NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028300010020-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: November 12, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin November 12, 1975
The Governor General's dissolution of Parliament and appointment of
opposition leader Malcolm Fraser as caretaker prime minister are designed to resolve
the Australian political crisis by appealing to the electorate. A vitriolic political
campaign, probably the bitterest in Australian history, is likely, with the election
now expected on December 13.
Although Fraser has successfully unseated Whitlam, a tough political struggle is
ahead. Whitlam and his Labor Party will focus their campaign on the question of
constitutional authority in an effort to cloud such issues as government economic
mismanagement and political scandals. By projecting an image that Labor is being
victimized, Whitlam probably hopes to swing the necessary votes for reelection. The
Labor Party is firmly united behind him.
In contrast, Fraser's Liberal - National Country coalition has been tarnished
both by the constitutional crisis and by charges of overly close association with US
officials. It will have difficulty exploiting the deeper domestic issues such as
inflation and unemployment on which it will campaign. The depth of feelings on
both sides could very well erupt in localized civil disorders, possibly including a
general strike.
DIA review(s) completed.
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 12, 1975
An impeachment motion against President Maria Estela Peron, introduced late
last week, is gaining support in congress. The motion charges gross incompetence as
well as large-scale misuse of public funds.
At least three opposition political groupings have already lined up behind the
motion, and the largest, the Radical Civic Union, seems to be moving in that
direction. The parties allied with the Peronists in the governing coalition are said to
favor impeachment, at least unofficially.
Recent schisms within the Peronist party may provoke defections from its
congressional ranks that could ensure the passage of the motion. Late last week the
party formally expelled Buenos Aires Governor Victorio Calabro, a prominent
unionist and spokesman for those Peronists who oppose the President's rule. The US
embassy reports that his ouster could well provide the 20 or so Peronist votes the
measure apparently now lacks.
Peron's recent actions have led some to speculate that she is deliberately
seeking to provoke a military coup and thus achieve a kind of martyrdom. She
remains isolated in her hospital room, taking counsel only from a small clique of
Lopez Rega's followers. At latest report, she was ignoring requests from cabinet
members to meet with the cabinet and discuss government business.
Military leaders, who could at any time remove the President, hesitate to do so
lest they incur widespread popular disaffection as they did two decades ago when
they moved against Juan Peron. Indeed, military spokesmen have reportedly told
influential civilians that they should not expect the armed forces to step in and
provide a solution to the leadership problem. The spokesmen say that they will take
over only if the government completely collapses; they added that if they are forced
to do so they will not soon return power to the civilians.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 12, 1975
The military government has chosen to avoid a possible diplomatic incident
with the US at this time by allowing three US nuns to leave the country after they
had secretly aided wounded Chilean' terrorists. The government has also reportedly
agreed to grant safe conduct to a US priest who was similarly involved.
The terrorists, including the two top leaders of the Movement of the
Revolutionary Left, have sought asylum in two embassies. The chances for
additional diplomatic and political complications remain high, since a British
missionary doctor and a US-born Chilean priest remain in custody on similar
charges; other clergy apparently involved in aiding the terrorists are being sought by
security forces.
Chile's accommodating attitude toward the US nuns probably was designed at
least in part to elicit a US abstention on a pending UN resolution condemning Chile
for alleged human rights abuses. Even though President Pinochet is concerned about
improving Chile's human rights image, he is not likely to extend safe conduct for the
terrorists, especially since the government has announced the discovery of another
alleged plot to attack military leaders and take over the government by force.
Pinochet would like to avoid forcing an open split with the Catholic Church at
this time. Continued actions by either Chilean or foreign clergy to involve
themselves with terrorists, however, even on purely humanitarian grounds, may well
provoke a sterner government response in the future.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 12, 1975
A high-level Moroccan delegation led by Prime Minister Osman went to Madrid
yesterday to negotiate the details of a general understanding on Spanish Sahara.
The inclusion on the delegation of the director of Morocco's national
phosphate company suggests that part of the talks will deal with either joint
exploitation of or compensation for the rich phosphate deposits in northern
Spanish Sahara.
Neither Rabat nor Madrid has commented on the talks now under way. Prime
Minister Osman declined to make a statement on his arrival at the Madrid airport.
Press reports from Madrid suggest that Spanish officials are less optimistic
about achieving a final agreement than are the Moroccans. Spain still wants the UN
to play a role in resolving the Spanish Sahara dispute; Morocco wants to negotiate a
settlement first and then seek the UN's blessing.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 12, 1975
For the second time in two weeks, Turkish General Staff chief Sancar has
exhorted Prime Minister Demirel's fractious coalition government to face up to the
country's pressing domestic and international problems.
The focal point of Sancar's latest expression of concern, on Sunday, was the
epidemic of left-right student violence that has-in less than a month of the new
academic year-once again threatened to close Turkey's major educational
institutions. Several persons have already been killed and classes recessed at some
universities. Sancar implied that the military could not tolerate government inaction
if the violence leads to additional deaths.
