NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028900010032-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: May 19, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Wednesday May 19,---J376
CI NIDC 76-11SC
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday May 19 1976.
I IThe NID Cable is for the purpose
of informing senior US officials.
Heavy fighting continued in Beirut yesterday; left-
ist and Christian militiamen struggled for territory in the
port area and commercial district. Both sides continue to shell
residential areas and to impede the delivery of food and fuel.
I I In the mountains east of the capital, leftist forces
gained positions from which they can shell the Christian resort
area of Farayya. The leftist advance on Farayya, which is well
within the Christian core area, apparently triggered the renewal
yesterday of a major artillery duel between Christian forces in
Bayt Miri and leftists in Kamal Jumblatt's stronghold at Alayh.
The rift between Damascus and Palestinian leaders
over Syria's recent attacks on Lebanese and Palestinian left-
ists has stalled attempts to work out a new cease-fire agree-
ment. The Lebanese-Palestinian-Syrian truce committee appar-
ently has not met since early last week.
Libyan Prime Minister Jallud's efforts to mediate the
dispute are not likely to amount to much. Jallud's lavish praise
of Syria's role in Lebanon, on the one hand, and his promises
of unlimited aid to the Lebanese left, on the other, underscore
Tripoli's poor understanding of the dispute.
The Syrians seem to have little interest at the mo-
ment in resolving their differences with the Palestinians or in
engineering a new truce. Their reluctance may be the result of
their alleged agreement with the Christians to delay the trans-
fer of power from President Franjiyah to Ilyas Sarkis until Syr-
ian forces in Lebanon are able to eliminate the threat to order
from Lebanese and Palestinian radicals.
Addi i -aLal Syrian troops reportedly moved into Leba- 25X1
non ay.Fi I DIA
in Damascus saw 20 Syrian army trucks u
troops--whom he presumed to be Syrian--heading west on the Da-
mascus-Beirut highway. The number of trucks he saw could accom-
modate about 400 troops.
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The Saudi-Kuwaiti effort to mediate the dispute be-
tween Syria and Egypt at a quadripartite prime ministers' meet-
ing in Riyadh today appears to be off to an inauspicious start.
go any further to reconcile their differences. Both are ap-
proaching the meeting with fundamentally different objectives.
Although Egypt and Syria ceased their propaganda
against each other several days ago, both appear reluctant to
25X1 The Syrians want to raise the second Sinai agreement
as the principal topic of discussion. They want at least an ap-
pearance of change in Egypt's position on the accord as a con-
dition for reconciliation.
25X1
raeli cargoes, that Cairo issue a statement affirming that the
Sinai accord does not constitute non-belligerency, or that it
issue a statement noting that the accord is limited because it
is predicated on further moves toward a peace settlement.
the Syr-
ians may demand that Egypt deny access to the Suez Canal to Is-
25X1 lUnder normal circumstances, the Egyptians would
have little difficulty agreeing to the last two conditions;
each is frequently. acknowledged as part of Egypt's existing pol-
25X1 icy,
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The Egyptians would probably be satisfied for the mo-
ment with a reconciliation with Syria that included only an in-
definite extension of the propaganda truce. Ultimately Cairo
wants a basic change in Syria's attitude toward Egypt--which
will require at least tacit assent to Egypt's adherence to the
Sinai accord. It does not expect this to occur anytime soon.
The meeting will be made still more difficult by the
late addition of foreign ministers from the four countries as
participants. Foreign ministers Fahmi of Egypt and Khaddam of
Syria are long-standing antagonists whose presence is likely
to raise the level of acrimon .
Small groups of guerrillas numbering 5 to 25 are pene-
trating farther into Rhodesia from the Mozambique border, de-
spite more aggressive counterinsurgency operations by Rhodesian
security forces in recent weeks.
I Last weekend rebels blew up gas pumps at Inyazura,
some 80 kilometers (48 miles) from the Mozambique border along
the main rail and road link between Salisbury and Umtali. This
is the first sign of guerrilla activity in the area. The govern-
ment suspended night passenger train service between the capital
and Umtali as a precautionary measure.
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Since the recent highly publicized attacks on Rhode-
sia's rai lines with South Africa and Botswana, the government
has shown a greater concern for security in the southeast,
where it had had few troops or police stationed.
The heaviest action has been in the northeastern bor-
der area, long the center of guerrilla operations.
Rhodesian press accounts indicate that casualties
have increased, but there are still few pitched battles between
the two sides.-Many casualties have been civilians who triggered
land mines planted by the guerrillas and curfew violators shot
by security forces.
The government has announced that its current offen-
sive could last considerably longer than previous operations,
and that mobilization measures announced at the beginning of
the month may continue in effect for some time.
