NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028600010006-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2005
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: February 4, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO286000 006- 25X1
ion Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
February 4, 1976
25X1
25X1
8
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0286000 006"$'
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
 Approved For Release
1005106101 0 CIA-RDP7J_
National Intelligence Bulletin
February 4, 1976
25X1
25X1
ALGERIA-MOROCCO: Neither side
disposed to grant concessions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
25X1
ICELAND-UK: Reykjavik proposes
talks for three-month agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
FRANCE: Long-term
defense plan proposed
25X1
CUBA-GUYANA: Cubans may be
delivering petroleum storage equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
ARGENTINA: Two cabinet
ministers replaced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
25X1
Approved For Release - T00975A028600010006-8
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
 Approved For Release +5/06/01 : CIA-RDP79 00975AO28600010006-8 25X1
National Intelligence Bulletin
February 4, 1976
Neither Algiers nor Rabat appears disposed to make major concessions on
Spanish Sahara, despite the continuing Arab mediation attempts and the dispatch of
a UN envoy to the area.
Algeria's party newspaper yesterday welcomed the decision by UN Secretary
General Waldheim-under pressure from Algiers-to send a personal representative to
the area. Waldheim's envoy, Sweden's ambassador to the UN, will leave for Madrid
today and will visit the Saharan territory later in the week. The newspaper held out
little hope of success for the Arab diplomatic effort.
Algeria's preference for a UN role in mediating the dispute with Morocco over
Sahara reflects its disappointment with the lack of support from other Arabs. Libya
and South Yemen are the only Arab states publicly backing Algiers.
The Algerians presumably will push their case for a referendum on
self-determination with the UN envoy. The envoy, however, is expected to limit his
role to a fact-finding mission and not make any specific commitments on
self-determination.
The most persistent of several Arab mediators, Egyptian Vice President
Mubarak, yesterday continued his diplomatic shuttle between Algiers and Rabat.
Press reports from Rabat indicate the Moroccans are insisting on recognition of their
sovereignty over the territory. Rabat maintains it has already consulted the Saharan
people through the territorial assembly.
Algeria, which has rejected the tripartite agreement signed last November
transferring administrative authority from Madrid to Rabat and Nouakchott,
characterizes Morocco's presence in Sahara as totally illegitimate.
According to the press reports from Rabat, Morocco is also insisting on a
withdrawal of "Algerian forces" from several points in Sahara and northern
Mauritania as a condition for accepting mediation of the dispute. Rabat almost
certainly is including the Algerian-backed Polisario guerrillas among the Algerian
forces and demanding their withdrawal, a condition unacceptable to Algiers.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/014 CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
 Approved For Release 2
Nationa
ntelligence Bulletin February 4, 1976
Reykjavik yesterday rejected proposals worked out in London last week for a
solution to the cod war, but offered to reopen discussions for a three-month
agreement.
Icelandic Prime Minister Hallgrimsson was apparently unable to overcome the
objections of cabinet members, mainly in the Progressive Party, who favor making
no concessions to the British. Hallgrimsson has had to put his political future on the
line, and he probably backed off rather than risk a domestic political crisis.
Iceland's proposal to schedule more talks suggests Reykjavik does not want to
reject the British proposals out of hand and thereby provoke renewed
confrontations at sea. London reportedly offered to reduce its annual catch by an
additional 25,000 tons to 85,000 tons during talks last week in London between
Hallgrimsson and British Prime Minister Wilson. Reykjavik is apparently unwilling to
match London's flexibility and has so far refused to budge beyond 65,000 tons.
By proposing a short-term agreement, Iceland may be hoping that the UN Law
of the Sea conference, which will conclude its next session in May-about the same
time that a three-month fishing agreement would expire-will approve a 200-mile
economic zone. Broad international support for the 200-mile concept already exists,
but the British contend that since it has not yet been recognized in a treaty,
Iceland's unilateral declaration is illegal. It is unlikely that this session of the
conference will produce such a treaty.
