NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010024-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: December 13, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
H-Z
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA & DOS review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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 Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin
December 13, 1975
LEBANON: Fighting continues
despite the Muslim holiday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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PORTUGAL-AZORES: A step
closer to autonomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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THAILAND-LAOS: Border
problems continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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BANGLADESH: Government
tightens internal security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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POLAND: Party congress gives
Gierek strong endorsement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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ICELAND-UK: British show some
flexibility in fisheries talks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
BOLIVIA-CHILE: Outlet to
the sea may be offered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 13, 1975
Fighting continued in Beirut yesterday despite the announcement of another
cease-fire and the beginning of a four-day Muslim holiday.
A Lebanese security official said that radical leftist Ibrahim Qulaylat had
agreed to allow government security forces to patrol the hotel district and adjoining
commercial areas. We have no evidence, however, that Qulaylat's followers have
given up any of the territory they seized this week or relaxed their military pressure
on the Phalangists occupying the Holiday Inn.
The Phalangists have respected the cease-fire only to the extent of postponing a
widely expected counterattack on leftist positions. Unidentified forces fired four
mortar rounds into a large Palestinian camp Thursday, thereby raising again the
possibility of wider Palestinian involvement in the fighting.
Leaders of the major commando groups probably do not want to become
heavily involved in the fighting, but feel they must make a display of preparing to
fight as a military precaution and as a means of quieting radicals within their
organizations.
Prime Minister Karami still has been unable to get the politicians to agree on
how to implement the cease-fire or how to form an enlarged cabinet that might be
better able to deal with the crisis. Karami told Ambassador Godley on Thursday that
he is meeting resistance from Socialist leader Jumblatt, Christian leader Shamun, and
Beirut Muslim leader Salam.
The Prime Minister added that he might turn again to the other Arabs to find a
political solution. He said he is considering inviting the foreign ministers of Algeria,
Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait-"two leftists and two rightists"-to mediate the
Lebanese dispute. In Cairo, Arab League Secretary General Riad has announced that
he is contacting member states regarding the Lebanese situation.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975
The Azores have moved a step closer to autonomy with the completion of a
draft constitution providing for a marked degree of self-government.
The draft document-which will have to be approved by the Portuguese
government-calls for a modified parliamentary system consisting of a locally elected
regional assembly and a regional administrative council. If approved, it will give the
islands control of their own political, administrative, and economic life, as well as a
say in foreign affairs.
Until recently, long-standing Azorean hopes for greater autonomy had been
orchestrated into a full-blown independence movement by a group called the
Azorean Liberation Front. Sentiment for independence among the conservative
Azoreans and the fortunes of the liberation front grew in direct proportion to the
rise in Communist influence in Portugal. Recent victories over the Communists and
the far left on the mainland have robbed the independence movement of most of its
momentum, however. Should the pendulum swing too far to the right, or the
Communists begin to reassert themselves, this trend in the Azores could again be
reversed.
Some islanders still believe independence would insulate the Azores against
future political shifts in Lisbon or the spread of economic disorder from the
mainland, but most Azorean leaders reportedly believe increased autonomy is the
wiser course for the time being. This approach also has certain obvious advantages
over independence at this stage:
--Until the new constitution is implemented, the islands will lack the necessary
governmental and administrative structures to support independence.
--Scarce resources and talent do not have to be expended on defense and
foreign affairs establishments.
--Preferential treatment will continue to be accorded to Azorean products in
the Portuguese market.
--Portuguese government subsidies will continue.
--Strong cultural and historical ties with the mainland will not be jeopardized.
Since Lisbon has already acquiesced in a number of the principal features of
the new constitution, its approval without substantial change seems likely. A major
stumbling block to its implementation, however, may arise from traditional
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inter-island rivalries, which already have led to certain anomalies in the document
itself. With no capital designated and with constitutional provisions stipulating that
government departments shall be scattered over the three largest islands,
administering a unified regional government will be difficult, if not impossible.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 13, 1975
Thai police, protecting 500 Lao refugees fleeing into Thailand's Ubon Province,
clashed on December 10 with 20 Pathet Lao soldiers, reportedly killing four of
them. The incident may prompt Thai officials to close more border cross-over
points.
In the fire-fi ht the Thai patrol leader was killed and another oatrol m
was wounded.
he border in Nong Khai Province remains
closed as a result of an incident last month, with the Thai showing no signs of
opening it in the near future.
Prime Minister Khukrit has ordered the Thai National Security Council to
exercise strict control of the Thai-Lao border, including air and naval patrols of the
Mekong River, with instructions to engage Lao units firing on Thai forces. He has
also recently stated his desire to resume friendly relations with the new Lao
government. The animosity and tension concerning the border and territorial rights
are such, however that improved relations are unlikely in the near future.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 13, 1975
The martial law administration in Dacca is continuing to tighten internal
security in an effort to consolidate its position and to forestall new incidents that
could further complicate relations with India. Even though tensions between the
two countries have eased in recent days, New Delhi remains concerned about the
safety of the Hindu minority and of Indian nationals in Bangladesh.
This week Bangladesh President Sayem moved to improve the country's
government apparatus by appointing seven regional martial law administrators. The
government is also continuing to press its campaign to confiscate the sizable number
of arms held throughout the country. Bengalee forces have recently staged security
operations in Dacca, partly in reaction to threats from Qader Siddiqui, a guerrilla
leader who was a staunch supporter of murdered former president Mujib. According
to leaflets circulating in the capital, Siddiqui has called for street fighting this week
and next and has urged people to leave the city.