There is no evidence at this time to suggest that Sancar's statement should be
construed as anything but a stern warning to the government. There is at least one
sign, however, that the military leadership is becoming increasingly disenchanted
with what it sees as the politicians' penchant for playing politics at the expense of
vital national concerns.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 12, 1975
Moscow's decision to sever relations with Kampala "temporarily" is an obvious
Soviet effort to beat Ugandan President Amin to the diplomatic punch.
The mercurial Amin had threatened to break relations with the USSR unless a
"high-powered emissary" from General Secretary Brezhnev arrived in Kampala by
yesterday with a satisfactory explanation for the pressure the Soviets have put on
Uganda to support the Popular Movement in Angola. Amin had also demanded the
withdrawal of Moscow's ambassador-whom he labeled a criminal-from Kampala.
The Soviets clearly were not about to play Amin's game, despite the fact that
they have been trying to build influence in Uganda since resuming aid in late 1973.
Moscow's reference to the temporary nature of the break suggests its chagrin
over the turn of events and its interest in holding out the prospect of better relations
in the future.
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Lohit
Bengaelag
Areas controlled by:
0 (MPLA) Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola
^ (FNLA) National Front for the Liberation of Angola
A (UNITA) National Union for the Total Independence of Angola
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Carmonam1
SOUTH-WEST AFRICA
si nternational Territory)
200
Teixeira do Sdu`s
'i I/
ZAMBIA
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 12, 1975
The Soviet-backed Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola yesterday
named its leader, Agostinho Neto, president of Angola.
The Neto government quickly received recognition from the USSR, Romania,
Cuba, and several African states with long ties to the Popular Movement. A number
of East European countries have expressed "readiness" to establish diplomatic
relations with the new "People's Republic of Angola."
The Popular Movement's rivals-the National Front for the Liberation of
Angola and the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola-marked
independence and the inauguration of their joint provisional government in
ceremonies at Nova Lisboa, the National Union's headquarters, and at Ambriz, the
National Front's headquarters. The seat of the provisional government will be at
Nova Lisboa, which has been renamed Huambo.
Despite the independence ceremonies, the two rival "governments" quickly
resumed military activites. The Popular Movement dispatched an armor-reinforced
troop column southward to meet an advancing National Front - National Union
force advancing on Luanda. The force is still approximately 350 miles from the
capital.
At Quifangondo the National Front, after almost three weeks, has still not been
able to break through Popular Movement defenses.
In Cabinda, fragmentary information suggests that heavy fighting is taking
place between the Popular Movement and Cabindan liberation forces. The inability
of the Cabindan liberation forces to secure a quick victory in what was supposed to
have been a surprise attack suggests that the Popular Movement may well be holding
the upper hand.
The National Front and the National Union still hope they can win enough
territory to force the Movement to compromise. The Popular Movement is likely to
be less inclined to consider a political accommodation with its rivals, now that it has
Cuban and Soviet recognition.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 12, 1975
Public pronouncements in Israel in recent weeks lamenting its deteriorating
trade situation and sounding the need for further belt-tightening exaggerate the
short-term difficulties.
The government's austerity program, implemented in the summer of 1974, has
achieved its goal of lowering consumption in the civilian sector. The still sizable
current-account deficit is being covered by substantial assistance from the US and
other capital inflows.
Since the austerity program was implemented, the government has devalued the
Israeli pound by 40 percent, cut back non-essential budget outlays, and instituted
wage and tax reforms. As a result of these policies, together with the worldwide
recession, Israel's real gross national product fell 6 percent during the first half of
1975 compared with the same period in 1974, the first such decrease in nine years.
Private per capita consumption, industrial output, and investment all fell.
The consumer price index cooled to a 12-percent annual rate during the first
nine months of the year, compared with 30 percent in the same 1974 period.
Despite the economic downturn, the unemployment rate at midyear was only 3.5
percent compared with 3 percent at yearend 1974. Increased emigration and
frequent military callups have limited the number of workers looking for jobs.
Israel's current-account deficit in 1975, while manageable, is likely to reach a
record $3.7 billion. Exports, hindered by sluggish US and West European demand,
should grow only 5 percent this year.
Israel will import $2 billion in defense goods in 1975, 18 percent above the
1974 level and four times the 1973 prewar rate. At the same time, the economic
slowdown has cut back growth in civilian imports.
The trade deficit is likely to increase by $800 million in 1976 mainly because
of higher military imports. This estimate assumes that non-military consumption will
continue to be curtailed by Tel Aviv's restrictive policies. Civilian imports are likely
to rise only 5 percent. Transfers and capital receipts, including US assistance, will
also increase so that Israel will not need to draw down its foreign exchange reserves.
During recent cabinet-level deliberations on the fiscal 1976 budget, Finance
Minister Rabinowitz took a tough stance on the need for increased austerity
measures. This has led to rumors of more devaluations, reductions in government
services, and new taxes. Major new measures will not be required if the pending US
aid bill is funded at close to requested levels.
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Top Secret
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