Reykjavik, meanwhile, has not said whether it will continue to harass British
trawlers during any renewed talks. London must now decide whether to continue
compensating British fishermen for their financial losses because of Icelandic
harassment or to send back its frigates to protect the trawlers. British Foreign
Secretary Callaghan has called the ambassadors of all NATO countries to a meeting
today at which he is expected to announce his decision.
Approved For Release 2005/06/010 CIA-RDP79T00975A028600010006-8
25X1
25X-1
 Approved For Release 2
National Intelligence Bulletin February 4, 1976
Minister of Defense Bourges recently announced that the fourth long-term
defense plan will be submitted to the National Assembly this spring.
The new plan, unlike previous ones, will not be for five years because past
experience has shown the plans were too optimistic and no more than 60 percent of
the goals were achieved. The new plan will span six to nine years but will contain
precise budgetary obligations only for the first three years. At the end of each
three-year period, political and strategic changes will be considered before the next
phase is defined.
The plan's format is apparently a compromise between the government and
certain Gaullists. When the defense budget for 1976 was approved last October, the
government was criticized for its failure to present a new five-year plan. The new
proposal combines the government's desire to keep defense plans flexible and to
satisfy critics who have been calling for a more specific definition of defense goals.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 CIA-RDP79T00975A028600010006-8
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
 Approved For Release 2 05/06/01 : CIA-RDP79 00975A028600010006-8
National Intelligence Bulletin February 4, 1976
A Cuban tanker that docked outside Georgetown, Guyana, for nine days
departed on January 31 after delivering fuel and petroleum storage equipment,
probably for a refueling site.
Last week, a number of fuel tanks with an estimated total capacity of 300,000
gallons were delivered to a Guyanese defense force compound outside Timehri
airport. The jet fuel that was unloaded by the ship reportedly is contaminated.
The tanker is reported to have also delivered arms and ammunition. Such a
delivery would be designed to support Prime Minister Burnham's plans for an
improved defense capability, particularly along Guyanese borders. The construction
of a refueling site at Timehri airport will provide Havana with s olies for Its airlift
to Angola. which has now been temporarily interrupted
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 PCIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2 05/06/01 : CIA-RDP79 00975AO28600010006-8 25X1
National Intelligence Bulletin
February 4, 1976
The dismissal of a prestigious cabinet member yesterday will damage but not
cripple the administration.
President Peron replaced Economy Minister Cafiero-for some time one of the
cabinet's top figures-and Labor Minister Ruckauf. The departure of both had been
rumored since last month's shakeup, in which four members of the eight-man
cabinet were replaced.
All of the changes this year, as well as previous shifts, appear to have been
urged upon the President by the small group of right-wing Peronist loyalists who
advise her. They have repeatedly ousted men whom they dislike personally or who
exercise independent action.
The appointment of Cafiero last summer had been seen at the time as
strengthening the administration. A trained economist with important labor backing,
he was viewed as one of the few who could attempt to administer the eccnomy and
not alienate organized labor.
In recent months, however, Cafiero had evidently come to favor the President's
departure either by extended leave or by resignation; thus he could not long be
tolerated. Indeed he probably was spared in last month's shakeup only because of
his importance and because the administration was seeking to minimize the impact
of the cabinet's revamping by doing it in stages. Cafiero's recent differences over
wage policy with one of Peron's closest aides was the last straw.
Peron at least partly offset the effect of Cafiero's departure by appointing a
distinguished figure-Central Bank chief Emilio Mondelli-in his place. Her choice of
a Buenos Aires unionist to take the top labor post is a less distinguished person.
The military are not likely to be overly perturbed by the latest moves. Last
month they acceded to the dismissal of the man many felt was closest to them,
former interior minister Robledo.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 :1OIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
 Top S'ft d For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8
Top Secret
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO28600010006-8