NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028300010016-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: November 10, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 10, 1975
MOROCCO - SPANISH SAHARA: Hassan
orders marchers to return
BANGLADESH: Conditions returning to normal . . . . . . . . . 3
UN: Three Middle East
resolutions up for debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
SPAIN: Communists may
call for general strike . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 10, 1975
King Hassan abruptly canceled his mass march into Spanish Sahara yesterday,
strongly implying that he had the basis of an agreement with Spain for a negotiated
settlement favorable to Morocco.
In a brief speech from Agadir, King Hassan ordered his countrymen to return
to Tarfaya, the closest assembly point in southern Morocco for the march. He said
the march had "accomplished its mission" and hinted that Morocco's claim to the
territory will be resolved through negotiations. It may take a few days for all the
marchers to return, because a second column of marchers crossed the border
Saturday some 50 miles east of the main group..
Hassan stressed his desire for a new era of relations with Spain and praised the
Spanish army for avoiding a confrontation with the marchers.
The King's speech came only 24 hours after he had held talks in Agadir with a
senior Spanish official. Hassan did not reveal any specifics of an understanding or a
framework for future negotiations, but he has too much personal prestige at stake to
back down empty-handed.
The cancellation of the march will defuse tensions in the area and provide a
more conducive atmosphere for further talks with Madrid. At the same time,
however, Hassan will be under growing domestic pressure to demonstrate soon that
progress is being made toward a settlement favorable to Morocco.
Morocco and Spain will still have to overcome or ignore Algerian opposition to
a direct transfer of Spanish Sahara to Morocco and to Mauritania, which also claims
the territory. Hassan pointedly ignored Algeria in his speech; he opposes Algerian
participation in any negotiations on Spanish Sahara. He is unwilling to accept a
referendum on self-determination, as Algiers had demanded, despite Spanish
assurances that the results could be manipulated.
Several hours after the King's speech, the Spanish radio broadcast an editorial
expressing approval of his action ending the march.
Military activity over the weekend appeared to be at a low level, and no clashes
were reported.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 10, 1975
Meanwhile, both Algeria and Spain continued to reinforce their forces,)
F'he US
defense attache and press reports from Madrid indicate that Spanish troops,
including at least two infantry battalions, and equipment were still being moved to
the Spanish Sahara.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 10, 1975
A revolt by enlisted men and noncommissioned officers that erupted in Dacca
on Saturday appears to be easing, and conditions are returning to normal. The revolt
emphasizes the lack of discipline among the troops and the difficulty the new
government faces in imposing its authority on the army.
A resurgence of fighting could easily lead to widespread turmoil and the exodus
of much of Bangladesh's sizable Hindu minority to India. Officials in New Delhi
have indicated in recent months that a flight of refugees into India, such as the
massive influx in 1971, could result in Indian military intervention. So far, it does
not appear that New Delhi has decided to intervene.
The streets of Dacca seem calm, and shops have reopened. The government has
reaffirmed its warning against strikes and demonstrations and has cautioned the
public against spreading rumors.
The origins of the mutiny are obscure; it appears to have developed out of the
confusion surrounding the ouster and killing of General Musharraf on Friday and the
subsequent rise to power of General Zia ur-Rahman. Enlisted men apparently played
a large role in Musharraf's fall, and the government has not fully regained control
over them.
The mutinous elements, including some extreme leftists, took advantage of the
confusion to make demands on their officers for better treatment of enlisted
personnel and for release of some political prisoners. Other troops reportedly settled
old scores with officers. Several officers have allegedly been killed and many others
have been detained.
President Sayem has released some leftist political prisoners who are influential
with the rebellious troops. I
Strongman Zia, who is reported to be popular in the military, has been trying
to assert his authority, but he faces a difficult task imposing discipline. The US
embassy in Dacca reports that the events of the past few days reveal that the officers
have less influence over troops than was generally believed. This situation is
complicated by contention in the officer corps between those who fought in the
1971 war of independence and those who were held in Pakistan until 1973.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 10, 1975
The UN General Assembly today takes up three resolutions on Middle East
issues that could have permanent repercussions on support of the organization's
work.
Concluding its week of debate on the Palestine issue, the Assembly will likely
vote on two resolutions on the rights of the Palestinians. Following those votes, it
will begin its debate on the resolution-passed last month in one of its subsidiary
committees-equating Zionism with racism.
The three resolutions have set off intense debate within the Arab group itself.
A final unified position on the more controversial Palestinian resolution-calling for
PLO participation in any Middle East peace conferences-was reportedly worked out
only on Friday, primarily owing to Algerian Foreign Minister Bouteflika's efforts to
forge a common Arab front. This resolution, originally put forth by Egypt, calls for
the PLO to be invited to participate in any UN-sponsored peace conference on the
Middle East.
The resolution also calls for the Security Council to adopt necessary measures
to enable the Palestinians to exercise their national rights. The Egyptian draft had
not been as explicit in its reference to Palestinian rights.
The second PLO resolution, originally sponsored by Syria, calls for the
establishment of a special committee that would work out a timetable for
implementing last year's resolution affirming the rights of the Palestinian people to a
national homeland and self-determination. It also contains an implicit threat of
Israel's suspension or expulsion from the UN if it obstructs the committee's work.
The resolution equating Zionism with racism, however, goes beyond previous
General Assembly condemnations of Israel. In its politicization of UN activities, the
resolution may lead to further erosion of support for the organization. Most Western
and developed countries are strongly opposed to it, as are those African states that
fear their campaign against racial discrimination and apartheid could be jeopardized
by the linkage with Zionism.
While most countries are hesitant to oppose an Arab-sponsored initiative
openly, a motion to defer a vote on the resolution until next year appears to have
wide support. Chances are good that Sierra Leone might propose such a motion,
6. CIA
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 10, 1975
The Spanish Communist Party, which reportedly had agreed to hold off calling
for any strikes, now has appealed for a general strike through the
Communist-dominated, clandestine Workers Commissions,
The appeal urged "democratic action to mobilize t e
masses." A date for the strike has not been set, but a week to ten days after Franco's
death would be the most likely time.
Most of the non-Communist elements in the clandestine labor groups allegedly
oppose a strike call, indicating that it is likely to fail. Only in Barcelona and Madrid,
where Communist cadre have control over workers in some factories, is there likely
to be a positive response. A strike effort would be likely to provoke police
repression and strengthen the far right.
The strike call may be an effort by the Communists to regain their
revolutionary image. They apparently feel it was tarnished by their participation in
the recent joint declaration of leftist opposition groups, which did not include the
communist dogma rejecting Juan Carlos as king.
A sudden crackdown on the press, meanwhile, is likely to have raised political
tensions. Several weekly magazines that urged reform have been seized, and over the
weekend the editor of Ya, the prestigious Madrid daily, was charged with attacking
the constitution. The charge stemmed from an article published last week urging
changes designed to increase democratic participation after power has passed to Juan
Carlos.
The decision to impose censorship may have been made in the Information
Ministry without consultation with Juan Carlos or his advisers.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 10, 1975
VIETNAM: As expected, the Vietnamese communists yesterday announced
plans for reunifying the country. According to Radio Hanoi, a recently held special
meeting of the National Assembly standing committee called for "rapidly
completing reunification." Saigon and Hanoi, according to the broadcast, will
appoint delegations to a "joint political conference" to draw up plans for new
national assembly elections and new "common" state organs. No exact timetable
was given, however, and the process may not be completed soon.
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