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December 20, 2016
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July 18, 2006
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December 13, 1975
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Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010024-0 Top Secret H-Z National Intelligence Bulletin DIA & DOS review(s) completed. Top Secret 0 9 Approved For Release 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A0284000 b24U 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 LEBANON: Fighting continues despite the Muslim holiday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 PORTUGAL-AZORES: A step closer to autonomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 THAILAND-LAOS: Border problems continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 BANGLADESH: Government tightens internal security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 POLAND: Party congress gives Gierek strong endorsement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 ICELAND-UK: British show some flexibility in fisheries talks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 BOLIVIA-CHILE: Outlet to the sea may be offered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Approved For Release - 0975 A028400010024-0 Approved For Release g National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 Fighting continued in Beirut yesterday despite the announcement of another cease-fire and the beginning of a four-day Muslim holiday. A Lebanese security official said that radical leftist Ibrahim Qulaylat had agreed to allow government security forces to patrol the hotel district and adjoining commercial areas. We have no evidence, however, that Qulaylat's followers have given up any of the territory they seized this week or relaxed their military pressure on the Phalangists occupying the Holiday Inn. The Phalangists have respected the cease-fire only to the extent of postponing a widely expected counterattack on leftist positions. Unidentified forces fired four mortar rounds into a large Palestinian camp Thursday, thereby raising again the possibility of wider Palestinian involvement in the fighting. Leaders of the major commando groups probably do not want to become heavily involved in the fighting, but feel they must make a display of preparing to fight as a military precaution and as a means of quieting radicals within their organizations. Prime Minister Karami still has been unable to get the politicians to agree on how to implement the cease-fire or how to form an enlarged cabinet that might be better able to deal with the crisis. Karami told Ambassador Godley on Thursday that he is meeting resistance from Socialist leader Jumblatt, Christian leader Shamun, and Beirut Muslim leader Salam. The Prime Minister added that he might turn again to the other Arabs to find a political solution. He said he is considering inviting the foreign ministers of Algeria, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait-"two leftists and two rightists"-to mediate the Lebanese dispute. In Cairo, Arab League Secretary General Riad has announced that he is contacting member states regarding the Lebanese situation. Approved For Releas 2007/03/08 - - 0097 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Releas$ 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79fr00975A028400010024-0 National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 The Azores have moved a step closer to autonomy with the completion of a draft constitution providing for a marked degree of self-government. The draft document-which will have to be approved by the Portuguese government-calls for a modified parliamentary system consisting of a locally elected regional assembly and a regional administrative council. If approved, it will give the islands control of their own political, administrative, and economic life, as well as a say in foreign affairs. Until recently, long-standing Azorean hopes for greater autonomy had been orchestrated into a full-blown independence movement by a group called the Azorean Liberation Front. Sentiment for independence among the conservative Azoreans and the fortunes of the liberation front grew in direct proportion to the rise in Communist influence in Portugal. Recent victories over the Communists and the far left on the mainland have robbed the independence movement of most of its momentum, however. Should the pendulum swing too far to the right, or the Communists begin to reassert themselves, this trend in the Azores could again be reversed. Some islanders still believe independence would insulate the Azores against future political shifts in Lisbon or the spread of economic disorder from the mainland, but most Azorean leaders reportedly believe increased autonomy is the wiser course for the time being. This approach also has certain obvious advantages over independence at this stage: --Until the new constitution is implemented, the islands will lack the necessary governmental and administrative structures to support independence. --Scarce resources and talent do not have to be expended on defense and foreign affairs establishments. --Preferential treatment will continue to be accorded to Azorean products in the Portuguese market. --Portuguese government subsidies will continue. --Strong cultural and historical ties with the mainland will not be jeopardized. Since Lisbon has already acquiesced in a number of the principal features of the new constitution, its approval without substantial change seems likely. A major stumbling block to its implementation, however, may arise from traditional 4 Approved For Releas QIA-RDP 975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Releas National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 inter-island rivalries, which already have led to certain anomalies in the document itself. With no capital designated and with constitutional provisions stipulating that government departments shall be scattered over the three largest islands, administering a unified regional government will be difficult, if not impossible. 5 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release 4 National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 Thai police, protecting 500 Lao refugees fleeing into Thailand's Ubon Province, clashed on December 10 with 20 Pathet Lao soldiers, reportedly killing four of them. The incident may prompt Thai officials to close more border cross-over points. In the fire-fi ht the Thai patrol leader was killed and another oatrol m was wounded. he border in Nong Khai Province remains closed as a result of an incident last month, with the Thai showing no signs of opening it in the near future. Prime Minister Khukrit has ordered the Thai National Security Council to exercise strict control of the Thai-Lao border, including air and naval patrols of the Mekong River, with instructions to engage Lao units firing on Thai forces. He has also recently stated his desire to resume friendly relations with the new Lao government. The animosity and tension concerning the border and territorial rights are such, however that improved relations are unlikely in the near future. 