Azevedo has described his cabinet as a "government of unity," but the
Socialists will most likely be held responsible for its actions. Although Socialist
Party head Soares stayed out of the cabinet
leading Socialists Zenha and Campinos will occupy the finance an
foreign trade positions, respectively. The Socialists will further increase their
influence by the appointment of former Soares aide Sa Machado to the Prime
Minister's staff.
The Socialists will also benefit by the appointment of their candidates to the
ministries of labor and information, which were hotly contested by the Communists.
Army Captain Tomas Rosa, an Antunes supporter, was appointed to the labor post,
despite his worries earlier this week that a Communist-backed candidate would win
out. Doctor Almeida Santos, an independent but a close personal friend of Soares,
was given the Information Ministry. This ministry will have the difficult task of
carrying out Azevedo's earlier promise to bring "democratic pluralism" to the
Communist-dominated media.
The restructuring of the Revolutionary Council, which was announced late
Thursday night, could result in a freer hand for the cabinet. The Council was
reduced in size to 17 members by eliminating many of former prime minister
Goncalves' pro-Communist supporters. Nine of the 17 are identified with Antunes'
anti-Communist faction; only two are considered to be Communist sympathizers.
The remaining six Council members are more difficult to pin down-such as
President Costa Gomes, Prime Minister Azevedo, and internal security chief
Carvalho.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1975
The anti-Communists control a majority, but unless the Council moves away
from weak compromises and consensus rule, it will be no more effective than its
predecessors. An early test for the restructured Council will be its determination to
re-establish discipline in the Portuguese armed forces.
The Council has already made a play for public support by abolishing the
unpopular press law-passed earlier this month-limiting the information on political
activity in the military that could appear in the media. The law has been attacked
and largely ignored by both the Communist and non-Communist press.
With this shift in the balance of power in the Revolutionary Council and the
government, the Communist Party appears to have been put in a position similar to
that of the Socialists under Goncalves. And, like the Socialists before them, the
Communists could decide later to pull out of the government.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1975
Intense fighting continued in Beirut yesterday and at least 33 persons were
reported killed. All roads into and out of the city remained blocked. The
government has ordered a dusk-to-dawn curfew in the commercial areas of the city,
where damage has been extensive.
The Lebanese army has not yet been brought into the conflict. The less radical
fedayeen organizations, Fatah and Saiqa, have also stayed out. They have continued
to assist Lebanese security authorities.
For the first time in this latest round of fighting, the Syrians are actively
involved in efforts to end the conflict. Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam arrived in
Beirut yesterday to confer with President Franjiyah. Khaddam visited Lebanon in
June to help negotiate an end to the fighting then as well as the appointment of
Rashid Karami as prime minister.
Karami met yesterday with Franjiyah and Interior Minister Shamun in an effort
to prolong his mandate to continue conciliation efforts. Many Christian politicians
and army officers distrust Karami,, whom they consider needlessly conciliatory
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
Expressions of discouragement in Panama over the canal treaty talks could
endanger the negotiations, despite the government's apparent commitment to
continue them.
Remarks this week by Secretary Kissinger and other US officials, including
Ambassador Bunker, have been attacked by the overnment-controlled Panamanian
ress as indicating an unyielding US osition.
The official Foreign Ministry
communique, citing "very little progress" at the conclusion of the current
negotiating round on Wednesday, reflected a marked turnabout from the
considerable optimism Panamanian spokesmen expressed prior to Ambassador
Bunker's arrival.
According to press reports, Torrijos has ordered a "public account of the talks"
published by today, despite the US desire for secrecy. In December 1972, Panama
risked endangering the talks by releasing the then-secret negotiating positions; it
could again take this risk.
At present, Panama will probably seek to continue negotiating and try to rally
public opinion to the government's position. Torrijos almost certainly believes that a
well-orchestrated show of domestic and international public opinion favoring
Panama will induce the US to be more forthcoming. The gradual escalation of his
campaign, however, combined with official disclosures and a more lenient attitude
toward student demonstrations, which have been peaceful so far, carries the danger
not only of stalling the talks but also of unplanned violence.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
The Shah announced in an interview Thursday that Iran would not press for an
OPEC price increase higher than 15 percent. The same day, Iranian Ambassador
Zahedi, guest speaker at a Washington luncheon, stated that his country would
support a modest oil price increase of only 5 to 10 percent. He disassociated Tehran
from "extremists" on the price issue.
These statements, however, may tell only part of the story and probably do not
signify any radical departure from the position heretofore held by Iran. The Shah
has been openly pushing other OPEC members to accede to an increase in the range
of 15 to 20 percent, but privately adopted a fallback position last month. He
indicated Iran would agree to implement the price rise in stages-10 percent in the
fourth quarter of 1975 and an additional jump in early 1976. Iran, however, will not
initiate such an alternative proposal within OPEC.