Bengalee forces reportedly clashed with elements of Siddiqui's group last month
along Bangladesh's northern border. Bengalee officials allege that Siddiqui is
receiving sanctuary and aid from New Delhi. The Indians deny the allegations. The
Bangladesh government is also conducting security operations in a remote part of
southern Bangladesh where other dissidents are said to be hiding.
The increased involvement of Bengalee forces in government-directed security
activities confirms thatthe regime has established, at least for now, basic control over
the military and police services, which were wracked by a series of mutinies in the
wake of the coup and countercoup of early November.
We have no hard evidence of plotting against Zia, but at any
time he could face a challenge from officers seeking to take advantage of the present
delicate balance of power in the military.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 13, 1975
The Polish party congress ended Friday with a strong endorsement of party
leader Gierek and his policies. The few personnel changes at the top strengthen his
control.
Earlier in the day the new Central Committee met and re-elected virtually the
entire leadership. The only casualty was the discredited Franciszek Szlachcic, whose
removal from the Politburo had long been expected. The Politburo was expanded
from 11 to 14 members by the promotion of four of the five candidate-members.
Two new Politburo candidate-members were chosen. Jerzy Lukaszewicz, party
secretary for press and propaganda matters, is regarded by many Poles as having
great potential. Tadeusz Wrzaszczyk, who was appointed head of the planning
commission and a deputy premier earlier this fall, is a strong supporter of Gierek's
efforts to use Western credits and technology to modernize the economy.
The party secretariat was expanded to ten members by the promotion of
Zdzislaw Zandarowski and Ryszard Frelek. The Central Committee was increased
from 115 to 140 members. Approximately one third are serving for the first time.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 13, 1975
In an effort to get the stalled fishing negotiations resumed, British Foreign
Secretary Callaghan showed some flexibility during his talks with Icelandic Foreign
Minister Agustsson on December 11 in Brussels.
Callaghan said that the UK was prepared to reduce its annual catch to a figure
somewhere between the 110,000 tons the British have demanded and the 65,000
tons that Iceland will allow. Callaghan also said that bilateral negotiations could
resume "any time, anywhere, and at any level" if Iceland agrees to stop harassing
British trawlers. In return, Britain would withdraw its warships from Icelandic
waters.
Callaghan also declared that Britain was prepared to accept two basic principles
as a basis for future talks: that the fishing industry is a matter of survival for the
Icelanders and that certain species of fish are in danger of extinction. Agustsson has
relayed Callaghan's offer to the Icelandic government, but said he had no authority
to negotiate. Agustsson also turned down "for the moment" mediation offers that
have been made by NATO Secretary General Luns, West Germany, and Norway.
The British may have to make even more concessions to get the Icelanders to
the negotiating table. Reykjavik has termed its position on the size of the British
catch "non-negotiable," and has also rejected on several occasions British offers to
remove their frigates if Iceland would stop harassing British ships. Continued
incidents at sea, such as the one on December 11 when a British support ship was
caught inside Iceland's territorial limit, will further endanger prospects for an early
settlement.
The protracted dispute is placing strains on Iceland's coalition government. The
Progressive Party, the junior partner in the coalition, has always taken a tougher line
in the fishing dispute than the larger Independence Party, and has attacked Prime
Minister Hallgrimsson for his "moderate" fisheries policy. The coalition is under
stress also because of domestic economic problems, the most immediate being the
current labor negotiations that could create a rift in the coalition. With ties to labor,
the farmer-oriented Progressive Party could find itself at odds with its urban-based
coalition partner.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975
The Chilean government apparently has still not decided how far to go toward
satisfying Bolivia's aspiration for a sovereign outlet to the sea, but Santiago
reportedly is pondering a new offer.
I Ithe Foreign Ministry has recommended to
President Pinochet that Chile give Bolivia a land corridor paralleling the Peruvian
border and including a port site and an airstrip. In return, Bolivia would pay for the
airstrip and give Chile a like amount of Bolivian territory.
Pinochet's military colleagues are likely to oppose the idea. The navy is on
record against the cession of Chilean territory under any circumstances, and there
are divisions within the other services over the correct course to take. Pinochet may
nevertheless urge the services to let him make the offer as a gesture of good faith. He
probably recognizes that pressures are building on Bolivian President Banzer for
some sign of progress in the talks before February-the first anniversary of the joint
decision to resume diplomatic relations and begin the negotiations.
The Peruvians, meanwhile, are not saying anything, apparently content to let
Chile and Bolivia grapple with the problem by themselves for awhile. In any case,
Lima would have serious reservations about any cession of the Peruvian provinces
won by Chile in the War of the Pacific. A 1929 protocol requires Peruvian agreement
to any boundary change.
If Chile does decide to make an offer along the lines of the Foreign Ministry's
recommendation, it will probably do so only after probing informally for reactions
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975
ANGOLA: After a three-day battle, forces of the National Union for the Total
Independence of Angola reportedly have recaptured from the Popular Movement the
important town of Luso on the Benguela railroad. The National Union had been
forced out of Luso earlier this month. Inasmuch as neither side appears capable at
present of mounting a sustained offensive in this sector, the struggle there is likely to
continue on a see-saw basis.
USSR-SOMALIA: Somalia will probably receive two additional OSA-II-class
large guided-missile patrol boats from the Soviets, bringing to three the number in its
inventory. The boats, which are believed armed with four 25-nautical-mile-range
SS-N-2B Styx antiship cruise missiles, are at sea under tow-one in the Aegean Sea
and the other in the Red Sea. The first OSA-II was delivered to Berbera in late
September and is thought to be still in that port.
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