7 Approved For Release 75A028400010024-0 Approved For Releas 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T 0975AO28400010024-0 National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 The martial law administration in Dacca is continuing to tighten internal security in an effort to consolidate its position and to forestall new incidents that could further complicate relations with India. Even though tensions between the two countries have eased in recent days, New Delhi remains concerned about the safety of the Hindu minority and of Indian nationals in Bangladesh. This week Bangladesh President Sayem moved to improve the country's government apparatus by appointing seven regional martial law administrators. The government is also continuing to press its campaign to confiscate the sizable number of arms held throughout the country. Bengalee forces have recently staged security operations in Dacca, partly in reaction to threats from Qader Siddiqui, a guerrilla leader who was a staunch supporter of murdered former president Mujib. According to leaflets circulating in the capital, Siddiqui has called for street fighting this week and next and has urged people to leave the city. Bengalee forces reportedly clashed with elements of Siddiqui's group last month along Bangladesh's northern border. Bengalee officials allege that Siddiqui is receiving sanctuary and aid from New Delhi. The Indians deny the allegations. The Bangladesh government is also conducting security operations in a remote part of southern Bangladesh where other dissidents are said to be hiding. The increased involvement of Bengalee forces in government-directed security activities confirms thatthe regime has established, at least for now, basic control over the military and police services, which were wracked by a series of mutinies in the wake of the coup and countercoup of early November. We have no hard evidence of plotting against Zia, but at any time he could face a challenge from officers seeking to take advantage of the present delicate balance of power in the military. 8 Approved For Releas 1 2007/03/08 - - 975AO28400010024-0 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 The Polish party congress ended Friday with a strong endorsement of party leader Gierek and his policies. The few personnel changes at the top strengthen his control. Earlier in the day the new Central Committee met and re-elected virtually the entire leadership. The only casualty was the discredited Franciszek Szlachcic, whose removal from the Politburo had long been expected. The Politburo was expanded from 11 to 14 members by the promotion of four of the five candidate-members. Two new Politburo candidate-members were chosen. Jerzy Lukaszewicz, party secretary for press and propaganda matters, is regarded by many Poles as having great potential. Tadeusz Wrzaszczyk, who was appointed head of the planning commission and a deputy premier earlier this fall, is a strong supporter of Gierek's efforts to use Western credits and technology to modernize the economy. The party secretariat was expanded to ten members by the promotion of Zdzislaw Zandarowski and Ryszard Frelek. The Central Committee was increased from 115 to 140 members. Approximately one third are serving for the first time. 9 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 . CIA_RDR79T0g975A028400010024-0 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Releas National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 In an effort to get the stalled fishing negotiations resumed, British Foreign Secretary Callaghan showed some flexibility during his talks with Icelandic Foreign Minister Agustsson on December 11 in Brussels. Callaghan said that the UK was prepared to reduce its annual catch to a figure somewhere between the 110,000 tons the British have demanded and the 65,000 tons that Iceland will allow. Callaghan also said that bilateral negotiations could resume "any time, anywhere, and at any level" if Iceland agrees to stop harassing British trawlers. In return, Britain would withdraw its warships from Icelandic waters. Callaghan also declared that Britain was prepared to accept two basic principles as a basis for future talks: that the fishing industry is a matter of survival for the Icelanders and that certain species of fish are in danger of extinction. Agustsson has relayed Callaghan's offer to the Icelandic government, but said he had no authority to negotiate. Agustsson also turned down "for the moment" mediation offers that have been made by NATO Secretary General Luns, West Germany, and Norway. The British may have to make even more concessions to get the Icelanders to the negotiating table. Reykjavik has termed its position on the size of the British catch "non-negotiable," and has also rejected on several occasions British offers to remove their frigates if Iceland would stop harassing British ships. Continued incidents at sea, such as the one on December 11 when a British support ship was caught inside Iceland's territorial limit, will further endanger prospects for an early settlement. The protracted dispute is placing strains on Iceland's coalition government. The Progressive Party, the junior partner in the coalition, has always taken a tougher line in the fishing dispute than the larger Independence Party, and has attacked Prime Minister Hallgrimsson for his "moderate" fisheries policy. The coalition is under stress also because of domestic economic problems, the most immediate being the current labor negotiations that could create a rift in the coalition. With ties to labor, the farmer-oriented Progressive Party could find itself at odds with its urban-based coalition partner. 11 Approved For Release - 0975A028400010024-0 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 The Chilean government apparently has still not decided how far to go toward satisfying Bolivia's aspiration for a sovereign outlet to the sea, but Santiago reportedly is pondering a new offer. I Ithe Foreign Ministry has recommended to President Pinochet that Chile give Bolivia a land corridor paralleling the Peruvian border and including a port site and an airstrip. In return, Bolivia would pay for the airstrip and give Chile a like amount of Bolivian territory. Pinochet's military colleagues are likely to oppose the idea. The navy is on record against the cession of Chilean territory under any circumstances, and there are divisions within the other services over the correct course to take. Pinochet may nevertheless urge the services to let him make the offer as a gesture of good faith. He probably recognizes that pressures are building on Bolivian President Banzer for some sign of progress in the talks before February-the first anniversary of the joint decision to resume diplomatic relations and begin the negotiations. The Peruvians, meanwhile, are not saying anything, apparently content to let Chile and Bolivia grapple with the problem by themselves for awhile. In any case, Lima would have serious reservations about any cession of the Peruvian provinces won by Chile in the War of the Pacific. A 1929 protocol requires Peruvian agreement to any boundary change. If Chile does decide to make an offer along the lines of the Foreign Ministry's recommendation, it will probably do so only after probing informally for reactions 13 Approved For Releas - 975AO28400010024-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79T0 975A028400010024-0 25X1 National Intelligence Bulletin December 13, 1975 ANGOLA: After a three-day battle, forces of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola reportedly have recaptured from the Popular Movement the important town of Luso on the Benguela railroad. The National Union had been forced out of Luso earlier this month. Inasmuch as neither side appears capable at present of mounting a sustained offensive in this sector, the struggle there is likely to continue on a see-saw basis. USSR-SOMALIA: Somalia will probably receive two additional OSA-II-class large guided-missile patrol boats from the Soviets, bringing to three the number in its inventory. The boats, which are believed armed with four 25-nautical-mile-range SS-N-2B Styx antiship cruise missiles, are at sea under tow-one in the Aegean Sea and the other in the Red Sea. The first OSA-II was delivered to Berbera in late September and is thought to be still in that port. 14 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010024-0 25X1 25X1 Top Sftrgtd For Release 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28400010024-0