I According to press reports, the call up of white re-
servists is already hitting some small businesses hard. Some
companies have had half their work force mobilized. At present,
most major companies believe they can improvise and operate
without a decline in production. F I
I The Portuguese Communist Party yesterday nominated
its number two official, Octavio Pato, as a candidate for pres-
ident in Portugal's election on June 27. Neither Pato nor two
obscure candidates chosen last week by the far left have any
chance of winning, but along with possible right-wing entries,
they could attract enough votes to force a runoff between the
two leading contenders, Army Chief of Staff Eanes and Prime
Minister Azevedo.
Eanes' announcement on Friday that, if elected, he
win choose Socialist leader Mario Soares as his prime minister
will consolidate his support among members of the Socialist
Party, which polled a plurality in the legislative election
last month.
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I Prime Minister Azevedo does not have the support of
any forma party organization, but he is a popular figure in
Portugal, and his forceful style will make him an attractive
candidate. He reportedly intends to focus heavily on his record
as prime minister, but he will be hampered by his difficulty in
attracting high-level endorsements and by his failure so far to
put together an effective organization. An appeal to members of
the cabinet last week to support his presidential candidacy ap-
parently fell on deaf ears.
The absence of a declared Communist candidate appeared
to assurejAzevedo of a large number of Communist votes in his
bid to stop the more conservative General Eanes. Azevedo, how-
ever, apparently intended to run a strong anti-Communist cam-
paign, and this probably helped party chief Cunhal decide to
put forward Pato.
Azevedo's failure to sound out the political parties
and the military before announcing his candidacy was a serious
tactical error, and some US embassy sources attribute his prob-
lems to the absence of good political advisers. The death of
Azevedo's chief adviser earlier this year is said to have cost
him the support of the Socialist Party.
In contrast, a blue-ribbon election committee is sup-
porting Eanes. It contains leaders of the three major democratic
parties, as well as some of Portugal's most prominent newspaper
editors and columnists.
//Ankara is planning to hold air and naval exer-
cises in the Aegean Sea between June 2 and 5 that will come
within about 11 to 13 kilometers (six to seven nautical miles)
of four Greek islands.//
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the Greeks believe the chances of a confrontation are low, DIA
but they are still concerned about the exercises. The Turks
have said on several previous occasions that they would hold
exercises within the Greek-claimed 10-mile airspace limit, but
no penetrations were reported.//
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/ eports that he 25X1 DIA
has been instructed to take no action against intruding Turk-
ish aircraft but to document carefully any incursions so that
the foreign ministry can protest through di lomatic channels.
I Food shortages in the USSR are leading to reports in
the Western press of civil disturbances.
The French newspaper Le Figaro carried a report on
the subject yesterday. It said Westerners returning from the
southern part of the European USSR report that in Rostov and
Kiev stalls were smashed in the collective farm markets and
windows of several state food shops were broken by Soviet citi-
zens dissatisfied with the small amount of produce on sale.
I Another traveler reported a slowdown by stevedores
unloading ships in the Baltic port of Riga. This story supports
an earlier report, noted in the Daily on May 15, that a Soviet
official had admitted to a Western businessman that a work slow-
down was under way in Riga.
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Government security forces struck hard at anti-govern-
//In Tehran, 11 members of a Marxist group were
killed on Sunday during a police raid on two guerrilla safe-
houses. Four policemen were also killed in the incident and an-
other died later of wounds.//
In the regional capital of Mashed, security forces
cornered two men belonging to the xenophobic Islamic organiza-
tion responsible for several assassinations last year, killing
one and capturing the other. The two were believed responsible
for a recent bombing incident.
More than 50 dissidents have been killed since
January, either by execution or in shootouts with authorities.
//The string of government successes over the
last year has damaged but not destroyed the dissident organiza-
tions. More incidents, particularly bombings, are likely.//
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//Chilean security forces are preparing for trou-
ble during the OAS General Assembly scheduled to convene in
Santiago on June 4.//
There have been no major terrorist incidents since
tough state-of-siege measures were imposed following the coup
in September 1973
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//Security forces have been placed on alert and
police patrols are being reinforced throughout the country.
Guards are being posted around embassies in Santiago to prevent
any rush for political asylum by agitators trying to give sub-
stance to their charges of repression. Prominent prisoners are
being closely guarded to prevent leftists from assassinating
them and blaming the junta.//
The actions by the government may play into the hands
of its critics. It has already arrested a lawyer who has worked
with the Catholic Church on human rights cases and who has met
with visiting US congressmen. This latter fact will almost cer-
tainly be played up in the foreign press as the motivation for
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