Zahedi may have surfaced Iran's fallback position in his recent comments. His
speech placing Iran in the camp of the price moderates leads us to suspect that an
OPEC compromise is near. In any case, we see little to cause us to change our
estimate that the OPEC price increase will be in the range of 10 to 15 percent,
perhaps taken in stages.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
A move by the Indian Supreme Court yesterday means that the court is
unlikely to reach decisions on Prime Minister Gandhi's current legal battles for
several more weeks.
The court announced it was broadening the scope of its hearings on the legality
of the constitutional amendment, pushed through Parliament last month, that
nullified Gandhi's conviction by a lower court in June for election law violations in
her 1971 campaign.
The court said it would not rule on the amendment until after it had heard
arguments from lawyers for Gandhi and her opponents on her appeal of the lower
court's verdict and on other legislation enacted last month to protect the Prime
Minister's position. The court's move apparently is designed to let it hold hearings
on all aspects of Gandhi's legal battles before issuing any decisions.
Information available so far on yesterday's action suggests that it does not give
any important advantages to either Gandhi or her opponents. Earlier this week, the
US embassy in New Delhi had reported it was possible-but not likely-that the
Supreme Court would rule against Gandhi by invalidating the amendment. An
adverse ruling probably would not pose any immediate threat to Gandhi's political
position, but it would weaken the chances for any major early relaxation of the
authoritarian controls she imposed in June.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
There are recent indications that various terrorist organizations are increasing
surveillance of US bases and personnel in several countries in Western Europe. The
incidents could be coincidental, but the unusual number of reports could also signify
preparations for a widespread terrorist campaign against Americans.
--In the UK, a person using a special Irish Republican Army authentication
code normally reserved for bomb threats informed a British ministry on
September 14 that the IRA would attempt an attack on an unspecified US
installation. On September 13, security guards at Upper Heyford air base,
where US air force personnel are stationed, noted that the installation was
apparently under surveillance.
--In Belgium, US army military police on September 16 chased an automobile
whose occupants were watching the residence of a high-ranking US officer. The
automobile was later identified as belonging to a member of a Belgian Maoist
organization.
--In Spain, a group of six to eight activists of the Patriotic Anti-fascist
Revolutionary Front-a radical dissident communist group-reportedly has
been keeping tabs on US military personnel assigned to the air base in
Zaragoza.
--In Italy, a high-ranking Italian police official informed a US security officer in
Naples on September 18 of threats of terrorist activity against US, Israeli, and
Egyptian embassies, consulates, commercial firms, and unspecified military
objectives.
Agents belonging to the Palestinian guerrillas and the Japanese Red Army are
active in Europe. The Palestinians oppose the Israeli- Egyptian Sinai accord and the
US role in arranging it. The Japanese Red Army would like to disrupt Emperor
Hirohito's visit to the US, scheduled to begin September 30. Either of these
organizations could arranae for European-based terrorists to conduct simultaneous
anti-US activity.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
The French have indefinitely postponed construction of the second prototype of
the multipurpose aircraft they call the combat airplane of the future, apparently
because of budgetary pressures.
The aircraft was originally designed as a front-line fighter for use in air
intercept, reconnaissance, and air-to-ground strike-attack roles and as a replacement
for the Mirage IV strategic bomber.
A decision to drop production of the strategic penetration version of the
aircraft would mean that no replacement for the Mirage IV is in sight. France would
either have to look elsewhere to replace its Mirage IV aircraft, or the air force would
have to accept a reduced strategic nuclear role.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 20, 1975
President Marcos yesterday announced a sweeping purge of officials and a
reorganization of the government designed to reinvigorate his national development
program.
I n a speech, Marcos said the purged officials had sought personal gain and had
eroded his reform program. Most of the changes involve agency heads and lower
level functionaries who have been with the government since before martial law. The
President resurfaced the populist and revolutionary themes of the early martial law
days, and he stressed the need to carry reform beyond the economic and political
recovery achieved over the past three years.
The civilian shakeup may be followed by a shuffle of top military commanders.
Military corruption has reached embarrassing proportions, and there have been no
changes in the top service positions since before martial law. Both of these factors
have sparked low-level military discontent. The commanders of the air force and
navy and the chief of staff of the armed forces are among those overdue to retire.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1975
TAIWAN: Madame Chiang Kai-shek, the widow of the late Chinese Nationalist
president, arrived in New York yesterday for what has been billed as a "short visit"
for medical treatment. The betting in Taipei, however, is that she will not return to
Taiwan. She has never seen eye-to-eye with Premier Chiang Ching-kuo, Chiang
Kai-shek's oldest son. and she has had little influence on Nationalist political affairs
for nearly a decade.
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